quote:

Originally posted by oddball:
People out there who are equating this to Obama's Iran deal are stupid, really stupid .

The Obama deal gave $1.7 billion to Iran, the text of this deal is $300 billion.

The Obama deal kept some Iran sanctions in place, while the text of this deal lifts ALL sanctions.

I’m just going by the deal itself; we shall see. The Obama deal was a travesty and a disgusting piece of paper that rivals Neville Chamberlain.

quote:

Originally posted by reloader-1:
The Obama deal kept some Iran sanctions in place, while the text of this deal lifts ALL sanctions.

I am pretty sure that any obama "sanctions" were in name only. The Iranians' uranium enrichment program went into hyper-drive under Barry, financed by the $1.7 billion in cash he air-dropped to their ayatollah, with zero accountability.



.

The "deal" is 300 billion in investment opportunity not tax dollars and is tied to Iran maintaining the agreement. So not up front, but over time based on good behavior. Again no tax dollars.

quote:

Originally posted by Ranger41:
The "deal" is 300 billion in investment opportunity not tax dollars and is tied to Iran maintaining the agreement. So not up front, but over time based on good behavior. Again no tax dollars.

I haven't read it yet, but a cursory look leads me to believe a significant portion(maybe most?) of that money is going to outside companies that will be rebuilding Iran's infrastructure. It is not going to grubby little hands of the ayatollah du jour.



.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
Insult me, piss, moan, kick me off the forum.

Cut this childish shit out. Cut it out. Grow up. Stop playing the victim. If you're so sure of yourself, stop beginning posts with "para may yell at me" and ridiculous shit like that. Just state your case, and stop making dire predictions as if you're being victimized. Childish

You want to talk about insults, Skins? Insulting is when you, as a long-time member, express concern that I may ban you over you expressing your opinion. THAT is insulting.

Grow up

I didn't think I'd be banned, but expected an over the top reaction to my displeasure with this deal. It's a wasted effort and in the end it legitimizes and helps the regime.

I rather send them $300,000,000,000 in ordnance than aid.

quote:

I rather send them $300,000,000,000 in ordnance than aid.

Is it American taxpayer money... or seized Iranian money?

Trump's responses to the reporters' questions to justify the agreement with Iran were bizarre and unprecedented in their own way:

They asked him how he could allow $300 billion in investment in Iran. He said, "We've already inflicted $2 trillion in damage on Iran; $300 billion is nothing in comparison."

They asked why he's giving Iran tens of billions of dollars. He said, "If we don't return their own money to them, other countries will be afraid to put their money in our banks, and then the dollar's position will weaken."

They asked why the missile issue isn't in the agreement. He said, "We've already destroyed 85% of their missiles anyway; the rest are buried underground, and besides, we sell air defense systems to the countries in the region so they won't worry about Iran's missiles."

They asked if he's not worried that Iran will say, "We're only producing nuclear energy for civilian purposes." He said, "You can't tell everyone else to produce electricity with nuclear power while only Iran can't."

Finally, he said, "If we continue sanctioning Iran, 91 million Iranians will die of hunger—what's the point of that, really?"

Oh, and he joked that "If [the Iran deal] works out, I'm going to take the credit; if it doesn't work out, I'm blaming [Vance]."

https://www.zerohedge.com/geop...l-set-friday-signing

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
I didn't think I'd be banned, but expected an over the top reaction to my displeasure with this deal.

You need to stop playing games with me. You come in here and behave childishly, and then you imply my reaction to your childish behavior is "over the top". Stop trying to be clever and just do what your fellow members do- state your case without the drama and refrain from this "ban me" bullshit.

I doubt that you even recognize that an apology from you would be appropriate. This crap about getting banned over stating your opinion is highly insulting.

I won't hold my breath.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/...cwKx8fMKQydTbFpzg%3D

US, Iran Sign Memorandum of Understanding to End War

Details of the agreement were revealed earlier Wednesday by a senior U.S. official.

The United States and Iran signed an agreement on June 17 to end the nearly four-month-long war, a U.S. official told The Epoch Times.

The memorandum of understanding—which involves reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran halting its nuclear weapons program, and potential future economic relief if Iran adheres to the United States’ demands—is now in effect, after President Donald Trump signed it while in Versailles for the annual G7 leaders summit.

Details of the interim deal were revealed by a senior U.S. official in a call with reporters earlier Wednesday.

The agreement entails Iran immediately reopening the strait without tolls during a 60-day period of negotiations.

Iran also agreed to, at a minimum, reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium.

If Iran responds favorably, the deal will allow for future economic relief from regional partners in the form of a $300 billion reconstruction fund for damage incurred during the war.

A U.S. official had said that the United States will not be directly contributing money to the fund—only helping with its development—and would instead permit sanctions relief if Iran complies with the deal. This could be in the form of a neighboring nation, such as the United Arab Emirates, building a power plant in Iran.

Furthermore, the agreement would allow Iran to sell its oil without restrictions, and the 60-day window would be used for negotiations on the country’s nuclear program.

A senior official said that once all parties signed and ratified the memorandum of understanding, the United States would begin removing its naval blockade around Iran.

The final plan won’t be implemented until after the 60-day window, according to the deal, and the United States will grant any licenses, waivers, or permissions that are required for the relevant financial transactions.

Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino posted a video on X of Trump signing the deal in Versailles, with French President Emmanuel Macron sitting directly to his left, followed by applause.

“Good job, great job,” Macron could be heard saying.

Trump handed the agreement to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, then shook Macron’s hand. More applause followed.

“It’s signed,” Trump said as he left Versailles. “I signed it in Versailles. ... Just signed it.”

Pakistani President Shehbaz Sharif, who has been a key moderator in the talks between Iran and the United States, also announced the signing in a post on X, saying it “demonstrates the commitment of both sides to a diplomatic resolution of the conflict.”

“I offer my heartfelt congratulations and sincere appreciation to the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump whose steadfast commitment to diplomacy and preference for peaceful resolution have once again helped end a conflict that could have led to devastating consequences for the region and beyond,” Sharif wrote.

The Pakistani president commended Vice President JD Vance, special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, and special envoy for peace Jared Kushner for their “invaluable contributions.”

Sharif also expressed his appreciation to Iranian Supreme Leader Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian for their “wisdom, foresight and statesmanship in embracing the cause of peace,” and the rest of the Iranian negotiating team whose “patience, perseverance and commitment to constructive engagement were instrumental” to bringing the deal to fruition.

Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt were also acknowledged by Sharif for their roles in the signing of the deal.

“May this Memorandum of Understanding serve as an enduring foundation for greater understanding, mutual respect and shared prosperity for the complete region,” Sharif said.

Co-mediator Qatar will host a formal ceremony on Friday in Switzerland to commemorate the signing and commence with “the technical level talks,” Sharif said.

Speaking at the annual G7 Summit earlier Wednesday, Trump said the memorandum was likely to be signed by Thursday or Friday and that Iran had “been acting very appropriately.”

The U.S. president warned that if negotiations collapse within the 60-day period or if Iran does not fulfil its end of the now-signed memorandum, then “we go back to bombing.”

I’m so fucking sick and tired of people supposedly on our side keep acting like the $300 billion will come directly from US taxpayers. They are not, ok? I get it, the incurable TDS lunatics, the corrupt press and the war hawks who would love to see this conflict continue keep peddling the lie, but why would you fall for it? A little research would clear things up for you.

I’ll say it again, Iran’s nuclear weapon ambition has been set back years, their military decimated, how is this not a win? You can’t just continue dropping conventional bombs and missiles, because whatever little they have left is likely well hidden now, and you’d achieve nothing except inflicting collateral damage.

quote:

Originally posted by 12131:
I’m so fucking sick and tired of people supposedly on our side keep acting like the $300 billion will come directly from US taxpayers. They are not, ok? I get it, the incurable TDS lunatics, the corrupt press and the war hawks who would love to see this conflict continue keep peddling the lie, but why would you fall for it? A little research would clear things up for you.

I’ll say it again, Iran’s nuclear weapon ambition has been set back years, their military decimated, how is this not a win? You can’t just continue dropping conventional bombs and missiles, because whatever little they have left is likely well hidden now, and you’d achieve nothing except inflicting collateral damage.

100%

There is another thing flying under the radar the hand wringers have missed: Trump has managed to get the countries around the PG, Saudi Arabia, Oman, etc., to take an active role in this. He has, in effect, started the process of turning the Iran problem over to them to deal with, rather than just us and Israel. It is no longer a West vs. Muslim issue, it is a group of Muslim and non-Muslims agains Iran. If you want long term peace, it could never be achieved by the US and Israel alone. It may not satiate the blood lust of some, but I am thinking this is likely to be a much better long-term solution.

quote:

Originally posted by 12131:
I’m so fucking sick and tired of people supposedly on our side keep acting like the $300 billion will come directly from US taxpayers. They are not, ok? I get it, the incurable TDS lunatics, the corrupt press and the war hawks who would love to see this conflict continue keep peddling the lie, but why would you fall for it? A little research would clear things up for you.

I’ll say it again, Iran’s nuclear weapon ambition has been set back years, their military decimated, how is this not a win? You can’t just continue dropping conventional bombs and missiles, because whatever little they have left is likely well hidden now, and you’d achieve nothing except inflicting collateral damage.

It is ridiculous, people again falling for propaganda hook, line, and sinker.

Again.

It is astounding on how Iran is today, June 17, 2026 compared to the Biden years, Obama, Bush, Clinton, Reagan presidential terms. And Trump is the man to change this horrible cycle.

It seems many detractors want Iran crushed. DT has left a possibility to rebuild instead of a humanitarian crisis that could last for decades. That is quite a chess game to play and maybe it won't happen that Iran becomes a peaceful and productive country. If it works, it may be one of the most amazing achievements in American foreign relations history.

^^^^ Yup, I'm glad someone else is thinking this. I meant to write this last night: Remember WW II Germany and Japan? They were our mortal enemies, their countries totally devastated, and who took part in helping them rebuild after the war? That's right. They bounced back strong and became among our strongest allies.

The lifeblood of Islam is Taqiyya.

This is the final text as reported by NBC (sourced from a "senior administration official" (which typically means JD Vance). It differs slightly from the version I posted previously (shame on me for posting an unverified version) but not in ways that significantly improve the deal. At the very least, they have ended hostilities against them and kicked the can down the road to the point where domestic American politics make it unlikely the US will restart a military campaign. But it also appears that they have gained significant concessions that, in my view, squandered the military victory we achieved and snatched a defeat from the jaws of victory. Yes we significantly degraded their military capabilities and set back their nuclear program for a long time, but they are playing a very long game and will rebuild their military. Can they rebuild the nuclear program eventually? We'll see. It depends on the inspection regime that gets negotiated and on the will of the international community in a post-Trump world.

If they have turned over a new leaf and have decided to become responsible members of the international community, then that's great and all will work out. But that's probably not great bet. If they continue to act as a malign power, then this deal will end up being a massive win for them. Time will tell.

A couple things to note: The MOU purports to end hostilities in Lebanon as well, although Israel is not a party to the agreement. Thus, Iran has succeeded in driving a wedge between the US and Israel, turning the US into Iran's partner in rescuing Hezbollah (not to mention the very public criticism of Netanyahu that Trump has made recently to prove he is not Israel's puppet). There is NO mention in the MOU of Iran's support for regional terrorist proxies or of Iran's missile and drone programs. As for Hormuz, the Strait is to remain open and toll free for 60 days only, after which period Iran will work with Oman to determine future administration of the Strait. That situation is worse than the status quo ante.

I think Trump went as far as he was willing to go militarily. I don't fault him for stopping short of a ground war that would have cost a lot of American lives, but there are limits to what an air campaign can achieve. Once he reached that point where he wasn't willing to go further, he needed an exit....and fast. I have a feeling that this deal will be widely criticized here at home, even on the right, and will not restore the political capital that Trump expended on the war. In the end, it will hurt him, his presidency, his legacy and the party's prospects in November.

So I'm still the pessimist on this issue, but I hope I'm proven wrong.


1. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing this MOU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.

2. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs. ​

3. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.

4. Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

5. Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles in de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and Maritime Services Administrator Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

6. The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days.

7. The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, i.e. IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

9. Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any distinctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

10. The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

11. The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Upon the implementation of this MOU, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

12. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.

13. After signing this MOU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

14. The final deal will be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.

LINK

Energy Cliff, Supply Chain Shock: The Toxic Cocktail Behind The Urgent Push For An Iran Deal

The U.S.-Iran interim peace deal has been signed, and the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz is now beginning. Tanker traffic through the critical waterway is slowly resuming, though a full return to pre-war or near-pre-war energy flows could take months.

But behind the urgency to get the memorandum of understanding deal across the finish line were two uncomfortable realities.

First, President Trump recently met with oil and gas executives, who likely informed the administration that the conflict and the shuttered Hormuz maritime chokepoint were leading to an energy cliff that would materialize by mid-summer.

On Wednesday at the G7 Summit in France, Trump acknowledged the uncomfortable truth that SPRs used to offset lost Gulf energy production were being drained at an alarming rate.

"We run out of reserves in about four weeks," Trump told reporters.

Trump said the world would have run out of oil reserves in 4 weeks, put pressure for a peace agreement.

Says it would have been "bedlam".

The latest Department of Energy data showed Cushing, Oklahoma, stockpiles declined for the eighth straight week, taking inventories to just above 20 million barrels. That's the lowest inventories have been at the storage hub since October 2014, and takes us to what are considered essentially 'tank-bottoms', the point at which the hub is unable to fully operate.

Second, the physical disruption in global supply chains had begun spreading beyond energy flows and into shipping costs, threatening to transmit the Hormuz crisis into broader goods inflation.

Last month, UBS analyst Pierre Lafourcade warned, "Supply chain stress is rising at its fastest pace since the early pandemic." This prompted Lafourcade to re-launch the Global Supply Chain Stress Index.

Earlier this morning, Lafourcade warned in a new note that "supply chain stress spreads to shipping cost" and that "continues to rise."

https://www.zerohedge.com/comm...cktail-get-iran-deal

quote:

Originally posted by 12131:
I’m so fucking sick and tired of people supposedly on our side keep acting like the $300 billion will come directly from US taxpayers. They are not, ok? I get it, the incurable TDS lunatics, the corrupt press and the war hawks who would love to see this conflict continue keep peddling the lie, but why would you fall for it? A little research would clear things up for you.

It's 2 things. First, they know that Trump is evil, stupid, naive, selfish, etc, so there is no way he could have done something good. There's no reason to do any research. I have had these discussions with the TDS crowd and they refuse to look beyond memes on Facebook or whatever articles the algorithm feeds them inside their bubble. Second, they want Trump to fail, even if it means the USA fails. They love peddling any lie that makes Trump look bad, and even better if it harms Trump's agenda.

These people are not "on our side". They are of the mindset that Trump is the enemy, and the enemy of their enemy is their friend.

Everyone is a critic, but nobody offers any better options.
At the end of the day, it does not matter what agreement is in place if the US is unwilling to enforce it. That was the issue with Obama's plan, and Trump's maximum pressure policies were undermined by Biden weakness.
Trump will likely enforce his plan aggressively (especially after mid terms). It is almost guaranteed than any Democrat administration that follows will ignore it. The weakness in the plan is the DNC not the plan itself.

quote:

The weakness in the plan is the DNC not the plan itself.

Exactly!

Whatever is to be done has to be completed quickly enough that oil (and knock on costs) falls months before midterm and is irreversible. That's why my hopes for for destruction or capitulate. I was/am hoping to put a bow on it and move on to additional Abraham Accords to link the ME financially and regionally and give Trump a good win to carry the party in November and 2028.

This is our only shot.

An opinion this morning from Gareth Soloway is interesting. He's a former Wall St institutional trader who has gone solo and does daily analysis of markets.

He posits that Trump signed the MOU on Wednesday rather than Friday in order to keep the stock market up. The US markets are closed Friday, so Thursday is the last trading day of the week. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve announced no change to their interest rate, which sent the post-closing markets into a big down turn.

By signing the MOU early, he took focus away from the Fed's announcement, and he took away uncertainty of whether the MOU would actually be signed. The after-hours markets rebounded right away. He avoided the markets going into the long weekend with a major down trading day on Thursday.

Trump is keenly aware of the various markets. He will not be stupid about economic factors into the mid-terms.