quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:
I do not think the quote from the movie was quite accurate. Germany had some great technology but could not manufacture it. That is why we stole their rocket scientists after the war. That is a far cry from arguing we have trucks and they had horses.

Technology will be what wins wars, look at the simple things Ukraine used to battle Russia. I Would have never thought that simple drones would be so effective. Any world war in the future with major powers will end with nuclear weapons. At least that is my view.

I think you nailed and missed the point simultaneously. No one disputes that the Germans had incredible technology, just that they didn’t have the manufacturing capacity. That’s… exactly the point of this thread.

We have incredible technology, quite ahead of China in many respects. But in the words attributed to Stalin “Quantity has a quality of its own”.

In many ways, we resemble Germany and the UK in WW2 (technology + navy), with China being the US and Soviet Union combined (manufacturing + population).

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Originally posted by reloader-1:

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:
I do not think the quote from the movie was quite accurate. Germany had some great technology but could not manufacture it. That is why we stole their rocket scientists after the war. That is a far cry from arguing we have trucks and they had horses.

Technology will be what wins wars, look at the simple things Ukraine used to battle Russia. I Would have never thought that simple drones would be so effective. Any world war in the future with major powers will end with nuclear weapons. At least that is my view.

I think you nailed and missed the point simultaneously. No one disputes that the Germans had incredible technology, just that they didn’t have the manufacturing capacity. That’s… exactly the point of this thread.

We have incredible technology, quite ahead of China in many respects. But in the words attributed to Stalin “Quantity has a quality of its own”.

In many ways, we resemble Germany and the UK in WW2 (technology + navy), with China being the US and Soviet Union combined (manufacturing + population).

I was addressing the quote from the movie, that was it. I know that our manufacturing is why we won. I do not think that is the case now due to nuclear power. We have enough nukes although we have deleted much of our conventional munitions. Any future world war between nuclear powers will come down to nukes. Nobody with nukes will allow themselves to be defeated and taken over by the enemy. Nobody.

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Nobody with nukes will allow themselves to be defeated and taken over by the enemy. Nobody.

True, only in an ideal world. But if the enemy is your own, and they are corrupting and destroying you from within, and they succeed, all the nukes at your disposal would have been been useless. Just imagine the DSA in simultaneous control of the White House and Congress. All this talk about fighting a foreign enemy is meaningless, if we ignore the growing problem at home until it’s too late.

quote:

Originally posted by sigmonkey:
The 13 colonies did not have the privilege and benefit of privilege of population and industrial capacity.

They had balls and "enough of their shit".

Balls men, do you have them?

The Revolutionary War was fought by the 13 colonies on home soil, where the colonists lived. They were highly motivated, for they had everything to lose. If they lost, they would lose their homes, families, and hang for treason. They also believed in the righteousness of their cause.

The British red coats were fighting far from home and far less motivated about retaining some distant colonies.

It's easier to have the balls to fight when you are on home turf and have everything to lose.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

It's easier to have the balls to fight when you are on home turf and have everything to lose.

I believe it is wired into our brains by evolution to be highly motivated to violence when our home is under attack.

Fighting isn't the conclusion derived by following a logical analysis that there is everything to lose by not fighting. It is a visceral response from the lizard brain.

It's why we see the local populations in foreign lands joining the local tyrants to fight the USA even though the tyrants are proven terrible for them.

Any attack on the soil of the USA would rally a large response from the population.

There is a pretty good documentary on German “Wonder weapons” during WWII and how the lust for them helped lead to Germany’s defeat.

A long time advantage is the fact we have thousands of miles of ocean on both sides between us and any of our serious adversaries.
That was especially important when it made our industries and civilians out of reach of their weapons.
We could bomb theirs.
Planes didn't have any way to reach us and ships with large numbers were also too far away to present meaningful threats.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:
The British red coats were fighting far from home and far less motivated about retaining some distant colonies.

The British were also embroiled in a larger fight against the global threats of France, Spain, and the Netherlands, including major actions to defend their Carribbean, Mediterranean, African, and Asian territories, that all strained the British Empire both militarily and economically and distracted from being able to devote their full attention and military might towards the American revolutionaries.

They were much more concerned about losing their Caribbean sugar plantations, or losing Gibraltar, or facing a combined French-Spanish invasion of the home islands, than they were losing the 13 American colonies, which would be an unfortunate but manageable loss to the empire.

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Originally posted by reloader-1:
tatortodd, very well said. I worked in O&G myself, China is 70% powered by coal. Factories don’t really run on oil, and they produce (along with Russia and Central Asia pipelines) roughly 7 mbpd, or about 50% of current needs in a non wartime scenario.

Given their strategic reserve, and assuming a 7 mbpd drawdown, China can go an entire year without a single crude delivery via ship if they top up their reserves.

Also, their oil consumption would drop drastically in wartime, as they would limit much of the logistics/commercial usage.

We're 90+% agreement.

I'm aware of the coal for electricity but the logistics of raw goods to factories and produced goods out of factories depend on crude oil. That is their vulnerability shifting from peace time manufacturing (TVs, chips) to war time manufacturing (eg drones).

Also, they have a 11mbpd crude oil production shortfall assuming the increase in military usage makes up for civilian wartime curtailments. This is the reason they've been buying into the Western Super Major projects the last 15 years (ie they want to learn how to produce oil & gas efficiently).

Regardless, their massive SPR certainly puts them in a good position for future embargo's and blockades. 218 days at my rate and 343 days at your rate.

The good news is we're a better producer so our deficit is 2 to 2.5 mbpd so even our current irresponsible SPR levels is 150 days (To be fair, one Gulf Coast Cat 4 or 5 hurricane and it's 17 days assuming the massive leap of faith the nearly 50 year old marginally maintained facilities can be drained to 0). Bring it back to Trump 45 levels and we're 300 days.

China is done. We don't have to fire a shot.

They have a demographic aging problem they will not be able to fix.

By 2050, they will lose more people than the whole population of the USA due to aging.

We have a similar problem, but we are making it up with immigration. They don't want immigration.

Their GDP per person is tiny compared to the USA.

If the shooting starts, we will win without a problem unless it goes nuclear and nobody wins.

China in a war will further decrease its ability to reproduce. The only country with a healthy population reproducing is India.

China, Italy, and Japan all have declining populations that will destroy the countries without firing a shot.

China has us right where they want us. They are encouraging Iran to stay the course. Meanwhile, we expend our stockpile of offensive armament on Iran and FMS (Foreign Military Sales). Our stockpiles are approaching critical levels. Our Strategic Oil Reserves are already at or below critical levels. China soon becomes the King of the Hill. Our beloved country has lost the stratgic and technical ability to mount a Wartime Production effort.

I pray to God I am seriously wrong.i am not a defeatist or conspiracy therorist, I would gladly defend my county to the death if called.

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China has us right where they want us. They are encouraging Iran to stay the course. Meanwhile, we expend our stockpile of offensive armament on Iran...

Yeah, the longer we stay in Iran, the weaker we become, relative to China.

It is interesting that the rise of Islam was directly related to the exhaustion of the Roman and Persian empires fighting gargantuan wars.

Not the same today, of course, but fighting a war depletes your ability to fight another. Harold Godwinson of England is a good example.

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Originally posted by sig2392:
…We have a similar problem, but we are making it up with immigration...

Not to be pedantic but that dog aint hunting too good geographically in Minnesota…or Manhattan…and occupationally in the IT or medical fields…wherever fraud, corruption, and allegiance remains endemic to imported tribal cultures we are ill prepared for the result…but it sure feels and sounds good about how enlightened we have become.

The sample is not constrained to just a domestic model — similar enlightened endeavors have become a net drain vice salvation on much of western Europe. This is a harbinger of naive altruism and refusal to acknowledge facts versus feelings before the first shot is ever fired. You don’t always get to choose your enemies; sometimes they choose you!

Prepare accordingly — I subscribe to similar thoughts as Johnny 3Eagles on this one!

Immigration without cultural assimilation is not the panacea the talking points convey!

Godspeed and Good Hunting, Always

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Immigration without cultural assimilation is not the panacea the talking points convey!

Immigration without assimilation = surrender

If we get into a hot war with China who is going to buy all our debt so we can finance the weapons we need to build to wage war against them? Going into WW2 our debt was relatively low. If we had to finance a war on the scale it would take to defeat China, we'd be tapped out.

Ayup — Not dissimilar to the immigration situation previously referenced, a fiscal event horizon has already been crossed when one objectively accounts for exponents and our government’s insatiable spending behavior. Coupled with irresponsible amounts of leverage endemic throughout our economy and I suspect you might want to buckle your helmets on boys and girls.

Now, before invoking the boss’s ire about unduly politicizing a topic or projecting a narrative of doom and gloom, the Fed’s 10 year is approaching 5% and I argue it is still grossly manipulated and likely should be pressing upwards of 15%. The Fall of ‘26 could be telling 1929…”Here, hold my beer and watch this…” before any shots are ever fired!

In the context of this thread, economies are not unlike military capability or industrial capacity in that they are and always have been both a lever of power to be employed and a measure of strength to be actioned. Under impartial scrutiny, the economic underpinnings of our modern society have benefited many of us greatly, but are not reflective of a healthy, robust, and resilient system able to sustain a deliberate, targeted attack. A “glass cannon” in gamer speak!

I assure you that particular assault vector is currently in the quiver of any peer adversary and is a weapon of mass destruction simply waiting to be fired as either an opening salvo or a coup de grace — If the CCP’s grasp over its people is tenuous (as some have suggested) in lite of their economic and demographic future, I’ll paraphrase what was mentioned previously “lt is unmitigated hubris to presume you always get to choose your adversary; sometimes the enemy chooses you…”

Not to say conflict with PRC is inevitable, but I believe we were very fortunate that the Cold War ended as it did. Are we so fortunate that scenario repeats and if so, which side of the equation will we find ourselves on if this current/future situation unfolds in a similar manner?
Prepare accordingly!

Godspeed and Good Hunting, Always

China and other nations are reducing their exposure to US treasuries already. So it isn't necessarily a worry if we end up in some kind of hot conflict with China. It would be a temporary challenge which likely would be solved with the Federal Reserve buying the bonds via printing dollars. Long term, of course, that simply fuels inflation.

But it is a worry overall whether or not we end up in a hot conflict with China. Treasury auctions are getting shaky. Not only are yields rising, but there are fewer institutional buyers, and auctions are happening more often. Longer term debt is getting rolled into shorter term because there aren't buyers for long term. Much of that longer term debt was issued at very low dividend rates, so they are converting cheap long term debt into expensive short term debt.

quote:

Treasury auctions are getting shaky. Not only are yields rising, but there are fewer institutional buyers, and auctions are happening more often. Longer term debt is getting rolled into shorter term because there aren't buyers for long term. Much of that longer term debt was issued at very low dividend rates, so they are converting cheap long term debt into expensive short term debt.

Most people have no idea how serious this is, or how much more "shadow debt" we have than the official debt. Our unfunded obligations, including SS, medicare, and medicaid make our official debt look small. We spend more on our military than any country in the world, but not for much longer.

The fact of the matter is that half of the people in this country are not net taxpayers, which means that half of the people in this country are supporting the other half.
The half paying the bills are starting to get angry and maybe even somewhat jealous of the other half not paying for their own existence. It's going to get spicy before long.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:
Most people have no idea how serious this is...

Yeah, I'm one of those people, I guess, if I gave it any thought at all. For years- decades, even- I have been hearing this gloom and doom talk from people who sound like they know what they're talking about- and then nothing happens. I can't take it seriously. Apparently, everything is going to fall apart at any moment, yet it never happens. Reality defeats the hypothetical.