The Iran War

June 14, 2026, 12:42 PM

ChicagoSigMan

quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
And here's another one who seems to always be pessimistic on this issue. ChicagoSigMan
quote:
And yet it seems that’s exactly what’s happening with Trump.
No, it is not, and if you want to take the position that it is, you're not worth taking seriously on this conflict.

You and this reporter must think Donald Trump is a fool.

I do not think Trump is a fool. I think there is no one I'd rather have in the Oval Office at this moment, but yes, I am skeptical that a diplomatic conclusion that actually solves the bigger issues is possible. I was going to write a lengthy explanation and defense of my position, but I'm not out to change anyone's mind. Obviously, it's impossible to make a definitive judgment until the final text of a signed deal is made public so we can see exactly what was agreed to and what enforcement mechanisms are in place, but yes, I am skeptical and maybe even pessimistic that the outcome in the long term will be worth the price we will have paid in treasure, political capital and American lives. No one knows the future, but if Trump loses the midterms, his administration is over. His agenda will be dead, and the next few years will be nothing but hearings, investigations and likely impeachments. If that ushers in a Democratic president in 2028, then we'll be dealing with existential jeopardy as a nation. The Iran war, as necessary and important as it is, has undoubtedly made that perilous future more likely to some degree. We'll have to look back at some point and ask if it was worth it to get a deal - even a "great" deal - with the mullahs. I don't know how it will play out but to pretend there is no reason for skepticism is to ignore a lot of history and a lot of current political realities.

If there is reason for optimism, it is that we have brought together a coalition of states in the Middle East in opposition to Iran that may serve as the basis of a new order that can change the dynamic in that region and focus on peace, economic prosperity and cooperation rather than perpetual war, jihad and terrorism.

I have always been and still am a solid Trump supporter. I would have hoped that my history here would allow me to share different opinions and perspectives without derision and ad hominems.

June 14, 2026, 01:00 PM

parabellum

I didn't call you anything but pessimistic on this issue.

You'll always be welcome here, and any member I say this to, has a chip in the big game.

June 14, 2026, 03:19 PM

nhtagmember

Maybe I missed a few pages but I’m thinking that the deal has been made with a group big currently in control of the country with the IRGC being the wild card. I can’t imagine them ever laying down their arms without their brains being smeared on the wall behind them

So if this is the case what latitude if any do we give this new group in their effort's to overthrow the mullahs and their forces?

June 14, 2026, 04:37 PM

sigmonkey

https://www.israelnationalnews.com

"Pakistani PM announces US-Iran peace deal reached, official signing set for Friday
Jun 15, 2026

Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif announced on Sunday night, "Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon."

He added that the official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland."

June 14, 2026, 04:48 PM

Pipe Smoker

^^^^^
President Trump’s success will greatly annoy the MSM.

His achievement required a great deal of tenacity.

The Art of the Deal.

June 14, 2026, 04:51 PM

ChicagoSigMan

Looking forward to reading the MOU. Things I will be watching:

1. Trump said the Strait is now open and toll-free. Will Iran go along with that? The original ceasefire was conditioned on the complete opening of the Strait. It didn't happen but the ceasefire was still implemented.

2. The cessation of hostilities purportedly applies to Lebanon as well. Will Hezbollah actually stand down? They have never abided by ceasefires in the past.

3. How firm are the commitments on nuclear weapons and uranium? Do we have solid commitments here or an agreement to hold further negotiations in the future?

There are many more important details that need to be clarified, and it will be critical to see the various enforcement mechanisms. These will give us a clue as to how well this agreement will hold up in the post-Trump era. It will be a great thing if this is really the beginning of a new era for the Middle East.

I expect that the oil market will be down big tomorrow (and equities up), which is good for everyone and will give energy prices time to come down and bring PPI/CPI down before the midterms which will be important for Republicans battling to keep control of Congress.

Interesting times for sure.

June 14, 2026, 06:02 PM

Lunasee

Our President signed this deal today, on his Birthday. Congratulations and Happy Birthday Mr. President.

June 14, 2026, 06:03 PM

oddball

https://x.com/CMShehbaz/status...l2066268332832194810

June 14, 2026, 06:05 PM

Lunasee

quote:
Originally posted by Lunasee:
Our President signed this deal today, on his Birthday. Congratulations and Happy Birthday Mr. President.
The medias heads are going to explode

June 14, 2026, 06:08 PM

Pipe Smoker

quote:
Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
<snip>
I expect that the oil market will be down big tomorrow (and equities up)
<snip>

Thanks for that insight.

June 14, 2026, 06:18 PM

12131

quote:
Originally posted by Lunasee:
Our President signed this deal today, on his Birthday. Congratulations and Happy Birthday Mr. President.

Nothing has been signed, yet, by anyone. It's now going to be next Friday. Supposedly.

June 14, 2026, 06:32 PM

goose5

I don't think any agreement signed or otherwise will be honored by the Iranians. I give credit to the Trump administration for trying something different. I don't think its a good idea to allow an theocratic dictatorship to have a nuclear weapon. One that can be described as an eschatology. But, I'm not sure that will really happen. They will go nuclear at some point because they are being helped by China and Russia. As far as the deal, well to paraphrase Nancy Pelosi we'll have to wait and see what's in it.

June 14, 2026, 06:37 PM

darthfuster

Oops. I wrote a post with a trigger word. I’m willing to change it but don’t know how

June 14, 2026, 07:14 PM

chellim1

Cautiously optimistic.

"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor

June 14, 2026, 07:44 PM

tsmccull

They’ll be signing the MOU friday which extends the ceasefire by 60 days and provides that long to finalize any real deal. Strait traffic is to be open again, including for the Iranians although their statement that they and Qatar will “manage” said traffic would seem to run counter to DJT’s promise of unfettered transits. Supposed to start discussing nuclear after friday, but Iran’s new requirement to be paid $12B before doing so runs counter to Trump’s statement of no money changing hands. Israel still seems to be attacking Hezbollah, so that proxy war isn’t settled yet. Lots of deal-like proclamations today, but this looks like it still has a long way to go before real peace is achieved.

June 14, 2026, 08:58 PM

12131

From Fox News, an hour ago. Looks promising, since this is the first time that I can recall the Iranians actually confirmed anything regarding the peace deal.

quote:
Iran Security Council confirms US-Iran MOU finalized, immediate end to war in effect

Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirmed Sunday that Tehran and Washington had finalized a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war after months of negotiations, according to reports.

In a statement, the council said all military operations across multiple fronts, including those in Lebanon, will cease "immediately and permanently" starting Sunday night.

It also said the U.S. naval blockade on Iran will be lifted in full with immediate effect, according to Iran International.

Talks on a comprehensive final agreement will begin only after the other side has implemented its obligations under the framework agreement, the outlet said.

The statement also expressed thanks to Pakistan and Qatar for their mediation efforts.

The deal which is to be signed June 19 will reportedly start 60 days of discussions over Tehran's nuclear program and broader agreement.

Posted by Emma Bussey