I had an interesting conversation with someone recently who is fully convinced me will be in a full kinetic war with China within the next decade. I thought tensions between China and the USA had cooled down. I don't think he's an idiot, he is much more educated than me on these issues, but I think is also prone to exaggeration.

What do you all think?

Depends on what China does to Taiwan. I don't think we have the man power or will to go to war with China and China can't take the economic hit so I doubt anything happens.

My first thought is that there's too much at stake economically for both countries. But then, Japan also had a ton of economic reasons to not start crap with the U.S. in 1941. The political reality was that the Japanese leaders had backed themselves into a geopolitical corner and had no choice but to try to fight out of it, even if it was a suicide mission.

The U.S. is tied to China economically like a rich drug addict and his drug dealer are tied together. We need each other but we loathe each other at the same time. There might be some small slap fighting, but I don't think it will be anything large. Unless someone feels they're in a corner...

No.

What would either of us gain from a war with our largest trade partner?

Neither country terrorizes the other. Neither country threatens the territorial sovereignty of the other. Each country's political influence is directly tied to it's economic influence, and economic influence can't be won by winning wars these days.

Only if they try to take Taiwan by force.

They could decide that whoever is in power does not have the stomach or will to defend them.

Coin toss, if they are correct in the future.

Yes.

Forget the economics. Japan and Germany both declared war on their major trade partners last century, I’ve never understood the trade = peace equation. Throughout history, trade = war at the point that one trading partner can conquer or subjugate the other.

China sees itself as the Middle Kingdom, the center of the world. To them, the US is an embarrassment, a slap in the face of the true rulers of this planet.

It may not be 10 years, but we will be in a massive war with them in the next decades. If we survive, which may be doubtful, I expect massive retribution on those who enriched themselves at the cost of the lives of young American men and women.

Until then, keep buying your cheap shit at Harbor Freight. For every $150 you spend, you get a commemorative tombstone in the future.

Within the next 10,000 years, yes. It even came to me in a dream. A solitary Chinese soldier in space suit hovering in orbit, waiting for a particular satellite he was to destroy. There will be so much crap in orbit at that point one will have no defense against the single-soldier.

Define war- I would submit that we are already at war to some degree. We are certainly in the the preliminary stages of espionage, theft of tech and information that is fueling an arms race.

As far as a shooting war is concerned, we won’t be going toe to toe alone; it would be a global phenomenon. Given Chinas global aspirations it seems inevitable.

Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.

quote:

Originally posted by reloader-1:
...Forget the economics. Japan and Germany both declared war on their major trade partners last century, I’ve never understood the trade = peace equation. Throughout history, trade = war at the point that one trading partner can conquer or subjugate the other...

I'm reading (listening to on Audible actually) "A Peace to End All Peace; The Fall of the Ottoman Empire" and I'm staggered at the effort all of the belligerent powers are putting into fucking over their allies and enemies alike. Millions dead in the trenches of Europe while British leadership plans the partition of the Ottoman empire largely to secure a land route from Egypt to India.

I'm left with the impression that political violence (war) is a condition of our species. Yes, one day we'll be at war with China.

Will we fight Chinese troops in the next decade? Quite possibly. Will the fight be in China or the United States? Probably not. Taiwan is a possibility, but I still don’t think a terribly likely one. Africa or Souh America seem more likely places where we will end up in conflict to me. I’m still not sure if it will be an all out proxy war, or just some skirmishing between ‘advisors’. Time will tell.

- Bret

We are already in a type of war or competition with several countries.
China and Russia are the majors, anyone we have sanctions on otherwise.
Will they be all out shooting wars like WW2. No. Why? Nukes.
Will there be other forms like cyberwarfare? There are already skirmishes.
How far they go, who knows.

We’re already at war with China. Economically.

In the next decade? I don't know.

Other than that, a war with Red China is highly probable and will remain so until it actually happens. They have to expand to avoid political and economic collapse. They've shown no interest in pursuing alternatives, only alternative courses to the same outcome. They've consistently behaved like the Turks - if they don't dominate in all spheres at all times, they feel compelled to doubt their own manhood. With that toxic mix of stupidity always brewing, yes, war between us is inevitable.

Oh, and as for nukes? Remember, these folks think that they're both subtle and clever - and sometimes they are. That builds the wrong kind of confidence if the goal is to avoid war, and war will always raise the possibility of a nuclear exchange.

I'll say that it really depends on what is happening with the Nork's and the Taiwanese. China is continuously pulling the Nork's strings and undermining any kind of progress between the US and North Korea.

China casts a large shadow over Taiwan and feel that it's their sovereign property. One day, China just might see the financial gain from taking back Taiwan as incentive enough to invade. There are also quite a few contested spots in Japan that China claims, so there's that too. It wouldn't make much sense for either side if both economies are doing well, but if one starts hurting and the other is doing well, then it's entirely possible.

In reality, I think both the US and China flex their jaw muscles more than their military might, but if it ever came down to it, I'd want a President like DJT in charge. No puss-footing around. Just hard decisions with a person willing to make them.

quote:

Originally posted by sig2392:
Only if they try to take Taiwan by force.

They could decide that whoever is in power does not have the stomach or will to defend them.

Which is why, if I were Taiwan, I'd be pursuing some amalgam of the Swiss model and the U.S. RKBA: Arm, supply and train every able-bodied individual in the country.

Make it too expensive to even consider.

I can't see why we would be at war in the next decade. The Chinese will own the United States (all our Sovereign Debt) before then.

No. Who wants to bet and how much?

The last WWIII scenario I read involved the US vs. China after the Chinese attempted to attack the Philippines.
It was largely an air and naval battle, akin to the Battle of Midway.
I forget where I read it. Maybe Dale Brown?
Since history repeats itself, war with anyone would not surprise me.

Regardless of treaties, our reputation, and what we have said for years, I do not believe there is any situation which would cause us to go to war with China over Taiwan. No one in our Country has the stomach to pay the cost to fight China, if, as a matter of their national pride, they decide to take back Taiwan by force. There is nothing we might "win" which would be worth the cost.

There is no shame in being realistic about how and when we decide to put our military in harms way.