I know it keeps getting held up and I know it keeps getting reduced, but can anyone tell me the chances this travesty will actually pass?

Something will probably pass…
Once they find a way to get Manchin on board.
It will be nominally in the range of 1.5 trillion which they will call ‘scaled down’.
But it’s a gimmick. The devil is in the details. They will ‘sunset’ programs in 3 years to reduce the cost knowing they will be extended.

Something will pass, just so there can be face saving and people on all side can say "we tried". My hope is that only an infrastructure (real infrastructure) bill passes and that's it. I'm not overly optimistic.

When a critical mass of politicians see their reelection chances increase as a result of the handouts, then it’ll pass. The magic number will be $1-1.75 trillion.

Yeah, I suspect they will get something thru. A revised Infrastructure bill might just be it. Manchin seems steadfast in his resistance to this monstrosity, especially after Virginia.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
Something will pass, just so there can be face saving and people on all side can say "we tried".

Too late for that. The wingnuts on the Left are already furious the recon bill isn't $6+ trillion. $3.5T in their view was an embarrassment and disgrace. If their progressive reps cave and vote for a bill in the $1-$1.5T range that excludes most of the red meat they have been promised, they'll revolt. On the other hand non-progressive Dem's saw what happened last night in Virginia and especially New Jersey and are already trying to find a way out of passing a Recon bill or at least dragging the Repubs into some sort of bipartisan cluster**** (a far more dangerous and possible outcome). In the end, the transportation bill gets passed specifically because 12 retarded RINO's added their names to it. The other bill, I'm not so sure it gets passed at all (assuming RINO's don't get sucked in again).

I agree that something will pass. Nobody will know the details since members of Congress do not read these things. The WSJ follows the changes in the bill daily. My personal concern is taxes. They have gone from increasing the tax rate, to taxing billionaires to now taxing millionaires since there are more of them. A lot of crazy Sanders socialist policies are out the window, but some remain. The House will send something to the Senate by the end of the year.

Eh, the first infrastructure bill passed by the Senate is what AOC et al (30 strong out of a 435-member House, I think) said they would not allow to be passed unless it was passed in conjunction with or before the Reconciliation bill.

One of the great unknowns of the moment is which way AOC and her friends will jump. The debate over whether Virginia proved that the American people wanted more or less of what the progressives want actually started within a couple of hours after the polls closed. AOC et al are still fighting to establish the primacy of their woke-ist BS in the Democratic Party, and they know full well that Pelosi and the Dem Establishment are using Virginia as a reason to tone the woke-ist stuff down.

Pelosi and the Establishment are arguing that the American people (via their members of Congress) want less, and if AOC et al agree to that then Pelosi can pass something just to be able to say that the Dems in the House passed something. At that point the House will also pass the Infrastructure bill that's already been voted out of the Senate.

AOC et al were doubling down on the argument that the American people want more of what the progressives are selling. They've also made what they think of as a lot of concessions to pare the Reconciliation bill down to something Manchin and Sinema will accept, so they aren't likely to tolerate more concessions. It sounds like (at the moment), they're going to keep insisting the Reconciliation bill pass before the Infrastructure bill passes. If they stick to that, then there is a chance that the Reconciliation bill won't pass.

If the other Dems figure that they're going to lose the House in '22 anyway, then that chance increases. The longer AOC et al hold out, the more likely conventional wisdom says it is that the Dems lose the House. The more they demand, the better they position themselves with the progressive base for '24 and for races for other offices in '22. They're sick of concessions to Manchin and Sinema too, so they're not likely to support many more. In fact they may start demanding more free stuff gets added back in since Pelosi recently slipped paid parental leave back in. There's no reason the Repubs, Manchin or Sinema would vote for anything worse than currently exists, so the Reconciliation bill dies.

Passage (of something) is still marginally more likely than not, just because Biden, Pelosi and a lot of Dems are so invested in it. But Manchin and Sinema have to be feeling just a little vindicated by Virginia, so I don't think they're motivated to budge too far. The question (IMHO) is whether the crazies dig their heels in, and I'm thinking that might be pretty likely.

Manchin and a couple of others are demanding the CBO score the bill and report it's real cost.

I am guessing it will come in the multi-trillions.

That puts the moderates between a rock and a hard place.

If it comes in at 3 trillion or more it will be back to the drawing board after the holidays.

Yeah, If AOC & the squad read the tea leaves better, they could already have had one in the 1.5 neighborhood. Eventually her brain will realize could be big changes next Fall, settle for less.

I hope nothing passes, more sit on the fence after VA. The devil is truly in the details. We muddle in utter foolishness while the likes of China move forward. That is, after they get up from ROTFL(their)FAO.

I believe it will pass the house. The senate I am not sure of. Right now they are adding all sorts of things back into it that the senate has said no to. The reason being Pelosi needs to get this hot potato out of her hands. The longer it lingers in the house the worse she, and the democrats, look. I believe she is fed up with here caucus and just wants to be done with it. So add back in the progressives wish list items, vote, and send it over to the senate. Then she did her job and it becomes the senators problem.

I think Pelosi is worried about it not passing the house. If she doesn’t put all the crap the commies on the far left want, she doesn’t have the votes. Now with the election results and huge pushback at the polls, the moderate democrats in districts that can sway blue and red are terrified. I’m not saying a bill won’t pass but this is looking more and more like a hot grenade in Pelosi’s lap. I think adding in the things the senate said no to, is hoping she doesn’t lose the Reps scared of losing their gravy train jobs next November. So far, the senate is holding fast that they won’t vote for the nonsense that Pelosi is planning to push to the upper chamber.

Is general amnesty still in the bill?

I'm not so sure anything is going to pass in President Brandon's agenda:

House Democrats are, as the New York Times puts it, "scrambling to line up the votes needed to push through a $1.85 trillion social safety net, climate and tax bill," as moderate Democrats raise concerns over the cost after being "spooked by Tuesday's electoral drubbing."

quote:

Originally posted by sourdough44:
Yeah, If AOC & the squad read the tea leaves better, they could already have had one in the 1.5 neighborhood. Eventually her brain will realize could be big changes next Fall, settle for less.

I hope nothing passes, more sit on the fence after VA. The devil is truly in the details. We muddle in utter foolishness while the likes of China move forward. That is, after they get up from ROTFL(their)FAO.

Not sure the Progressive Caucus cares if it passes without their agenda items present, they have already come out to say that McAwful wasn't progressive enough and that is why he lost.

quote:

Originally posted by HRK:

quote:

Originally posted by sourdough44:
Yeah, If AOC & the squad read the tea leaves better, they could already have had one in the 1.5 neighborhood. Eventually her brain will realize could be big changes next Fall, settle for less.

I hope nothing passes, more sit on the fence after VA. The devil is truly in the details. We muddle in utter foolishness while the likes of China move forward. That is, after they get up from ROTFL(their)FAO.

Not sure the Progressive Caucus cares if it passes without their agenda items present, they have already come out to say that McAwful wasn't progressive enough and that is why he lost.

^^^This. And on the other side, I see non-progressives in vulnerable districts asking for CBO scores and being concerned about voting for a bill with all the progressive wish list items in it. This isn't over just yet, and I'm not sure Nancy is going to be able to unload something to the senate to deal with.

Pelosi came out a bit ago and said they are going to vote on the BIF (bipartisan infrastructure bill) tonight and also vote on a "rule" to vote on the BBB (build back better) bill at a later date.

But as of about 20 minutes ago it does not seem like the progressives are going along with that.

^^ (Chortles and rubs his hands gleefully.)

Protesters barricading Manchin in his car and yelling “Fuck Joe Manchin” will surely woo him to their side…

https://www.foxnews.com/politi...to-run-them-over.amp

A group of climate change protesters boasted about blockading Democratic West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin's car on Thursday, accusing the moderate lawmaker of trying to run them over in his attempt to drive through a parking garage.

The senator has also gotten attention for the vehicle he was driving.

"We blockaded Joe Manchin's car and he tried to run us over," a TikTok video posted by @hungry4climatejustice showing the confrontation states.

The clip shows a group of protesters standing in front of and behind a luxury vehicle in a parking garage, holding a banner while at least one person leaned on the vehicle's hood. Others filmed themselves while yelling at the driver. The constant sound of a car horn can be heard throughout but it was not clear if it was Manchin honking.

"This is Joe Manchin's car slowly pressing into our peaceful protesters," a person says. "We want to live! We want to live!" That phrase, along with "F--k Joe Manchin," was the rallying cry of the demonstration aimed at convincing Manchin to support President Biden's multitrillion-dollar Build Back Better spending package.

Thomas Kennedy, who describes himself on Twitter as a Democratic National Committee member and "known agitator," shared a different view of the incident posted by the group Hunger Strike 4 Justice.

Kennedy tweeted, "Watch Joe Manchin drive his car into protestors who are demanding that he stop blocking climate provisions in the Build Back Better package on behalf of fossil fuel and other corporate interests. What an awful, selfish, greedy man."

A third video posted by Hunger Strike 4 Climate Justice shows another angle of the confrontation. The group said in its message, "[Sen. Joe Manchin], is the money worth selling our futures downriver? Is the money that green? Is it that good for you? How’d that Maserati feel while you drove into us this morning? #WeWantToLive"

No one appeared to be injured in any of the videos.

The incident occurred Thursday morning where Manchin docks his houseboat in Washington, D.C. By the afternoon, the word "Maserati" was trending on Twitter, as users criticized the senator for driving the luxury vehicle.

Manchin's office did not immediately respond to Fox News' request for comment.

^^ Sways people of weak conviction to their principles. I don't have any opinions on the man other than he is trying to represent his contingency either because of his beliefs or desire to be reelected. I don't know which.