quote:

Originally posted by jljones:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

Do you have an explanation for this inconsistency?

Because the infection rate is higher than reported, ...

Wait... what?

Previously the complaint was we couldn't trust anything reported out of China, now we can trust what's reported out of China, but not the others?

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:
... but people aren’t dying. Local medical are speculating ...

Yes, speculating. As opposed to hard numbers of those known to be infected and known deaths.

Even then: Let us assume only one-in-ten infected are recorded for the stats I cited: That's still a CFR of 0.24% to 0.37% - 600 to 925 times that in Doc H's post. Still a significant discrepancy.

I think I know why you don’t see anyone here panicking.

Until you realize the “hard numbers” are false, you’ll continue to act this way. 34 more times likely.

If the CFR is 0.0004%, and 827 people have died in Italy, then the number of cases in Italy must be about:

827 / (0.0004 / 100) = 206,750,000

The entire population of Italy is about 60 million, so that would require every single person in Italy having been infected almost three and a half times.

You guys are giving me a headache.

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:
I think I know why you don’t see anyone here panicking.

Now I'm confused. My argument of a few posts back was nobody here was panicking. I've argued that several times. So what point are you trying to make with this statement?

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:
Until you realize the “hard numbers” are false, you’ll continue to act this way.

On what evidence do you base your assertion that the hard numbers are false? Because I can point you to the results of several analyses conducted by people who actually know something about epidemiology and statistical analysis to suggest they're not.

Or is it simply that you're willing to accept China's numbers because they agree with your assumptions, but not the numbers of WHO and the CDC because they don't? Because it sure looks like that's what you're doing.

And what do you mean by "act this way?" Citing evidence for my positions rather than arguing from vague assumptions? Shame on me!

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
You guys are giving me a headache.

Sorry, boss I'll stop if you want.

France has announced that all Universities, schools, and day cares will be closed starting Monday.

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

Do you have an explanation for this inconsistency?

Because the infection rate is higher than reported, ...

Wait... what?

Previously the complaint was we couldn't trust anything reported out of China, now we can trust what's reported out of China, but not the others?

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:
... but people aren’t dying. Local medical are speculating ...

Yes, speculating. As opposed to hard numbers of those known to be infected and known deaths.

Even then: Let us assume only one-in-ten infected are recorded for the stats I cited: That's still a CFR of 0.24% to 0.37% - 600 to 925 times that in Doc H's post. Still a significant discrepancy.

I think I know why you don’t see anyone here panicking.

Until you realize the “hard numbers” are false, you’ll continue to act this way. 34 more times likely.

The post was to emphasize that we don't have a clue how many people are actually infected. Particularly in China. That number makes a critical difference in calculating CFR. We'll know the real numbers - perhaps - months or years after this pandemic, and can then do an accurate "post-mortem," as it were. Maybe. We still don't have an extremely precise idea of the statistics for the 1918 pandemic, but likely partly because of the lack of sophisticated record-keeping. Meantime, you can't have it both ways. You can't have an incredibly fast-moving, infective organism, that spreads arithmetically, and have .005% of the close-quarters population of China infected after 6 months (assuming it was unknown and in the population months prior to the December announcement, which it probably was). So there's that.

I think Ohio has 4 or 5 reported cases? Two are supposedly cleared.

But the gov’nor just announced he will closes schools for three weeks starting Monday.

Overreacting a bit here in Ohio.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
France has announced that all Universities, schools, and day cares will be closed starting Monday.

It's a virus, not ze Germans. Tell them to put the white flags away.

Our dipshit dem governor just closed all our county schools for two weeks. As far as I know, there have been no reported cases. WTF!

My God...

All of you alarmist should step away from the computer as you may catch this via the internet wires.

This is not a healthy debate, it's panic vs. rational thought.

Some people will get this and die, others will not. Shit happens. It's what has been happening for the entirety of the planet's history.

If you are old or medically compromised, then stay inside and isolate yourselves, but don't add to the freakin panic and irrational thought.

Yes, some members may come down with this and live, others may die. I will mourn those who do and the families they leave behind.

Respectfully...

quote:

Originally posted by MRMATT:
Our dipshit dem governor just closed all our county schools for two weeks. As far as I know, there have been no reported cases. WTF!

Not just the schools, this guy is ordering ALL NON ESSENTIAL facilities to close as of this Friday.

Movie theaters, concert venues, etc. Only food, fuel and medical facilities are to remain open.

I have no idea how this works with my employer, I'm in Montgomery county, PA here at work. Are we forced to close down too until March 30? How does that work?

I told my wife she better try and get her food shopping done today instead of Friday-Saturday as it's going to be pure chaos.

These Democrat governors must be meeting and strategizing on how to fuck Trump over and piss his voting base off, I swear to God!

MLB postpones start 2 weeks

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:
The post was to emphasize that we don't have a clue how many people are actually infected. Particularly in China. That number makes a critical difference in calculating CFR.

Ok. Thanks. That's the point I suspected you were making, but I wanted to make no assumptions.

That's why I qualify my statements regarding R0 and CFR with "believed," "suggests," and other such qualifiers.

I believe all the current analyses I've read contain similar qualifying language.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
You guys are giving me a headache.

Watch for the fever.

quote:

Originally posted by Rightwire:
USA Hockey cancelled all events including States and Nationals. ACHA hockey cancelled the National Tournament. NHL just postponed the season.

I talked to a nurse today who advised this is highly contagious. Breathing exhaled air from an infected person can transmit it. Any contact with that with air that then contacts eyes, nose, mouth can transmit the virus.

From previous post:

Is coronavirus airborne like measles?

The jury is out. As of Thusday, it did not appear to be an airborne virus in the same vein as measles or chickenpox, said Luis Ostrosky, professor and vice chairman of internal medicine at McGovern Medical School in Houston, Texas.

“It’s a virus that travels in droplets. This is very good news. With an airborne virus, one person could infect the whole room.”

Now for the bad news. Airborne transmission is “plausible,” according to a study — that has not been peer reviewed — posted online this week from scientists at Princeton University, the University of California, Los Angeles and the National Institutes of Health posted online Wednesday concluded that the virus could remain airborne for “up to 3 hours post aerosolization.”

quote:

Originally posted by Chowser:
I think Ohio has 4 or 5 reported cases? Two are supposedly cleared.

But the gov’nor just announced he will closes schools for three weeks starting Monday.

Overreacting a bit here in Ohio.

I don't think these guys have a clue about the economic impact of all this. Or maybe I don't, I ope I'm wrong.

There's a common sense factor that hasn't been mentioned here. It originally came from Thomas Sowell as he applied it to people and their income potential. Its that people aren't caste into an income level and they remain there from birth until death. Simple concept, and they don't.

Trying to factor out our risk as it was applied to others just doesn't work here. The comparison groups are too large and they try to apply it across the board. For example, my mother is 99 and 5 months old. Today in fact. But she's at a large nursing home/extended care facility, or whatever. Does her survival remain equal to the old women around the bend who live on their own? How many of them can seek and receive medical care at the first sign of any trouble. Most don't drive, thank God.

So are the chances the same for someone being seen and monitored multiple times a day as the opposite. Or even me, who's ancient but not quite that old? I'd have to go and sit in a waiting room (aptly named) at my doctors with a whole bunch of other, probably infected folks? Many of us prefer to take our chances rather than spend an hour or two among the sick or dying.

So back to Sowell. He opines that over our lives we cross into all the different income levels. I'd suggest that not everyone does that, buy many do. The smarter ones particularly. Just saying the disease strikes the elderly harder is probably true, but only if you lump us all together. The ones who don't venture out to crowded disco's and what not along with the ones that do, or who sleep on the sidewalks under an flattened cardboard box.

The important thing being that we can change our risks by what we do and how we live our lives. I kind of liked reading the numbers from South Korea. Sure, its over crowded, but I assume it has 1st world health care and for the most part, its adopted similar eating and other habits. OK, they do eat dogs so maybe I need to back away from that assumption. But at least not bats.

I'm going to guess we'll learn a lot from this disease experience. I personally prefer those who bathe daily. Surely if they're not using toilet paper.

quote:

Originally posted by midwest guy:
MLB postpones start 2 weeks

Dang, I was hoping for 2 years!

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:
The post was to emphasize that we don't have a clue how many people are actually infected. Particularly in China. That number makes a critical difference in calculating CFR.

But isn't that also the case with the flu?
How many people get the flu but never seek medical attention or get tested? Many just suffer at home for a few days. So we don't really know the denominator there either.
We can't really compare one CFR to another CFR if we aren't sure about how many have been infected by either.

So we cant watch sports, cant go outside, cant attend public events, etc etc. I guess were suppose to just sit inside and watch cable news all day?....
Yeah the media has this all figured out.

^^^^^ Check back in 9-10 months to see if there is a baby spike.