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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2) Login/Join 
Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie
Picture of Balzé Halzé
posted Hide Post
France has announced that all Universities, schools, and day cares will be closed starting Monday.


~Alan

Acta Non Verba
NRA Life Member (Patron)
God, Family, Guns, Country

Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan

 
Posts: 31166 | Location: Elv. 7,000 feet, Utah | Registered: October 29, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Something wild
is loose
Picture of Doc H.
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by jljones:
quote:
Originally posted by ensigmatic:
quote:
Originally posted by jljones:
quote:
Originally posted by ensigmatic:

Do you have an explanation for this inconsistency?

Because the infection rate is higher than reported, ...

Wait... what?

Previously the complaint was we couldn't trust anything reported out of China, now we can trust what's reported out of China, but not the others?

quote:
Originally posted by jljones:
... but people aren’t dying. Local medical are speculating ...

Yes, speculating. As opposed to hard numbers of those known to be infected and known deaths.

Even then: Let us assume only one-in-ten infected are recorded for the stats I cited: That's still a CFR of 0.24% to 0.37% - 600 to 925 times that in Doc H's post. Still a significant discrepancy.


I think I know why you don’t see anyone here panicking.

Until you realize the “hard numbers” are false, you’ll continue to act this way. 34 more times likely.


The post was to emphasize that we don't have a clue how many people are actually infected. Particularly in China. That number makes a critical difference in calculating CFR. We'll know the real numbers - perhaps - months or years after this pandemic, and can then do an accurate "post-mortem," as it were. Maybe. We still don't have an extremely precise idea of the statistics for the 1918 pandemic, but likely partly because of the lack of sophisticated record-keeping. Meantime, you can't have it both ways. You can't have an incredibly fast-moving, infective organism, that spreads arithmetically, and have .005% of the close-quarters population of China infected after 6 months (assuming it was unknown and in the population months prior to the December announcement, which it probably was). So there's that.



"And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day"
 
Posts: 2746 | Location: The Shire | Registered: October 22, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
For real?
Picture of Chowser
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I think Ohio has 4 or 5 reported cases? Two are supposedly cleared.

But the gov’nor just announced he will closes schools for three weeks starting Monday.

Overreacting a bit here in Ohio.



Not minority enough!
 
Posts: 8244 | Location: Cleveland, OH | Registered: August 09, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Still finding my way
Picture of Ryanp225
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quote:
Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
France has announced that all Universities, schools, and day cares will be closed starting Monday.

It's a virus, not ze Germans. Tell them to put the white flags away.
 
Posts: 10851 | Registered: January 04, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fool for the City
Picture of MRMATT
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Our dipshit dem governor just closed all our county schools for two weeks. As far as I know, there have been no reported cases. WTF!


_____________________________
"A free people ought not only to be armed and disciplined but they should have sufficient arms and ammunition to maintain a status of independence from any who might attempt to abuse them, which would include their own government." George Washington.
 
Posts: 5332 | Location: Pottstown, PA | Registered: April 26, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
My God...

All of you alarmist should step away from the computer as you may catch this via the internet wires.

This is not a healthy debate, it's panic vs. rational thought.

Some people will get this and die, others will not. Shit happens. It's what has been happening for the entirety of the planet's history.

If you are old or medically compromised, then stay inside and isolate yourselves, but don't add to the freakin panic and irrational thought.

Yes, some members may come down with this and live, others may die. I will mourn those who do and the families they leave behind.

Respectfully...


The "Boz"
 
Posts: 1555 | Location: Central Ohio, USA | Registered: May 29, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Get my pies
outta the oven!

Picture of PASig
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quote:
Originally posted by MRMATT:
Our dipshit dem governor just closed all our county schools for two weeks. As far as I know, there have been no reported cases. WTF!


Not just the schools, this guy is ordering ALL NON ESSENTIAL facilities to close as of this Friday.

Movie theaters, concert venues, etc. Only food, fuel and medical facilities are to remain open.

I have no idea how this works with my employer, I'm in Montgomery county, PA here at work. Are we forced to close down too until March 30? How does that work?

I told my wife she better try and get her food shopping done today instead of Friday-Saturday as it's going to be pure chaos.

These Democrat governors must be meeting and strategizing on how to fuck Trump over and piss his voting base off, I swear to God!


 
Posts: 35154 | Location: Pennsylvania | Registered: November 12, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
MLB postpones start 2 weeks
 
Posts: 2714 | Registered: March 22, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Nullus Anxietas
Picture of ensigmatic
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Doc H.:
The post was to emphasize that we don't have a clue how many people are actually infected. Particularly in China. That number makes a critical difference in calculating CFR.

Ok. Thanks. That's the point I suspected you were making, but I wanted to make no assumptions.

That's why I qualify my statements regarding R0 and CFR with "believed," "suggests," and other such qualifiers.

I believe all the current analyses I've read contain similar qualifying language.



"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
 
Posts: 26031 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of Krazeehorse
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quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
You guys are giving me a headache.

Watch for the fever.


_____________________

Be careful what you tolerate. You are teaching people how to treat you.
 
Posts: 5758 | Location: Ohio | Registered: December 27, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Thank you
Very little
Picture of HRK
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quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire:
USA Hockey cancelled all events including States and Nationals. ACHA hockey cancelled the National Tournament. NHL just postponed the season.

I talked to a nurse today who advised this is highly contagious. Breathing exhaled air from an infected person can transmit it. Any contact with that with air that then contacts eyes, nose, mouth can transmit the virus.


From previous post:

Is coronavirus airborne like measles?

The jury is out. As of Thusday, it did not appear to be an airborne virus in the same vein as measles or chickenpox, said Luis Ostrosky, professor and vice chairman of internal medicine at McGovern Medical School in Houston, Texas.

“It’s a virus that travels in droplets. This is very good news. With an airborne virus, one person could infect the whole room.”

Now for the bad news. Airborne transmission is “plausible,” according to a study — that has not been peer reviewed — posted online this week from scientists at Princeton University, the University of California, Los Angeles and the National Institutes of Health posted online Wednesday concluded that the virus could remain airborne for “up to 3 hours post aerosolization.”
 
Posts: 24664 | Location: Gunshine State | Registered: November 07, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of Krazeehorse
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Chowser:
I think Ohio has 4 or 5 reported cases? Two are supposedly cleared.

But the gov’nor just announced he will closes schools for three weeks starting Monday.

Overreacting a bit here in Ohio.


I don't think these guys have a clue about the economic impact of all this. Or maybe I don't, I ope I'm wrong.


_____________________

Be careful what you tolerate. You are teaching people how to treat you.
 
Posts: 5758 | Location: Ohio | Registered: December 27, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Non-Miscreant
posted Hide Post
There's a common sense factor that hasn't been mentioned here. It originally came from Thomas Sowell as he applied it to people and their income potential. Its that people aren't caste into an income level and they remain there from birth until death. Simple concept, and they don't.

Trying to factor out our risk as it was applied to others just doesn't work here. The comparison groups are too large and they try to apply it across the board. For example, my mother is 99 and 5 months old. Today in fact. But she's at a large nursing home/extended care facility, or whatever. Does her survival remain equal to the old women around the bend who live on their own? How many of them can seek and receive medical care at the first sign of any trouble. Most don't drive, thank God.

So are the chances the same for someone being seen and monitored multiple times a day as the opposite. Or even me, who's ancient but not quite that old? I'd have to go and sit in a waiting room (aptly named) at my doctors with a whole bunch of other, probably infected folks? Many of us prefer to take our chances rather than spend an hour or two among the sick or dying.

So back to Sowell. He opines that over our lives we cross into all the different income levels. I'd suggest that not everyone does that, buy many do. The smarter ones particularly. Just saying the disease strikes the elderly harder is probably true, but only if you lump us all together. The ones who don't venture out to crowded disco's and what not along with the ones that do, or who sleep on the sidewalks under an flattened cardboard box.

The important thing being that we can change our risks by what we do and how we live our lives. I kind of liked reading the numbers from South Korea. Sure, its over crowded, but I assume it has 1st world health care and for the most part, its adopted similar eating and other habits. OK, they do eat dogs so maybe I need to back away from that assumption. But at least not bats.

I'm going to guess we'll learn a lot from this disease experience. I personally prefer those who bathe daily. Surely if they're not using toilet paper.


Unhappy ammo seeker
 
Posts: 18394 | Location: Kentucky, USA | Registered: February 25, 2001Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Go ahead punk, make my day
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by midwest guy:
MLB postpones start 2 weeks
Dang, I was hoping for 2 years!
 
Posts: 45798 | Registered: July 12, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lawyers, Guns
and Money
Picture of chellim1
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Doc H.:
The post was to emphasize that we don't have a clue how many people are actually infected. Particularly in China. That number makes a critical difference in calculating CFR.

But isn't that also the case with the flu?
How many people get the flu but never seek medical attention or get tested? Many just suffer at home for a few days. So we don't really know the denominator there either.
We can't really compare one CFR to another CFR if we aren't sure about how many have been infected by either.



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
 
Posts: 24868 | Location: St. Louis, MO | Registered: April 03, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Live Slow,
Die Whenever
Picture of medic451
posted Hide Post
So we cant watch sports, cant go outside, cant attend public events, etc etc. I guess were suppose to just sit inside and watch cable news all day?....
Yeah the media has this all figured out.




"I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, and I won't be laid a hand on. I don't do these things to other people and I require the same from them."
- John Wayne in "The Shootist"
 
Posts: 3514 | Location: California | Registered: May 31, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
This Space for Rent
Picture of ugeesta
posted Hide Post
^^^^^ Check back in 9-10 months to see if there is a baby spike.




We will never know world peace, until three people can simultaneously look each other straight in the eye

Liberals are like pussycats and Twitter is Trump's laser pointer to keep them busy while he takes care of business - Rey HRH.
 
Posts: 5820 | Location: Colorado | Registered: April 20, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by chellim1:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc H.:
The post was to emphasize that we don't have a clue how many people are actually infected. Particularly in China. That number makes a critical difference in calculating CFR.

But isn't that also the case with the flu?
How many people get the flu but never seek medical attention or get tested? Many just suffer at home for a few days. So we don't really know the denominator there either.
We can't really compare one CFR to another CFR if we aren't sure about how many have been infected by either.


Not to nearly the same degree due to long track records. There are actually surveys sent out to regional centers that try to get a reasonable approximation. We aren't even to that stage with this virus.
 
Posts: 9098 | Location: The Red part of Minnesota | Registered: October 06, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Domari Nolo
Picture of Chris17404
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by PASig:
quote:
Originally posted by MRMATT:
Our dipshit dem governor just closed all our county schools for two weeks. As far as I know, there have been no reported cases. WTF!


Not just the schools, this guy is ordering ALL NON ESSENTIAL facilities to close as of this Friday.

Movie theaters, concert venues, etc. Only food, fuel and medical facilities are to remain open.

I have no idea how this works with my employer, I'm in Montgomery county, PA here at work. Are we forced to close down too until March 30? How does that work?

I told my wife she better try and get her food shopping done today instead of Friday-Saturday as it's going to be pure chaos.

These Democrat governors must be meeting and strategizing on how to fuck Trump over and piss his voting base off, I swear to God!


Do you have an official link for this?



 
Posts: 2352 | Location: York, PA | Registered: May 17, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
In the yahd, not too
fah from the cah
Picture of ryan81986
posted Hide Post
I took someone to the hospital yesterday with a 101F fever.... He hadn't even tried taking advil or tylenol. Stupid people combined with a fake "doomsday virus" are the worst. The hospital threw him out 15 minutes after he got there.




 
Posts: 6441 | Location: Just outside of Boston | Registered: March 28, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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