Canada’s Trump Trap: A Trade War No One Wins

https://theconservativeweekly....rue&utm_medium=email

Canada’s leaders are staring down a barrel, and it’s loaded with Donald Trump’s tariff threats. As of today, March 13, 2025, the U.S. president has Canada’s economy in his crosshairs, with 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum already in effect since midnight Wednesday, and a broader wave looming April 2 that could slam everything from cars to maple syrup. Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford are talking tough—Carney’s preaching a “hockey-style” victory, Ford’s flirting with power export cuts—but the numbers tell a different story: Canada’s outgunned, outmatched, and teetering on a cliff after a rough decade. This isn’t a winnable fight, and the data backs it up.

Start with the raw math. The U.S. sucks up 75% of Canada’s exports—$680 billion in goods last year, per U.S. Commerce Department figures. That’s two-thirds of Canada’s GDP, while Canada’s slice of U.S. trade barely nudges 1%. It’s a 20-to-1 mismatch, a David-and-Goliath tale where Goliath’s got a tank. Trump’s latest moves—25% on metals now, cars next—could shrink Canada’s GDP by 2.6%, or $78 billion, according to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. That’s $1,900 per Canadian annually, a gut punch to a middle class already stretched thin. Meanwhile, the U.S. might lose 1.6% of GDP—$467 billion, or $1,300 per person—but it’s a nick for an economy that’s less trade-reliant at 24% of GDP.

Canada’s not strolling into this brawl fresh. A decade under Justin Trudeau left scars: wages flatlined since 2016, per Statistics Canada, while household debt hit 184% of disposable income—the G7’s worst, says the OECD. Home prices in Toronto and Vancouver devour 70% of median income, and economic growth since 2019 ranks dead last among 50 developed nations, per IMF data. Half of Canadians can’t cover a $200 emergency, and 40% live hand-to-mouth. A Nanos poll found 70% think the country’s broken; 42% are plotting an exit. This is a nation limping, not leaping, into Trump’s ring.

Trump’s playbook isn’t new—he’s wielded tariffs like a club before. In 2018, he hit Canadian steel with 25% and aluminum with 10%; Canada retaliated, and both sides felt the sting until a 2019 deal cooled it off. This time, he’s citing fentanyl and border security, though U.S. Customs data shows Canada’s share of fentanyl seizures dropped 97% from December 2024 to January 2025—down to half an ounce. The real driver? Leverage. He’s got it, and Canada doesn’t. The USMCA shields some trade—34% of Canada’s exports dodge tariffs for now—but April’s escalation could torch 120,000 auto jobs in Ontario alone, per industry estimates.

Carney and Ford could play smarter, not harder. Canada’s got cards—border security tweaks, fentanyl crackdowns, even slashing its own trade barriers (like the 270% dairy tariff that irks Trump). Give him wins that cost little and help Canadians—cheaper milk, less red tape—while dodging the existential hits. Instead, they’re posturing. Carney’s “we’ll win” bravado ignores the math; Ford’s brief electricity tariff on Michigan was a stunt he scrapped after one call with Howard Lutnick. It’s theater, not strategy, and it’s burning time Canada doesn’t have.

The fallout’s already brewing. Inflation’s ticking up—TD Economics pegs a 2.5-3% spike if tariffs stick—and the Bank of Canada might slash rates 50-75 basis points to soften the blow, weakening the loonie further. Auto plants, steel mills, and small businesses are bracing for a squeeze. An election’s coming, and voters might punish this gamble, but the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre keeps fumbling his pitch. Until then, Canada’s stuck with leaders betting on Trump’s bluff—except he’s not bluffing. He’s proven it.

This isn’t a trade war Canada can win—it’s a survival test it might not pass. The data’s clear: economic fragility, lopsided trade, and a foe who thrives on chaos. Carney and Ford need to ditch the swagger, cut a deal, and save what’s left. Pride’s a luxury Canada can’t afford right now.

As an American I see what is happening and the reasons why.

As a Canadian I think it’s absolutely how you treat your neighbor and closest ally. From the Canadian perspective with friends like the US ready to destroy you over trinkets, who needs enemies.

quote:

An election’s coming, and voters might punish this gamble, but the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre keeps fumbling his pitch. Until then, Canada’s stuck with leaders betting on Trump’s bluff—except he’s not bluffing. He’s proven it.

This isn’t a trade war Canada can win—it’s a survival test it might not pass. The data’s clear: economic fragility, lopsided trade, and a foe who thrives on chaos. Carney and Ford need to ditch the swagger, cut a deal, and save what’s left. Pride’s a luxury Canada can’t afford right now.

Pierre Poilievre is going to have to up his game and hone his pitch. He should call Howard Lutnick.

quote:

Originally posted by nhtagmember:
As an American I see what is happening and the reasons why.

As a Canadian I think it’s absolutely how you treat your neighbor and closest ally. From the Canadian perspective with friends like the US ready to destroy you over trinkets, who needs enemies.

As an American I LOVE what Trump is doing. As a Canadian I see the utter destruction coming of a country I loved. Canada deserves everything they have coming so long as they support the leaders of the last 10 years. Sad to see.

quote:

Originally posted by nhtagmember:
As an American I see what is happening and the reasons why.

As a Canadian I think it’s absolutely how you treat your neighbor and closest ally. From the Canadian perspective with friends like the US ready to destroy you over trinkets, who needs enemies.

But's not trinkets, and all Trump is asking is for a level playing field. If Canada doesn't want tariffs enacted on its exports to the USA, all it has to do is remove the tariffs it has on imports from the USA.

I understand the government officials being scared of losing an income stream that benefits them personally, but the lowering of tariffs will likely be a boon to their economy since it will lower the costs of the goods coming into Canada, stimulating sales and economic growth.

Do they care more about themselves, or their countrymen? (Since the Left is in charge in Canada, this is a rhetorical question.)


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Happy Schumer Shutdown Day!

Democrats are threatening to shut down government by not supporting the Continuing Resolution (CR) measure that passed the House and is about to reach the floor of the Senate. This threat is awesome, and we can only hope it happens.

Personally, I think Chuck Schumer will tell eight of his Senate members to vote cloture on the CR (they need 60 votes) and then tell them to vote against the underlying bill on the floor (where only 51 are needed for passage). However, the looney leftists in the base are stomping their feet and telling Schumer not to support the Trump CR measure.

If the CR is not passed, the govt goes into “shutdown mode” at midnight tonight and all “nonessential” employees, as determined by the Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought, are laid-off.

This is perfect for DOGE and the objectives of shrinking government very quickly. Even Politico notes the Democrats are about to step on a rake.

WASHINGTON DC – […] There’s another reason the White House isn’t sweating a shutdown: Senior officials agree that when coffers run dry, the Trump administration — specifically Vought, the longtime cost-cutting conservative now running OMB — would have unprecedented flexibility to choose which agencies get to stay open and which don’t.

[…] It’s not hard to see Musk getting out his chainsaw and Vought finding a hammer.

“Musk in charge of furloughs in a shutdown? He’d be giddy. He’d be beside himself with joy,” the official joked.

(more…)

https://theconservativetreehou...own-day/#more-270056

Vlad PoonTang has agreed to a ceasefire, after some cajoling by President Trump, per FoxNewss

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Vlad PoonTang has agreed to a ceasefire, after some cajoling by President Trump, per FoxNewss

How can that be, when we all know that Trump is Poontang's lap dog.

I cannot wait to see how the DNC propaganda channels (ABC, CBS, AP, CNN, the NBCs, NPR, etc) spin this. It should be fun.

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quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Vlad PoonTang has agreed to a ceasefire, after some cajoling by President Trump, per FoxNewss

https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1900219328164675707

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Vlad PoonTang has agreed to a ceasefire, after some cajoling by President Trump, per FoxNewss

Well now, how 'bout a little Wang Dang Sweet PoonTang!

The good news just keeps on coming!! What a President we have in Trump!!

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:
Happy Schumer Shutdown Day!

Democrats are threatening to shut down government by not supporting the Continuing Resolution (CR) measure that passed the House and is about to reach the floor of the Senate. This threat is awesome, and we can only hope it happens.

Personally, I think Chuck Schumer will tell eight of his Senate members to vote cloture on the CR (they need 60 votes) and then tell them to vote against the underlying bill on the floor (where only 51 are needed for passage). However, the looney leftists in the base are stomping their feet and telling Schumer not to support the Trump CR measure.

If the CR is not passed, the govt goes into “shutdown mode” at midnight tonight and all “nonessential” employees, as determined by the Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought, are laid-off.

This is perfect for DOGE and the objectives of shrinking government very quickly. Even Politico notes the Democrats are about to step on a rake.

WASHINGTON DC – […] There’s another reason the White House isn’t sweating a shutdown: Senior officials agree that when coffers run dry, the Trump administration — specifically Vought, the longtime cost-cutting conservative now running OMB — would have unprecedented flexibility to choose which agencies get to stay open and which don’t.

[…] It’s not hard to see Musk getting out his chainsaw and Vought finding a hammer.

“Musk in charge of furloughs in a shutdown? He’d be giddy. He’d be beside himself with joy,” the official joked.

(more…)

https://theconservativetreehou...own-day/#more-270056

What's also interesting is the memo ( https://www.opm.gov/policy-dat...ation-initiative.pdf) OMB/OPM requiring departments to outline thier RIF plans by today. Could this lay the foundation of the restructuring in the event of a lapse as what was referred to in the article above?

Just stop talking, asshole. You lost. That's all there is to it.

https://x.com/Shawn_Farash/status/1900316601980743844

https://www.theepochtimes.com/...XyIATCxHOrAxa8Io0%3D

Trump Expresses Confidence That US Will Acquire Greenland During Meeting With NATO Chief

‘We need that for international security,’ Trump said of the island.

President Donald Trump on March 13 expressed optimism about the United States acquiring Greenland, highlighting the effort as vital to geopolitical strategy and suggesting that the United States could take possession of the autonomous territory.

The president made the remarks as he hosted NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House to negotiate trade and security agreements, among other issues.

“I think it will happen. I’m sitting with a man that could be very instrumental,” Trump said during the Oval Office meeting while gesturing toward Rutte. “We need that for international security.”

Rutte acknowledged a need to maintain security in the region, noting the presence of Chinese ships in the area, and welcomed U.S. leadership, but he sought to distance NATO from Greenland annexation talks.

“I don’t want to direct NATO in that, but ... it’s very important to make sure that the region ... stays safe,” Rutte said. “We know things are changing there, and we have to be there.”

General elections held on March 11 in Greenland proved favorable, from Trump’s perspective, as the center-right Democrat Party, led by Jens Frederik Nielsen, secured a slim plurality of parliamentary seats.

“The person that did the best is a very good person as far as we’re concerned,” the president said. “And so we'll be talking about it, and it’s very important.”

Trump and Rutte also discussed the war in Ukraine and a range of other global security issues.

“At this moment, we have people talking in Russia, we have representatives over there,” Trump said.

“We’re getting words of things going okay in Russia, and it doesn’t mean anything until we hear what the final outcome is, but they have very serious discussions going on right now with President [Vladimir] Putin and others, and hopefully they all want to end this nightmare.”

During his three-day trip, Rutte is also scheduled to meet with senior administration officials and members of Congress.

Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO allies for not contributing enough to the alliance. Since his first term, he warned that the United States might withhold support if other members failed to meet their financial commitments.

“If you’re not going to pay, we’re not going to defend,” Trump told reporters last week when asked about a potential change in U.S. policy toward NATO. “I said that seven years ago. And because of that, they paid hundreds of billions of dollars.”

Trump called it a common-sense approach, but he noted, “I got into a lot of heat when I said that.”

He also questioned NATO’s willingness and capability to defend the United States in times of crisis.

“The biggest problem I have with NATO,” Trump said, “They’re friends of mine, but if the United States was in trouble, and we called them ... do you think they’re going to come and protect us? They’re supposed to. I’m not so sure.”

In response to Trump’s remarks, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed France’s commitment to the alliance.

“We are loyal and faithful allies,” Macron said, expressing “respect and friendship” toward U.S. leaders.

“I think we’re entitled to expect the same.”

In 2014, NATO set a target for all members to spend at least 2 percent of their national gross domestic product (GDP) on defense spending by 2024.

cont...

quote:

Originally posted by 6guns:

In response to Trump’s remarks, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed France’s commitment to the alliance.

“We are loyal and faithful allies,” Macron said, expressing “respect and friendship” toward U.S. leaders.

Macron continued "In a time of war for the US, we would send many, many baguettes, fine cheeses, wines and rich coffees!"


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quote:

Originally posted by Sig2340:

quote:

Originally posted by Pipe Smoker:
^^^^^
Thanks for that article.

But it’s not clear to me that we did get the $20B back.

E.g., “Jahi Wise, the former director of the GGRF, personally oversaw a $5 billion grant to his previous employer, the Coalition for Green Capital — without recusing himself.“

Past tense.

There are lawsuits by these no good NGOs to force the USG to cough it up, so it hasn’t left Citibank (Citibank is one of the defendants in one of these suits).

I bet someone called the Citibank CEO and said “Unless you want a forensic audit by DOGE, don’t transfer those funds.”

Thanks. There’ll be a lot of VERY disappointed Dem parasites out there:
“We want our $20B!”

Ante up

After EU Imposes Levies on US Whisky, Trump Announces 200% Tariffs on European Wine and Champagne

The lefties are going to lose whatever shit they haven't lost already.

https://x.com/gatewaypundit/st.../1900368469561946550

Trumps playing chess while the dems and others are looking at a checkers board. They can wine, protest and make speeches but they are losing on ever front.