I hope some of our European members chime in and give us their perspective …

quote:

If the far right were to form a single group it would be the second largest force in Parliament, behind the traditionally dominant European People’s Party. The rivalries and disagreements within its ranks make that scenario unlikely, but its sheer size will nonetheless put rightward pressure on EU policy.

I recall a headline in which Urban was trying to convince Meloni into being the leader of a populist group in the EU Parliament. So there's definitely talk of a coalition.

quote:

Originally posted by downtownv:
Ne t'inquiète pas mon petit flocon de neige

Mais c’est tordant ça!



0-0

Amazing how the left absolutely lose their ability to function or fly into a rage if things don't go their way. Honestly, they act like spoiled children.

OLD THREAD ALERT:

France's Fiscal Death Spiral: A Nation Incapable Of Reform

Submitted By Thomas Kolbe

What is now unfolding in France may soon drag the entire Eurozone into deep turmoil. The country is staggering through a fiscal crisis while locked in a political stalemate that seems impossible to break. In the bond market, the clock is ticking loudly as France’s public debt spirals out of control.

This week, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu celebrated a textbook Pyrrhic victory. On Tuesday, the National Assembly narrowly approved his draft for next year’s social budget. But the win came at a steep price: sweeping concessions that will only worsen an already explosive fiscal situation.

Strange coalitions

With 247 votes in favor, 234 against, and 93 abstentions, the Assembly passed a plan projecting a €20 billion deficit in the social budget – significantly worse than the originally planned €17 billion. Marine Le Pen’s party and the far-left bloc around Jean-Luc Mélenchon both rejected the proposal.

It is surreal: political gridlock has driven France into a place where the far-left and the right vote together – and collectively push the government toward collapse. For President Emmanuel Macron, this could soon mean assembling yet another fragile government, as there is no indication France can lift itself out of its catastrophic stalemate.

The bill now moves to the Senate, where the governing coalition holds a majority. It will likely pass without major obstruction. On December 23rd, the Senate begins negotiations for the 2026 budget. It may provide drama, but no one seriously expects the political blockade to change.

Pension reform on ice – permanent reform paralysis

Lecornu was forced to freeze the planned pension reform, which would have raised the retirement age from 62 to 64. Instead, France will raise it only to 62 years and nine months. The country maintains the largest social budget in the EU while keeping one of the lowest retirement ages. Once again, France sidesteps its growing pension crisis, following Germany down the same dangerous path of a collapsing pay-as-you-go system. Paris also refuses to address the fiscal consequences of illegal migration – a social time bomb whose fuse is already burning.

This decision exposes the deep political denial embedded in France’s leadership: they continue living at the expense of future generations, consuming economic substance that no longer exists. France has become fundamentally incapable of reform and is drifting straight into a severe fiscal crisis.

This year’s budget deficit is roughly 5.6% of GDP. The government’s wildly optimistic projection for next year is 5%. With huge gaps in the social accounts, no one can explain how this number could be reached. It is pure fantasy. A far more realistic expectation is a deficit between 6% and 7%.

France’s political crisis mirrors its economic paralysis. Economic productivity has been shrinking for years. With a state share of 57% of GDP, the government blocks the free allocation of capital and absorbs the very resources required to revive the economy. France has never been comfortable with market economics and now, like a Siamese twin of Berlin’s disastrous policies, pushes central planning deeper into the economy.

Economic ossification

With 68,000 corporate insolvencies over the past twelve months and an industrial sector stuck in contraction, the country is heading directly into a severe social crisis – already reflected in an inescapable fiscal trap.

France is experiencing a bankruptcy wave of biblical proportions, likely costing 400,000 jobs this year. The economy is on its knees, and the French retreat into the illusion that endless debt can somehow restore their welfare system.

We have seen what this means for Eurozone stability: fifteen years ago, tiny Greece lost access to markets and triggered a debt crisis that spread like wildfire across Europe.

Back then, the credibility of Eurozone monetary policy was sacrificed to keep the highly interconnected credit markets liquid through massive ECB intervention and years of bailouts.

If the Eurozone’s second-largest economy experiences an “air pocket” on its bond market – a sudden collapse in demand for its swelling debt issuance – the traditional toolkit of the European Central Bank will not be enough to contain the fallout.

A secular shift in global bonds

In an acute crisis, the ECB would be ready to intervene. Its main tool would be sovereign bond purchases under the PSPP (Public Sector Purchase Programme). Additional liquidity could be injected through targeted long-term refinancing operations or via support for banks holding large volumes of French sovereign debt.

The Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program could also be activated, allowing direct purchases of crisis-country bonds – though only under strict fiscal-conditionality rules. But in the next crisis, those conditions will almost certainly be ignored to prevent the Eurozone from disintegrating. The ECB already provided the playbook when Mario Draghi uttered his famous “whatever it takes.”

Yet the ECB’s actual influence has limits: the long end of the bond market – maturities beyond ten years – is the deepest and most liquid segment. No single central bank can truly control it.

For months, long-term yields have been rising – first in Japan, now increasingly across parts of the Eurozone. The market is signaling a fundamental loss of confidence in the debt sustainability of fiscally undisciplined states.

A secular turning point in global bond markets has already occurred. At its climax, it will mark the final full stop on every pending fiscal crisis. Think Argentina. The age of the chainsaw is approaching.

https://www.zerohedge.com/poli...ion-incapable-reform

chellim, what are the rules about bumping old threads?

Fixed.

What's the rule, please? You must mark the thread as old after what amount of time since the last post in the thread?

Ummm.... 3 months? 6 months?
Something in that range.

See, this is why I give you a hard time about this. You think this is cute? You bump old threads, and you know there is a rule about this, yet you don't have the respect for me or those rules to learn them and adhere to them.

I don't appreciate this one bit, having to keep after you to respect my rules, and then you getting cute about it while you're wasting my time.

Do your research. Find the thread on this subject, or ask someone, and I'm not playing this game with you again.

quote:

Do your research. Find the thread on this subject...

OK, I found it. The answer is four months.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
I don't object to the resurrection of old threads, as long as new posts to such threads are relevant to the subject matter at hand. This can actually be of benefit, since an old thread on a given subject might contain quite a bit of information or perspective.

However, bumping old threads can make for confusion and, sometimes, anger. Few members, if any, are so diligent in their reading of threads, that they look at the dates on other posts right off the bat, and once they realize they are replying to an old thread, they tend to speak up.

So, beginning today, the forum has a new policy. If you bump a thread in which the *last post* is more than four months old, the first thing your post should contain is "This is an older thread"

In addition to the courtesy of this caveat, its absence might indicate that the poster is a bot, and this helps me keep the forum clean.

I am asking members to bump old threads sparingly. Don't bump old threads on a whim. Do it with purpose.

If you see someone bump an old thread and they don't follow this new policy, please refrain from challenging them. Instead, use the report-this-post tool, which is located in the lower right corner of every post, just to the right of the Edit button, and I will tend to the matter.

Most of you who might bump an old thread will likely need to be reminded of this new policy the first time you encounter it. I'll probably need reminding, too.