Appears that Putin will certainly invade now. I’m at 97% likely.

Does this create the attention gap that China needs to move on Taiwan?

What will be our role?

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:
Appears that Putin will certainly invade now. I’m at 97% likely.

Does this create the attention gap that China needs to move on Taiwan?

What will be our role?

Oh FFS.

quote:

Originally posted by Veeper:

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:
Appears that Putin will certainly invade now. I’m at 97% likely.

Does this create the attention gap that China needs to move on Taiwan?

What will be our role?

Oh FFS.

That was especially edifying. Now we all know that you can say “fuck” inside your head.

Thank you! Lol

I have no input, but just want to say I found that exchange hilarious.

I'll hold my breath

Some online wagering perhaps?

I'm at 1%.

Putin is playing the west like a fiddle.

Our role? Absolutely nothing. We shouldn't have deployed a single additional soldier to Europe.

Even if Putin does something, and that's a big if, he will NEVER move on a NATO country. He enjoys being in power.

The chances of Russia invading go down as the price of oil goes up.

As long as it is above what it costs them to pull it out of the ground, they don't need the expense of an occupation.

So $1k, $2500 wager on Putin?

And since my odds are so low/terribly chicken little, you will give me 19:1?

Regional, not global. I don’t see China moving on Taiwan in tandem with a Russian dust up in the Caucasus. That level of cooperation requires a trust that doesn’t exist between the two. China acts in her own best interest..

quote:

Originally posted by CQB60:
Regional, not global. I don’t see Chins moving on Taiwan in tandem with a Russian dust up in the caucuses

I would certainly hope, so but I’m not sure China thinks that way.

Those two leaders were just shaking hands and grinning at the beginning of the Olympics. They are in cahoots I’m afraid.

quote:

Originally posted by dynorat:
The chances of Russia invading go down as the price of oil goes up.

As long as it is above what it costs them to pull it out of the ground, they don't need the expense of an occupation.

I’d argue the exact opposite.

As the price of oil increases Russia becomes more immune from global sanctions.

They have the ability to ship everything to China now.

Killing energy independence here through restricting federal leases and pipeline closures is the predicate for most of this; then there was Afghanistan.

When push comes to shove, we'll probably have to throw Ukraine under the bus. It's not a NATO member, we have no defense treaty with them, and it's pretty much undefendiale on a geographic basis.

Taiwan is vastly more important. If we're going to defend some country we are non-obligated to defend, Taiwan would be the choice.

So does Russia v. Ukraine preface China v. Taiwan? I postulate it does.

Or flawed thinking?

quote:

Global War?

Is the Harris/Biden/RKlein/SRice administration smart enough to know this rule?

I am in the camp that Putin was screwing around with biden he made him scuttle the embassy

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:
Is the Harris/Biden/RKlein/SRice administration smart enough to know this rule?

They aren't smart enough to open a zip-lock bag so I guess their only recourse for fun is to open their easy-open box of Global thermonuclear war. hard to get it back in the box though. I'd like to hear the Prez's red-headed spokes-puke though before I really made up my mind.

Ok, so here is a big "What if". Let me preface this by saying, I don't watch news, or really care what politician's ass is showing at any given moment. If they are in politics, their ass is always showing as far as I am concerned. I have studied history (but not a scholar by any means) and know large scale BS can come out of small things. So not saying this is not a big deal, because a bad miscalculated outcome could screw up a lot of peoples shit. This is just a thought exercise. A "What If".

With that out of the way, everyone is saying Putin is playing everyone like a fiddle. He plays the peacemaker, he wins. He plays the dictator and invades , he wins. No one is going to stand in his way. Why not call his bluff and grant emergency entrance into NATO to Ukraine. Will he invade a NATO recognized partner? That's a big ballsy move if he does, and would show he wanted more than Ukraine all along. Also NATO countries steal his thunder of being the peacemaker. They say they made this move to protect a sovereign nation from a war mongering dictator threatening Ukraine's very way of life. Ukraine just wants to be free of fear of being invaded at any given moment. His asshattery forced this decision. All he had to do was show the world he was not lying when he said he was not going to invade and have his war games and move on.

I know it is not the diplomatic way, but damn, shit or get off the pot. I am tired of the "must be handled diplomatically, so everyone can save face". I call bullshit, sometimes the bully has to be called to the carpet and either back down or fight. But, the key to this whole thing is everyone has to be prepared to follow through if the bully thinks he can win.

There is a reason, I am not in charge.