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US to Oppose UK over Falklands if PM Does Not Increase Defence Budget
Pentagon officials are weighing the Falklands issue as leverage to push Britain toward higher defense spending and NATO burden-sharing, according to The Telegraph.

Pentagon officials are considering reviewing Washington's stance on the Falklands to pressure the United Kingdom toward higher defense spending; a senior US official said the UK would receive "special attention" as Washington assesses credible plans.
Nato countries committed to spending 3.5% of GDP on defense plus 1.5% on security infrastructure by 2035. Pentagon reviews inform decisions on US troop numbers in Europe, with Secretary Pete Hegseth expected to receive options in November.
Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon's top policy official, warned in Brussels that allies must move faster replacing capabilities. "We hope to see more from countries like the United Kingdom," Colby told reporters, urging major efforts to lead their own defense.
Chancellor John Healey's October 28 Budget is not expected to commit the UK to spending 3% of GDP on defense by 2030, despite US pressure. Officials argued current plans do not go far enough.
Washington maintains a neutral position on Falklands sovereignty, yet officials refuse to rule out altering their approach to encourage burden-sharing. A senior official stated, "nothing is being ruled out" regarding options for encouraging the sort of burden-sharing sought.

https://ground.news/article/us...efence-budget_114515

funny video

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Ic_NgTsfHkc

This message has been edited. Last edited by: downtownv,


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Posts: 10218 | Location: 18 miles long, 6 Miles at Sea | Registered: January 22, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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That is interesting. Under Article 6 of NATO Treaty, only areas under control of NATO countries which are north of the Tropic of Cancer would require a response by NATO.

As the Falklands are well south of this, NATO wouldn’t be involved so that means Britain is on its own there, as they were in 1982, but US and France did provide intelligence and logistical support then.

This would also mean that an attack on Hawaii and Guam would not involve NATO, but only the US.


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Posts: 3275 | Location: Falls of the Ohio River, Kain-tuk-e | Registered: January 13, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Interesting, I never really considered the NA part of NATO, as silly as that may seem. I wonder if Argentina could be convinced to make a play for the Malvinas again?
 
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Honky Lips
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The UK holding on to the Malvinas but giving up Diego Garcia is, so moronic I could spit.


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Posts: 9512 | Location: Great Basin | Registered: July 24, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
goodheart
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Well, given the current leadership in the UK, it's likely the Iron Lady herself would have opposed fighting for the Falklands under these circumstances. I mean, it's a joke to think they could defend them, right? Sheesh.


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The UK should be our number one enemy in the world.



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Posts: 21896 | Registered: September 21, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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We don’t have to oppose anything. The Islamic Republic of Britain is on its own with this one.
 
Posts: 55304 | Location: Tucson Arizona | Registered: January 16, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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No info or media interest on the subject down here. It’s a “local” debate as far as we are (not) concerned.

If you’d like some ironical and historical tidbit on the subject of the dispute, it could be said that US involvement started it all.
This is just my recollection, from 40 years ago, dedicated research. Hardly an argie will know this much.
When Argentina was being put together as a nation, there was an “official presence” on the islands. Said authorities enforced a fishing decree and captured an american ship. The ship was sent to Buenos Aires if i remember correctly. Some diplomatic unpleasantness followed with the US and an american navy vessel went to the islands and removed the mainland rep. As Argentina was undergoing a very confusing political period, the incident had no significant relevance at the time, bigger problems came first.

Don’t recall how the brits got there next but they used the american’s precedent of not recognizing argentina’s (whatever the name of the government was at the time) authority and declared the islands theirs.
Another commonly abused misconception is that the UN mandates both countries resolve the dispute under the decolonisation mandates. The ruling, dating from the mid 60s only asks that both contries discuss the subject. Under no obligation to show results. Brits cunningly convinced the argies NOT to put the talks yearly meetings reports in written so everything goes back to the square one when the talks resume following year.
This is just my outdated recollection.

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Posts: 12509 | Location: BsAs, Argentina | Registered: February 14, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Nato countries committed to spending 3.5% of GDP on defense plus 1.5% on security infrastructure by 2035. Pentagon reviews inform decisions on US troop numbers in Europe, with Secretary Pete Hegseth expected to receive options in November.

How about proposing a flat fee for NATO membership?
We are all equal, right?



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Posts: 27316 | Location: St. Louis, MO | Registered: April 03, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I recall that France was first to colonize Falklands, then GB a year later not really recognizing France's small settlement. Then Spain bought the settlement from France.


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Posts: 8531 | Location: Northern WV | Registered: January 17, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by downtownv:
Pentagon officials are weighing the Falklands issue as leverage to push Britain toward higher defense spending and NATO burden-sharing, according to The Telegraph.

That would be perfectly fine with the current Labor government.
Like they did with Diego Garcia, getting rid of any claims to the Falklands and casting it loose would be one less vestige of the UK's history to which they so abhor. In the minds of the Labor, Falkland Islands are a leftover anachronism to the UK's colonial past to which they will gleefully use it to shame, taunt and tease any person who has any British pride.
 
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quote:
Originally posted by corsair:
That would be perfectly fine with the current Labor government.
Like they did with Diego Garcia, getting rid of any claims to the Falklands and casting it loose would be one less vestige of the UK's history to which they so abhor.

Diego Garcia was occupied by the UK (and the US) only after expelling the closest thing to "native inhabitants." I want to say that there are no non-MOD (or US DoD) affiliated residents. Pull out, and it's just another PCS for those guys.

The Falklands are occupied by actual British citizens who view themselves as culturally and politically British. They've repeatedly turned down the prospect of self-governance or, worse, transfer of sovereignty. Not sure how the current government would sell that.
 
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quote:
Originally posted by 2BobTanner:
...This would also mean that an attack on Hawaii and Guam would not involve NATO, but only the US.

It is not as if NATO would be that effective.

NATO:
 
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quote:
Originally posted by ridewv:
I recall that France was first to colonize Falklands, then GB a year later not really recognizing France's small settlement. Then Spain bought the settlement from France.


AFAIK, there was never a french presence on the islands. French navigators were well aware of the general location of the islands that they named “Malouines” as the the first sailors to map their coordinates were from Saint Malo, France.
As the Pope had divided future lands to be discovered East or West of an imaginary line between Spain and Portugal (hence the portuguese colonies along the western african coastline), Columbus had no other choice than to go further past that line if he wanted to find new territories for Spain.
Have no clue how France position aas at the time of the discovery of America but i know they had no place claiming land for the french king that far south. Reason why Portugal got to colonize Brazil, BTW.

At one point in my life i was well versed in the subject and had a copy of the map of the Malouines, published well before any brit claim of discovery, that i got from a museum in France. Took me years to get it but you can find it online these days.

There was no buying or selling of territories that i’ve heard.

0-0


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Posts: 12509 | Location: BsAs, Argentina | Registered: February 14, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by DennisM:
quote:
Originally posted by corsair:
That would be perfectly fine with the current Labor government.
Like they did with Diego Garcia, getting rid of any claims to the Falklands and casting it loose would be one less vestige of the UK's history to which they so abhor.

The Falklands are occupied by actual British citizens who view themselves as culturally and politically British. They've repeatedly turned down the prospect of self-governance or, worse, transfer of sovereignty. Not sure how the current government would sell that.

That's the crux for Burnham's Labor govt, while they'd love to cast-off the Falklands in their view of 'righting past wrongs', there's British citizens on those islands.
 
Posts: 16209 | Location: Wine Country | Registered: September 20, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by 0-0:
If you’d like some ironical and historical tidbit on the subject of the dispute, it could be said that US involvement started it all.
This is just my recollection, from 40 years ago, dedicated research. Hardly an argie will know this much.

When Argentina was being put together as a nation, there was an “official presence” on the islands. Said authorities enforced a fishing decree and captured an american ship. The ship was sent to Buenos Aires if i remember correctly. Some diplomatic unpleasantness followed with the US and an american navy vessel went to the islands and removed the mainland rep. As Argentina was undergoing a very confusing political period, the incident had no significant relevance at the time, bigger problems came first.

Don’t recall how the brits got there next but they used the american’s precedent of not recognizing argentina’s (whatever the name of the government was at the time) authority and declared the islands theirs.


It wasn't so much that the British seized the opportunity in the 1830s to declare the island theirs out of the blue, rather they were reasserting an existing British claim that had been in place for 70ish years already.

Here's a quick and dirty history of claims to and possession of the Falkland Islands:


A British explorer discovered the uninhabited islands in 1690. The French built a settlement in the eastern Falklands in 1764, and the British built a settlement in the western Falklands in 1765. Both nations claimed the Falklands at that time. [Britain and France have competing claims, and both have possession of parts.]

The French surrendered their claim and their settlement to Spain in 1767. The Spanish then briefly captured the British settlement in 1770 before restoring it to Britain in 1771. [Britain and Spain have competing claims and both have possession of parts, except for that brief period of Spanish sole possession.]

The British settlement was abandoned in 1774, but Britain formally retained their claim to the islands. [Britain and Spain have competing claims, but the Spanish have possession.]

The Spanish settlement on the island was abandoned in 1811, but Spain also formally retained their claim to the islands. [Britain and Spain still have competing claims, but neither has possession.]

Argentina (then known as the United Provinces of the Rio de la Plata) declared independence from Spain in 1816, and asserted claim to all of Spain's territory in the South Atlantic, including the Falklands. Attempts were made in 1824 and 1826 to establish small settlements, but both failed. [Britain and Argentina both have claims, but neither has possession.]

In 1828 a settlement was successfully founded on the islands at the same location as the previous French/Spanish one, though this was actually a strange sort of quasi-Argentine/British colony, with settlers from both nations (and others) and with permission from both claimant nations. Argentina eventually appointed the German-born leader of these settlers as governor of the island and military representative of the Argentine government, but he also informally reported to the British government and apparently personally preferred the islands to fall under British authority. [Britain and Argentina have claims, but Argentina has possession, as the settlement was ostensibly under Argentine government control though effectively autonomous.]

The Falkland government's seizing of the American vessels over fishing disputes and retaliatory American raid by the USS Lexington you mentioned happened in late 1831, in which the settlement was partially destroyed and the government representatives were briefly arrested by the American captain for piracy before the charges were eventually dropped. The governor resigned and most of the settlers returned to the mainland in January 1832. A few settlers remained in squalid conditions, but there was no remaining governmental control. [Britain and Argentina have claims, but neither has actual possession.]

Argentina attempted to reestablish government control in October 1832, dispatching a small military expedition with an interim governor to the Falklands, but the soldiers mutinied within a month and killed the interim governor. [Britain and Argentina have claims, but still neither has possession.]

In December 1832-January 1833, an Argentine naval officer attempted again to reestablish government control of the Falklands settlement, but he arrived at the same time as a British naval squadron arrived to reassert Britain's claim to the islands, and the Argentine naval officer returned to the mainland. The British reestablished a formal British military outpost on the islands. [Britain and Argentina have claims, but Britain has possession.]

Finally, in 1840 a British "Crown Colony" was formally established under direct British rule, which continues through today, though later the terminology was changed to a "British Dependent Territory" starting in 1983 and now currently a "British Overseas Territory" as of 2002. Britain has retained possession throughout, except for a 2 month period in 1982 when Argentina invaded the Falklands before being removed by the British military in the Falklands War. [Britain and Argentina both have claims, but Britain retains possession.]

quote:
Originally posted by 0-0:
quote:
Originally posted by ridewv:
I recall that France was first to colonize Falklands, then GB a year later not really recognizing France's small settlement. Then Spain bought the settlement from France.


AFAIK, there was never a french presence on the islands.


As noted above, the French did have a settlement there for ~3 years from 1764-1767, before transferring the settlement over to Spain. It was originally Port Saint Louis, later becoming Puerto Soledad under the Spanish from 1767-1811.

This same location was later resettled as Puerto Luis under the Argentines from 1828-1831, and became Port Louis under the British from 1833-Today. Port Louis was the capital of the Falklands until 1845 when the capital was moved to Port Stanley.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: RogueJSK,
 
Posts: 35452 | Location: Northwest Arkansas | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Thank you RogueJSK for the refresher.

Been trying to forget the subject for the past 40 years, should have avoided the thread.

Between 1982 and 1987 i made myself an authority on the subject. Started with the first reported incidents in South Georgia. It was my second year at the university in Brussels and made me an instant pariah, everybody instinctly sidding with the British cause. Had to stand by myself and at least be able debate the subject. Following years I collected and studied the largest bibliography available in English, Spanish, French, Portuguese and Italian and interviewed some of the actors of the “Southern Unpleasantness” as I call it.

I worked every possible and related angle. Historical, political, geopolitical, social, economical, etc.

I assure you I have no side in this, never had.

Tried to donate my bibliography to the specialized area of my country’s Department of State or its Library on several opportunities and they showed no interest. Less than 200 meters distance between both locations.
In the end, bitterness got the best of me.

Made two good friends discussing the southern islands. The first was another PolSci student representing the british side, back in 82. He was sent in my direction by our professors. We’re still good friends and keep in touch. The other was tacfoley.
I still miss him sometimes.

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Posts: 12509 | Location: BsAs, Argentina | Registered: February 14, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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The crazy thing about it is the Falklands had a major oilfield discovery in the last few years. First oil expected in 2028, and that is why Argentina has a renewed interest in it. I posted about the discovery and tensions mounting in 2025 .

Pretty good July 2026 Financial Times article on it:
quote:
Argentina angered by prospect of oil boom in Falklands

For decades, the economy of the Falkland Islands has relied mainly on squid and sheep.

Now, however, the prospect of an oil boom stands to transform the tiny overseas territory — and reignite sovereignty tensions between Argentina and the UK.

Construction has begun on the infrastructure needed to drill Sea Lion, an oilfield 220km to the north of the Falklands. The first oil is expected in March 2028, reaching a maximum of 50,000 barrels per day in 2032.

While relatively small among offshore oil projects, Sea Lion has the potential to triple the Falklands’ current GDP.

The peak taxes and royalties projected by Sea Lion’s owners, Israel’s Navitas Petroleum and the UK’s Rockhopper, would be equivalent to some £80,000 a year for each of the roughly 3,500 islanders.

“Many have thought this is a white elephant, that it would never happen, but Navitas seems to be pushing through that fatigue,” said Stirling Harcus, who chairs the islands’ chamber of commerce. “Moving into the production phase will be transformational for the Falklands.”

Sea Lion’s advance has angered Argentina, 480km from the project, which lays claim to the islands and fought a two-month war with the UK over them in 1982.

Energy majors have stayed away from the Falklands, partly over geopolitical risk stemming from the sovereignty dispute. Oil price crashes in 2014 and 2020 sunk two previous efforts by small companies to develop the same field.

Rightwing President Javier Milei in April labelled Sea Lion a “unilateral and illegitimate” attempt to “advance on resources that belong to Argentina” and has vowed diplomatic efforts to halt it.

For the Falklands’ government, the oil revenues would fund much-needed updates to the islands’ creaking infrastructure. The territory has suffered repeated power cuts in recent years and has launched simultaneous projects to build a new diesel power station, wind turbines, waste plant and a port, collectively costing $350mn.

“We need to secure more income for the islands,” said Cheryl Roberts, a member of the Falklands’ eight-person legislative assembly. “This is the closest we’ve ever been.”

While Sea Lion reached its final investment decision for the production phase in December — a first for the Falklands — analysts warn high fixed costs of the remote offshore development continue to make the project sensitive to oil price changes and cost overruns.

The promised oil boom comes as the UK wrestles over the decline of its own North Sea fields. UK production from the North Sea has fallen 80 per cent since 2000, and ministers have stalled on authorising further licences due to climate policy.

Navitas projects annual government revenues from Sea Lion, mostly corporate taxes and royalties, to peak at £280mn in 2034. If that happens, the islands would be receiving more annual income from oil and gas than the UK, where revenues are expected to decline to £100mn by 2031.

Falklands legislators are discussing a sovereign wealth fund to manage the windfall. A representative from Guyana, which has transformed from a low-income country to the world’s newest petrostate, visited the islands in April to share tips on riding out an oil boom.

The islands’ government has pledged during previous rounds of exploration that part of any oil revenues would contribute to the territory’s defence and maintenance of its British Army garrison, which costs the UK tens of millions of pounds a year.

Roberts, the assembly member, said the idea was “a discussion that will be had with the UK government” as Sea Lion progressed, but added that “no specific timetable or agreed forum” had been set.

The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office described Sea Lion as an “entirely separate and unrelated issue” to defence, adding that the Falklands’ natural resources “belong to the overseas territory”.

Oil prices have fallen to about $70 per barrel in recent weeks, following a declared ceasefire between the US and Iran. A 2024 resource report commissioned by Navitas put Sea Lion’s break-even price at around $24 per barrel, while the company’s tax revenue projections assume a sustained oil price of $74 per barrel. Navitas declined to give an updated break-even estimate.

Still, work has begun on a revamp of the Falklands’ port and dock facilities. Pre-fabricated parts for a 160-bed staff hotel are due to arrive in the coming months, and a heliport to ferry offshore workers is also set to be built this year.

The extent of potential geopolitical pushback remains unclear.

Grace Livingstone, a historian and affiliated lecturer at the University of Cambridge, said that Argentina “may well have a legal case” against the project due to a UN resolution that prohibits “unilateral modifications” of the status quo in the islands.

Memories still linger of Argentina convincing its neighbours to blockade Falklands-flagged ships in 2011 over oil exploration. Such region-wide protests could increase logistical costs if repeated. Navitas declined to comment on where it plans to refine oil drilled at Sea Lion.

But Milei has sought to warm relations with London, quietly opening informal talks on defence co-operation in 2025 through which he aimed to lift the UK’s restrictions on British arms sales to Argentina. The efforts have stalled amid repeated leadership changes at Milei’s foreign and defence ministries.

Falklands officials and energy analysts privately shrug off Milei’s recent statements as sabre-rattling over sovereignty that is obligatory for Argentine politicians rather than a real threat.

However, some Argentine government officials warn of increased pressure to challenge Sea Lion, including in international courts, as the country approaches presidential elections next October. The Peronist opposition has accused Milei of deprioritising Argentina’s claim on the islands.

The islanders, meanwhile, are preparing for the biggest economic development since their fishing licence regime began in 1987. About 60 per cent of GDP currently comes from seafood exports.

Energy executives argue Sea Lion’s advance could spur development by several other companies with licences to drill the Falklands’ waters. Navitas has bought a 65 per cent stake in another offshore field adjacent to Sea Lion, with the aim of “creating a regional hub” of oil development, according to company filings.

About 230 newcomers are expected to settle in the capital, Stanley, in the project’s earlier years, boosting the population by around 8 per cent.

Navitas has promised to create about 120 direct and indirect jobs onshore, as well as around 240 offshore jobs, mostly for foreign workers.

But many on the islands remained “cautious” about such promises after previous derailed projects, said Roberts, the assembly member.

“For now it’s like the train has left the station, but we’re waiting for it to arrive,” she added.



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Posts: 25754 | Location: Northern Suburbs of Houston | Registered: November 14, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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How do you guys know this stuff? Seems esoteric to me. I swear SF has a PhD in everything.




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Posts: 15042 | Location: In the gilded cage | Registered: December 09, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by konata88:
How do you guys know this stuff? Seems esoteric to me. I swear SF has a PhD in everything.


I'm a big fan of history, especially modern military history, and have studied it extensively. Started with primarily WW1 and WW2, but at this point it is really all of the 20th Century, and a bit before/after. I'm always adding new topics to my repertoire.

I'm currently working on diving into the British conflicts in the later 20th century with which I'm less familiar, including stuff like Malaya. Kenya, the Falklands, and the Troubles in Northern Ireland. And with that it's necessary to research and understand the history and buildup to these conflicts, not just the fighting itself.
 
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