quote:

Originally posted by braillediver:
Hezbollah attacked Israel with three unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Lebanon.

Israel responded by bombing a Hezbollah command center in Beirut's Dahieh suburb.

Israel now is awaiting Iran to retaliate with ballistic missile fire against Israel.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/428620

Are you trying to tell me few back and forth between these two is the reason the signing is held up? They've been going at it for a while now. Not any new revelation. And they will still be going at it after the Deal is signed, whenever that is.

Even the discussion of “deal signing” in the last couple of days has stirred up animosities within the regime between the hardliners opposing any deal and others who are more pragmatic and willing to at least consider the possibility. Getting the regime to internally fight itself would be one approach. Since Hezbollah and Israel have now started going at it again, deal making is likely on the back burner until things calm down a bit.

Read 'Going to Tehran', Flynt Leverett & Hillary Mann Leverett copyright 2013.

quote:

Originally posted by 12131:
Iran's nuclear weapon ambition has been set back years. Their miltary has been decimated. So, even if he doesn't do anything with them, it's still a win.

It is amazing certain people cannot or refuse to comprehend this.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/...dkt_nbr=010504kztpe1

Trump Warns Israel and Iran Not to 'Blow' Peace Deal With Military Strikes

President Donald Trump on Sunday urged no further attacks by anyone after Israel's military said it launched strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut, potentially complicating efforts to finalize a deal to end the U.S.-Iran war. Smoke rose over the Lebanese capital, and the Civil Defense said it retrieved three bodies and six wounded people from the rubble.
Iran threatened a military response. Trump reacted on social media: “We are very close to a Deal that will bring peace to the region,” and “Let’s not blow it!”

The deal in its current form is a deep disappointment to Israel's government, which has been sidelined in negotiations led by Pakistan and others. The last time Israel struck the Beirut suburbs a week ago, it set off the most serious escalation of fighting between Iran and Israel since the tenuous ceasefire took hold April 7.

Trump, who had said the deal could be signed Sunday, has pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop hitting Lebanon hard while a deal is near, but the prime minister has defied him.

Netanyahu's office said the strikes were in response to Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel. Israel’s military said Hezbollah launched three projectiles, releasing footage where an audible boom was followed by rising smoke. There was no immediate comment from the Iranian-backed Hezbollah.

“Israel will not tolerate firing into its territory,” Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a statement. The military later said it was preparing for potential incoming fire in the coming hours.

An Associated Press photographer at the scene in Beirut said a five-story apartment building with shops on the ground floor was struck. The two lowest floors were the most heavily damaged. Residents of the southern suburbs, many of whom had returned home after weeks of relative calm, could be seen fleeing.

Hezbollah fired missiles into Israel on March 2, two days after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, sparking war in the Middle East. Israeli troops have since pushed their invasion of Lebanon deeper than at any point in over a quarter century.

Iran wants a ceasefire deal to include the fighting in Lebanon.

Iran’s parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a lead negotiator for Tehran, warned the U.S. on X after Israel's strikes that “if you lack the will and ability to fulfill your commitments, speaking of continuing the path is not possible."

“Without a doubt, these crimes will not go unanswered,” said Gen. Mohammad Jafar Asadi, deputy commander of Iran’s Joint Command Headquarters, the official Mizan news agency reported.

Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran on Sunday to finalize the agreement, according to two regional officials.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media, expressed cautious optimism that the U.S. and Iran were finally approaching a deal that could halt hostilities that have killed thousands of people and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, whose closure has thrown world markets into disarray.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Saturday the deal would be signed Sunday, while Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said it could happen in the coming days. Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would open immediately after the signing.

The deal is expected to be signed electronically, without an in-person ceremony, though it’s unclear when or how the signing will take place.

Iran's government warned that any division at home over the deal weakens its negotiating position, and those criticizing negotiators are taking aim at a national decision. Iranians must recognize that no war lasts forever, spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told the state-run IRNA news agency.

The deal does not solve the thorniest issues between the U.S. and Iran, including Iran’s nuclear program or its billions of dollars in frozen funds, but offers a 60-day framework for technical discussions on those issues, according to Pakistani and regional officials familiar with the ongoing negotiations. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

The officials described Pakistan’s effort leading the negotiations, struggling for months to keep both sides from walking out on multiple occasions.

Under the deal being discussed, U.S. and Israel appear to have fallen short of their original goals of destroying Iran’s missile and nuclear programs and ending its support for armed proxies in the region. It is not clear how the deal will address these issues, or if they will be part of the final agreement.

Iran’s nuclear program and highly enriched uranium have long been at the center of tensions with the U.S. and Israel and an international source of concern. Trump on social media asserted Saturday that “when all is calm,” the U.S. would go in and “downblend and destroy” the enriched uranium in Iran or in the U.S.

Iran has 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium that is enriched up to 60% purity, a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Iran has long maintained its nuclear program is peaceful and has not publicly committed to giving up the enriched uranium, which is believed to be buried under three nuclear sites that were badly damaged by U.S. strikes last year.

Critics in Trump’s Republican Party, struggling with an unpopular war ahead of the midterm elections, have criticized the emerging deal. Some said it did not improve on the terms of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that Trump withdrew the U.S. from during his first term and which he still describes as “bad.”

Meanwhile, Trump was expected to discuss demining the Strait of Hormuz during the Group of Seven summit that starts Monday.

Our media will now have to attack this deal with every fiber of their being. They absolutely cannot let Trump have this win. Yes, they will just make shit up if that is required. Expect reports of pallets of cash to the Iranians and general tales of incompetence.

quote:

Originally posted by heydrich:
If me asking this question makes me a villain on the site, so be it!

Let's not get carried away. You're not the only one here taking the position you have. And it's not that you are asking. It's how you asked:

quote:

Originally posted by heydrich:
So……once Iran gets full backing from China and Russia, where does he think this “deal” will go?

Those quotation marks say it all.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
And here's another one who seems to always be pessimistic on this issue. ChicagoSigMan

quote:

And yet it seems that’s exactly what’s happening with Trump.

No, it is not, and if you want to take the position that it is, you're not worth taking seriously on this conflict.

You and this reporter must think Donald Trump is a fool.

I do not think Trump is a fool. I think there is no one I'd rather have in the Oval Office at this moment, but yes, I am skeptical that a diplomatic conclusion that actually solves the bigger issues is possible. I was going to write a lengthy explanation and defense of my position, but I'm not out to change anyone's mind. Obviously, it's impossible to make a definitive judgment until the final text of a signed deal is made public so we can see exactly what was agreed to and what enforcement mechanisms are in place, but yes, I am skeptical and maybe even pessimistic that the outcome in the long term will be worth the price we will have paid in treasure, political capital and American lives. No one knows the future, but if Trump loses the midterms, his administration is over. His agenda will be dead, and the next few years will be nothing but hearings, investigations and likely impeachments. If that ushers in a Democratic president in 2028, then we'll be dealing with existential jeopardy as a nation. The Iran war, as necessary and important as it is, has undoubtedly made that perilous future more likely to some degree. We'll have to look back at some point and ask if it was worth it to get a deal - even a "great" deal - with the mullahs. I don't know how it will play out but to pretend there is no reason for skepticism is to ignore a lot of history and a lot of current political realities.

If there is reason for optimism, it is that we have brought together a coalition of states in the Middle East in opposition to Iran that may serve as the basis of a new order that can change the dynamic in that region and focus on peace, economic prosperity and cooperation rather than perpetual war, jihad and terrorism.

I have always been and still am a solid Trump supporter. I would have hoped that my history here would allow me to share different opinions and perspectives without derision and ad hominems.

I didn't call you anything but pessimistic on this issue.

You'll always be welcome here, and any member I say this to, has a chip in the big game.

Maybe I missed a few pages but I’m thinking that the deal has been made with a group big currently in control of the country with the IRGC being the wild card. I can’t imagine them ever laying down their arms without their brains being smeared on the wall behind them

So if this is the case what latitude if any do we give this new group in their effort's to overthrow the mullahs and their forces?

https://www.israelnationalnews.com


"Pakistani PM announces US-Iran peace deal reached, official signing set for Friday
Jun 15, 2026

Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif announced on Sunday night, "Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon."

He added that the official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland."

^^^^^
President Trump’s success will greatly annoy the MSM.

His achievement required a great deal of tenacity.

The Art of the Deal.

Looking forward to reading the MOU. Things I will be watching:

1. Trump said the Strait is now open and toll-free. Will Iran go along with that? The original ceasefire was conditioned on the complete opening of the Strait. It didn't happen but the ceasefire was still implemented.

2. The cessation of hostilities purportedly applies to Lebanon as well. Will Hezbollah actually stand down? They have never abided by ceasefires in the past.

3. How firm are the commitments on nuclear weapons and uranium? Do we have solid commitments here or an agreement to hold further negotiations in the future?

There are many more important details that need to be clarified, and it will be critical to see the various enforcement mechanisms. These will give us a clue as to how well this agreement will hold up in the post-Trump era. It will be a great thing if this is really the beginning of a new era for the Middle East.

I expect that the oil market will be down big tomorrow (and equities up), which is good for everyone and will give energy prices time to come down and bring PPI/CPI down before the midterms which will be important for Republicans battling to keep control of Congress.

Interesting times for sure.

Our President signed this deal today, on his Birthday. Congratulations and Happy Birthday Mr. President.

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
<snip>
I expect that the oil market will be down big tomorrow (and equities up)
<snip>

Thanks for that insight.

quote:

Originally posted by Lunasee:
Our President signed this deal today, on his Birthday. Congratulations and Happy Birthday Mr. President.

Nothing has been signed, yet, by anyone. It's now going to be next Friday. Supposedly.

I don't think any agreement signed or otherwise will be honored by the Iranians. I give credit to the Trump administration for trying something different. I don't think its a good idea to allow an theocratic dictatorship to have a nuclear weapon. One that can be described as an eschatology. But, I'm not sure that will really happen. They will go nuclear at some point because they are being helped by China and Russia. As far as the deal, well to paraphrase Nancy Pelosi we'll have to wait and see what's in it.

Oops. I wrote a post with a trigger word. I’m willing to change it but don’t know how