quote:

Originally posted by egregore:
I don't know how much of Iran's oil makes up the total, but it probably isn't that much.

Iran is the #4 crude oil producer in OPEC the past 2 years, and they are #3 in world terms of proven crude oil reserves. I joined the industry in the 90s, and Iran has always been a big producer with large reserves.

BTW, OPEC has the largest unused capacity (aka swing capacity) since they're fixing production (i.e. each country has a production allotment) to keep prices up. Their decision on whether or not to make up for an outage (e.g. Israel blowing up Iran oil & gas exports) is key. They're also infamous for indivdiual countries cheating (i.e. producing more than OPEC allotment) when there is money to be made making up for someone else's misfortune.

quote:

Originally posted by egregore:
The price of oil or gasoline? They aren't always in line with each other. In other words, a spike (or dip) in oil prices will take some time to show up at the pump.

Agreed on crude oil and gasoline not tracking day for day, but when looking at longer timelines gasoline prices track crude oil.

quote:

Originally posted by tatortodd:

You've fallen for political propaganda

Quick question for you, before I can respond to this.

Do you believe that politicians, far left democrats in this particular case, will do anything and everything to stay in power. Particularly in an election that their internal polling has to show they are under water in.

Or do you believe them to have lines they won’t cross?

Simple answer, yes or no.

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:

quote:

Originally posted by tatortodd:

You've fallen for political propaganda

Quick question for you, before I can respond to this.

Do you believe that politicians, far left democrats in this particular case, will do anything and everything to stay in power. Particularly in an election that their internal polling has to show they are under water in.

Or do you believe them to have lines they won’t cross?

Simple answer, yes or no.

(Q1) Yes and (Q2) no. They'll say anything, the legacy media won't fact check them, and the masses will remain uninformed. However, that's not the real question. The real question is can they actually manipulate prices to be lower?

The statement you linked from the White House propagandist was a sound bite aimed at uninformed voters not the people who could actually have an impact on lowering gasoline prices (e.g. NYMEX traders, buyers/planners for refineries, etc). The people who trade tens of thousands of barrels of gasoline understand the underlying fundamentals (e.g. gasoline inventory in a PADD region, crude oil inventory near the refineries, whether or not logistics chain in tact, utilization rates per PADD, etc.) and saw right through that measly drop in the bucket political stunt. That's why the White House propagandist statement and corresponding release of the faux gasoline reserve didn't change/manipulate prices in July.

Frankly, any White House regardless of political affiliation only has a few levers they can pull to actually lower gasoline prices short-term. Here are the prime two:

Waiving EPA low RVP (aka reformulated) gasoline requirements in metropolitan area(s) during the summer (i.e. allowing the sale of conventional RVP gasoline). This effectively increases the usable gasoline supply without refining more gasoline which is quite the contrast to their normal having over a dozen boutique summer grades of reformulated gasoline mandated. Also, conventional gasoline is cheaper to make and the lower price reflects it.

Waiving federal gasoline taxes

If they had an actual strategic gasoline reserve like I outlined in the lengthier post I made in March they could cause lower prices. As it stands, the faux gasoline reserve is 98.5% too small to be strategic, it's in the wrong location to be strategic, and it's the wrong equipment to be strategic.

Conversely, they sure can raise prices short-term with their propaganda (e.g. cause a run on the pumps). They also have significant long-term impact (both increase and decrease) on prices from opening/closing production blocks in US, gov't agencies adding/removing red tape, adding/removing "regulations" that Congress didn't vote on, etc.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: tatortodd,

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Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity

DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.

Fuel prices can be affected by government policies, no question. Ask any diesel owner who's paying for the ultra-low-sulfur requirement. The cancellation of that pipeline from Canada certainly did.



They don't say it out loud, but there are people who would like very much to see this.

quote:

Originally posted by tatortodd:
The real question is can they actually manipulate prices to be lower?

Now, I think you’re asking the right question. Biden offered a billion to Ukraine in taxpayer money to cover up crimes by his son. If you believe that they crave absolute power and do anything to get it, it’s not all that hard to picture any combinations of political payoffs to foreign players that do actually control output, or supply lines.

Everyone assumes that all the money to Ukraine and other places abroad came back by way of channels to the military industrial complex. How much of that money went to OPEC members? How many embargo’s and pallets of cash went to hostile nations we don’t know about to influence output and oil prices?

Plus maybe they get guarantees of future payments. And US “green energy” policy. On top of changing output after November 5 no matter who wins.

Gas prices influence how people vote. Will you really be surprised if Trump’s DOJ or state department reports in a year on any of the collusion above between Biden’s SoS and any given nation? Releasing oil from the strategic reserve may be anemic, but when you have billions in “aid” that won’t be tracked, you can buy a lot of grift.

My gas prices vary by $1 a gallon depending on my grocery purchases, or it's the week to buy Philips 66, or Shell. I have to buy gas to get to work, so I rarely pay attention. My car has a 15 gallon tank, and gets 25mpg. So I don't pay much attention, unless I score by Krogering

Sure! Gas is down to $4.89.9/gal here in San Mateo County at the discount places.

During Trump, gas at the same place was $1.81.9/gal, and it jumped overnight when the communists stole the vote.