I seen a report a few weeks ago that the FBI could not match the bullet that killed Kirk to the rifle they recovered that was supposedly used to kill Kirk. Anyone else see that and know where that stands now?

quote:

Originally posted by lastmanstanding:
I seen a report a few weeks ago that the FBI could not match the bullet that killed Kirk to the rifle they recovered that was supposedly used to kill Kirk. Anyone else see that and know where that stands now?

That came from the defense so I would expect the defense to claim that.

As always, it’s important to know what a term like “can’t match” means.

There was a video right after the announcement that explained what “inconclusive” means, and according to that video, that was the finding. If there aren’t enough individual, i.e., specific characteristics left on the recovered bullet to match it to some degree of certainty to a test bullet, then inconclusive may be the finding. That is different than “not a match” which could be based on individual characteristics, but more commonly on gross features such as the number and size of lands and grooves or the rifling twist rate and direction.

For example, if the tested gun has lands of X width and the twist rate is 1:7 inches whereas the recovered bullet has land width of Y width and the twist rate is 1:12 inches, then a “doesn’t match” finding would be appropriate. Inconclusive would often mean that it’s possible the bullet was fired from the gun in question because the gross characteristics match, but the lack of individual characteristics prevent a “does match” finding.

As I’ve said and will keep saying until proved otherwise, there is no reasonable way that a bullet fired from a 30-06 Springfield rifle would have stopped in the victim’s neck unless it had been slowed in flight somehow. My speculation is that it hit something else first and by pure chance ricocheted into his neck. I also suspect it was only a fragment or at least was badly deformed by the intermediate impact, and which quite possibly could have made an exact match finding impossible.

Based on the report I saw, the recovered gun has not been ruled out as having fired the fatal bullet. Despite what teevee shows might suggest, inconclusive findings in crime lab examinations are very common: "Maybe yes, maybe no; cannot say for certain one way or the other."

Court Documents Reveal Confession Note Hand Written By Alleged Kirk Assassin

In September of 2025, prosecutors in the Charlie Kirk murder case alleged that they had access to a hand-written note left by prime suspect Tyler Robinson for his trans boyfriend which contained a confession to the crime. Tyler Robinson, 22, left a note under a keyboard for his roommate/romantic partner to discover, said Utah County Attorney Jeffrey Gray.

According to Mr Gray, the note said: "I had the opportunity to take out Charlie Kirk, and I'm going to take it."

Newly unsealed court documents now reveal that this letter does indeed exist.

An affidavit for a search warrant outlined a letter that Tyler Robinson allegedly wrote before Charlie Kirk's assassination. Robinson is accused of shooting and killing the conservative political activist on September 10, 2025, at Utah Valley University.

Detectives seized ammunition, computers, a DNA sample, and a copy of a note that Robinson allegedly left for his roommate, with whom he had a romantic relationship. The affidavit states that an FBI agent met with Robinson's partner, Lance Twiggs, whom Robinson sometimes referred to as "Luna."

Twiggs showed the agent text messages between the two, which investigators photographed. In one of the messages, Robinson instructed Twiggs to "drop what you are doing" and "look under my keyboard." Twiggs told investigators he found the following handwritten letter:

"Luna, If you are reading this per my text, then I am so sorry. I left the house this morning on a mission, and set an auto text. I am likely dead, or facing a lengthy prison sentence. I had the opportunity to take out Charlie Kirk, and I took it. I don’t know if I will/have succeeded, but I had hoped to make it home to you. I wish we could have lived in a world where this did not feel necessary. I wish I could have stayed for you and lived our lives together. I lack the words to express how much I love you, and how very much you mean to me. Please try and find joy in this life. I love you, always, -Tyler."

Twiggs took a photo of the note, which he gave to investigators. The original had been partially burned according to reports, but was recovered and pieced together by forensics. With the existence of this hand-written letter now confirmed, and with Tyler Robinson's family and romantic partner scheduled to take the stand as witnesses for the prosecution in a preliminary hearing, the case against the suspect is becoming substantial.

This outcome should not be surprising given that Robinson's arrest report indicates he admitted to his parents that he committed the shooting of Charlie Kirk after they recognized him in surveillance photos.

After being confronted by his father, he reportedly confessed, and his parents arranged for Tyler to turn himself in.

Conspiracy theories have been swirling ever since the assassination of Charlie Kirk, with narratives ranging from Israeli ninjas trained by Mossad to Kirk's own security team being involved.

All of them seem to ignore the basic facts of the case including Robinson's own admissions to his family.

A recent article by The Daily Mail also added confusion when they reported that the bullet recovered from the crime scene "did not match" the rifle allegedly used by Tyler Robinson.

In reality, the bullet was fragmented and the tool marks damaged, making it impossible to match to any rifle, let alone Tyler Robinson's rifle.

This kind of bullet damage and "inconclusive matches" occur in up to 50% of shooting cases.

It is extremely common; in no way does the bullet data represent evidence that gun is not a match.

As the trial moves forward it is likely that more evidence will accumulate that the public was not aware of, which means people jumping to extraordinary conclusions might be made to look foolish when the trial is over.

Better to wait until all the facts are available.

https://www.zerohedge.com/poli...lleged-kirk-assassin

^^^^^^
https://sigforum.com/eve/forum...260072025#4260072025

Not such a lengthy post as yours, but it had a link to the article. It resurrected the thread.

Another prediction I’ll make is that if the recovered bullet or fragment was determined to have hit something else before striking the victim, that will become the defense: “He didn’t mean to kill Mr. Kirk. He was just trying to make a statement and didn’t aim directly at him. It was only mischance that caused the fatal wound, not a deliberate act intended to kill him.”

Yeah, yeah, BS I know, but a legal defense can and will claim anything in an attempt to at least lessen a penalty.

I expect the defense to try anything and everything possible to get an acquittal. I also expect the judge and jury to not be fools.

quote:

Originally posted by darthfuster:
I also expect the judge and jury to not be fools.

That's a pretty big ask these days.

quote:

Originally posted by lastmanstanding:
That's a pretty big ask these days.

As it was in the beginning, is now, and (probably) ever shall be—until our robot masters take over running the judicial system, and maybe not even then.

What we should hope for is a competent prosecution, and not have it be run by someone whose main motive is to become famous by prosecuting a famous case.

And I am not predicting that such a defense would be successful, only that it will be tried if the bullet evidence shows that it hit something else before striking the victim.

We don’t of course know all the evidence in the case, but based on what is known, the killer could be facing the death penalty, and anything that would make that even a little less likely would probably be attempted by the defense.

Added:
According to what I can find on the Internet this morning, it’s being reported that it was a “fragment” that was recovered from the victim. If true, that supports my own belief that the bullet hit something before striking Kirk.

“But couldn’t a ‘fragment’ refer to an expanded hunting bullet that lost part of its core and jacket on impact?”

Yes, if we want to define fragment that way, but there would be two problems with that argument.

First is the idea that an intact and undamaged 0.308 caliber bullet hit the victim in the neck, expanded enough to lose part of the jacket and core, and was stopped to remain in place in that small amount of flesh and bone. That is … unlikely.

Second, although admittedly less certain, such a bullet would much more likely have retained enough individual markings to permit a conclusive “match/no match” finding.

It is also reported that the killer’s defense team is already claiming that the “inconclusive” finding by the ATF (not the FBI) means that the charges against the killer are unproved. Which of course is exactly what defense attorneys are expected to do.