I was never a reloader. But I just brought a Dillon 550. However, now I'm seeing a serious shortage of components, so I'm back to looking for ammo.

Does anyone see ammo availability returning back to some semblance of normal anytime soon?

No.

Best case, it goes back to normal in four years. Worst...ouch.

3-5 years is my best guess.

Take care and shoot your laser cartridge safe.
Chris.

I'm not saying the people projecting multiple/several years are wrong, but our society can't see past the end of its nose sometimes. We've been through this so many times in the past. "But this one is different!" So were all the others.

I don’t see how it can last 3-5 years. Surprised you bought a reloader without checking for components. At least you bought a good one.

Most of the time it Takes about 2-4 years to pass. The main differences with this one are new gun owners by the bucketload and lowered production capacity due to the Kung flu.

Now I don’t believe the new gun owners will be a long term effect as I think the vast majority will buy a box of ammo or three and be done with it, but there will be a small percentage who become shooters.

The ‘Rona will subside but we are not there yet.

So based on past indicators and current variables I am saying we will see this last a year or two longer then “normal”.

That’s my take.

PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG!! .

I agree with those who say at least a few years. I have been shooting for decades and this is the worst ammo situation I have experienced to the point that pretty much all hunting ammo has disappeared also and shortages have been reported of shotgun ammo by some too used by skeet and trap shooters where in the past it sas basically just buckshot and slugs .

After Sandy Hook it took almost three years for ammo to become mostly back to normal as far as availability, variety, and better pricing though I doubt we will ever see ammo prices as low as in 2018-2019 again for practice range ammo including under $10 box of 50 9MM brass cased range ammo.

Mrgunsngear gives his thoughts on ammo starting at about 13:00 in his video below where he is saying "hopefully" in 3-5 years.

President of Federal/Speer/CCI/Remington talks more about ammo and primer shortage. Says primer shortage will be for extended period of time as pretty much all primers are being dedicated to ammo production and that no new ammo factories are in the works because of excess capacity they experienced in the previous three years before shortage started.

I am a bit surprised more did not take advantage of the buy cheap and stack deep pricing during the ammo glut of 2018-2019 when Federal had 25 percent off rebates on much of their ammo including Federal American Eagle. I bought all I could then of 9MM 124 and 147.

The gougers around here on the local gun trader are starting to drop their prices. 9mil has dropped to $30-ish a box. Powder is almost normal - paid $40 for a bottle of Blue Dot yesterday. Primers are toast though. I finally found a brick of CCI BR-4 for $90 - and I have loaded a few test rounds of both 9 and .40 with them. The cups on them are .025 thick so I am not expecting the worlds best results but I won’t know without trying. That said, pretty sure my 226 in .40 will light them given the looks of primers in fired cases - Clocks, prolly not so much

Let’s take one of the worst case scenarios for the new Dillon, 9mm. I see cases listed on gun forum boards, 3k or so, $125 shipped.

I just ordered some 9mm bullets two days ago, Midway. Yes, the favorites may be out of stock.

I bought two pounds of HP-38 powder 3 weeks ago, Scheels, $26 or so.

Yes, SP & SR primers are very difficult right now. I’d lay up what you can, don’t expect to find it all at one spot.

Cast a wide net, maybe someone local will offer some primers to get you started.

There is no shortage, I can go on Gunbroker right now and buy all the 9mm I want - at $1 per round.

Supply meet demand.

I think it will go down from $1 per round to $.60 per round again within 6 months. Unless Biden does something.

It will never go back to $.18 per round.

Impossible to predict imo. As I have said in other threads I have been able to purchase about 1200 rounds of 9mm over the past two months at just under 30 cents a round. Most of it being Federal brands. My personal opinion is we will see availability gradually increase sooner than later but prices will be controlled through high taxation. This is the Democrats favorite way of legislating behavior they do not want you participating in. Make it too expensive to participate in for many. And if you do they are happy to collect the tax windfall.

Example would be cigarettes. Government prefers you didn't smoke so in Minnesota for instance there is a 35% tax per pack. I'm guessing there will be a sliding scale as to how much they hate you're chosen vice and tax it accordingly. My guess is they hate ammo far more than cigarettes.

quote:

I am a bit surprised more did not take advantage of the buy cheap and stack deep

Keep in mind, even to seasoned shooters, there are two parts of that equation not everybody can take advantage of. First even when cheap many folks cannot afford to buy in large quantity and second many folks don’t have the space to stack deep. Add in that as new folks transition into the fold they HAVE NO IDEA that supply can be exhausted so easily.

I think if you are a shooter you should do yourself a favor and stash away at least a little ammo for a rainy day but I completely understand not having space in your apartment or townhome or small house etc to pack in cases upon cases of ammo, not to mention the wife factor. I have an extremely pro gun and pro my hobbies wife and I can imagine the look I would get if she walked into ye old walk in closet and saw a few cases of .223 stored there. Frankly two of those rounds might end up in my knees.

If you can I whole heartedly agree buy cheap and stack deep but don’t admonish EVERYBODY for not doing so because between new shooters ignorant to the “game” and folks financial and space limitations not everybody can do so even if they had desired to.