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Originally posted by grumpy1:

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Originally posted by triggertreat:

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Originally posted by grumpy1:

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Originally posted by jhe888:

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Originally posted by Rey HRH:

So I willingly pay someone 1% to do the investment decisions for me.

Some Vanguard and Schwab index funds charge less than 1% for their fees.

Vanguard's fee is .04% in it's VFIAX S&P 500 index fund. So a money manager would have to beat the S&P 500 index consistently by 1 percent just to be even with that. Something like less than 5 percent of mutual fund managers have beat the S&P 500 index over the long term and when they do it almost always is just by a little bit.

I must have gotten lucky with my managed account.I went here to see that funds performance https://personal.vanguard.com/...=0540&FundIntExt=INT

The hypothetical shows 10 years to double your 10k.My managed account took 9yrs to increase 2.5x.I am like Rey HRH and am willing to pay someone to take care of it for me.

!0 year return for S&P 500 index includes the last huge stock market crash making it historically very low and while 9 years would not or not nearly as much so you are not comparing apples to apples. Also you have to take into account if you added any funds to your account in the last 9 years or not. 10 years is a relatively short period of time for long term investors. If one look at 20 and 30 year returns it has done much better and very very few have been able to match or beat it. The one Vanguard fund that probably has beaten the S&P 500 over the longer term and one of the highest returning funds over the long term ever is the Vanguard Health fund - VGHCX. Vanguard Primecap - VPMCX is another that may have and one of my favorite funds that I have done extremely well with over the years.

No added funds and weathered 2 market down turns.You are right it isnt apples to apple.I did better!Im getting closer to retirement and have adjusted my strategy a little.My long term isnt really long term at this point.

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Originally posted by triggertreat:

No added funds and weathered 2 market down turns.You are right it isnt apples to apple.I did better!Im getting closer to retirement and have adjusted my strategy a little. My long term isnt really long term at this point.

I think that is a key point missed by sentiment that says no investment manager can beat the index over the long term. The sentiment is correct if your investment horizon is at least 30 years. You have several principles working against anyone trying to beat the market; two of which are the law of diminishing returns and regression towards the mean.

If you have 30 years or more, stick your money in the total stock market and after 30 years, you would have done better than any other strategy.

But if you have less than 30 years and made more complicated by needing to draw funds against that investment, then you're at risk of not having enough funds to last you if you simply have it all invested in the market.

When the market goes into a bear cycle which it inevitably will, you'll be drawing funds which your funds need to make a return on.

Now, if you have enough funds to support your lifestyle whatever the market does in your lifetime, then you don't really need the stock market to earn money for you. But for most people, this isn't the case.

Berkshire Hathaway had a gain in book value 1965-2016 of 884,319%, a gain in market value of 1,972,595%, compared to a gain in the S&P including dividends of 12,717%.

The compounded annual gain in book value was 19.0%, in market value, 20.8%, and of the S&P, 9.7%.

I don't believe Buffett beat the S&P by either measure every year for 50 years.

Like Bum Philips once said of Earl Campbell, "I'm not sure he's in a class by himself, but it don't take long to call the roll."

There will always be someone who did better, and there is no way to predict these things in advance.

Hang on to your hats boys and girls.

Most of the common 'indicators' point to a bear market again. Likely not as bad as 2007-2009, but expect some losses for a while until things recover.

here we go......

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Originally posted by radioman:
Hang on to your hats boys and girls.

Most of the common 'indicators' point to a bear market again. Likely not as bad as 2007-2009, but expect some losses for a while until things recover.

here we go......

I wonder if the God Damned Commies, many if whom are professional capitalists, are going to try heavy selling to induce a market downturn, to further hobble Trump.

I really don't follow this kind of thing like maybe I should.
Yes I am in he market. Yes I am in the last third of my investment window.
Whatever it does, I am hoping by being balanced in the market. Stocks (diversified) and bonds we will come out ok (mostly unscathed) in a few years.
I am really, really hoping and praying.

I have no faith in bonds. There are gas pipelines and other utilities that pay a good dividend plus appreciation.

The market is still in a downtrend channel and is trying to break back up. The Biotech are on fire and my Kemet continues to go up after I sold it to pay my taxes. Waiting for it to pull back to get back in.

I should say bond funds. I guess I am old skool. But unless things are quite a bit different now. Bonds do ok when stocks
(in general) don't.

I should say that in general. I do not invest in individual stocks or bonds.

You have to realize that it is harder for a large fund to move in and out of the market while an individual doesn't have that problem.

Buffett's performance was only 21.4 percent a year compared to the S&P of 9.97 percent a year by my calculations. Still good but people playing the Fidelity Select Funds were averaging 32 percent.

Buffett also has big connections with the banks to move has holdings.

The market has moved back up and gold and silver have broken out.

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Originally posted by 41:
.... people playing the Fidelity Select Funds were averaging 32 percent.

Whoa, big guy.

Where and for how long did the Fidelity Select Funds average 32%?

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Where and for how long did the Fidelity Select Funds average 32%?

A computer person that attended the Capital PC Users Financial Group did an analysis of Fidelity Select Funds. He determined that a four week window was the best sampling rate to select the best funds performance.

So you did a scan of the funds using four weeks performance window and selected the top fund to place your money. You did a scan once a week on Friday. This was around 1985 if IIRC. There were other rules as the top fund dropped back. Some years he made over 32 percent. This was all back tested on a computer to determine what time frame to use..two week, three week, four week, five week, etc.

There is a group called Fast Track that has software and data for using this technique.

https://investorsfasttrack.com/

Today, some of the Fidelity Sector Funds are up more than 32 percent YTD like Technology which is up 38 percent. When the market corrects, they move to a cash account.

http://fundresearch.fidelity.c...ce-short-term/SECTOR

There are a lot more Fidelity Funds now compared to 1985 when there were about 35 or less.

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Originally posted by 41:

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Where and for how long did the Fidelity Select Funds average 32%?

A computer person that attended the Capital PC Users Financial Group did an analysis of Fidelity Select Funds. He determined that a four week window was the best sampling rate to select the best funds performance.

So you did a scan of the funds using four weeks performance window and selected the top fund to place your money. You did a scan once a week on Friday. This was around 1985 if IIRC. There were other rules as the top fund dropped back. Some years he made over 32 percent. This was all back tested on a computer to determine what time frame to use..two week, three week, four week, five week, etc.

There is a group called Fast Track that has software and data for using this technique.

https://investorsfasttrack.com/

Today, some of the Fidelity Sector Funds are up more than 32 percent YTD like Technology which is up 38 percent. When the market corrects, they move to a cash account.

http://fundresearch.fidelity.c...ce-short-term/SECTOR

There are a lot more Fidelity Funds now compared to 1985 when there were about 35 or less.

There were guys who made real good money with mechanical trading systems. They would figure out that if you sold September Soybeans the first week of March, and bought them back in July, you would make 150% most years, a few years between 50 and 100% and 3 years lost $50, all the way back to 1910 or so.

I just made that up as an example, mind you. There were dozens of them like that. They made money selling these trading schemes with ads in money making magazines. There was no internet back then, no computers in private hands.

There are technical schemes which some are quite keen on. Everyone claims to have made money in years past, but when you try it, it doesn't quite work out. I spent a fortune in the late 70's and early 80's going to seminars, reading all sorts of trading books by guys who claimed to have uncovered the secrets to perpetual cash flow. Luckily, I never hesrd of Bernie Madoff!

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here were guys who made real good money with mechanical trading systems. They would figure out that if you sold September Soybeans the first week of March, and bought them back in July, you would make 150% most years, a few years between 50 and 100% and 3 years lost $50, all the way back to 1910 or so.

I just made that up as an example, mind you. There were dozens of them like that. They made money selling these trading schemes with ads in money making magazines. There was no internet back then, no computers in private hands.

There are technical schemes which some are quite keen on. Everyone claims to have made money in years past, but when you try it, it doesn't quite work out. I spent a fortune in the late 70's and early 80's going to seminars, reading all sorts of trading books by guys who claimed to have uncovered the secrets to perpetual cash flow. Luckily, I never hesrd of Bernie Madoff!

this made me chuckle as I shook my head and said, "yep"
And just not the last sentence.

And yep, wow all in 3,4 or five weeks too .

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There were guys who made real good money with mechanical trading systems. They would figure out that if you sold September Soybeans the first week of March, and bought them back in July, you would make 150% most years.......

Frozen OJ anyone...




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