I Can’t disagree with his logic.

It's an interesting exercise, but how many civil wars have played out as planned?

The above fellow argues that he expects CW2 to be like CW1, with major military movements and engagements. He posits the idea that the Red States want to re-take the Blue States and to force them back into submission. Why should the Red States want to remain joined with the Blue States?

Should CW2 come about, I doubt it would be anything like what he suggests. I think it’ll be more like Yugoslavia in the 1990s with quasi-civilian militias engaging and seeking retribution on the opposition. The US military would formally stay out of it, but factions within (some non-federalized National Guard and State Guard/Militia) could be used to put down civil disruptions.

Eventually, the various State governments would seek to redraw the map and to let each region control their own destiny, at a new Constitutional Convention. Blue-controlled cities in Red States (Chicago, Denver, Minneapolis, etc.) would have autonomous Free City-State status and would be free to align with the Blue States should their desire, or to go it alone, if so desired.

The below map shows socio-economic distribution within North America, including Canada, of what was termed “The Nine Nations of North America”.

Eh, I'm not sure about using that map to predict how a civil war would go. For starters, I think anyone who begins with the "Empty Quarter" is going to do just fine. Beyond that, I think anyone who tested the proposition would find that the Mexican and Canadian borders are a lot more firmly fixed and important in people's minds than the map would indicate. Finally, can you really see the pink haired old ladies in the pink tip of Florida picking up rifles and fighting a pink corridor open to New England?

Having grown up in Idaho, I certainly would add my own 'snort' to being labeled "The Empty Quarter"....

Sure you gotta call everything something....yet if the very name is in such blatant and erroneous concept, what other errors of commission can I expect of his work?

Years ago I reached saturation on various models of massive sociopolitical changes, that I can no longer even read some otherwise scholarly tome.

And the term "Ecotopia" was quite explored in a novel of similar name, from the late 1970s.

However CW II plays out is likely to be considerably different than the speculative notions I've seen already. Unless this version is truly spectacular.

I think there is a lot of division WITHIN states as well. The large cities in Ohio, Cleveland, Columbus, some of Cincy, Toledo and Dayton are filled with liberals and uninformed voters.

The rural areas of Ohio are a lot more conservative. The Trump signs that were all over the Ohio Countryside during the election cycle proved that.

I am sure that is true elsewhere. Indy is probably the same way, liberal, but Indiana is mostly conservative.

Michael Vlahos, Johns Hopkins, makes a pretty persuasive case that a wide civil conflict is not only inevitable but that we are already in it.

https://player.fm/series/the-j...lahos-jhuworldcrisis

quote:

Originally posted by Aquabird:
I think there is a lot of division WITHIN states as well. The large cities in Ohio, Cleveland, Columbus, some of Cincy, Toledo and Dayton are filled with liberals and uninformed voters.

Definitely. The core of Minnesota liberalism resides in approximately 200 square miles within a state of 87,000 square miles. The liberals are quick to point out that empty land doesn't vote. No, but the core of Minneapolis and St Paul are very isolated from the next nearest liberal population center. Perhaps Milwaukee and Madison in Eastern Wisconsin. Other than that, nothing in the Dakotas or Iowa. That's a lot of open land to cross.

Man, that Empty Quarter is gonna fill up real quick.

I would disagree that most of the population would be left unharmed

I think there is a fair chunk of a specific population that would become immediate targets

I see it more as the leftist urban centers vs the conservative suburban/rural areas, with the latter winning due to how dependent cities are on food, water, electricity, etc. coming from the non-urban areas.

I would argue that we'really already there. We're in the Bleeding Kansas part of the Civil War. The actual beginning of the war that happened 10 years before the beginning. As another poster sad, CW2 will be unlike the OP's author described.

I don't think we would see Republicans raping and pillaging like he seems to think.