Collins Agonizes Over Decision To Ditch The Senate Politico, Burgess Everett, 10/03/17
Sen. Heidi Heitkamp was watching TV recently when she saw a report that Susan Collins was considering a run for Maine governor and soliciting advice on the decision. The North Dakota Democrat quickly shot a text message to her Republican colleague: "Don't do it."
A move by Collins to seek the governorship would rock the Senate and the broader political landscape. In a chamber controlled by just 52 Republicans, Collins and a handful of other centrist senators can decide the fate of President Donald Trump's agenda. And a run by Collins for governor could eventually cost the GOP one of its last congressional footholds in New England.
Collins is torn over whether to leave her prominent perch as one of the Senate's few true moderate legislators, according to her colleagues. If Collins had made up her mind by now, said Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), "she already would have announced it." In an interview, Collins said the buzz about her prolonged indecision is "accurate". She initially planned to make up her mind by the end of September, but pushed back her deadline to mid-October as she wrestled with the GOP's recent Obamacare repeal effort. "Given the contentious environment in Washington right now, my voice and my vote matter a great deal," Collins said. "On the other hand, if I were fortunate enough to be elected governor, I could work more directly on job creation." She added: "That's why it's such a difficult decision to make. And I'm trying to figure out where I matter most."
A Governor Collins would leave centrists like Heitkamp even more lonely in the Senate. But Heitkamp acknowledges that Collins is feeling a tug to return to Maine full time: "Fundamentally, she wants to go home."
"She is [up in the air]. And I think she had hoped to make a decision before this," said Heitkamp, who herself weighed retirement before announcing this year she'd run for a second term. "I desperately hope she doesn't run."
There's also a risk fir the fourth-term senator. She could face a primary challenge in the gubernatorial race, fueled by term-limited Republican Gov. Paul LePage's open disdain for Collins' opposition to Obamacare repeal proposals. And if Collins runs, it would likely fuel Democrats' push to take back the Senate in 2020, since most Republicans believe she's the only person from her party who can hold the seat.
In 2012, when Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) retired, King walloped the GOP candidate. So the first thing Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) did when he took over as the Senate GOP's campaign chairman was set out to persuade Collins to run again in 2014. She won reelection with 68% of the vote and the Republicans took the chamber for the first time in eight years.
King is begging her not to leave. And in an unusual display of bipartisanship in the Senate, so are moderate Democrats. "She's so important to the country here," said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). "We don't have enough folks like her."
Republicans are fretting Collins will join retiring Sen. Bob Corker (R.-Tenn.) and create a wave of pragmatic GOP senators fleeing the chamber. Though Collins holds sway as one of the chamber's few swing votes, she also faces the frustration of watching her party constantly doing the opposite of what she'd like - from trying to repeal Obamacare on party lines, to refusing to hold a hearing on Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland, to nominating Donald Trump.
In the latest Obamacare repeal effort, even after party leaders had written her off as an automatic "no," she came under unyielding pressure from the White House. Vice President Mike Pence called her last Saturday as she drove across the state, a conversation that got so in-depth that Collins pulled her car over. They talked for 40 minutes. Not even two days later, Collins came out in opposition, delivering the knockout blow. And she says another party-line shot is unwise. "I don't think having a partisan approach to an issue that affects one-sixth of our economy and affects millions of Americans is the right way to go," Collins said.
(Random comment from John McCain excised.)
Collins is reevaluating her career amid some ominous developments for a politician with her profile. Prominent deal-makers in Congress are retiring just as a new wave of strident conservatives are trying to break in. Meanwhile, Republicans say they want to take another stab next year at a party-line repeal of Obamacare, and they're weighing doing the same thing on tax reform. Collins would enjoy more autonomy and control over the agenda as governor or Maine, a job she sought unsuccessfully in 1994.
Collins said her committee work and seniority "really matter" - but she is tantalized by the opportunity to help the less populous parts of the state, where shuttered paper mills and an aging population have devastated the economy. "I'm from the northern part of the state, which needs a lot of help...two-thirds of the state is losing population and opportunity," she said. "I have some ideas for economic development that only a governor can pursue."
Maine Republicans say Collins would likely have to navigate the divide between the Trump and establishment wings of the Republican party if she runs. LePage spent November slamming her opposition to the Graham-Cassidy health repeal bill as "shameful" as the two sparred over whether the bill would have been good for the state. Phil Harriman, a political analyst and former Republican state senator, said LePage's attacks on Collins could be damaging given his sway over the state party, though she'd be a clear front-runner in a general election. "It would be more complicated, at least in the Republican primary," Harriman said. "If it was today, I'd say she'd probably face a primary challenge."
Collins is cognizant of the state's complicated political environment. In the past two decades, Maine has had Republican, Democratic and independent governors. Collins, Snowe and King have been among the most independent-minded senators in recent years. And Trump won an electoral vote in the northern part of the state, pushing Maine into swing-state territory. Asked about LePage's performance, Collins was diplomatic. But she acknowledged the yawning difference between her measured moderation and his bombastic sound bites. "I support many of Gov. LePage's policies," she said. "Obviously, he and I have very different styles and we disagree on what the impact of what Graham-Cassidy would have been."
While Republicans are fretting that the GOP's flailing governance of Washington will push Collins to join the retiring Corker and Pennsylvania Rep. Charlie Dent, it's not uncommon for senators to mull leaving the dysfunctional chamber for executive office. Most, like Heitkamp and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), eventually decide to stay in D.C.
Hmm. Well, after four terms in the US Senate, I guess she's got a Senate pension nailed down. And after failing to hipcheck the Republican health care initiative into some bastardized mess that retains subsidies, she may not think she's getting enough attention.
OTOH, it sure sounds like the Dems think she'd be replaced by someone more conservative. Otherwise they'd be thrilled to get either another Democrat, or another "Independent" Senator from Maine like Angus King who caucuses with the Democrats, right?
It's a pity the Governor's election is in November 2018. If the Republicans manage to build on their majority in the Senate, I would just about guarantee you she'd go home.
Posts: 27322 | Location: Deep in the heart of the brush country, and closing on that #&*%!?! roadrunner. Really. | Registered: February 05, 2008
Then (and I mean no offense) do the rest of us really have all that much to lose? Susan's already made it clear she expects to get something for the sacrifice she's making by remaining in the Senate.
Posts: 27322 | Location: Deep in the heart of the brush country, and closing on that #&*%!?! roadrunner. Really. | Registered: February 05, 2008
The article keeps saying Susan Collins is a Centrist. Either the author doesn't know what a Centrist is or he's being obtuse because Susan Collins is anything but center in the political spectrum.
If Maine votes a Democrat senator to replace her, what difference does it make to the current structure? It's misleading to count her as a Republican in the makeup of the Senate. The truth is she already counts as a Democrat and we've known that for years. The game changer would be if the good citizens of Maine elected an actual conservative to the position.
Posts: 5091 | Location: Arkansas | Registered: September 04, 2008
Originally posted by marksman41: The article keeps saying Susan Collins is a Centrist. Either the author doesn't know what a Centrist is or he's being obtuse because Susan Collins is anything but center in the political spectrum.
If Maine votes a Democrat senator to replace her, what difference does it make to the current structure? It's misleading to count her as a Republican in the makeup of the Senate. The truth is she already counts as a Democrat and we've known that for years. The game changer would be if the good citizens of Maine elected an actual conservative to the position.
Originally posted by marksman41: The article keeps saying Susan Collins is a Centrist. Either the author doesn't know what a Centrist is or he's being obtuse because Susan Collins is anything but center in the political spectrum.
If Maine votes a Democrat senator to replace her, what difference does it make to the current structure? It's misleading to count her as a Republican in the makeup of the Senate. The truth is she already counts as a Democrat and we've known that for years. The game changer would be if the good citizens of Maine elected an actual conservative to the position.
How about in regard to judges?
I don't know. Is that a rhetorical question? If so, and you're willing, I'm okay with a little enlightenment as to why Susan Collins should be included in the numbers as a Republican.
Posts: 5091 | Location: Arkansas | Registered: September 04, 2008
Either the author doesn't know what a Centrist is[...]
Well, the article is from Politico and we've all seen which way Politico bends. Maybe I'm reading tea leaves, but I actually thought it was mildly interesting that the article consistently referred to "Obamacare" rather than "the ACA" or "Affordable Care Act".
Posts: 27322 | Location: Deep in the heart of the brush country, and closing on that #&*%!?! roadrunner. Really. | Registered: February 05, 2008
Does she and her colleagues really believe that she is indispensible? A great country was founded and put on a glorious path to prosperity and liberty without her for a couple of centuries, and it will continue to chart whatever path is destined for it with or without her.
I'm in favor of term limits.
Posts: 6084 | Location: FL | Registered: March 09, 2009
Hide Post Does she and her colleagues really believe that she is indispensible?
Ah, that was one of the fun things about this article - the only colleagues of hers who are cited as calling her indispensable in the article are those of her colleagues who caucus with the Democrats.
Posts: 27322 | Location: Deep in the heart of the brush country, and closing on that #&*%!?! roadrunner. Really. | Registered: February 05, 2008
