Another .75 interest rate hike today. Money market funds will be yielding 3 percent very soon and possibly 4.5 percent by end of the year. Mortgage rates over 6 percent now. Market did not like Powells comments and down again. Going to be bumpy ride for who knows how long.

https://www.reuters.com/market...al-banks-2022-09-21/

quote:

Originally posted by RichardC:

quote:

Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:
Nothing new here. We are in a recession and will get through it like all the others. Thank the Democrats for this one.

"Democrats"?

Look at The Fed, Uni-Party Congress, Uni-Party .Senate and the Executive branch over the last many decades.

And look at Venezuela as an indicator. We'll 'get through it'alright, but we won't like what is on the other end.

This ^^^^^

quote:

Originally posted by nhracecraft:
^^^The low in mid-June could be stratospheric compared to what's likely on the horizon...

And here we are, back at the 'Ides of June'...

You probably noticed everything dropped significantly yesterday. Biggest factor was the FED rate hike on Wednesday I guess.

We'll see what happens next, as always.

I just checked, and my Roth IRA, which is invested in a 4 fund blend of Vanguard index funds, is down 23% since 1/1/2022.

Luckily, I'm still at least 22 years away from needing to draw on it.

They cannot prop the house of cards up forever. When those in charge have bilked all they can from ordinary folks the house of cards will come down. Whether that is now or sometime in the not to distant future it is coming sooner than later.

quote:

Originally posted by old rugged cross:
Whether that is now or sometime in the not to distant future it is coming sooner than later.

I predict under 20,000 by the end of next year.

Things will improve.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Hay2bale,

with the market doing what it is (down then up, then down then). It always seems to push your portfolio down. It is sort of like the up days don't count

Remember that the down market is a loss only if you sell. The history of the market is downs followed by ups.
Hard to do but try not to be a constant watcher.

I watch constantly, haven't sold anything, only buying what I feel are bargains. My 401K is down 25% for the year, my Roth's are up a bit


Just bought some Tesla at $208 Thursday

quote:

Originally posted by D_Steve:
Remember that the down market is a loss only if you sell. The history of the market is downs followed by ups.
Hard to do but try not to be a constant watcher.

Years ago I got my Financial Advisor to take on an account of a good friend of Mrs. Flash as a favor to me.

She watched the market every day and actually called the Advisor any day the market went down and demanded an explanation for why it went down.

He finally got tired of her, called a meeting and fired her, gave her a check for her money.

I talked to her 10 year later and told her how much she would have if she'd kept her mouth shut and kept the money in the market.

Her mouth cost her big time.

-16% last I checked from equities losses. Lately, a little $/cost/avg out on upticks to 2/3rds cash (from 50%).

Not yet buying this nutty notion of rate hike reductions. Crazy Vix; s&p500 is playing w fire and companies freezing hiring or worse, along w real estate buggered @ high prices plus 7% mortgages.

Maybe the election saves the market - but there is still a ton of bad news for 2023 imo. (You can even see the Democrats positioning for this bad news to blame the Republicans after they take over the Congress in a few weeks.)

Europe is still screwed. And China is wrapping up their CCP activities. Therefore Taiwan is on the radar. No good news yet, other than the red wave election here.

Everything is treacherous right now, but that means opportunity.

If you've not been through a major economic downturn before as an actively aware investor, don't panic!

I believe the overall market has another 10-30% downward movement. This is a buying opportunity. The timeline is probably 2 years before a true upturn, so resist FOMO buying, but buying in increments as the market goes down will pay off.

If you're working, max out your 401k/IRA savings. I strongly favor ROTH, but regardless now is a good time to be making those regular investments. Ten years from now you'll look back and see how much the market has risen.

If you sit out you are likely to miss the initial upswing, which is usually big and fast, but also unpredictable. You don't get advanced notice of when it is coming.

We're nearing 1 year into retirement, and so we do feel the pain. We went mostly cash in our portfolio in January, and are still 50% cash. We are buying into a variety of investments as the market drops, knowing it will pay off within a few years. I believe now is a great buying opportunity for precious metals, which may pay in a few months.

I Bonds are a great idea right now. You've got 6 days to get in on better than 9% in a US Treasury! It takes a couple of days to navigate the logistics, so don't procrastinate.

Be annoyed, be concerned, but don't panic.

quote:

I predict under 20,000 by the end of next year.

^^^^^^^^^^^
So. I have been in the market when the Dow was 884. I have no need to sell and have plenty of cash. Unless you are an accomplished trader it makes no sense to look at the market daily. I do, however follow the financial news. After the midterm elections I would expect a bounce in prices.

quote:

I predict under 20,000 by the end of next year.

^^^^^^^^^^^
I've been in the market since it was 851 or so and I'll predict it'll be around 35,000 by the end of 2023.

quote:

Originally posted by Flash-LB:

quote:

I predict under 20,000 by the end of next year.

^^^^^^^^^^^
I've been in the market since it was 851 or so and I'll predict it'll be around 35,000 by the end of 2023.

Small Wager?

Lmao … 98% debt to GDP, and interest rates still climbing.

Shall we bet a whole beef? Perhaps a pig and a duck too?

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:

quote:

Originally posted by Flash-LB:

quote:

I predict under 20,000 by the end of next year.

^^^^^^^^^^^
I've been in the market since it was 851 or so and I'll predict it'll be around 35,000 by the end of 2023.

Small Wager?

Lmao … 98% debt to GDP, and interest rates still climbing.

Shall we bet a whole beef? Perhaps a pig and a duck too?

I'm thinking something more along the lines of a Unicorn.

Medic! Tourniquet!

The house of cards is crumbling. Silicone Valley Bank just collapsed 2nd largest bank failure in US history. https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/10.../svb-bank/index.html