quote:

Originally posted by bubbatime:
Category 5 with 175 mph winds now !!!!

Category 6!

It's now a Cat 5 storm, glad I bought my water early!! None to be found yesterday. My shutters are ready to go up. Stay safe everyone!!!

quote:

Originally posted by bubbatime:
Category 5 with 175 mph winds now !!!!

Gusts to 215 mph. Whatever this thing hits, it's going to completely level. Hopefully Cuba and not us!

Already stocking extra supplies in case the track that has it taking bullseye aim at this valley proves true. Hope I can keep my cellar from flooding. That's a $4k furnace down there.

Also, there went that vacation. At least I'm only out $80.

Though of course the path is completely undetermined yet, I'm very thankful I just "evacuated" my son from Daytona this past weekend. Flew down to load everything up and move him back to WI for good. Even if the storm moves elsewhere, the general shitshow and fuckery created from the panic is good to avoid. Probably as with most broke college kids down there (as well as so many of the other general population that is poor), they are quite underprepared. Cupboards are bare, he took the 4 cans of corn and can of tomato soup leaving them with expired tortilla wraps and a couple of bottles of water. Broke folks can't go out and stick up on $200-$300 worth of food, water and supplies. These kids have yet to learn life lessons the hard way. Now I'll go get my flame suit on for those that will berate me for not raising my child as a eotwawki prepper. We are fairly well prepared in our midwestern home that he grew up in. As they say you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink. I'm sure there is S better analogy but that's what you get for the price of admission.

Prayers and well wishes for those in its path.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: BRL,

Well nuts. I just tried to find out what the hurricane guy, Dr. William M. Gray, had to say. He died. Last year.

“After unveiling the first Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasting system in 1984, he became a hurricane superstar and darling of the media,” Chris Mooney wrote in 2007 in “Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming.” “But he had absolutely no use for the notion of global warming, much less the idea that it might seriously affect the storms he’d spent a lifetime studying. And he had no problem saying so — loudly and often.”

On a local note: Had 1/8 tank and went to fuel up. No fewer than six people were filling multiple gas cans. The lady in front of me had four 5-gallon jugs and another 4 smaller ones stuffed in the back of her crossover.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by bubbatime:
Category 5 with 175 mph winds now !!!!

Category 6!

This one goes to 11!

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
Well nuts. I just tried to find out what the hurricane guy, Dr. William M. Gray, had to say. He died. Last year.

“After unveiling the first Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasting system in 1984, he became a hurricane superstar and darling of the media,” Chris Mooney wrote in 2007 in “Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming.” “But he had absolutely no use for the notion of global warming, much less the idea that it might seriously affect the storms he’d spent a lifetime studying. And he had no problem saying so — loudly and often.”

On a local note: Had 1/8 tank and went to fuel up. No fewer than six people were filling multiple gas cans. The lady in front of me had four 5-gallon jugs and another 4 smaller ones stuffed in the back of her crossover.

Joe Bastardi is a good one.

quote:

Originally posted by DrDan:

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by bubbatime:
Category 5 with 175 mph winds now !!!!

Category 6!

This one goes to 11!

I never miss an opportunity to use that.

We have lived through a number of hurricanes and I was responsible for disaster preparedness in my city for years. Having attended the Governor's Hurricane Conference and many FEMA training courses over the years, as well as being a first responder at disaster sites, I learned that there are some actions that can greatly mitigate human suffering during and after the storm. You can't stop the storm but you can work to minimize the human toll.

First, a declaration of emergency early on puts the state's emergency management apparatus in gear well in advance of the storm so that mitigation and recovery is well staged. You can't control where the storm will go but you can control your recovery response. Emergency funds can be accessed and emergency legal authorities are in effect. Of side interest to the Forum is the authority to carry a concealed firearm while evacuating within 48 hours of an evacuation order, even without a CWFL. Anti price gouging laws are also activated once there is a declaration of emergency.

Second, it is impossible to evacuate everyone in advance of a storm. There is a window in time where evacuations work well but that window will close 1-2 days before landfall. Florida will turn the interstates into one way northbound evacuation routes but there simply are not enough roadways to get everyone out in time, so you have to concentrate on the low lying areas and coastal areas. We would try to evacuate flood prone areas and mobile hope parks 3 days before anticipated landfall. Everyone left needs to shelter in place. If you want to do a voluntary evacuation and you can, go now. Shoot video and photos of your house and contents. If the storm fizzles, you had a nice mini vacation up north. The worst possible scenario is to have tens of thousands of people on the road in their cars when the storm hits. And don't forget your pets.

Third, the rampant buying of commodities in advance of the storm is a catch up. Everyone in a hurricane zone is warned beginning June 1st every year to have emergency supplies on hand during hurricane season. The big chains have plenty nonperishable goods on hand in their warehouses for contingencies. We run out and buy water and fill our gas cans every time there is a storm coming this way-it is just SOP. Fresh food items can be a problem but you can live without them for a few days. We always worked under the presumption that conditions would be austere for 3-5 days following a major storm. The biggest problem is the loss of utilities that can go on for weeks. We lost power here for 3.5 weeks following Ivan. The wise have emergency power generators.

Fourth, emergency responders will not be out there during the worst of the storm, except in life or death emergencies. The general rule followed by most agencies is to hunker down once sustained winds exceed 40 mph. People don't need to be out there in a gale-that's for the weather dummies on the news channels. If you are out there in the worst of the storm and first responders have to come save your ass, you are unnecessarily placing the first responders in peril. We need them for recovery after the storm passes.

Fifth, buildings fail from wind for the most part because of inadequate or shoddy construction. I have looked at thousands of photos and in person at roof and wall failures where steel, adhesive, and adequate nail patterns would have stood up. Retrofitting can be done but many won't or can't afford it. Nothing shy of a bunker will withstand tornadic winds but you can mitigate against most hurricane force winds. It is too late to update now. If your home is not up to standard, get out as soon as it looks like the storm is coming your way. Or be prepared to shelter in your bathtub when your roof comes off. I had a neighbor whose whole family were desperately nailing 2X4 bracing against the interior walls of their house during 135 mph winds to keep the walls from collapsing. Not a good situation to be in.

Sixth, don't go to a shelter that is not certified. Shelter life at best is not pleasant to begin with. After a few days you will be homicidal. If you can, shelter with friends or family, or better yet go visit family in Nebraska, you are much better off.

Funny; yesterday, I went to Victoria-a city hit hard by Harvey. I see some roofers from Florida are here.

Anybody in the projected path or zone, take care.

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Sixth, don't go to a shelter that is not certified. Shelter life at best is not pleasant to begin with. After a few days you will be homicidal. If you can, shelter with friends or family, or better yet go visit family in Nebraska, you are much better off.

I worked ~ a month at the shelter in San Antonio after Ike. Thousands of people and hundreds of crimes. Sexual assault, OD (one death), theft, physical violence. And then the prostitutes and drug dealers showed up. Lots already sick and more getting sick. Anyone, please find shelter elsewhere than mass shelters.

I can't really blame anyone in S. Florida for going a little crazy over Irma given the non stop disaster news out of Harvey. This will be a very different type of storm but with that said, if I lived south of Orlanda and had the means and opportunity to get my family out of there I would leave now before the masses start to move. There is a very good chance that S. Florida is going to take a direct hit from a very strong storm.

Watching this one very closely as well. Started to prepare last week and we always try to keep a certain amount of water and certain items on hand, especially during the hurricane months. I'm in South West Broward County about 20 miles from the coast (west of I-75). Our home is a newer home and was built in 1998 so it was built to the stricter hurricane codes to withstand a Cat 5. I never really wanted to test it though. Let's see what happens. Prayers for all for safety.

I could use some advice from my Florida friends since I don't have any hurricane experience. How many days in advance of landfall will air travel be affected?

I am scheduled to fly to Melbourne Florida tomorrow (9/6) for an important all day client meeting on Thursday (9/7), with a return flight leaving Melbourne that Thursday evening (9/7).

Irma is predicted to hit land in Florida on Saturday 9/9. What's the likelihood that I will get stranded in Melbourne due to air travel interruptions on 9/7?

It looks like a big one, hope everybody stays safe down there.

quote:

Originally posted by Brett B:
I could use some advice from my Florida friends since I don't have any hurricane experience. How many days in advance of landfall will air travel be affected?

I am scheduled to fly to Melbourne Florida tomorrow (9/6) for an important all day client meeting on Thursday (9/7), with a return flight leaving Melbourne that Thursday evening (9/7).

Irma is predicted to hit land in Florida on Saturday 9/9. What's the likelihood that I will get stranded in Melbourne due to air travel interruptions on 9/7?

It looks like a big one, hope everybody stays safe down there.

You'll be perfectly fine I believe.

Thanks, HG. A very intelligent and informative post.

Pop tarts! The official hurricane food! This along with a bunch of peanut butter crackers, potted meat, Vienna sausage is what I survived on for 2 weeks after Ivan.

We got power back after 2 weeks. We were kinda lucky.

If your house was built after 2005 and not in a flood area, stock up and stay put.
There are usually as many deaths during evacuation as is from the storm if you don't count flooding deaths.

I know this sounds crazy, but if the storm is inevitable for you, see it as an adventure. If you prepare and decide to ride it out, no amount of worry and distress will help.
Get your plan together, execute it, and believe in it.

I was talking to a former Florida resident (fellow engineer) the other day about construction standards in that state and neither of us can figure out why stick construction is still allowed along the coast lines and even a few miles inward in general. Its not a matter of IF Florida will be hit with hurricanes, but when.

Most of the real prep work has to be done months before the event. Going nuts at this point is a little late.

quote:

Originally posted by RogueJSK:

quote:

Originally posted by Fredward:
In a super duper emergency, you can get water out of your water heater. There's a good 30 to 50 readily available.

Toilet tanks too. (The tank, not the bowl, guys...)

Modern production toilets will hold around 1 to 2 gallons in the tank. Older toilets will hold 3 to 5 gallons.

I tried that before but my dog gave me a really pissed off look.