I've had a few quotes done for a solar system for my house and I think I've decided it doesn't make sense for us, but I'd like to run it past a few more people just in case I'm missing something.

As it is now, we pay a month on a "balanced payment plan". Our electricity usage is obviously pretty high in the summer but pretty low in the winter. When the company offered to average it all out and do a fixed payment with an annual adjustment, I hopped on it and it has been working out fine.

Our actual usage over the last 12 months is 13092. Our local power provider must approve all solar installations and will not approve anything over 100% of actual historical usage.

Also highly relevant: excess generated power is credited at 7 cents (I think it was cents) per unit (kw?) but grid-provided power is billed at 14 per unit. So you pay double what they give.

Solar Quote 1:
Company proposes an a system that produces 13077 and includes one Tesla Powerwall to offset grid power to some extent. The payment on this owned system is $182. The power provider charges a $20 monthly connect fee regardless of if you use any grid power or not. So off the bat, this system is $202 a month in cost. After 18 months the payment would rise to $245 (or so, dont remember the exact figure) unless we re-invest the federal tax credit into the loan).

Solar Quote 2:
This company proposed a 7.7kw system that they say offsets our actual usage at 99%. This system does not include a battery. Monthly cost is $108 plus the $20 fee to the power company any the cost of any grid power not offset by credits.

They would do a battery system, but in that case they suggest reducing offset to 75% (less panels). Cost was pretty much the same as the no-battery/more panel system.

So, questions I have...

1) Why are the proposed systems so different in size? If the second system offsets our usage at 99%, why does company A say we need a significantly bigger system to hit the 100% usage limit?

2) I did some reading on the Powerwall and some sources indicate a single Powerwall won't power a whole house air-conditioner. We absolutely must run our air conditioner into the night during summer months. So I have no straight answer

3) We only plan to be in this house, at most, for six more years. Then we'll sell it and flee to free America.

One concern, for either system, is that we'll end up paying for the solar payment PLUS some power usage, primarily during the summer, above the $199 that we are currently paying.

If we assume that system number 2 actually offsets our usage at 99%, best case scenario is a monthly solar + power company payment of about $130, for a savings of about $70/month (or $840 annually) or $5040 over the course of the 6 years we'll be here.

And that is best case scenario, which I imagine is not what will actually play out.

So, in my mind, we'd be taking on $30,000-$40,000 (or more) of debt to save $5,000 and then just have to pay off the remainder of the loan from the equity we should have in our house when we sell it in 2027.

Am I missing something that would change this from a loser of a proposition?

quote:

Originally posted by thumperfbc:
So, in my mind, we'd be taking on $30,000-$40,000 (or more) of debt to save $5,000 and then just have to pay off the remainder of the loan from the equity we should have in our house when we sell it in 2027.

Just that one set of numbers would be enough for me to say it is not worth it.

My dad did solar. The cost of the work was to break even in 10 years. Unfortunately, the efficiency declines well before that so by the break even date the solar panels will likely need to be replaced. I think solar is a scam.

Nope.

Your system does not work out with your timeline. Period.

My system was less than $13k for an 8.12 kWH system, producing 12,000 to 14,500kwh a year, or 120% of my current usage.

My break-even period is 5.5 years. A little less if you count the additional value to the house upon resale.

$30-40k on a system your size is insanity. Don't do it.

quote:

Originally posted by darthfuster:
My dad did solar. The cost of the work was to break even in 10 years. Unfortunately, the efficiency declines well before that so by the break even date the solar panels will likely need to be replaced. I think solar is a scam.

Current panels all seem to carry 20 or 25 year warranties for efficiency, so I don't think someone installing today will necessarily need to replace their panels at 10 years.

They both offered workmanship and production warranties for 25 years, so if power generated fell below what they promised they'd pay the resulting power bill as well as repair the system to promised levels.

I just didn't see a way the system works for us based on numbers given our current plan. I'm glad I'm not the only one.

I think part of the equation that makes this not work is the fact that power is actually pretty affordable from our local Irrigation District. The neighboring communities that use PGE pay GOBS more per unit than we do.

The only remaining argument is that power rates "raise every year", according to the sales people. Unfortunately for them, it seems our provider hasn't substantially raised rates in 12 years, according to quick research I did to try and establish a historical trend.

Sounds like a solution looking for a problem. Maybe in our next home.

Thanks fellas.

quote:

Originally posted by thumperfbc:
They both offered workmanship and production warranties for 25 years, so if power generated fell below what they promised they'd pay the resulting power bill as well as repair the system to promised levels.

I just didn't see a way the system works for us based on numbers given our current plan. I'm glad I'm not the only one.

Thanks fellas.

It's a terrible time right now to buy solar.

There are supply constraints which are causing prices to skyrocket.

Your system would have only cost $12,500 two years ago.

quote:

Originally posted by Aeteocles:

Your system would have only cost $12,500 two years ago.

I didn't make that connection, but it seems obvious now that you point it out. Of course the prices are high now... everything is. I'm dumb. lol

quote:

Originally posted by darthfuster:
My dad did solar. The cost of the work was to break even in 10 years. Unfortunately, the efficiency declines well before that so by the break even date the solar panels will likely need to be replaced. I think solar is a scam.

Then add to that the money you could have made if you'd invested the money in at least an Index Fund if not something better, and you'll see that financially it doesn't make sense.

If you want to buy it as a feel good thing, that's another matter.

I don’t know much about solar systems to advise on the choices. But are you saying you may take a $30K loan and have to pay it off when you sell in 6 years. That makes no kind of sense whatsoever. You won’t gain anywhere near the cost of the system in home equity. Every house my wife has sold with solar it has been a detriment in some way or another.

quote:

Originally posted by Flash-LB:
If you want to buy it as a feel good thing, that's another matter.

30k? Other things matter.

529

Barrett

'67 GTO

quote:

Originally posted by Flash-LB:
...financially it doesn't make sense.

For many, that may be true. However, peace of mind is worth a lot to me. No more worrying about outages, no more worrying about a freezer full of meat going bad, etc....

I've had this discussion with a buddy of mine several times. He won't do it because he states that in the long run it's cheaper not to as he won't spend on power bills, in his remaining years, the ~$20K cost of a system (before rebates/deductions). My argument is that he's assuming that the power is always going to be there and at an affordable price. When it's not, he's fooked.

I'm not set up yet, but I'm hoping to get a system up next year with a large battery bank. Perhaps it's just the prepper in me, but I think that it's a wise investment.

Besides, I've spent a lot more money than that on stupid shit over the years.

My system maths out for me purely on economics, so it's not fair to say that solar doesn't make financial sense.

Systems are completely overpriced right now. If the systems were still costing $1.50 per watt, it would make sense for many people who get lots of sun and pay high energy costs.

quote:

For many, that may be true. However, peace of mind is worth a lot to me. No more worrying about outages, no more worrying about a freezer full of meat going bad, etc....

Whole house generator, about $13K and does add equity to home.

Serious question, is a 25 year warranty worth the paper it's printed on? Is there a proration and you have to buy the same panels? Does it cover labor? What are the chances the company will be in business in 10, 15, 20, or 25 years?

quote:

Originally posted by frayedends:

quote:

For many, that may be true. However, peace of mind is worth a lot to me. No more worrying about outages, no more worrying about a freezer full of meat going bad, etc....

Whole house generator, about $13K and does add equity to home.

Until you run out of gas.

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
Serious question, is a 25 year warranty worth the paper it's printed on? Is there a proration and you have to buy the same panels? Does it cover labor? What are the chances the company will be in business in 10, 15, 20, or 25 years?

Serious answer.

The named entity on my contract is Tesla, Inc (current market cap of $1.1 Trillion dollars).

The warranty comes in three parts: Panels, Inverter, and Workmanship.

In relevant part for the Panels:

"Your solar panels are covered by a warranty from their manufacturer. This warranty will be at least 12 years for workmanship and will guarantee at least 80% of nameplate power capacity for at least 25 years. This warranty will be transferred to you automatically when you pay the Contract Price. At your request we will make any claim under this warranty on your behalf and perform any related labor at our cost."

Similar language appears for Inverter equipment.

Different language appears for Workmanship:

We warrant that (a) our installation workmanship will be free from defects for 20 years from the date your Products are installed (or, in the case of main panel or structural upgrades, 1 year from the date those upgrades were performed); (b) our installation workmanship will not invalidate the manufacturer's warranty for your solar panels or inverter, or the Tesla Powerwall Limited Warranty; (c) all roof penetrations we make will be watertight for the longer of 10 years or until the end of any existing installation warranty or new home builder performance standard for your roof; and (d) we will not damage your property during our installation of your Products. If we breach this warranty, we will repair the defective work, roof penetration or damage at our cost. If we can't do this ourselves, we will pay for someone else to do it. This shall not extend the original warranty period, but the remainder of the original warranty period shall apply to the repair work.

My panels are manufactured by Hanwha Q-Cells. Hanwha has a market cap of $820 million and revenue of $2.2 billion. Hanwha's warranty will either repair the defect, provide a replacement module, or or provide monetary compensation equal to the purchase price subject to 4% annual depreciation.

So, if my panels die at year 10, Hanwha will either replace my panels or will pay me 60% of what I paid for it which can then be used towards new panels which Tesla will install at their own cost.

I certainly expect Tesla, Hanwha, and SolarEdge (the inverter manufacturer) to be in business in 10 years or 25 years. Each is publicly traded with revenue in the billions. They may be merged or acquired, but I suspect their warranty to be valid down the road. Even Sears languished for decades before going out of business, and the Craftsman warranty is still honored by Lowes.

Too many unknowns and variables to do this on the payment plan. Payback and maintenance are pure speculation at this point.
If this stuff is really so great, technical developments will make it a lot better, and likely less expensive, in a few more years.

quote:

Originally posted by Gustofer:

For many, that may be true. However, peace of mind is worth a lot to me. No more worrying about outages, no more worrying about a freezer full of meat going bad, etc....

I've had this discussion with a buddy of mine several times. He won't do it because he states that in the long run it's cheaper not to as he won't spend on power bills, in his remaining years, the ~$20K cost of a system (before rebates/deductions). My argument is that he's assuming that the power is always going to be there and at an affordable price. When it's not, he's fooked.

I'm not set up yet, but I'm hoping to get a system up next year with a large battery bank. Perhaps it's just the prepper in me, but I think that it's a wise investment.

Besides, I've spent a lot more money than that on stupid shit over the years.

I agree, there is value in being prepared given the overall context of the whole picture. For us, it isn't there at this time.

We are short-timing it. We never have power disruptions that last more than an hour or two, and I can count those on one hand over the last 10 years.

We don't have severe weather.

But, change those options and I would be so quick to write the whole thing off.

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
What are the chances the company will be in business in 10, 15, 20, or 25 years?

That was another concern I had as there seem to be a million of these solar companies that have popped up. I didn't even mention it in my original post as the financials seemed so far out of whack that it didn't seem relevant. But I do think you're right to be hesitant on those grounds.

quote:

Originally posted by frayedends:

quote:

For many, that may be true. However, peace of mind is worth a lot to me. No more worrying about outages, no more worrying about a freezer full of meat going bad, etc....

Whole house generator, about $13K and does add equity to home.

I think a generator capable of running our freezer, fridge, and the electric ignitor on our gas-fired water heater in addition to some lights is a much different thing and likely something I will do.

It would be easy to tap into our natural gas lines to supply fuel as well, so a tri-fuel option really makes a ton of sense to me. I always have a propane bottle on the griddle, plus two in reserve. So that supply of propane, plus the ability to run a generator off gas as well as the NG feed, seems prudent and worth the $1000 bucks or whatever it would cost.

When I built out my solar system, I didn't even opt for backup redundancy.

If the power goes out, so does my solar--my solar system (like most out there) does not have any batteries/storage and relies on grid power to smooth out power delivery to my house.

There is some neat tech coming out recently that allows grid-free solar installations *without* batteries. It uses microcontrollers that instantly controls solar production so that you only produce exactly as much as you are using and not feeding anything back into the grid.

But that's beside the point. Solar as off-grid or backup power right now is not a good financial move. From a survival prepper standpoint, sure. But not from a math standpoint. Here I am, with a solar system already on my roof, and it still makes more sense to buy a shed, a couple jerry cans of gasoline, and an inverter generator with a 100ft extension cord for "emergencies."

Edit: here's the link for some new permission free solar tech:

https://www.indiegogo.com/proj...ree-energy-with-ai#/