I love this line

Democratic strategist Dave “Mudcat” Saunders believes Donald Trump will beat Hillary Clinton like a “baby seal,”



http://dailycaller.com/2016/04...ry-like-a-baby-seal/

CBS: Yes, Donald Trump can beat Hillary Clinton

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ye...eat-hillary-clinton/

How would Donald Trump fare in a general election against Hillary Clinton? The conventional wisdom is that he wouldn't stand a chance. The GOP is divided. His campaign, despite a recent spate of landslide primary wins, appears to have its own civil war going on. His favorability numbers are at historic lows for a nominee.

The case against Trump's electability is strong. But it is also perhaps overstated. The Manhattan billionaire does have a narrow path to the White House. In fact, he may be the GOP's most electable option at this point, at least among the candidates who are actually still running for the job.

John Kasich argues he's the only guy who can beat Clinton, an idea mostly predicated on his performance in head-to-head election polls. But head-to-head polls this far out, historically speaking, are not all that predictive, and Kasich has struggled to turn his on-paper attractiveness into actual votes at the ballot box.

Ted Cruz, meanwhile, would likely be the most right-wing nominee since Barry Goldwater. His act appears to have worn thin among even the Republican grassroots, his natural constituency. Cruz might somehow still manage to pull the nomination away from Trump, but there's approximately zero reason to believe he can win over the swing voters who typically decide presidential contests.

So back to Trump, who still has a few things going for him. His general election strategy, such as it is, seems to be predicated on two strategies: pivot left as far as possible and launch a scorched earth campaign against Clinton.

Let's look at these one at a time. On the face of it, insulting your way to the presidency seems like a stupid, unworkable idea. Then again, Clinton has shown herself vulnerable to attacks on her character, not to mention her husband's.

The reaction to Rosario Dawson's in-passing reference to Monica Lewinsky over the weekend shows how sensitive the Clinton camp is to such things. Lewinsky is a sympathetic figure wrapped up in a sympathetic cause; Dawson only said that she agrees with her anti-bullying efforts. And yet still there were calls for Dawson to get off the trail for Bernie Sanders, that she had somehow crossed a line just by mouthing the word "Monica."

What happens when Trump, after Hillary inevitably accuses him of sexism, says that Bill is a rapist, a serial assaulter of women, and that she is his enabler? What happens when he incorporates this into his stump speech? The upside, if you can call it that, to Trump's refusal to act "presidential" is that he is the only candidate who will go that far. Trump, and Trump alone, is the only candidate who would not only resurrect all the Clinton sex scandals, but make them a centerpiece of his campaign.

It could backfire, sure. But the fact is we have no idea how Trump dredging up all this will play, particularly among the younger voters Hillary will be somewhat dependent on. We don't know how Americans who've grown up marinating in discussions of rape culture, who watched the Cosby and Catholic and Dr. Luke scandals unfold, would respond to the renewed visibility of someone like Juanita Broaddrick.

And that's just the sex stuff. The Clintons are no strangers to scandals financial and otherwise, and while bringing up all that baggage, in some cases discredited, would seem too-low for a normal candidate, Trump will almost certainly embrace all of it.

Hillary's weak points aside, Trump also has one main advantage, which is that he'd be probably the most moderate nominee in decades. Now, Trump is not normally what we think of when we think of moderates - "reactionary moderate" is perhaps the best term to describe him. But border walls and Muslim bans aside, Trump really most closely resembles an old-school northeastern centrist Republican.

Trump likes the welfare state. He's made protecting entitlements central to his pitch. It's safe to say that he's likely, at heart, socially liberal -- the story of how he became anti-abortion, for example, doesn't make a great deal of sense. (That story, in brief: friends of his debated having an abortion. They did not. The kid turned out to be "a winner." When pressed if he would have stayed pro-abortion if the kid was a loser, Trump once replied "probably not.")

He clearly doesn't like these "Bathroom Bills" popping up in red states; bad for business, and that's always Trump's bottom line. Regardless of what he says in the lead-up to next week's Indiana primary, that probably goes for RFRAs as well. And given the milieu he's always existed in, it's hard to believe he really opposes gay marriage, either.

Trump has had the benefit of never really fleshing out what he believes about specific policies; nearly a year into his campaign, we still don't know what he'd replace Obamacare with. He is, as his longtime advisor Roger Stone says, a "big picture" guy: pro-business, pro-military, pro-America. The rest is all open to negotiation, to making the best deal.

And, as Jim Antle notes over at The Washington Examiner, that puts him pretty squarely into the vast middle of the American electorate. "The New American Center", as NBC News recently called it, is patriotic. It thinks America is the best country in the world. But it hates our political system and our elites. It doesn't like immigration or Affirmative Action or other programs explicitly designed to help minorities.

It is, in other words, Trump's natural base, at least on paper. Now, there are still plenty of reasons why someone who agrees with Trump on a whole mess of issues might still be unwilling to vote for him. But it's a mistake to assume that the man doesn't have a natural constituency outside the GOP.

There are a lot of "ifs" in all this. Trump can alienate his own base if he triangulates too much between now and Election Day. His seeming inability to set up any kind of nationwide infrastructure might alone doom him in a race with Clinton. Voters just might decide that they really do hate the guy and will do anything from seeing him become president. There are endless variables here, and Clinton should be considered the odds-on favorite for the presidency.

But that doesn't mean Trump doesn't have a chance. He does.

Perhaps I am too young, or just did not pay attention, but was there ever a time in history when the Republican leaders were so dead set against the leading vote getter in the Republican primary, as they are now?

quote:

Originally posted by Himiko:
Perhaps I am too young, or just did not pay attention, but was there ever a time in history when the Republican leaders were so dead set against the leading vote getter in the Republican primary, as they are now?

Not in my lifetime. They were ALL on the take.

quote:

Originally posted by Himiko:
Perhaps I am too young, or just did not pay attention, but was there ever a time in history when the Republican leaders were so dead set against the leading vote getter in the Republican primary, as they are now?

Trump was defending Mitch McConnell yesterday and was heartily endorsed by Boehner today. Chris Christie, Scott Brown, Rick Scott, Sarah Palin, Jeff Sessions and Ben Carson are campaigning for him. Which leaders are you referring to?

quote:

Originally posted by Bigboreshooter:
CBS: Yes, Donald Trump can beat Hillary Clinton

...

That article didn't exactly make me feel warm and fuzzy about Trump.

quote:

Originally posted by BamaJeepster:

quote:

Originally posted by Himiko:
Perhaps I am too young, or just did not pay attention, but was there ever a time in history when the Republican leaders were so dead set against the leading vote getter in the Republican primary, as they are now?

Trump was defending Mitch McConnell yesterday and was heartily endorsed by Boehner today. Chris Christie, Scott Brown, Rick Scott, Sarah Palin, Jeff Sessions and Ben Carson are campaigning for him. Which leaders are you referring to?

I don't know who Himiko was thinking of, but I would say: Karl Rove, Reince Preibus, all the Bushes, Mitt Romney, Bob Dole, John McCain, Lindsey Graham and Orin Hatch come immediately to mind. That is not a comprehensive list, but I think it's fair to generalize: most of the big wigs in the Republican establishment.

quote:

Originally posted by BamaJeepster:

quote:

Originally posted by Himiko:
Perhaps I am too young, or just did not pay attention, but was there ever a time in history when the Republican leaders were so dead set against the leading vote getter in the Republican primary, as they are now?

Trump was defending Mitch McConnell yesterday and was heartily endorsed by Boehner today. Chris Christie, Scott Brown, Rick Scott, Sarah Palin, Jeff Sessions and Ben Carson are campaigning for him. Which leaders are you referring to?

I don't think I'd consider, "I'd rather vote for him than Lucifer" as an endorsement.

Carson: Polls Showing Hillary Beating Trump Are 'Bunch of Garbage'

Ben Carson said on Outnumbered today that the head-to-head polls showing Hillary Clinton far ahead of Donald Trump are "a bunch of garbage."

Many in the Republican Party have argued that nominating Trump would lead to sure defeat in November against Clinton.

But Carson, who has endorsed Trump, downplayed the accuracy of such polls.

"They could get whatever answer they want by asking who they want and asking the question a certain way, and they try to manipulate people with all of these polls," said Carson.

Julie Roginsky pushed back on Carson, saying that a number of different "statistical" polls are showing the same thing.

"Every single poll is not skewed, Doctor," she said.

Carson argued that the excitement and huge crowds at Trump's rallies give him confidence that the billionaire can defeat the former First Lady.

The RealClearPolitics average of the most recent polls finds Clinton ahead of Trump by 8.5 points.

Trump touted a new poll yesterday from George Washington University that showed Clinton ahead of him by just three points.

Trump has said repeatedly that he'll defeat Clinton in a general election, arguing that "I haven't even started on her yet."

Watch the full discussion above as Carson and the hosts also dissected Clinton's claim that Trump is out of touch with ordinary Americans.

The best thing about Boehner is that's he's finally retired.

Good riddance.

quote:

Originally posted by Dallas239:

quote:

Originally posted by BamaJeepster:

quote:

Originally posted by Himiko:
Perhaps I am too young, or just did not pay attention, but was there ever a time in history when the Republican leaders were so dead set against the leading vote getter in the Republican primary, as they are now?

Trump was defending Mitch McConnell yesterday and was heartily endorsed by Boehner today. Chris Christie, Scott Brown, Rick Scott, Sarah Palin, Jeff Sessions and Ben Carson are campaigning for him. Which leaders are you referring to?

I don't think I'd consider, "I'd rather vote for him than Lucifer" as an endorsement.

http://www.stanforddaily.com/2...tion-time-in-office/

quote:

Boehner described other Republican candidates as friends. In particular, he said he has played golf with Donald Trump for years and that they were “texting buddies.”

Boehner for the most part accepted Trump as the presumptive Republican nominee, though he did express his surprise at the candidate’s success. While he did not praise Trump’s policies, the former Speaker did say he would vote for Trump in the general election if he becomes the Republican nominee. He said he would not, however, vote for Cruz.

Trump has been an insider/donor for years. The establishment despise Cruz because he is a conservative and stands for his beliefs. The only reservation they have with Trump is that they can't control him - but being a northeastern liberal they feel like he won't do as much damage to the progressive cause in the long run.

The reality is that Trump is your Republican nominee and Hillary is your Democrat nominee. The race is over and that's the field unless you count Gary Johnson as well.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by Bigboreshooter:
CBS: Yes, Donald Trump can beat Hillary Clinton

...

That article didn't exactly make me feel warm and fuzzy about Trump.

Really? I can't imagine why?

quote:

Originally posted by Bigboreshooter:
CBS: Yes, Donald Trump can beat Hillary Clinton

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ye...eat-hillary-clinton/

......

Hillary's weak points aside, Trump also has one main advantage, which is that he'd be probably the most moderate nominee in decades. Now, Trump is not normally what we think of when we think of moderates - "reactionary moderate" is perhaps the best term to describe him. But border walls and Muslim bans aside, Trump really most closely resembles an old-school northeastern centrist Republican.

Trump likes the welfare state. He's made protecting entitlements central to his pitch. It's safe to say that he's likely, at heart, socially liberal -- the story of how he became anti-abortion, for example, doesn't make a great deal of sense. (That story, in brief: friends of his debated having an abortion. They did not. The kid turned out to be "a winner." When pressed if he would have stayed pro-abortion if the kid was a loser, Trump once replied "probably not.")

.....

Trump has had the benefit of never really fleshing out what he believes about specific policies; nearly a year into his campaign, we still don't know what he'd replace Obamacare with. He is, as his longtime advisor Roger Stone says, a "big picture" guy: pro-business, pro-military, pro-America. The rest is all open to negotiation, to making the best deal.

.....

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
He's nothing but another Goddamned politician. I don't care how good his words make you feel. He is not to be trusted, and if you can't see it by now, it's because you've pinned all your hopes on the guy and you don't want to see it.

Just another politician. No different, no matter what he says. His actions tell the tale.

Sigh, sad, but very true. I have long felt that one had to give both Cruz and Bernie credit for being consistent in their beliefs. Bernie of course is a loon, but he appears to honestly believe the lunacy he preaches. Ted, on the other hand, had the right answer: limited government, a return to the constitution. Sadly, Ted is looking more and more like the wrong guy with the right message. Bummer.

quote:

Donald Trump has never held political office and that's why he is running away with this. Americans are fed up with the same old same old and they're not buying the lies any longer.

Yeah, all true. Donald Trump scares the hell out of me as he reminds me of Obamacare, "We have to vote him into office to see what we get." That said, he appears to love our country and mean well, which beats the shit out of 99.9% of politicians these days it seems.

I am reminded of the post where someone said Donald Trump was like playing Russian Roulette with three live rounds in the cylinder. Whoever it was said that Hillary was like playing with six live rounds in the cylinder. I disagreed - that bitch is like playing with eight rounds in the cylinder.

I am saddened and disappointed by this primary. I hope it will be over soon and we can move past it to elect someone who does not have (D) after their name.

Hehe, that's about right. Except I'd say that Miss Piggy is a much more respectable lady than Hillary

quote:

Originally posted by BamaJeepster:
Trump has been an insider/donor for years. The establishment despise Cruz because he is a conservative and stands for his beliefs. The only reservation they have with Trump is that they can't control him - but being a northeastern liberal they feel like he won't do as much damage to the progressive cause in the long run.

Trump has built an empire by working the system to his advantage; thus acquiring the kind of hands on experience needed to restructure American policy to promote prosperity. In a system with two opposing political parties it will takes a cooperative of ideologies to enact lasting change that won't be undone with the next election cycle. Labeling a life long capitalist who actually exercises his right to keep and bare arms a "liberal progressive" is intellectually dishonest. The fact that Cruz can litigate a case in a court of law has no bearing on his ability to negotiate an agenda through a three branch system of government whose ratiocination is as encompassing as it's cultural diversity.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
Except I'd say that Miss Piggy is a much more respectable lady than Hillary

Exactly! Why does Miss Piggy deserve to be insulted.

With varying enthusiasm, GOP elites are accepting Trump as their nominee

https://www.washingtonpost.com...de3695b0e_story.html

Throughout the Republican Party, from New Hampshire to Florida to California, many leaders, operatives, donors and activists arrived this week at the conclusion they had been hoping to thwart or at least delay: Donald Trump will be their presidential nominee.

An aura of inevitability is now forming around the controversial mogul. Trump smothered his opponents in six straight primaries in the Northeast and vacuumed up more delegates than even the most generous predictions foresaw.

“The lion’s share of Republicans want the process settled,” said Mike Dennehy, a veteran New ­Hampshire-based party strategist. “There’s anxiety setting in about the process, and that’s what people are tired of. They just want it done, they want the fighting to stop, and they want a general-election campaign to begin in a meaningful way.”


...

This guy says 1237 doesn't even matter:



He's a delegate and on the rules committee.

"Even if Trump reaches the magic number of 1,237 the media and RNC are touting, that does not mean Trump is automatically the nominee," Haugland said. "The votes earned during the primary process are only estimates and are not legal convention votes. The only official votes to nominate a candidate are those that are cast from the convention floor."

A variety of memes are cracking me up today...