The general market is down but due to oil prices there are some stocks that are up. My LYB and EOM have done ok. I bought Venture Global (VG) a few months ago and that has done extraordinarily well. Should have bought LNG but did not.

With oil expected to go much higher, what are some gambles that might pay off if oil soars over $150?

I'm looking into TPL, and also INFL, which has TPL in its portfolio. TPL had some wonderful years during volatility, but some pretty bad years during calm.

That VG looks like that's where it's at, right now!

quote:

Originally posted by L90814:
I'm looking into TPL, and also INFL, which has TPL in its portfolio. TPL had some wonderful years during volatility, but some pretty bad years during calm.

That VG looks like that's where it's at, right now!

TPL sounds familiar, I think I had some of that a couple years ago but sold it.

BWET was another I was looking at, it has already shot up but if oil goes over 150 it could keep going up. Of course it will probably drop just as fast too.

I can’t help you because I leave it to my financial guy. Year-on-year he always does good.

I heard someone mention DBA the other day. Could be a good play as fertilizer and food prices go up.

I will be looking to scale back into metals and miners shortly as we are probably nearing a bottom on those. GLD, GDX, GDXJ, SLV, SILJ, AEM, HL, PAAS, NEM, etc.

I'm down $450 year to date in my 401k. My employer's stock (integrated oil & gas company) is at record high which is making up for the S&P 500 Index losses, Dow Jones US completion Total Stock Market Index losses, and Total Bond Market Index.

The problem is my employer's stock was a good buy in January, but IMO it's not a good buy now.

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:
With oil expected to go much higher, what are some gambles that might pay off if oil soars over $150?

You could go long and bet oil futures at $150

DISCLAIMER: I'm not an investment advisor

Gambling either oil up or oil down seems very high risk right now. A better gamble is inflation will be up, and/or we are in a recession by the end of the year. S&P down this year seems likely.

Any event or announcement could send oil up or send it down.

quote:

Originally posted by Pipe Smoker:
I can’t help you because I leave it to my financial guy. Year-on-year he always does good.

^^^What he said.

quote:

Originally posted by Fly-Sig:
Gambling either oil up or oil down seems very high risk right now.

At the beginning of March, WTI closed on a Friday in the low 90s and the news did gloom and doom (i.e. no tankers moving and no end in sight) all weekend. Monday morning, I saw a tweet where a guy had taken a $16M long position that WTI was going up and mid-morning Monday he was bragging about oil being up $28. Turned out the tankers merely turned off AIS and moved. By Tuesday afternoon, WTI was $7 lower than Friday and the guy with the long position had lost his entire $16M.

quote:

Originally posted by Fly-Sig:
Gambling either oil up or oil down seems very high risk right now. A better gamble is inflation will be up, and/or we are in a recession by the end of the year. S&P down this year seems likely.

Any event or announcement could send oil up or send it down.

What news source are you getting this from? Trump has alreasy gone on record as saying our economy has never been stronger.

Buying SPY.

As a blast from the past, JALLEN frequently recommended the REIT Stock O (Realty Income). It appears to be undervalued currently.

Snapshot from Gemini AI on valuation:

quote:

Originally posted by Carpentermaass84:

What news source are you getting this from? Trump has alreasy gone on record as saying our economy has never been stronger.

And the Dems (to include the vast majority of the media) are saying the economy has been a disaster from the moment Trump took office, yet was incredibly great while Biden was in office. Both sides are playing politics.

The economic data over the last couple of years points to rising inflation. The 10 year Treasury yield has risen, indicating a market expectation of inflation. Jobs data is a bit mixed but is certainly not robust. Lots of indicators such as rising consumer debt and defaults on debt. The stock market anticipates the future, and we see a lot of negative news from the big players.

Oil prices and the reduction in oil deliveries even in the short term will have ripple effects. Some will be inflation, some will be impacts on other industries.

In addition there are the already existing systemic problems of government debt and de-dollarization of the global economy.

Thanks for the input everyone, I only gamble with what I can lose and not hurt me. So far I am still up despite the down market. There is always money to be made whether the market is up or down.

I know a lot of people have others manage their money, but the trade off of paying someone else for lower returns than I am getting myself does not make sense.

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
Buying SPY.

I did that a few years ago and in one way have regretted it ever since. You won't get your 1099 for funds that include them until about mid-March

Not going to touch my little/modest TSP (Currently set equal thirds: F,G,C)

pretty much same for my 401k: ~2/3rds are large blend and 1/3 is S&P index fund. Smart long term move may be steer 100% of new contributions, but I likely will not

I have a TINY little brokerage account, just scored $34 dividend from SCHD! That's going right back in.

Finally, NANC is letting me down (-7%), she must be doing some real dark magic NANC index fund

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
Buying SPY.

Same. Doing nothing different when the market is up or down. Dollar cost averaging for the long-haul win.

quote:

Originally posted by stiab:

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
Buying SPY.

I did that a few years ago and in one way have regretted it ever since. You won't get your 1099 for funds that include them until about mid-March

Must depend on your brokerage. Schwab gets theirs out mid Feb (Feb 13 this year) and all of our accounts there have SPY.

SPY is a good, low cost ETF tracking the S&P 500.

I buy SPY in my brokerage account so no issue with 1099s. I just noticed Vaguard has an S&P 500 ETF, VOO, which has an expense ratio that's 1/3 of SPY. I'm going to have to look at that.

The only place I buy mutual funds anymore is the 529 investment plans for my kids as ETFs aren't an option. The Utah 529 plan has Vanguard funds, so it should be no surprise I bought their S&P 500 index fund. A side benefit is we get the institutional expense ratio.

I have bond funds and money market funds in the 529 plans as well to hold whatever cash I think we'll need for the next few years to pay college expenses and weather the ups and downs of the market. Had to set up a seperate account for that because you can't pick and choose which funds within an account you draw cash from.

The other ETF I like is MDY because 80% of it's value isn't tied to 20 stocks.