First, this should be copy written. What a great essay.
I am printing it so that I can read it a few times.

Thanks, LDD, and be well.

Thanks for writing this LDD. I will be re-reading it multiple times.

LDD. Great article. Especially liked your pyramind of demand.


One thing you might consider adding, which is not my original thought, is the introduction of higher cap .22lr magazines hurting the 22 market.
22lr production hasnt increased much over the years yet new AR type rifles came into the market with 25- 30 round magazines. You eventual get tired of loading those old ruger 1022 drums, or loading 10 rounds at a time for a .22 pistol. But now the amount of shots per mag has gone up 2.5x even if you consider that a person only shot preloaded magazines.

Ruger mark 2, four 10 rnd mags pre loaded =40 rounds shot

Sig 522, four 25 rnd mags pre loaded = 100 shot in nearly the same time.

I suspect new shooters who gravitate to .22 also will blow thru rounds faster with said ARs as precise aim isnt also priority.

Anyway great article appreciate the time you put into it.

quote:

2) The machines that make .22LR cannot make any other cartridge.If you don’t make a lot of money per round, and you can’t use that machine to make rounds that are more profitable, that really puts the damper on expansion plans for .22LR production. I haven’t been able to confirm that the machines that make .22LR are more expensive to set up than centerfire ammunition machines, but I suspect this to be the case due to the specialized nature of .22LR manufacturing.

At the beginning of the .22LR shortage someone researched the machines used for their manufacture. LDD is right on, these machines are very specialized, only one or perhaps two builders worldwide, definitely made to order, very long delivery, and of course very expensive. In order to accommodate another machine probably building expansion would be needed.
This could be a bet-the-company decision to expand production when the market obviously has a froth of hoarders and speculators involved.
The same applies to primers, complicated by the fact that most primer manufacturers are primarily concerned with filling their own ammunition loading needs.

I am certain that the same applies to the aluminum foundry and forge production of AR lowers. Most foundry and melting facilities are very capital intensive with highly specialized long delivery equipment needs. I don't know anyone in the lower business, but I would be surprised if lowers comprise more than a small part or their output making it unlikely that they would consider expansion.

LDD, thank you for taking the time to write and post, that was a very good read.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: hlb14,

quote:

Originally posted by Deqlyn:
LDD. Great article. Especially liked your pyramind of demand.


One thing you might consider adding, which is not my original thought, is the introduction of higher cap .22lr magazines hurting the 22 market.
22lr production hasnt increased much over the years yet new AR type rifles came into the market with 25- 30 round magazines. You eventual get tired of loading those old ruger 1022 drums, or loading 10 rounds at a time for a .22 pistol. But now the amount of shots per mag has gone up 2.5x even if you consider that a person only shot preloaded magazines.

Ruger mark 2, four 10 rnd mags pre loaded =40 rounds shot

Sig 522, four 25 rnd mags pre loaded = 100 shot in nearly the same time.

I suspect new shooters who gravitate to .22 also will blow thru rounds faster with said ARs as precise aim isnt also priority.

Anyway great article appreciate the time you put into it.

Agree with this 100%!

Would like to add that based on these observations and facts, that there is in fact a permanent increase in the demand of .22LR that the domestic manufacturers are not yet addressing. As more .22LR is imported it helps ease the demand across the board but the other problem with .22 demand is that it is a bit skewed by "brand preference". For instance, while CCI makes some great .22 ammo the demand for it has been even more exaggerated by manufacturers suggestions and people's perception that only CCI will run the best in every .22. Yes, it's good, yes it can be reliable, but there are plenty of other .22 manufacturers that make great .22 ammo too (IMHO better than CCI in some cases for that matter). On the other end of the spectrum you have Remington which tends to be the red-headed step child of the .22 industry and a lot of times bought as a "last resort" because it is available.

There are so many semi automatic .22 rifles and pistols owned and on the market right now that even with the continued scarcity of .22 many people still measure their consumption per range visit in bricks and not boxes. So, if consumption has not been curtailed by those that shoot .22 when they can find it, AND you have new, "tacticool" / training guns with large capacity magazines, AND you have more shooters / new shooters shooting them, then production has to go up at some point to handle the additional demand or we are going to be in the same boat with .22 ammo for the foreseeable future (read YEARS).

One last observation is that while not just for .22 ammo but centerfire as well, for some people it is infinitely more convenient to order online and have it delivered than to go to the store to buy it due to the distances they may have to travel to get to a store that sells it and has it in stock. So anything and everything that appears online, even at today's prices gets bought up pretty quickly except the really ridiculously priced offerings.

Interesting read. Good writing. Thank you.

Good read. I cut & pasted it to e-mail to friends.
With a link to the page.

Nice write up - hopefully some can finally understand the 22LR situation isn't a conspiracy...

Thanks for that insight- well written.

some things that have added to the lack of availability (demand) of items quite astonishingly IMO are:

- OEF / OIF : thousands upon thousands of military vets who buy an incredible amount of gear just like they had when they were in. I was in the Army in the 90s and I think a much smaller percentage of vets back then were inclined to buy military-styled firearms. Same with prior generations IME. Also- the conflicts have definitely made the firearms market clamor for military style gear, weapons etc.

- video games. Many of the super popular video games mention firearms by name and nomenclature quite accurately. I have no doubt that creates additional demand among the 20s-30s demographic.

- Bulk buying over the internet. Again back in the 90s / early 2000s most people just didn't order cases upon cases of ammo via the internet like we do now. We think nothing of having several thousand rounds of ammo stockpiled. That is a 'recent' demand phenomenon that has an effect.

But it is very interesting to consider micro and macro economic principles and apply them to our hobby.

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Very nice write up

This reminds me of people I know that aren't anti-gun but not really pro-gun either ... They're the ones that keep saying "Obama's not after legal gun owners ... You're just paranoid"

Then when things started drying up OMG!

I am a little surprised that now, after the Oregon shooting, and Obama has said we need to follow the lead of England, Australia, Japan & Canada ... I'm surprised people aren't freaking out more, even though he has said he's working on new Executive Orders for gun control.

quote:

Originally posted by Andyb:

Part of Zippy's oath of office was a pledge to Support and Defend the Constitution. That oath doesn't allow those making this pledge to pick and choose what parts of the Constitution he can support, it's all or nothing. Frankly I think the time has come for the House and the Senate to Man Up and just impeach the SOB. BTW, failing to adhere to the Oath of Office is technically Perjury, a crime in every single jurisdiction within the United States including all of it's territories and states.

quote:

Originally posted by Scooter123:
Part of Zippy's oath of office was a pledge to Support and Defend the Constitution. That oath doesn't allow those making this pledge to pick and choose what parts of the Constitution he can support, it's all or nothing. Frankly I think the time has come for the House and the Senate to Man Up and just impeach the SOB. BTW, failing to adhere to the Oath of Office is technically Perjury, a crime in every single jurisdiction within the United States including all of it's territories and states.

None of the worthless bastages have the balls to take the action necessary to boot his ass down the street. He is guilty of treason for sure.

Very well written.

I might add that here in the coastal range, .22LR equals food. If I have .22LR, I can feed my family forever, until I run out of .22LR.

This may be another reason for the run on .22LR -- survivalists like it for the harvest of food.

I'm of the opinion that Zippy has panicked gun owners so often that the market is likely saturated. I don't believe the idiot can scare too many more folks into purchasing weapons or ammunition.

Couple typos crept in - not really worth mentioning as we all know the history - but since the essay is so good and I agree with folks it is worth publishing, thought I'd note the nits:

Obama's election was in '08 not '07, and his inauguration was '09.

quote:

A second type of inciting incident, while less common, is somewhat more predictable: political uncertainty. If an anti-gun politician, or group of politicians is elected, this can trigger a panic. Obama’s victory in ’07 led the Panic of ’08, but in reality, the panic started in late ’07, long before Obama’s official swearing in on January 20th of the following year.

quote:

Shortly after Obama’s initial election in ’07,

Thanks for the write up. I'm thinking you are correct with you analysis.

It's another cup of tea but. It's sad that we are forced into panic mode. The Constitution gives us the right to own guns with no stipulations.

quote:

Originally posted by entropy:
Hey!!!

Lets get started on the panic now!!!!

Good grief.

There will be a foreign born high casualty event long before a ban. Theres some good news for you right there....

Those of us who are AWAKE and AWARE of what is going ON warned about this in NY for the last 10 years. Maybe we sounded like Chicken Little?

Upstate NY used to be great for gun owners. We had DCM/CMP shoots, 3 gun matches and a lot of AR type companies.

You guys think the anti-gun movement does not understand guns and assault weapons they understand them FAR better than the average gun owner and they have made great efforts to study the GUN and firearms business. They are going to attack the BUSINESS and FINANCIAL models that support the industry.

The gun laws in NY attack the capacity to own and use the guns.

The next phase will be an attack on the NRA finances and an attack on gun companies.

If S&W wins Federal and military contracts for handguns it will tied into the federal orbit as a supplier.

I would argue now is the time to get MORE NRA members nationwide.

NOW is the time to get motivated to weaken the democrat and anti-gunner resolve. They will start winning and win's beget more wins.

Stop them NOW when they are small and they have only taken the states they already control.

quote:

Originally posted by Scooter123:
Part of Zippy's oath of office was a pledge to Support and Defend the Constitution. That oath doesn't allow those making this pledge to pick and choose what parts of the Constitution he can support, it's all or nothing. Frankly I think the time has come for the House and the Senate to Man Up and just impeach the SOB. BTW, failing to adhere to the Oath of Office is technically Perjury, a crime in every single jurisdiction within the United States including all of it's territories and states.

You are living in fantasy land. The constitution is dead to most politicians. They don't know or respect it. They make of it what they want.