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Originally posted by JALLEN:

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Originally posted by joel9507:

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Originally posted by JALLEN:

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Originally posted by joel9507:
Pay a percentage of assets/gains? -> fewer trades, longer view. They can't help but make money (unless the assets go to zero) but the more assets, the more they make, so their interests and yours are aligned in that sense. But unlike the client, they have no participation in losses, so can be less sensitive to risk than the client. Their risk is that you get unhappy and leave - you bear all the financial risk.

It is actually illegal to do this now unless an account is above a certain minimum, $2 million, maybe.

Warren Buffett basically did this, with his dozen or so partnerships, to start back in 1956.

What if I told you the minimum these days is more like $25K?
Link to Schwab Intelligent Advisory

I'd bet other firms are competitive with that in terms of fees and minimums. I'm just familiar with that because I'm a customer there.

That said, I don't personally use that service because there's no way I would outsource the fun I have investing, but I would definitely consider giving them some to work with, if I had funds I wasn't personally engaged in.

It is ok to charge percentage of asset under management fees, but not percentage of gain on these smaller accounts.

You lopped off the Buffett example of what I meant.

Sorry, wasn't clear that the gain was the issue you were getting at. Warren's escapades back when gold was $35/oz aren't common knowledge - he could have been saving up S&H green stamps for a grubstake, for all I know.

From this link,it looks like asset gain percentages -a.k.a. 'fulcrum fees' - are OK for accounts over $750K for accredited investors, and over $1.5M otherwise.

My point was that advisor compensation needs to be understood, and these sorts of setups - whether asset or gain based - get at least some of their goals aligned with their clients.

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Originally posted by joel9507:


From this link,it looks like asset gain percentages -a.k.a. 'fulcrum fees' - are OK for accounts over $750K for accredited investors, and over $1.5M otherwise.

My point was that advisor compensation needs to be understood, and these sorts of setups - whether asset or gain based - get at least some of their goals aligned with their clients.

Sorry. That was the purpose of the quote about his fees.

Those arrangements were just fine back then. I couldn't remember the limits.

I was forced to give up the RIA due to the health issues before it really got going. It takes awhile. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance, but that's what most people look for.

You can't go wrong doing it yourself using Fidelity Select Funds or other investment houses select funds. There is always something moving.

They have an investor's company that supplies software and data for investors called Fast Track.

https://investorsfasttrack.com/

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Originally posted by 41:
A lot of the indicators rolled over this week so I went to cash.

The new highs/new lows is one of the best indicators of the market topping.

Do you know that professional fund managers don't do better than the market averages (such as the Dow)? Those are people who spend all their professional lives trying to beat the market averages, and they can't do it.

Most fund managers are not technical people or engineers. So an engineer has an advantage using technical analysis, and understanding technical companies he invests in, etc.

I did very well when I was working because I keep my indicators every day and studied Value Line and other investment literature like Barons, Wall Street Journal, etc.

Never invest in something that you do not understand the science.

Fast Track is an easy following by putting your money in the best performing Select Fund and when the market corrects, more to a cash fund. While many people use it, I have not. We had a Capital PC Users Group that had monthly meetings back in the 80's and early 90's. Lots of good speakers and interesting in put by some of the members.

with the exception of about $12k all of my retirement eligible money is fully invested in stocks, mutuals and some ETF's

I was fortunate enough to have been given some very sage advice by Mr. Allen a few years back - I heeded that advice and have been lucky.

I think that it would probably be a bad idea to invest in North Korean real estate right now, beach front property and mountain views might be a bit risky.

I don't think anything is going to happen. A lot of talk and bluster. Kim knows that he cannot possibly win and that an attempt means that North Korea ceases to be a habitable land mass.

Why would he provoke that? I wouldn't panic. I can't afford to panic. This will all blow over when some aide or General caps Kim.

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Originally posted by nhtagmember:
with the exception of about $12k all of my retirement eligible money is fully invested in stocks, mutuals and some ETF's

I was fortunate enough to have been given some very sage advice by Mr. Allen a few years back - I heeded that advice and have been lucky.

I think that it would probably be a bad idea to invest in North Korean real estate right now, beach front property and mountain views might be a bit risky.

How many years before it is safe to play there?

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Originally posted by 41:
Most fund managers are not technical people or engineers. So an engineer has an advantage using technical analysis, and understanding technical companies he invests in, etc.

I did very well when I was working because I keep my indicators every day and studied Value Line and other investment literature like Barons, Wall Street Journal, etc.

Never invest in something that you do not understand the science.

Fast Track is an easy following by putting your money in the best performing Select Fund and when the market corrects, more to a cash fund. While many people use it, I have not. We had a Capital PC Users Group that had monthly meetings back in the 80's and early 90's. Lots of good speakers and interesting in put by some of the members.

I wish you all the best.

But I fear you have no more ability to time the market and read the tea leaves than any other investor has. I know we all think we are children of Lake Woebegone (where all the children are "above average"), but we aren't. Being an engineer doesn't give you any advantage in technical analysis - again, there are technical market analysts whose educational background is every bit as analytic and math intensive as yours, and their technical models would make your head spin. They are in the same class as those who can't, on average, beat the market indices, like the Dow. It just doesn't work. Only a few percent of fund managers beat the indices in any given year, and they generally don't do it the next year. I think you would be better off in index funds that charge super-low fees.

With that, I'll leave it alone. Again, best luck to you.

You need to get out more often. I have studied the market since 1966 and my best opportunity was when I moved to CA in 1974 and was exposed to Technical Analysis by Gene Morgan.

You need both fundamental analysis as well as technical analysis to do well.

A gentleman at the Capital PC Users Group developed a computer model for trading Fidelity Select Funds and back tested it using computer data. He was averaging 32 percent a year using the parameters he developed.

There are many different schemes that others use with one being trading around Apple stock and using weekly options.

Then there are Candlesticks that give you a road map of the investors thoughts on the price movement and one of the best tools for buying or selling a stock.

Then there is Worden Brothers and their TC2000 charting software. So the opportunities are unlimited for an individual to do it on his own but you only get out what you put into it.

I have lost the most money using Financial Planners. The SEC is very slow or unconcerned to prosecute these Madoff type of small operations. Most are located in FL or CA.

To get ahead in life, you have to work hard, save your money, and invest it.

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Originally posted by apf383:
On the Korean peninsula, and some sort of conflict almost a certainty, are any of you guys pulling out of investment positions and going to cash? Im 52 now, and dont have enough investment timeline left should my portfolio take a substantian hit. Just interested in your thoughts on the investment question, not the possibility of a conflict question, which seems inevitable to me at this time. Thanks.

interesting how things changed in one week. Nonetheless, the market did go down since the OP wrote this, albeit slightly.

I do think there is truth to the statement that the market cannot be predicted with any consistency.

I recall many threads in the past where people said they had sold all their stocks. Most of the time it did not work out too well for them.

Hard to say what will happen this time.

The market appears to be likely to move higher, unless it moves lower, and unless it does either, it will probably remain about the same.

While near term prospects are uncertain, longer term holdings need not be disturbed.

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Originally posted by old rugged cross:
Going through life thinking you need to consult or hire an expert at every challenge in ones life would lead to an unfulfilled and ungratifying existence. A man needs to be able to forge his own path and figure things out. Not saying seeking help is a problem but trial and error is valuable trait for anyone. When you get knocked down. You get back up. Thinking someone else always has the answer because they are an "expert" is silly.

It depends. You have to know what you're good at and what you're not. You also have to differentiate between where you've been good and where you've been lucky.

I'm good with numbers, I do my own taxes from day 1 even to the point when I had two side businesses, selling a house, and investment transactions. I understand stocks and bonds and options but I've learned I'm not good at it myself even with getting all the knowledge from value line, morningstar, and various investment newsletters and services that ask for good money. I would often ignore my own gut feelings which turn out to be right. My wife did a lot better than me when I told her I was too busy to manage our investments.

In addition, besides the research, I think most big companies make their money using software programs now.

So I willingly pay someone 1% to do the investment decisions for me. I am aligned with their strategies and the things they would do, I would do on my own if I had their resources. It's just like the other thread where someone is wishing for the day he could just hire out fixing his toilet. I see it as hiring someone to mow my lawn, I can mow it myself but I'd rather not. I can always review to see if they're doing a good job or not.

Yeah I hire out a lot of stuff now, that I could do myself. Time becomes more important than money. As Clint Eastwood says, " A man has got to know his limitations." If you enjoy running numbers and managing money, perhaps you should do it for a living. I happen to think that not only is Warren Buffet good at handling money, he always enjoys it.

I have friends that did day trading for awhile they are now back in their regular jobs. I remember a number of the adages, like when the top of the market is coming when your pool guy is recommending stocks. If I am correct Warren Bufffet suggests putting most of your money in a no load index fund that models the Standard and Poors 500. Of course, that would be prudent and boring.

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Originally posted by JALLEN:
The market appears to be likely to move higher, unless it moves lower, and unless it does either, it will probably remain about the same.

We have a local "financial" radio show where the host spends about one hour making statements just like this. At the end of the hour, you realize your head is spinning :0

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Originally posted by radioman:

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Originally posted by JALLEN:
The market appears to be likely to move higher, unless it moves lower, and unless it does either, it will probably remain about the same.

We have a local "financial" radio show where the host spends about one hour making statements just like this. At the end of the hour, you realize your head is spinning :0

When I was in that business briefly, long ago, we had a market letter sent out every morning by a fellow who had a variation of that, seldom if ever worded the same, for nearly 40 years. I thought I would never forget his name, but I have now. I met him when I was in NY for charm school.

If I could go back to my first real job with a 401K, I would have put a higher percentage into it, and I would have put most of the funds into the cheapest index fund I could find.

What I did do 30 years or so ago was just put in enough to get the company match and I spread the funds out into about 5 different categories...Always chasing whatever fund had been the best performer in the past year (which sometimes worked out and sometimes didn't).
It worked out okay, but I would have been better off the other way.


We recently put all our various retirement accounts into one place with a fiduciary wealth management firm. I would rather pay a little bit and have them do all the homework, so I can spend my time doing stuff I enjoy more.

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Originally posted by JALLEN:
The market appears to be likely to move higher, unless it moves lower, and unless it does either, it will probably remain about the same.

While near term prospects are uncertain, longer term holdings need not be disturbed.

But what about technical analysis?

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Originally posted by Rey HRH:

So I willingly pay someone 1% to do the investment decisions for me.

Some Vanguard and Schwab index funds charge less than 1% for their fees.

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Originally posted by jhe888:

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Originally posted by JALLEN:
The market appears to be likely to move higher, unless it moves lower, and unless it does either, it will probably remain about the same.

While near term prospects are uncertain, longer term holdings need not be disturbed.

But what about technical analysis?