quote:

Vanderbrink is just stating the obvious in the video. He’s not going to bankrupt the company by building capacity just to have the ammunition market tank in two years.

Except that every few years, this happens again. I've only been into guns for 15 years, and I've lived through at least 4 of these now, and it's really becoming a predictable thing. You'd think they'd want the capacity to meet the demand, because it ought to pay for itself in short order. Right now they can sell everything they can make, and pretty much name their price. Even if it settles down and they have to mothball some of that capacity for a couple of years, they'll be prepared to ramp back up when the next rush comes along.

The only thing that is going to stop the panic buying and stabilize the market is convincing the public that the manufacturers have the capacity to keep ammo on the shelves when they need it. Right now buyers have no confidence in this, and with good reason. Manufacturers aren't getting the job done. It's not even a price issue...around here, anyway, there just isn't any to be had. I don't know where you guys are at that are seeing regular ammo shipments...maybe the manufacturers are catering to the bigger vendors...but all we have are small local shops, and they're telling me they haven't seen any primers in months. I'd be willing to pay double the regular rate (or more) for primers at this point, but I haven't seen any locally for almost a year. I did get some at a big store in Ohio over Christmas, but was limited to 200 and paid $15 for those. I debated briefly about paying that much, but I'm glad I did because I haven't seen any since. These days you have to take what you can get.

Blaming this on the consumer doesn't really hold water. I had a pretty good stockpile of components going before this all started. I was spending more money than I probably should on bullets, powder, and primers for a guy with a wife and 4 kids on a single income. I also had more flammable and explosive stuff in my house than is likely safe at any one time. There's a practical limit to how much one can or should stockpile.

I reload to shoot, not to prep for the end of the world, or the idea that I might never be able to buy ammo again. Before the idiocy, I was shooting about 1000 rounds a month. I had enough components on hand to continue at this rate for over a year. But we're now a year into this with no end in sight. I still have ammo, but I've had to reduce my shooting significantly because I have no idea when I'm going to be able to get more primers. When I can get them, I'm not only going to need to buy enough to keep shooting, but also enough to replenish the stock that I've consumed, and now probably quite a bit more because the manufacturers can't assure me that availability will continue, and apparently it's my fault for not having enough on hand the last time.

I just had to tell my 12 year old today that he's not going to be able to join the 4h rifle club this year because we don't have enough .22 left, and no prospect of getting more (I had about 3500 rounds this time last year. We're down to about 850). He's going to do archery, so all is not lost...but that's really crappy.

I don't know what the answer is, but I'm getting sick of hearing the suppliers complain about the overwhelming demand, yet not be willing to increase capacity to meet it. I remember during the Obama panic, we started seeing imported Wolf and S&B primers on the shelves. They were cheap, and they worked. Where are those now? Bring some competition into the market and light a fire under these guys if that's what it takes to get it done. Heck, if I had the capital and manufacturing know-how, I'd start my own primer manufacturing business today and retire at 40 to spend the rest of my life shooting as much as I want!

I had to laugh about his whole “thanks for buying from us” and “buy American” lines. I haven’t been able to buy hardly anything ammowise since before Thanksgiving, and it sure wasn’t from his companies, or American manufactured. At this point I’d buy ammo from any country except the Chinese or North Koreans, if I knew it would go bang.

None of the local LGS or ammo vendors I frequent are getting orders filled. One ammo vendor flat out went out of business for lack of product to sell. I have one back order from 6 months ago that still hasn’t been filled, and it was already paid for. Notifications from any company I’ve ever ordered from? Crickets.

Last but not least, the whole “we can’t just build a new line to make ammo or primers”, except he just bought Remington ammo, one of the largest private ammo producers in this country, that had pretty much been shutdown during the bankruptcy proceedings.

I’ll trust him when he starts using numbers, rather than lines about more hunting ammo made than any previous year.

I've got myself on the "Notify Me" lists for the ammo I want at MidwayUSA and SGAmmo. Right now I'm interested in centerfire rifle ammo. I get very few notifications from SGAmmo. But I get a couple of alerts a week from Midway for one or two of the calibers I want. Since right around Thanksgiving, I've gotten 6 boxes of .30-30, 6 of .35 Remington, 9 of .270 and 9 of .30-06. Most of it has been Remington, the balance being Federal, and Sellier and Bellot. But I've gotten notices about Prvi Partizan, and Fiocchi, too. I like SGAmmo and Midway because they are still charging reasonable prices for ammo.

Problem is, if I don't buy it within a couple of minutes of getting the notice, it's gone. I work at home and my work computer is on the same table as a my personal computer. I leave my phone next to my work computer while I'm working so when I see a notice come through on my phone, I just hop around to the otherside of the table to my personal computer and order.

I have no idea what the problem is out there, but ammo is available if you're fast enough. So I think it is panic buying. I also think, and it's just my opinion, is that most of the brass and other raw materials is principally going into the calibers people are really wanting - 5.56/.223, 9mm, etc. Folks wanting some of the calibers I want and maybe some more obscure calibers are likely having fewer opportunities.

I watched the video and thought the guy's answers were very reasonable. Anyone in big business knows that when there is a spike in demand, one simply can't hire a whole bunch more people, or build a new factory, to deal with it. That spike will subside then you have to deal with the excess people or space you now have no need for. Working at capacity with what you have until you know if the new demand is permanent is the approach all major business take, whether its ammo manufacturing or insurance claims or whatever. And his primer explanation seems reasonable, too. All their ammo needs primers. Only the excess is sold off. If there is no excess, well, there's the answer.

I think there is a tendency to see a conspiracy in all this. I don't think there is one. It's a perfect storm of covid-related disruptions and a huge spike in demand.

Our small local fleet supply store seems to get a pallet in once a month or so. Mostly Browning 115gr 9mm but they have had Federal and American Eagle. All of it is at $14.99 a box. My bil works in shipping receiving so he gives me a heads up when product comes in. They put maybe 150 boxes out on the shelf at a time. When it's gone they might wait a few days to a week before putting more out.

They are trying to give everybody a chance to get something. They know everyone texts his buddies when they see it on the shelf so they are not putting all of it out at once. They have 5 stores scattered throughout the state. I was traveling through another town that had one of these stores about a hundred miles from here yesterday and stopped to see if they had any. Shelf was full so I picked up two more boxes.

Considering what I have back stocked at home you could say I'm hoarding at this point but there is no way I'm passing up decent brass cased 9mm at $14.99 a box right now.

I agree with the comments that it makes no sense the manufacturers are not looking to expand. Maybe they know something we don't. Are some of the materials imported from China and they are choking them off? And of course no one knows for certain what the new regime is going to do. Like most things they don't want you participating in they control the behavior through heavy taxes.

quote:

Originally posted by 92fstech:

quote:

Vanderbrink is just stating the obvious in the video. He’s not going to bankrupt the company by building capacity just to have the ammunition market tank in two years.

The only thing that is going to stop the panic buying and stabilize the market is convincing the public that the manufacturers have the capacity to keep ammo on the shelves when they need it.

I think you’re right, but therein lies the problem with manufacturers investing in new machines, factories, etc. - as soon as they have the capacity to meet the current demand and inventory begins to sit on shelves, the panic buying will slow/stop and demand will drop significantly. People care that they can get ammo when they need it, but (generally) they don’t care whether it’s in their safe or on the store shelf.

I don’t like this any more than you all do but, from the manufacturers’ perspective, their best play is to keep production at a level that produces the highest and most consistent demand for the longest amount of time.

I would have thought that people would not be shooting as much given the lack of inventory or the high cost of what is available but I’m seeing the exact opposite. Last weekend following the pickup of a my son’s new Glock 45 we decided to head over to the indoor range to break it in a bit. There was an hour long wait to get a lane and most lanes had multiple family members shooting. The abundance of shooters looked very new to shooting as most were wearing range eyes, ears, and shooting rentals. Most were buying ammo from the range at $40 per box of 9mm. At the sister store and range a few weeks ago they had pallets full of Fiocchi 124 and Blazer brass 115 for $700 a case and it looked like a food drop in Somalia. The stuff was flying out the door.

I have been doing a ton more sporting clays as getting target ammo has been relatively easy up until the last few weeks. I had been rotating through 12, 20, and 28 gauge ammo based on my inventory and what I could find. In the last few weeks the inventory has bottomed out there too.

quote:

because it ought to pay for itself in short order.

Not even close. To expand they companies first have to apply for the permits from the location at are in. That could take several months.

After that they have to start acquiring the machinery to produce the products. They don't appear overnight.

Then hire and train the employees that will be making the produce from start to finish. Dealing with the components required it's not like training a worker to stock shelves.

Then go out and secure the components that are required to produce the products.

You seriously think that it would happen in less than a year plus?

Then by the time you spend all that money.....tens of millions....demand may or may not be there. They have been through the same cycles as everyone else and know that at some point the demand will ease.

Finocchi announced a new plant is being built in AK. That was 7 months ago and it's still in the works to start.

Last year Sig planned on producing their own primer line. That isn't yet in operation and probably won't be for some time.

quote:

Originally posted by rscalzo:
Not even close. To expand they companies first have to apply for the permits from the location at are in. That could take several months.

I'll bet when lead and other potentially hazardous materials are involved, it's more like years.

quote:

Originally posted by 92fstech:
Even if it settles down and they have to mothball some of that capacity for a couple of years, they'll be prepared to ramp back up when the next rush comes along.

Manufacturers aren't getting the job done

I don't know what the answer is, but I'm getting sick of hearing the suppliers complain about the overwhelming demand, yet not be willing to increase capacity to meet it.

I feel your pain, but just to address a few of these statements.

If you were the CEO of an ammunition supplier, and you invested 100 million (a WAG on my part) in a plant that had to be mothballed for a few years after a year or two of production, there's a good chance your company won't be around for the next panic. You would still have to make the payments on that facility during that time. In fact, they basically did this in 1996, and it hurt the industry for many years. That's when a brick of primers fell to $12.95/1000, and they were stacked high and deep.

Ammunition makers are operating at capacity, and that is their job. They have no obligation, moral or otherwise, to increase capacity to meet demand. If the demand is real and sustained, then they will grow, or a competitor will fill that space. The fact that it isn't happening is a clue about the long-term sustainability of the past panics. In the video linked above, Vanderbrink did state that as recently as March 2020 they were dealing with overcapacity issues.

The capacity issues extend beyond just the ammunition suppliers. Capacity would need to be increased throughout the supply chain, including the suppliers of raw materials. Are the suppliers of copper, lead, brass, and chemicals able to increase their capacity in short order? Unlikely, especially while they may be working through their own Covid-19 related workforce issues. Even if you had your own shiny new ammunition plant ready-to-go, there's no guarantee that your suppliers would be able to supply the materials to keep it running. Primers really are the bottleneck. With enough primers, smaller, 2nd tier makers can fill the need very quickly. Makers like HSM and DoubleTap can be brought online very quickly, if components are available.

It would likely take 3-5 years to get a new plant up and running. You'd have to work through financing, land acquisition, permitting, construction, machinery manufacturing/outfitting, workforce hiring & training, just to name a few steps. I've heard that the permitting for just a primer or 22LR plant is in the years because of the explosives involved. Then there's the NIMBY folks to deal with, so you'd have legal hurtles to overcome. I'm sure if this demand persists at this level for years, you will begin to see capacity increase. I'm hopeful that the selling of the Lanoke, AR plant to Vista will provide an uptick in capacity in the short run. Remington has been cash strapped for so long that I'm sure they were unwilling or unable to buy the necessary components to operate their ammunition plants at capacity. Hopefully Vista will get Remington to 100% in short order.

Don't look for foreign supplies to help, unfortunately. While hopeful, I doubt the current political climate is sympathetic to your plight. This round of shortages is like bad weather. It will be over when it's over.

[Boromir gif] One does not simply open an ammunition plant.

Capital expenditure, labor, and materiel shortages aside, the Gov’t regulation is murderous. Even if somebody had the land and equipment ready to go and could quickly get the labor force together, you’re dealing with lead and other toxic/hazardous material handling and storage, propellants and explosives...OSHA and the EPA will not be rushed. You’re talking years of approval processes.

quote:

Originally posted by sigcrazy7:
Ammunition makers are operating at capacity, and that is their job. They have no obligation, moral or otherwise, to increase capacity to meet demand.

The crux is that they're not fulfilling existing orders but, instead satisfying their largest dealers at the expense of their smaller dealers. As I posted prior, there's dealers who still have outstanding orders from last Spring, which have not been fulfilled, yet the CEO says they're operating at capacity and making our widgets as fast as possible. So, six months later they're still not caught up with Spring...where's those orders going then?

The reality is, they're satisfying their largest dealers demands, at the expense of their smaller dealers. Its not an unusual business strategy (if you're a dealer that doesn't pay its bills on-time, your orders get delayed/reallocated/cancelled) however you walk the fine line of angering a large portion of your dealer base and dramatically shrinking your market presence should they not carry your product. Federal owns a number of brands, I'm not familiar with how each of those brand are distributed other than, wherever you find one, you usually can find the others. I also know that if you piss off a brand directly, they'll tell you to piss-off, and get your ammo from a distributor, in which case you'll pay an increased mark-up and good luck getting what you want as the distributor will play its games as well.

quote:

Originally posted by corsair:

quote:

Originally posted by sigcrazy7:
Ammunition makers are operating at capacity, and that is their job. They have no obligation, moral or otherwise, to increase capacity to meet demand.

The crux is that they're not fulfilling existing orders but, instead satisfying their largest dealers at the expense of their smaller dealers.

How do you know the largest distributors don't have outstanding orders from the Spring, or that there are not contractual agreements already in place? Besides, there's nobody that's going to tell Federal to go climb a tree. I don't know how anything would decrease Vista's market share. I suppose a small shop could forgo carrying any Federal, Speer, CCI, Remington, or Eagle ammunition. My guess is small dealers only carrying Winchester, Hornady, and Sellier & Belliot would hurt the dealer more, while Vista wouldn't notice.

quote:

Originally posted by corsair:
The reality is, they're satisfying their largest dealers demands, at the expense of their smaller dealers.

This may be correct. I get a notification or two a week from MidwayUSA. But I haven't gotten one from SGAmmo, a family owned small business, in months. Their list of calibers are shrunk a great deal. I know they are hurting.

Ammo Shortage Expected to Last into 2021
by James Murphy October 5, 2020



"One Scottsdale, Arizona, based ammunition manufacturer, Ammo Incorporated, is currently facing an $80.1 million backlog in orders despite working around the clock.

“We’re working right now seven days a week, 24 hours a day in all the manufacturing plants,” said the company’s CEO, Fred Wagenhals. Ammo Incorporated has plants in Payson, Arizona, and Manitowoc, Wisconsin.

“We just bought $2.8 million dollars worth of machinery and equipment last week to increase our production and increase our volume,” Wagenhals said." (emphasis mine)

https://thenewamerican.com/amm...d-to-last-into-2021/

I took my son shooting last weekend and just grabbed three boxes of Blazer Brass 9mm and 100 rounds of .556 out of the closet. I had no idea that to replace what he shot would cost about $240.00.

I haven't been paying attention to prices lately and didn't realize they are insane.

quote:

Originally posted by sigcrazy7:

quote:

Originally posted by corsair:

quote:

Originally posted by sigcrazy7:
Ammunition makers are operating at capacity, and that is their job. They have no obligation, moral or otherwise, to increase capacity to meet demand.

The crux is that they're not fulfilling existing orders but, instead satisfying their largest dealers at the expense of their smaller dealers.

How do you know the largest distributors don't have outstanding orders from the Spring, or that there are not contractual agreements already in place? Besides, there's nobody that's going to tell Federal to go climb a tree. I don't know how anything would decrease Vista's market share. I suppose a small shop could forgo carrying any Federal, Speer, CCI, Remington, or Eagle ammunition. My guess is small dealers only carrying Winchester, Hornady, and Sellier & Belliot would hurt the dealer more, while Vista wouldn't notice.

My work is in wholesale sales, regardless of industry, sales is sales. When inventory is tight, intentional or, not, the easy default for executives is to make sure their 'best' accounts are taken care of. The 'gun industry' isn't the most dynamic or, innovative; with a heavy reliance on distributors, the lack of differentiation between sporting goods and specialty retailers and now with the recent acquisition of Sportsman's Warehouse by Bass-bela (Great American Outdoors Group), the firearms world has only gotten smaller.

So now we've heard from the people who have over paid jobs. They don't do the work, they make excuses for not doing it. If you expect them to be the answer to the problem, you're whistling dixie. The classic answer to the problem is to never buy from them again, and even write letters for them to toss in the trash. They know what they want to do, and its not perform.

There are some answers. First, give up on this cycle. If you need amusement, Ok, complain. Then consider some answers. First, look into reloading. Those of us not bitching loudly already do. Then stockpile components. Yeah, we do that too because its cheaper. Somebody said this is his 4th cycle of it. I guess he's talking major shortages, not to include the minor one. Every damn time the coasts elect a liberal president, we've got this shit. Just like the klinton years, or when they elected Obamy. Or carter. See a predictable pattern here? Every election cycle or every other.

How long have you been shooting? Are you a slow learner? This will happen again. And if you don't have a stockpile (stacked deep), its not our fault because we told you. Years ago even. Until then, take up sewing or knitting. This too will end. Save your money for the next stockpiling cycle. Then learn of the alternatives. Shoot lower priced ammo. That can be termed reloaded. Then learn to reload.

Those of us not complaining are also called reloaders. You don't have to reload, but if you do you won't need to complain brcause you'll have ammo to shoot. Or give away to people like me who really don't need it. We're also called reloaders or quicker learners. Say what you want, we're still shooting. When this ends, reallocate your finances. For the future.

Admittedly, I'm not a manufacturing guy, and what many of you guys are saying does make sense about red-tape, the costs to tool up, etc. I guess my question then is how long does this have to go on for it to become profitable enough for it to make sense to expand capacity? Or is the better solution to raise prices to the point that people aren't willing or able to buy in such quantity? I don't want to see prices go up any more than the next guy, but there's got to be some middle ground between empty shelves and primers going for $600/1000 on gunbroker.

My opinion? There have been too many of these "boom or bust" cycles for ANY manufacturer to be able to honestly look you in the eye and claim they didn't know the lean times were coming. As always, I stand with those who advocate making American product with American materials...... FredT

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:
I don’t know about where you live, but every place I know of is getting ammo in. Problem is, it’s gone within minutes because of panic buying. A local gun store got 4200 boxes of Blazer 115 grain. They open at 9 and it was gone by 12 with a “two box per family” limit. Academy’s ammo truck shows up on Tuesday morning. There is always a several hundred yard long line to get in the door when they open on a one box per person limit.

This is why.

To sell that ammo that quickly, they’re cashing out 720 customers per hour, or 12 customers per minute for 3 solid hours...assuming each buys their 2 box limit. That must have been quite the sight to see...