quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:

quote:

Originally posted by smlsig:
Since we have some Docs in this thread I have been wondering about something that I haven’t seen addressed and maybe one or more of you guys could respond..

In the past, even when our flu vaccine wasn’t specifically designed for the actual strain that came over we were advised to still get it as it would somewhat minimize the effect of the flu.

So my question is this...Does the current flu vaccine have any effect on this virus as far as minimizing its possible effects?
It very well may not but I have been curious about this.

It would be easy to give the stock answer, which would be no, but the real answer is more complicated. The flu vaccine stimulates production of antibodies, which may or may not be specific to a specific strain of the influenza virus. But it also stimulates the lymphocytes to respond to invasion in ways we don't understand. We also don't understand the cumulative effect of years or decades of immunizing the "herd" against viral assault. The ecology of viruses in general is a great unknown, and we certainly don't understand the human body completely, or its universe of systems. Otherwise. we would have no disease. So I'm going to give the less convenient and verifiable answer of "maybe," and as noted, will almost certainly prevent or mitigate the effects of influenza, which we already know is a bad actor.

Thank you. As a former biomedical researcher (UTMB 1982-1986) that is what I was thinking and I thank you for acknowledging that not all is known when it comes to how the body actually works...

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

quote:

In any case, I won't be canceling or curtailing any of my upcoming travels.

I'm praying though that by April a majority of this IRRATIONAL hysteria will cease.

You will probably be fine.

However, it's amazing how quickly the virus has spread. Just 7 weeks ago, the global total was less than 250 cases, all in China, and almost all in the city of Wuhan.

Not 100% sure, but I thought in Washington they found an infection on the 36th person they tested. I suspect many more people have had this and assumed it was a cold. It would be interesting to see how many people have antibodies.

Would not be surprised if this bug has been spreading here for months, not weeks.

U.S. is considering ways to discourage travelers from taking cruises

Excerpt:

quote:

WASHINGTON — The United States is considering ways to discourage U.S. travelers from taking cruises as part of a broader Trump administration effort to limit the spread of coronavirus, according to four officials familiar with the situation.

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Originally posted by ensigmatic:
U.S. is considering ways to discourage travelers from taking cruises

Potential imprisonment on a cruise ship is reason enough for me to stay off them.

quote:

Originally posted by sigalert:
Not 100% sure, but I thought in Washington they found an infection on the 36th person they tested. I suspect many more people have had this and assumed it was a cold. It would be interesting to see how many people have antibodies.

Would not be surprised if this bug has been spreading here for months, not weeks.

I posted very early in the thread that I was sick with pneumonia and it hit incredibly hard and fast after weeks of little warning signs. They put me through two courses of antibiotics, including a shot and a ten day course of something I've never heard of before I started to get better.

I wonder two things:
1) Did I maybe have it?
2) If I didn't, and I did eventually end up catching it, what kind of odds am I looking at if I got pneumonia out of nowhere and was the only one sick in the house?

Do we have any kind of data on carriers that don't get infected, or is it far too early for any kind of information on that front?

I think you missed his point. Many, many hotels, restaurants, and other businesses are franchises or mom and pops. This has been planned a year in advance, maybe more?
^^^^
I doubt that. I have run a small successful business for several decades. Hurricane Katrina, the nations worst natural disaster devastated the entire Coast. Several years later the GOM oil spill shut down tourism, last year the opening of the Bonnet Carrie Spillway shut down the seafood industry. It has been very hard, but I have survived with the help of others. The tourism industry here is huge and they have recovered.

My point which you perhaps missed is that extreme pessimism and hysteria have fueled the problem. I am quite familiar with the tourism industry as it is the main driver of the economy in my area.

I don’t believe I’d want to risk being quarantined on a cruise ship for two weeks even if I were totally immune to the disease itself.
But good on the people who do and demonstrate they “ain’t skeert.”

Fed quarantines U.S. dollars repatriated from Asia on coronavirus caution

https://www.reuters.com/articl...aution-idUSKBN20T1YT

The U.S. Federal Reserve has begun quarantining physical dollars that it repatriates from Asia before recirculating them in the U.S. financial system as a precautionary measure against spreading the virus, a Fed spokesperson told Reuters.

She said regional Fed banks that help manage the money supply will set aside shipments of dollars from Asia for seven to 10 days before processing and redistributing them to financial institutions. The policy, first reported by Reuters, was implemented on Feb. 21, the official said.

As the global reserve currency, U.S. dollars are the most widely distributed notes in the world with around $1.75 trillion worth of cash in circulation globally, according to the Fed. Much that is circulated overseas, particularly in Asia where the dollar is often stronger than local currencies.

It is also filthy. A 2014 study by researchers at New York University identified 3,000 types of bacteria on dollar bills due to how widely and frequently they change hands.

The U.S. central bank has not gone as far as its counterparts in China and Korea, which have ordered local currency notes to be disinfected with ultraviolet light or destroyed altogether. But Fed officials are in regular contact with the CDC and State Department regarding the spread of the virus and are prepared to add other regions to its quarantine list, the spokesperson said.

quote:

Originally posted by jimmy123x:

quote:

Originally posted by arabiancowboy:
I’m scheduled for a cruise next week. Hopefully we aren’t quarantined on the ship! It’s the Bahamas so I think my chances are good it will be fine.

The Bahamas put out a statement that if you've been to Italy, S. Korea, or China in the past 20 days before going there, they won't let you in.

If you get a chance check out the Exumas, they are beautiful.

.
My neighbor was telling me last week he’s booked a cruise to Italy for 9 of his immediate family. I didn’t have the heart to discuss.

I have been looking at the mortality rates as posted on the John Hopkins website and have noticed some interesting data points.

As of this writing with 101,782 cases the worldwide mortality rate is reported to be about 3.4%

A lot of people are commenting that the data coming out of China is not reliable so if you remove those data points the mortality rate drops to 2.0%

I don’t know where some medical “officials” are saying the rates are about 1-1.5% I haven’t seen any data to support it.

The US rate is actually considerably higher but I think that’s due to the relatively low sample number.

quote:

Originally posted by smlsig:
I have been looking at the mortality rates as posted on the John Hopkins website and have noticed some interesting data points.

As of this writing with 101,782 cases the worldwide mortality rate is reported to be about 3.4%

A lot of people are commenting that the data coming out of China is not reliable so if you remove those data points the mortality rate drops to 2.0%

I don’t know where some medical “officials” are saying the rates are about 1-1.5% I haven’t seen any data to support it.

The US rate is actually considerably higher but I think that’s due to the relatively low sample number.

As of now these numbers are hideously skewed.
Why? Rate = deaths / KNOWN CASES. Which in the US is someone that was so sick they felt the need to go to the doctor. What about the people that got sick, got better and went about their business? Nope, they aren't a known case. Pretty much the same world wide.

A HHS doc just came out with an expected rate of 0.1-1.0% is where this will wind up. Slightly more than the every year seasonal flu.

^^^

And if they’re not a known case how do they get counted?
I’m just trying to ascertain the methodology.

My friend and his wife left for China a little bit ago. I trained with him yesterday and told him I wanted one more roll before he came back and killed everyone.

Supposedly there are two strains of the virus. One is much milder than the other. First confirmed case in Indianapolis. None of the basketball tournaments in town to be cancelled.

quote:

Originally posted by smlsig:
The US rate is actually considerably higher but I think that’s due to the relatively low sample number.

And also because most of the deaths were at that single retirement community in Washington.

I just heard that Dr. Anthony Fauci just published an article in the New England Journal of Medicine in which he states the mortality rate is less than 1%
I tried to find it but was unable to locate it.

quote:

Originally posted by smlsig:
I just heard that Dr. Anthony Fauci just published an article in the New England Journal of Medicine in which he states the mortality rate is less than 1%
I tried to find it but was unable to locate it.

It was published about a week ago, I posted it in this thread then.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Is this the article?
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by smlsig:
I just heard that Dr. Anthony Fauci just published an article in the New England Journal of Medicine in which he states the mortality rate is less than 1%
I tried to find it but was unable to locate it.

It was published about a week ago, I posted it in this thread then.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

In which he writes:

quote:

If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%.

Note emphasis added.

He may be right. Odds are probably good his assumption is a valid one. As has been repeated here many times: At this time we simply do not know.

quote:

Originally posted by PeteF:
As of now these numbers are hideously skewed.
Why? Rate = deaths / KNOWN CASES. Which in the US is someone that was so sick they felt the need to go to the doctor.

Actually, in the US until just a few days ago, you had to be in the hospital with pneumonia (and then only in certain states/areas) to get tested. That's why only a few hundred people had been tested.