quote:

Originally posted by Scoutmaster:

quote:

Originally posted by 46and2:
3.5

We have a ways to go before we're done with the liberty phase. Obviously, each phase has some elements of the others, and there are many messed up things happening these days, but just the same - we're nowhere near stages 8 or so.

If/when we are hit with a debt/unfunded liability tsunami, #8 and #9 could hit quite quickly. I hope you are correct, but think you are wrong.

The actual unfunded liabilities of this country are about 220 TRILLION ALREADY

Based on that list - I'd say 8 or 9.

I've certainly seen this list before and would say it has about the same predictive value as the Doomsday Clock they used to have stuck at 3 minutes to midnight throughout most of my youth and Al Gore's climate assessments.

'Bout treefiddy.

quote:

Originally posted by MNSIG:
I've certainly seen this list before and would say it has about the same predictive value as the Doomsday Clock they used to have stuck at 3 minutes to midnight throughout most of my youth and Al Gore's climate assessments.

The list indicates the cycle of past civilizations, not the calendar of that cycle. If you believe we will always be a nation of abundance, peace, prosperity, I hope you are correct.

quote:

Originally posted by Scoutmaster:The list indicates the cycle of past civilizations, not the calendar of that cycle. If you believe we will always be a nation of abundance, peace, prosperity, I hope you are correct.

It's doubtful we will. However, retrospective studies tend to find ways to pigeon hole events into the paradigm that fits. I really question the assertion that those stages are one directional. There was a quote in the article bemoaning the state of apathy in 1922, which would imply that we were already at 7-8. WWII and "The Greatest Generation" are often celebrated as the height of American ascendency. Not really consistent with the notion we were already so far along in our decay.

quote:

The list indicates the cycle of past civilizations, not the calendar of that cycle.

Right.
Sure, I also agree with MNSIG that it has no predictive value as to the time frame.

But.... there is an identifiable pattern.
We are a country founded on the protection of INDIVIDUAL LIBERTY.
As we add entitlements and debt we leave behind the rugged individualism that made us strong. We are approaching dependency, maybe not all of us, but enough of us that it has led us to unsustainable debt.

$20 trillion dollars: It's all good.... until it's not.

The real story behind America’s new $20 trillion debt:
https://sigforum.com/eve/forums...0601935/m/3210072034

6-7.

Makes me want to move to Switzerland.

quote:

Originally posted by Russ59:
6-7.

Makes me want to move to Switzerland.

Mandatory health insurance, subsidized college education, four official languages.

Aren't those several of the very things some are convinced have brought (or will bring us) to 8-9?

The article you linked from HighExistence.com seemed familiar, and is an unattributed plagiarism of an article from commensensegovernment.com written by John Eberhard on 3/14/09. See The Tytler Cycle Revisited

I remember reading about this cycle back in college. The philosopher was a Scott named Alexander Tytler, and he identified these nine stages of modern societies back in 1787, two years before this country's founding.

HighExistence should have at least identified Alexander Tytler as the originator of the theory, and should have attributed the verbatim lifting of paragraphs from John Eberhard's piece. This is the problem with the WWW, IMO.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

quote:

The list indicates the cycle of past civilizations, not the calendar of that cycle.

Right.
Sure, I also agree with MNSIG that it has no predictive value as to the time frame.

But.... there is an identifiable pattern.
We are a country founded on the protection of INDIVIDUAL LIBERTY.
As we add entitlements and debt we leave behind the rugged individualism that made us strong. We are approaching dependency, maybe not all of us, but enough of us that it has led us to unsustainable debt.

$20 trillion dollars: It's all good.... until it's not....

For me, QED. Seems to me there is significant momentum in this nation toward entitlements and socialism, including the related debts and bureaucracies that pile up; that continuing on the present course will burn us, and changing course will crating mounting friction with the beneficiaries of entitlements and bureaucracies.

This excerpt from Byron comes to mind for me:

There is the moral of all human tales;
'Tis but the same rehearsal of the past.
First Freedom and then Glory——when that fails,
Wealth, vice, corruption——barbarism at last.
And History, with all her volumes vast,
Hath but one page...

quote:

Originally posted by sigcrazy7:
The article you linked from HighExistence.com seemed familiar, and is an unattributed plagiarism of an article from commensensegovernment.com written by John Eberhard on 3/14/09. See The Tytler Cycle Revisited

I remember reading about this cycle back in college. The philosopher was a Scott named Alexander Tytler, and he identified these nine stages of modern societies back in 1787, two years before this country's founding.

HighExistence should have at least identified Alexander Tytler as the originator of the theory, and should have attributed the verbatim lifting of paragraphs from John Eberhard's piece. This is the problem with the WWW, IMO.

I am in absolute agreement.

One of the specious arguments still being made regarding the Tytler Cycle is the blatant assertion that "The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been two hundred years." The Roman Empire lasted for nearly 1,500 years (27BC - 1453AD). (If you want to consider only the Holy Roman Empire, then it's 844 years). The Empire of Japan, still extant today after 1,743 years. The Ottoman Empire for 623 (1299 - 1922). The Byzantine Empire: 874 years. On the other end, just in the past century: The Third Reich lasted 12 years. The Bolshevik (Communist) Revolution, 72 years.

So we now have this "magical" 200 years figure, which no one has defined, or shown any evidence that it has any significant meaning, and we're off to the races, speculating, arguing and justifying.

Makes for fun reading, though.

quote:

Originally posted by Lord Vaalic:
I would say 7.5

Due mainly to our inability to make a clear decision of distinction?

quote:

Originally posted by fpuhan:

quote:

Originally posted by sigcrazy7:
The article you linked from HighExistence.com seemed familiar, and is an unattributed plagiarism of an article from commensensegovernment.com written by John Eberhard on 3/14/09. See The Tytler Cycle Revisited

I remember reading about this cycle back in college. The philosopher was a Scott named Alexander Tytler, and he identified these nine stages of modern societies back in 1787, two years before this country's founding.

HighExistence should have at least identified Alexander Tytler as the originator of the theory, and should have attributed the verbatim lifting of paragraphs from John Eberhard's piece. This is the problem with the WWW, IMO.

I am in absolute agreement.

One of the specious arguments still being made regarding the Tytler Cycle is the blatant assertion that "The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been two hundred years." The Roman Empire lasted for nearly 1,500 years (27BC - 1453AD). (If you want to consider only the Holy Roman Empire, then it's 844 years). The Empire of Japan, still extant today after 1,743 years. The Ottoman Empire for 623 (1299 - 1922). The Byzantine Empire: 874 years. On the other end, just in the past century: The Third Reich lasted 12 years. The Bolshevik (Communist) Revolution, 72 years.

So we now have this "magical" 200 years figure, which no one has defined, or shown any evidence that it has any significant meaning, and we're off to the races, speculating, arguing and justifying.

Makes for fun reading, though.

Yeah, if one is conversant at all in history, the assertions, timelines, attributes all are hooey, let alone the claim of universality. In fact, I can't think of one 'greatest civilization' that has followed that specific process or timeline.

Anyone want to take the challenge? Provide even one example that, in 200 years has shown all these attributes in order and gone back to bondage. Hell, I'll grant double that and go 400 years.

Remember, the 'great civilization' has to show bondage, spiritual faith, great courage, liberty, abundance, selfishness, complacency, apathy, dependence in that order and then go straight back again into bondage. In 400 years.

Never had spiritual faith, or have liberty or abundance? DQ
Went straight from abundance to apathy? DQ
Showed great courage right after bondage? DQ.

The point of the piece (if there is one) may be to get people upset about dependence as the last step before bondage. And I don't even think that one specific claim is valid.

I don't know that there are unbreakable general rules in history, but I'd probably argue what brings a 'great civilization' into bondage would be something like:

horrific military defeats, and/or
epidemics, famines, or other demographic decline, and/or
economic collapse.

In other words, it gets depopulated and/or weakened militarily and/or weakened economically and someone stronger comes in. What would bring a 'great civilization' to a state where those could happen?

Yes, American dominance of the planet is not written into stone. But we are in a good position geopolitically, militarily, economically, have defensible borders with good natural resources inside them, friendly and militarily weak neighbors and a great trading location (closer to both Europe and Asia to trade, than they are with one another).

Bad as the political trend of reducing individual responsibility for one's own situation is (i.e. growth of the welfare state), remember that Rome didn't fall because they gave bread to their poor. It fell because it wasn't strong when neighbors came calling.

quote:

Originally posted by fpuhan:So we now have this "magical" 200 years figure, which no one has defined, or shown any evidence that it has any significant meaning, and we're off to the races, speculating, arguing and justifying.

Makes for fun reading, though.

It has significance only because people can panic and say "Holy shit, we're on borrowed time!"

I'd say "5."