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| Member |
A few years back I did a large (for me) purchase of Chipotle when it was around $700 a share. Not a month or two after they had the norovirus outbreak and the stock tanked. When the stock finally got back to $700 I sold. Look at it now at $1600 a share. | |||
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Member |
So if you have that, what's the point of $1,000 in CS? Year V | |||
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Member |
Ya win some and loose some. The funds used on this purchase were dividends from other stocks. So nothing out of pocket. ______________________________ Men who carry guns for a living do not seek reward outside of the guild. The most cherished gift is a nod from his peers. | |||
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| Member |
I've put some some pretty hefty down payments on two houses over the years. And yes, the boys will get it soon after my arrival at the pearly gates. ______________________________ Men who carry guns for a living do not seek reward outside of the guild. The most cherished gift is a nod from his peers. | |||
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| Member |
I wish you luck... Credit Suisse is probably one of the very last companies I'd be gambling on right now. Did you look into their delayed financials that they just released before dropping $1k on them? They have been consistently hemmhoraging money the past few years, many experts expect them to be the next bank going bust, and Saudi Arabia' national bank (who has been heavily investing in them) just announced they will no longer be providing any additional funding. I don't see how your plan to "buy low, sell high" is going to work out when they're in a consistent downtrend. They just lost more money in one year than they made in the previous ten. | |||
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| In the yahd, not too fah from the cah  |
While we're on the topic, I have about $100k in a deferred compensation plan in various funds. Is it worth pulling out right now while we wait and see if there's continued turmoil in the market, or is it better to wait it out. I lucked out during covid because I had about $40k in it and it wasn't set to invest, and I didn't realize until after the crash and got in while everything was low. | |||
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| Member |
Wait it out and continue to dollar cost average. I have been investing for several decades and I have never tried to time the market. It is a fool's game. | |||
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| Member |
^^^^^^^^^^^^^ It is a good short sale though. | |||
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His Royal Hiney |
If I had bought Apple at $3 a share, Lehman Brothers would be water off a duck’s back. "It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946. | |||
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| Member |
Individual stock pickers are the same personality as gamblers. You only hear about the wins. Math is just not on either of their sides. | |||
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| His Royal Hiney |
But I just broke your preconception because I talked about my miss in Apple. I can also talk about my Bausch and Lomb ride from $40 a share to $20 courtesy of Jim Cramer. I can also talk about Cano Petroleum that I rode from $8.52 a share in 2011 down to nothing and the brokerage for some reason couldn't journal it out of my account until 2022 so I had to look at that security every month. Then there was CalPines an energy company that I also rode down to zero. My wife is a better stock picker than I am. I gave her the job of managing our investments after I was depressed by the 2006 / 2008 crash. She bought VISA when it first came out and same with Mastercard. She bought Amazon and Google when I told her the stock prices were already too high at $1500. Good thing she didn't because she sold it a couple of years later at double the price. Now, we're not really individual stock pickers anymore. Actually, I'm mostly in cash except for the portion of our portfolio with a 20 year time horizon and it's in VTI. On that, I'm currently down 2.4% but I don't care because in 20 years, that's going to be a nothing dip. My point is: let's not paint with a broad brush. Whole companies are built around picking individual stocks that will break out of the pack. Are the risks higher with individual stocks? Damn right, they are. But just because you don't have the balls and the knowledge to pick individual stocks doesn't mean that people who do are just simply rolling the dice. "It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946. | |||
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| The Ice Cream Man |
I... No one makes an investment decision off "having balls." That is a gambler's mindset. If you're good at playing numbers, great. As a general rule, there are a minuscule amount of people who make real, researched, individual stock picks. All of the ones I've met are all exceptionally bright, highly driven, and part of a very well-paid team, with very tight foci. | |||
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| No More Mr. Nice Guy |
Let it ride, imho. We are getting towards the bottom. It may go down another 10%, or more. Or less. The market may stay stagnant for a few months. Or years. The important datapoint is that when the market rebounds it historically bounces up fast. There are a handful of days within the rebound that are big, and you don't want to miss those. They are a significant part of the upswing. My guess is that the market will go down a bit, then stay flat for many months during a recession. That makes it a good time to be buying into the market in increments. You're already in, so I think you're better off holding on to a diverse set of funds. Your downside risk is not so big, considering the markets are already down quite a bit. One of the questions to ask yourself about what you already own is if you would buy it today at today's price? The other question is how soon do you need the $? If within a year or two, that $ should be in safe places, which is not the stock market. | |||
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| Member |
I’m not painting with a broad brush I’m stating facts because it has been studied. If the average person picks individual stocks they will do much worse than the market over their lifetime. The companies you mention who pick stocks are people who have gone to school and have studied it for years and most of them aren’t very good at it. It used to be much easier when valuation was the determining factor. That’s not necessarily the case anymore. Grab some good mutual funds and you will be much better off in the long run. There’s a bunch of them that have returned 8-10% over their lifetime. | |||
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| Partial dichotomy |
I don't know what studies you've read and am not disputing them, but I think there are far more successful individual investors than you are aware of. And the beauty of being an individual investor is that you can buy shares of some companies that mutual funds don't have the ability to buy. I can attest that my investments have far exceeded the S&P averages over various time frames. And I've had some doozy bad picks too. I'll own up to every one of them. But I don't regret my overall success investing....not gambling in the stock market. SIGforum: For all your needs! Imagine our influence if every gun owner in America was an NRA member! Click the box>>>  | |||
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| Eschew Obfuscation |
Yeah, but he really nailed it with his Theranos recommendation! Umm, wait a second.  _____________________________________________________________________ “Civilization is not inherited; it has to be learned and earned by each generation anew; if the transmission should be interrupted for one century, civilization would die, and we should be savages again." - Will Durant | |||
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| Victim of Life's Circumstances  |
Dogs of the Dow beats the indexes and it is individual stocks. I've been investing that way since before the Gardner Brothers gave blue chip dividend investing a name. I'm 72 now and retired at 46 thanks to the stock market. Several ways to skin a cat  ________________________ God spelled backwards is dog | |||
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| Eschew Obfuscation |
I’d be interested to hear how well Hindenburg’s clients did shorting Adani Group. _____________________________________________________________________ “Civilization is not inherited; it has to be learned and earned by each generation anew; if the transmission should be interrupted for one century, civilization would die, and we should be savages again." - Will Durant | |||
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| His Royal Hiney |
If you look at the post I was responding to, my reference to "balls" directly references to the term "gamblers" that was used. And I did say talk about having the "balls and the knowledge to pick individual stocks." There's also the law of "regressing to the mean" which implies that everyone may have their hot streaks but they eventually return to the mean. But because their transactions involve costs not associated with broad based market indices, their long term performance tend to lag those indices. "It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946. | |||
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| His Royal Hiney |
But like I said, I broke your preconceived idea about individual stock pickers because in the very post you responded to, I talked about my individual stock miss, not win. So "individual stock pickers are the same personality as gamblers" is not a fact; it's your perspective and it's not even correct. Most gamblers know the mathematical odds so they can calculate the probability of winning versus losing; there are no published odds for stock picking from which you can derive your probability of winning versus losing despite academic attempts at valuing options. And you talking about mutual funds show you're behind the times. 1) Since you say the companies are the people who have gone to school have studied stock picking aren't very good at it, guess where they go work at? The mutual funds. 2) You say there's a bunch of mutual funds that have returned 8-10% over their lifetime. Guess what the stock market has returned over its lifetime? 10% flat, so your very best mutual fund can only keep you even with the stock market as a whole while your so-so best lags the market by 2 percent. 3) Mutual funds are much less than what they used to be since the advent of ETFs that can be traded intraday and not have to wait until the end of market day. "It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946. | |||
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