DOn't know if this is based in reality or not, but it's worrying for sure. The author is a conservative candidate for Congress (TX14 (Galveston, Beaumont, etc).

LINK

To date, five congressmen from Texas have resigned instead of seeking re-election in 2020. Their resignations signal two things from GOP leadership. The first is the realization that Texas is now lost. The second is that this loss is due entirely to the changing demographics resulting from legal and illegal immigration.

The five congressmen that have resigned are Bill Flores (17th), Will Hurd (23rd), Pete Olson (22nd), Kenny Marchant (24th), and Mike Conaway (11th). Of these five, Congressman Conaway is unique in that his district will likely remain red for some time. He has not faced an opponent in numerous election cycles.

Congressman Hurd’s district 23 has always been very competitive with the victors winning the general elections by an average of about 1% in the last three elections. The district follows the border with Mexico, and it is a bit surprising that Republicans have been able to get elected at all considering it is 24% white and 69% Hispanic.

In 2012 and 2016, the Republican in district 23 was able to outspend opponents by a margin of 2 to 1. In 2018, the Democrats actually outspent the Republicans in that district by a slight margin of 6 to 5. The fact that the Republican was the incumbent was likely the sole deciding factor in the Republican victory. With that same Democratic candidate already raising close to $600,000 for 2020, the GOP leadership saw this district as not worth the $5 million they spent in 2018. District 23 is now permanently blue.

Districts 17, 22, and 24 follow the pattern already seen in district 23. With massive numbers of legal and illegal migrants, the demographics of those districts has caused a gradual and undeniable shift from Republican to Democrat. For the election cycles in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018, the Republicans have won district 17 with percentages of 80%, 65%, 61%, and 57%. District 22 has been won with percentages of 64%, 67%, 60%, 51%. District 24 has been won with percentages of 61%, 65%, 56%, and 51%.

These declining percentages mirror the demographic changes: district 17 is now 56% white and 26% Hispanic; district 22 is 42% white and 25% Hispanic; and district 24 is 50% white and 24% Hispanic. This makeup represents a tipping point where the base of the Republican party is simply outnumbered due to migrants that have entered the country recently or are coming of age to vote.

Looking at the financial data paints an even bleaker picture for Republicans. In district 24, there has been no serious effort by Democrats, and they have been outspent by a margin of 10:1 with the best Democratic effort mustering only $100,000 in 2018.

In district 22, the only serious effort from Democrats came in 2018 where they spent $1.5 million compared to the incumbent Republican’s $1.9 million - and they nearly won. Mirroring district 23, that same Democratic candidate from 2018 has already raised close to $400,000 for 2020.

District 17 has shown similar numbers with no candidate on the Democratic side raising more than $85,000 compared to Republican spending of $1.3 million.

This tells us two things. The first is that serious candidates on the Democratic side can not only challenge Republicans such as Congressman Olson or Congressman Hurd, they can win. Make no mistake, had Congressman Olson and Congressman Hurd not resigned, they would have lost in 2020 (baring some Trump surge).

The second is that Republican share of the vote is steadily shrinking despite the lack of spending by Democrats and massive spending by Republicans.

As noted, the reason for this is simple: demographics. For decades, the Republicans have told their voters that they were going to clamp down on illegal immigration and address the legal immigration policies that have facilitated this takeover. They have made excuse after excuse for not fulfilling those promises and now that lack of action is turning Texas blue one district at a time.

It won’t stop with these districts. District 14 in Texas is to the south of district 22. It is currently 52% white and 25% Latino. Just as in other districts, Congressman Weber has seen no serious effort from Democrats since taking office. This will soon change.

Districts 22 and 23 will turn blue in 2020 and/or 2022. Districts 14, 27, and 10 will follow suit by 2026. After this, the dominoes will fall one by one.

What is truly stunning about this situation is that many of these same congressman, whose party is being replaced in Texas due solely to immigration, are actually voting for increased immigration. Congressmen Hurd, Olson, Flores, and Randy Weber all voted for HR 1044 - a bill to import almost unlimited amounts of H1B tech visa workers from India and Pakistan.

At the statewide level, it is possible for incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn to win reelection to a final term in 2020, but if a good Democratic candidate emerges it will be a toss-up. After that, Senator Cruz will have a tough road to get reelected in 2024. In the unlikely event that he is successful, he will be the last Republican Senator from Texas.

Make no mistake, the GOP’s time is Texas is limited to well under a decade. The truly painful aspect of this is that had the elected Republicans carried through on their pledges on immigration, their hold on the state would be guaranteed for a generation.

Unfortunately the same thing is going on here in Georgia. Not the 2020 election but possibly in 2024 Georgia will go blue. To say it’s sad is a terrible understatement.

Will Hurd was a POS RINO SOB anyway. He’s really no loss.

I live in Pete Olson's district (TX22). The piece mentioned white vs hispanic demographics, but that's not the whole story. Much of the influx here in certain suburbs of Houston is Indian and Middle Eastern. For the past 2 cycles, Sri Preston Kulkarni has run against Pete Olson. He came within 5 points in 2018, and just may win this time since Pete is retiring.

I see the writing on the walls myself, and will be moving away from here when I am able to do so. Fort Bend County is rapidly becoming blue, and it looks like I'm in a foreign country when I go to Costco. Sad, but this is what unbridled immigration looks like.

I can believe it.

Austin is already becoming a mini San Francisco. We really a wall extending from Washington to California to keep those that ruined major west coast cities from doing the same in my home state (although it may be too late). I’d rather see immigration to a Texas from Mexico than from California or Oregon - the Mexicans work harder and whine less, at least in my experience.

Just stop with the negative shit - not happening.

quote:

Originally posted by smschulz:
Just stop with the negative shit - not happening.

Putting your fingers in your ears, stomping your feet, and shouting "LALALA I CANT HEAR YOU LALALA" isn't going to stop this. Its pretty clear that it is happening due to a large number of factors related to influx of various other demographics into the state. Denying reality may make you feel better now, but not in a few years when this really does happen.

quote:

Originally posted by dwd1985:

quote:

Originally posted by smschulz:
Just stop with the negative shit - not happening.

Putting your fingers in your ears, stomping your feet, and shouting "LALALA I CANT HEAR YOU LALALA" isn't going to stop this. Its pretty clear that it is happening due to a large number of factors related to influx of various other demographics. Denying reality may make you feel better now, but not in a few years when this really does happen.

Yeah, calling the sky is falling all the God Damn time doesn't make it true either.
Maybe we should just spout off Trump will lose and Guns are going to be banned too.

I have been hearing about the slow but steady march of the Hispanic population numbers upwards in this state since I can remember. And it is all happening just as was predicted all those years ago.

This threat is real. But it's not time to give up, not by a long shot. There are conservative Hispanics out there, especially in this state. Not nearly as many of the free-sh*t variety as some assume.

quote:

Originally posted by smschulz:

quote:

Originally posted by dwd1985:

quote:

Originally posted by smschulz:
Just stop with the negative shit - not happening.

Putting your fingers in your ears, stomping your feet, and shouting "LALALA I CANT HEAR YOU LALALA" isn't going to stop this. Its pretty clear that it is happening due to a large number of factors related to influx of various other demographics. Denying reality may make you feel better now, but not in a few years when this really does happen.

Yeah, calling the sky is falling all the God Damn time doesn't make it true either.
Maybe we should just spout off Trump will lose and Guns are going to be banned too.

No one is denying you the right to live in a dream world. But the rest of us are here in reality, and can look at historical voter data that shows an increase of democrat votes every election in the state. Between 2004-2016, democrats votes in the states for Presidential elections increased 5%, leaving the 2016 election at 43.2% dem voters and 52.2% republican. If that trend continues, in another 10 years a 5% increase would put democrat votes at 48.2% while decreasing republican vote percentages to 47.2%. The math isn't hard.

quote:

many of these same congressman, whose party is being replaced in Texas due solely to immigration, are actually voting for increased immigration. Congressmen Hurd, Olson, Flores, and Randy Weber all voted for HR 1044 - a bill to import almost unlimited amounts of H1B tech visa workers from India and Pakistan.

I don't get this statement. H1B is guest worker visa for highly skilled labor. It does not allow the guest to vote, nor it is related to the naturalization process.

quote:

Originally posted by smschulz:

Yeah, calling the sky is falling all the God Damn time doesn't make it true either.
Maybe we should just spout off Trump will lose and Guns are going to be banned too.

Then you should look at the data before you start rolling your eyes. No one said anything about the upcoming elections or guns so stop with the hyperbole.

Both of those states have trends showing both districts and states turning more red.

https://www.politico.com/elect...esults/2018/georgia/

Georgia lost the 6th which has been historically Republican and was a very conservative suburb of Atlanta.

With The lefts constant drum beat of socialism, and what they want to take away from people, and force their ways on others, they might not be as popular as they think.

quote:

Originally posted by smschulz:

quote:

Originally posted by dwd1985:

quote:

Originally posted by smschulz:
Just stop with the negative shit - not happening.

Putting your fingers in your ears, stomping your feet, and shouting "LALALA I CANT HEAR YOU LALALA" isn't going to stop this. Its pretty clear that it is happening due to a large number of factors related to influx of various other demographics. Denying reality may make you feel better now, but not in a few years when this really does happen.

Yeah, calling the sky is falling all the God Damn time doesn't make it true either.
Maybe we should just spout off Trump will lose and Guns are going to be banned too.

Some of you guys are in denial. This is not about Trump and guns. It’s state politics. States with low taxes and a healthy economies attract retirees and workers looking for employment. These people are escaping Democrat strongholds. Unfortunately, they don’t leave behind the ideology that created the mess they’re trying to escape. Florida and Arizona are barely red. New Mexico was lost years ago. Texas is next. Massachusetts ruined Maine and New Hampshire.

Hey, the world is going to end in twelve (now eleven) years anyway - so what difference does it make?

I can see it happening and I’m not being negative, it’s just a real possibility. The influx of Mexicans doesn’t concern me half as much as the invading Californians, liberal Yankees and third world foreigners.

Same thing happened in Colorado with the influx of hip dips in the 70's and 80's. Who would have ever thought CO would be a Liberal haven?

They ruin their home states with their idiotic liberal policies, then move to another state to do it all over again.

I hope the Texans don't allow it. HOW I have no idea.

quote:

I don't get this statement. H1B is guest worker visa for highly skilled labor. It does not allow the guest to vote, nor it is related to the naturalization process.

agreed, but that doesn't mean they don't vote

the problem is rampant illegal invasion tipping the scales - thats the reason the GDC are making inroads

"As demography goes, so goes destiny".

Over the years I've read a number of comments from some of our Texas members who smugly chided other states for their Progressive Leftist Democrat controlled legislatures and representatives while holding the attitude that it would never happen in Texas. Many other states had the same thinking "it will never happen here"...until it did.

I've been quietly and politely trying to point out to some of our Texas members that their confidence that it would never happen in Texas might be misplaced.

Democrats targeted Texas several election cycles ago because Texas is a game changer, for both parties.

While I completely agree that shifting demographics in Texas are having a huge influence on their districts, it is only one of the complex factors changing Texas from Red To Blue.

The Colorado Model, was at the time a new creative Democrat political organization and fund raising network, was so successful in turning Colorado from Red to Blue and in such a short time, that it was deemed so spectacularly successful by Democrats that they exported the same model, under different names, to different states...including Texas.

A link to a discussion I started a while back discussing the Colorado Model that was exported to Texas. There is a documentary about it called Rocky Mountain Heist that I've linked to in that thread.


Rocky Mountain Heist: The Colorado Model-and why other states should be concerned

quote:

Originally posted by PD:
Some of you guys are in denial. This is not about Trump and guns. It’s state politics. States with low taxes and a healthy economies attract retirees and workers looking for employment. These people are escaping Democrat strongholds. Unfortunately, they don’t leave behind the ideology that created the mess they’re trying to escape. Florida and Arizona are barely red. New Mexico was lost years ago. Texas is next. Massachusetts ruined Maine and New Hampshire.

I mostly agree with your comments but, like it or not, the issues of guns and President Trump have entered state politics and there has been a backlash. Both due to his own actions as well as the dominant liberal establishment of mass media and their portrayal of him, he has become as divisive and polarizing a political candidate as President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and today's voters react to this both at the state level as well as the national level.