SIGforum
Real estate boom, bust, boom (rinse and repeat)
June 15, 2026, 04:23 PM
rizzleReal estate boom, bust, boom (rinse and repeat)
I'm not so sure that you can compare history right now.
Massive credit card debt.
June 15, 2026, 07:08 PM
Rick LeeIf I had to decide between paying my mortgage or credit cards, I'd go with the mortgage. They won't foreclose if you're making payments and there's not much credit card companies can do to you. Either way, your credit is getting trashed, but you have to live somewhere.
Freewill Firearms
07 FFL, Class 2 SOT
June 16, 2026, 06:37 AM
Powers77quote:
Originally posted by Batty67:
I live in a nice but not super-nice suburb in northern Virginia. In fact, the very same neighborhood my wife and her 4 siblings grew up. My kids graduated from the same grade and secondary (HS) school as she did. We moved here in 2006 right before home values plummeted. Our house lost about 20 to 25% of its value by 2009. But we had benefitted from the big rise from selling our townhouse we got when we married in 1997...so it was lost equity.
From 2009 to 2019 it slowly regained all of the lost value, and from, 2019 to present, the value has shot past we we paid for it at the height of the market in 2006, probably to the tune of 10-15%. Of course, we've been semi-aggressively paying down the mortgage and periodically refinancing, so we only owe about 1/3rd of the current home value.
So, I'm officially old enough to see a boom, bust, slow recovery, and boom. I just hope it does not bust again when we look to sell out home in about 9-10 years and retire.
I wonder if home prices in Las Vegas are back to full-blown nuts, etc. Home flipping back in vogue? Banks finding new ways to give shitty loans to those that cannot afford homes, who will asked to be bailed out at the next bust, etc...?
I can confirm that the prices in Vegas passed full blown nuts about 2019. We moved there in 2009 at the peak of their bust. We then sold in 2020 to move East for elder care responsibilities. When we sold in 2020 it was for almost 100% more than we had paid. (we had remodeled fairly extensively, but still)
We considered returning to Vegas in 2024. Prices had continued to increase. Some ballpark numbers to illistrate.
2009 $270,000
2019 $515,000
2024 $625,000
All for the same house in the same neiborhood.
I know it increased since 2024 but don't have solid numbers for youl
June 16, 2026, 07:02 AM
chongosuerteIt’s insane. I’m sitting at a 2.5% interest rate. I’d be absolutely insane to sell. 2 bedroom apartments in my area are more than my mortgage for a 3,000 sq foot house. Incredulous.
I’ll retire in 9 years and get TF out of this city. But no clue where I’ll go. Dreading getting out of that interest rate.
Knowing what one is talking about is widely admired but not strictly required here.
Although sometimes distracting, there is often a certain entertainment value to this easy standard.
-JALLEN
"All I need is a WAR ON DRUGS reference and I got myself a police thread BINGO." -jljones
June 16, 2026, 07:13 AM
pace40Housing market around me is certainly not cooling. We get reassessed every 10 years and just got the new one. 85% increase in value over 2017 and that's actually about 6% lower than comp sales over the same period. Thankful that, by law, millage rates must be adjusted so taxing authorities remain income neutral. My property tax went down 5.5% after the last reassessment. We'll see what it does after this one.
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Pace
June 16, 2026, 07:25 AM
ridewvquote:
Originally posted by chongosuerte:
It’s insane. I’m sitting at a 2.5% interest rate. I’d be absolutely insane to sell. 2 bedroom apartments in my area are more than my mortgage for a 3,000 sq foot house. Incredulous.
I’ll retire in 9 years and get TF out of this city. But no clue where I’ll go. Dreading getting out of that interest rate.
Hopefully with the equity you won't need financing at all by then.
No car is as much fun to drive, as any motorcycle is to ride.
June 16, 2026, 08:41 AM
Fly-SigWith all the population influx in this state, values keep going up.
Just a quick reminder to those who may have taxable capital gains on your home, >$250k if you're single, >$500k if married. If you sell in the calendar year you (or your spouse) turns 63, or any year after that, you may trigger IRMAA penalties on your Medicare.
That is an additional $4100 to $9900
per person for one year. So, worst case for a couple is nearly a $20k penalty.
So if you are planning on selling near retirement, it may make sense to sell prior to the calendar year the oldest of you turns 63.
June 16, 2026, 09:15 AM
jaaron11The problem with the real estate cycle is that you are usually a buyer and a seller at the same time. During a boom, your inflated profits from selling are eaten up by the inflated cost of buying. The only way to really profit is through investment holdings.
A snapshot for SW Missouri, prices are holding pretty steady down here. We bought our house for $350k in 2019. By 2022 it was estimated at $520k. Today it is estimated at $530k.
2019 - 2022: 49% growth (16% per year)
2022 - 2026: 2% growth (0.5% per year)
J
Rak Chazak Amats June 16, 2026, 09:16 AM
220-9erquote:
Originally posted by chongosuerte:
It’s insane. I’m sitting at a 2.5% interest rate. I’d be absolutely insane to sell. 2 bedroom apartments in my area are more than my mortgage for a 3,000 sq foot house. Incredulous.
This is a big problem that is unique to this recent slowing market.
Many people have those artificially low interest rates from the Covid era and have a hard time moving, across country or town.
Even moving into a home that's the same price as the one they're leaving means a large increase in their interest rate and payment.
That leads to having to become a landlord for the old property while a renter in the new location.
Not a healthy situation.
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June 16, 2026, 09:44 AM
DennisMquote:
Originally posted by jaaron11:
The problem with the real estate cycle is that you are usually a buyer and a seller at the same time.
Wife and I were talking about that just this weekend. The only "way out" is to buy in a different market, and to be in the first/early wave to do it.
Like chongosuerte, we're sitting on the lowest interest rate of our lifetime (before or future) and there is no scenario where a move that involves a NEW mortgage will make much sense. It's "pay cash from the proceeds of the old house or bust."
June 16, 2026, 11:13 AM
RogueJSKYep. With my 2% mortgage, they're going to be carting me out of this house in a body bag before I ever leave willingly.