quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Not gonna happen. I find it comical that anyone even considers it possible.

Para is right, they will just print the money and refill the fund.

quote:

Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
If they actually get rid of enough fraud with the new investigation, that should help quite a bit.

SS is 21% of budget at $1.5T, there's no amount of fraud that is going to move the actual rather than emotional needle in that space. Even with that, I'm in the para camp, perhaps minus the "no reduction of benefits" piece. I think they will continue to get squeezed, but not in a sweeping 50% reduction or any such.

Add in Medicare at 15% and $1.2T and we're talking real fun.

quote:

Originally posted by slosig:
.... I’ll prepare as well as I can for the worst, hope for the best, and just wait and see what happens.

I suspect you're thinking the worst in terms of impact on your personal budget, savings and expenditures. The "worst" would be much more impactful than that across society, which is one of reasons we'll be unlikely to see any meaningful change anytime soon.

I am 6 years away from drawing it. I assure you, if I do not get it I will find a way to stop paying taxes. I have not paid in all these decades for them to tell me that they screwed up and it is all gone. If it is gone then so are my tax dollars from that point forward.

It has always been a con and one of the most destructive acts, ever envisioned by the scum of DC.

Killing it off, would economically transform the country.

quote:

Originally posted by Fly-Sig:
Means testing will be greatly expanded. It is quite powerful because those who have the largest savings are probably the same as those getting the largest SS checks. So there's more to claw back via means testing than a small percentage across the board reduction in payments.

I expect they will once again seriously float the idea of confiscating all retirement accounts and roll it into Social Security under the guise of protecting us from stock market downturns. In reality it is one more way to kick the can down the road.

The government will be truly cornered financially before long. It won't just be SS, it will be everything. Servicing the national debt is already an enormous drag on the budget and on the economy, and the debt is growing exponentially. There's just nowhere else to go to find dollars for all of the spending.

Even if the plan is to allow very high inflation in order to devalue the debt, SS is inflation indexed (even if using cooked numbers). Hyper inflation crashes the government, which is one way to ignore the problem but of course is the most painful reset option.

I’ve been saying this for decades-that this is their “solution.”

quote:

I expect they will once again seriously float the idea of confiscating all retirement accounts and roll it into Social Security under the guise of protecting us from stock market downturns.

If I caught wind of that... I'd relocate my accounts out of the country before they could take them.

quote:

Originally posted by fischtown7:

Para is right, they will just print the money and refill the fund.

They will need to print a whole lotta dollars just to cover SS, which fuels inflation. Inflation requires COLA adjustments which increase SS payments. Which then requires even more dollars printed to cover the increases, which causes more inflation.

That doesn't even consider the rest of the budget, nor how they "print" dollars. Dollars are created electronically by issuing new debt. New debt requires paying interest.

The spiral is exponential already. It is a death spiral for the dollar, which is death to our national economy. Once again I'll recommend the book "The Mandibles" by Shriver as a very plausible look at where we are headed at full steam.

This isn't the first time SS has faced bankruptcy and requires legislative repair. We faced a similar crisis in the early 1980's. There are several proposals that can fix it, but our electors would rather crawl through broken glass than actually legislate. The Fair Share act is the likeliest scenario where they fleece high earners at a higher rate and on more income. Another proposal involves a new and separate fund that would be invested in the stock market and high yield bonds. There is also the possibility that they extend the age for retirement and cap the income of recipients. SS isn't going away and the failure of that program would effectively be the failure of society as a whole.

No, the sky is falling aaaaaaaaaawwaaaaaaaaaah

aaaaaaaaaaawaaaaaaaaaaah


aaah

quote:

Originally posted by bdylan:
SS isn't going away and the failure of that program would effectively be the failure of society as a whole.

How? The math on it never did work. Why does a stupid idea, dying, mean a failed society?

My parents said it wouldn't be around for me and my siblings. I was saying the same things to my kids years ago. There will always be some form of social security - perhaps with modifications along the way to 2032. The best strategy for younger generations is to plan and invest as if it won't be there.

We'll certainly see what happens.

quote:

Originally posted by FenderBender:
We'll certainly see what happens.

[Archie Bunker] Fuckin' Notre Dame-us over heah [/Archie Bunker]

^^^^^^
As in “Nostradamus“.

quote:

Originally posted by bdylan:
This isn't the first time SS has faced bankruptcy and requires legislative repair. We faced a similar crisis in the early 1980's. There are several proposals that can fix it, but our electors would rather crawl through broken glass than actually legislate.

That's the whole reason for the CBO. The report is suggesting action by Congress but they'd rather ignore it.

"The longer lawmakers wait to act, though, the more abrupt and difficult the changes will be to implement.”

Potential fixes include raising the full retirement age (currently 67), increasing payroll taxes, lifting the cap on taxable earnings, or reducing the annual COLA.

quote:

Originally posted by Aglifter:
Why does a stupid idea, dying, mean a failed society?

Seventy-one million SS recipients. That's 25.7 percent of the US adult population.

Coupled with 27-40% of recipients relying solely on this in retirement. For 73% it's more than half their income.

No matter how shitty an idea it may have been at origin or in eventual or evolved execution, it's part of the fabric of society now.

Only the little green men can save us now. Unless the aliens show up and take a large percentage of our population off to utopia things will continue to get dicey.

IT'S A COOKBOOK!

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:

quote:

Originally posted by FenderBender:
We'll certainly see what happens.

[Archie Bunker] Fuckin' Notre Dame-us over heah [/Archie Bunker]

My record is surprisingly good.

Social Security can't be viewed in isolation... it's part of a larger problem:

The Debt Can Is Getting Harder to Kick

By Timothy Nash, Bob Thomas, George Lang, & Tom Rastin

In the book When We Are Free, an anthology published by Northwood University Press with a foreword by Milton Friedman, economic historian Dr. Lawrence W. Reed contributed a chapter titled The Fall of Rome and Modern Parallels.Reed examines how the Roman Empire collapsed and draws striking comparisons to the fiscal habits of modern governments.

His warning is worth revisiting today.

In the United States, federal law does not allow states to declare bankruptcy. To prevent fiscal collapse, 49 out of 50 states operate under some form of balanced budget requirement. These rules force policymakers to make difficult decisions each year and prevent deficits from spiraling out of control.

The federal government operates very differently.

Today the U.S. national debt now totals $38.9 trillion, about 125% of GDP, while state and local debt is $3.3 trillion, under 11% of GDP. In 1900, total U.S. debt was just 7.8% of GDP, mostly held by states and local governments. Even in 1981, federal debt was roughly 36% of GDP and barely exceeded $1 trillion.

In other words, the federal government has moved from a relatively small borrower to the dominant source of public debt in the American economy.

Lessons From History

History offers many examples of nations that allowed debt and spending to grow beyond sustainable limits. The Roman Empire collapsed in 476 AD after decades of fiscal strain, inflation, and military spending. Germany’s Weimar Republic unraveled in the early twentieth century after economic instability and runaway inflation destroyed public confidence in the currency and brought Hitler to power. These events did not occur overnight; they were the result of years of postponing hard fiscal choices.

The underlying lesson is this: excessive government borrowing eventually limits economic growth, weakens currency stability, and places heavy burdens on future taxpayers.

According to the U.S. Treasury, federal spending now exceeds $7 trillion annually, with annual deficits surpassing $1.7 trillion. Meanwhile, debt per American citizen is roughly $113,000, and debt per taxpayer exceeds $350,000.

The largest federal expenditures remain familiar: Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and national defense. These commitments reflect important national priorities. But when spending rises faster than economic growth, deficits accumulate quickly.

Debt Is Growing at Every Level

The Federal Reserve Bank reports that total U.S. household debt reached $18.8 trillion in late 2025, driven by increases in mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, and student loans.

Even retirement savings, long viewed as a financial safety net, are increasingly being tapped for short-term emergencies. According to a recent Wall Street Journal report, hardship withdrawals from 401(k) accounts increased for six consecutive years. The most common reasons for withdrawals include avoiding eviction or foreclosure and paying medical expenses.

This trend highlights a growing financial fragility among American households. While retirement balances have reached record highs, roughly $168,000, many workers still struggle to maintain financial stability when unexpected costs arise.

At the same time, consumer borrowing continues to expand. Auto loan balances reached $1.67 trillion, credit card balances topped $1.28 trillion, and home equity borrowing has also begun rising again.

These numbers tell a broader story. Americans, like the federal government, are increasingly relying on debt to maintain current spending levels.

New Uncertainty Around Government Revenues

Tariffs were once expected to generate substantial government revenue. However, recent court rulings challenging the legality of certain tariffs have introduced uncertainty about whether those funds, estimated at roughly $130 billion, can ultimately be retained by the federal government.

If repayments are required, the federal deficit could grow even larger.

Meanwhile, geopolitical instability adds another layer of fiscal risk. Military conflicts, including tensions in the Middle East and possible extended operations in the war against Iran, can quickly increase federal defense spending. Wars historically accelerate government borrowing. Combined with rising interest costs on existing debt, these expenditures place additional pressure on federal finances.

At the same time, inflation continues to weigh on Americans. Higher interest rates increase the cost of servicing debt, reducing the financial flexibility of families and businesses alike.

A Sustainable Path Forward

The solution is not simply austerity, nor is it unlimited borrowing. The United States must pursue a balanced approach that combines fiscal restraint with economic growth.

Three steps are essential.

• First, Washington must restore spending discipline.
  The federal government does not necessarily need to adopt a strict balanced budget amendment tomorrow. However, policymakers should establish credible long-term limits on deficit growth with town hall meetings — a possible useful tool for direct voter input, for all members of Congress and each other. Without fiscal guardrails, spending decisions become increasingly disconnected from economic reality.
  
• Second, the country must prioritize economic growth.
  The most effective way to reduce debt relative to GDP is to expand the economy itself. Policies that encourage innovation, entrepreneurship, workforce development, and domestic investment can help generate the productivity gains necessary to grow the tax base without raising tax rates and allowing for sound regulatory reform.
  
• Third, the United States should pursue strategic investment in energy and energy regulatory reform.
  Reliable and affordable energy, led by natural gas and nuclear power remains one of the most substantial drivers of economic growth. Expanding domestic energy production can strengthen national security, stabilize prices, and support industrial competitiveness.
  

Energy development also attracts capital investment, supports manufacturing, and creates high-paying jobs. A strong energy sector therefore plays a direct role in strengthening federal revenues while reducing economic vulnerability to global shocks.

Together, these strategies can help place the country on a more sustainable fiscal trajectory.

The Debt Can Is Becoming Un-kickable

For decades, policymakers have managed the rising federal debt by pushing tough decisions further into the future. But that strategy is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.

Interest payments on the national debt are rising rapidly. Households are drawing down retirement savings to meet short-term needs. Consumer debt continues to climb as inflation strains family budgets. Underwater trade-ins on new automobiles, light trucks and SUVS hit a record $7,214 in late 2025, with nearly one-third of buyers owing more than their vehicle was worth, according to a recent Automotive News article.

At some point, the can simply cannot be kicked any further down the road.

America’s economic strength has been built on invention, innovation, productivity, and responsible stewardship of resources. Through fiscal discipline, encouraging growth, and investing wisely in strategic industries, the United States can maintain its economic leadership while reducing its debt burden.

The alternative, risks eroding the very economic foundation that made America prosperous in the first place.

The time to confront the debt challenge is not when a crisis leaves you no choice. It is now.

https://www.realclearwire.com/...to_kick_1171271.html