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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)

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September 21, 2020, 02:08 PM
esdunbar
When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
I hear ya. That's why I decided to chart it myself. I had no faith in the death totals for COVID. Here are the last 5 years of total deaths by week. These are counted when the deaths occur, not when they are reported. You can see the big spike in 2020. On the bottom I charted the deaths the CDC are counting as COVID. They definite relate. So ok, we lost 175k, I still don't think it was worth the shutdown. I think we would have lost them anyways. I'll be curious to see if we finish the year under average.

A couple of notes, you'll see the totals go up each year, so we should expect to be above 2019.

Also, the last few weeks can't be considered. Death certificates come in several weeks after a death typically. So, those super low numbers will keep coming up over the next few weeks.

I was surprised to see this, but it would indeed appear to have been worse than the flu.


September 21, 2020, 02:10 PM
parabellum
Listen, nothing personal, but print it out, mail it to me and I will wipe my ass with it. That's what it's worth to me- waste paper. I'm not listening to any more of the bullshit.

I'll say it again- the day will come when the majority of people will realize that we've been scammed or lead down the garden path by smack-talking fools, and if I am alive on that day, I am going to shout to the world "I TOLD YOU SO."
September 21, 2020, 02:17 PM
HKAngusKL
The lockdowns were never going to work at even making a dent in containing the virus, as implemented, because high risk vectors like grocery stores and big box retail stores never really closed. Folks have been walking through enclosed spaces in stores breathing in the same air as everyone else since March, and no surgical or cloth masks will prevent exposure under those conditions.

After rioters were allowed to gather in public with impunity across the country, it became clear to me that the lockdowns were never really about keeping vulnerable segments of the population safe. This whole exercise has been about control, and inflicting maximum damage to the economy during an election year.

2020 has been the year where the Democrats finally unmasked their long term agenda to the American people. I am hoping that enough people are seeing just how insane those plans are, and the pushback at the polls is too large for even the Democrats to cheat their way to victory.
September 21, 2020, 02:25 PM
sigmonkey
quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:...
Shake hands. Hug your friends. Sit close to people. Share food. Mingle with crowds....


Yep.

Did just that when/since the hype began.

Got sick, got better, only wore the mask in the ER, cause I needed to be seen and it was the only option available, but that was the only time I have.

I did stay isolated for two weeks as I dealt with the pneumonia and because I would not intentionally expose anyone to anything infections, but have resumed my normal, no mask, no silliness lifestyle.

Yeah, I got something that was different than the "regular flu" or a cold.

But other than lasting longer than the flu, it was not as bad as any flu I have had.

None of this was worth the cost, the damage done, the extent of that may not be realized for years, and it has been tremendous.


Life is not without risks, and unknown things of nature that are gonna bite us in the ass.

I'm gonna stay in the game as long as I can.

Let other's sit on the bench.




"the meaning of life, is to give life meaning" Ani Yehudi אני יהודי Le'olam lo shuv לעולם לא שוב!
September 21, 2020, 03:03 PM
08 Cayenne
The only thing I have seen, in my lifetime, that was a larger scam than covid was the Y2K BS. Only because it lasted much longer. Still has wasted a lot of my time and resources.
September 21, 2020, 03:11 PM
HRK
Many of the deaths related to COVID were people that were very ill to begin with, and the same people getting H1N1 or the normal flu may have suffered the same fate.

If you've ever seen a death certificate it lists all the complications of your death, if they are related to the death, so you can have several line items listed, COVID being one of them.

YOu could die of a heart attack and the test says you had COVID, and it gets recorded as COVID related, regardless if COVID had anything to do with the actual cause of your heart attack.
September 21, 2020, 05:05 PM
Graniteguy
COVID reported deaths may be approaching 200K, but look at the bright side:

Obesity related deaths are down.
Smoking related deaths are down.
Cancer related deaths are down.
FLU related deaths are down.
September 21, 2020, 05:09 PM
Rightwire
I for one am tired of hearing that this is all based on science, yet no one has published this science. All the people get ate summaries, most of which is constantly being corrected for being wrong.

You want it shut down, prove to all of us why. Hold a meeting and walk through your science, facts, data and the methodology used to arrive at the decisions.

I'd also like to know what Democrats are invested in the plexiglass industry, holy cow.




Pronoun: His Royal Highness and benevolent Majesty of all he surveys

343 - Never Forget

Its better to be Pavlov's dog than Schrodinger's cat

There are three types of mistakes; Those you learn from, those you suffer from, and those you don't survive.
September 21, 2020, 06:26 PM
nhtagmember
and the CDC flips again on transmission guidelines...apparently the ones recently published were just a 'draft'
September 21, 2020, 07:00 PM
Redhookbklyn
quote:
Originally posted by nhtagmember:
and the CDC flips again on transmission guidelines...apparently the ones recently published were just a 'draft'


Just like the draft I feel when people try to blow smoke up my ass.



“There is love in me the likes of which you’ve never seen. There is rage in me the likes of which should never escape."
—Mary Shelley, Frankenstein

September 21, 2020, 07:05 PM
bigdeal
quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire:
You want it shut down, prove to all of us why. Hold a meeting and walk through your science, facts, data and the methodology used to arrive at the decisions.
Nope you peon, just do as you're told. They feel zero need to tell us anything or justify their actions in any way. It's simply insane the number of people who will simply fall in line and obey without asking any questions at all.


-----------------------------
Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter
September 21, 2020, 09:08 PM
Keystoner
esdunbar:

Re: your graph

With the weekly Covid deaths now approaching zero, why aren't the total deaths approaching the previous 6-year average? We're approaching about ~30,000 fewer total deaths.

ETA: Sheesh, I didn't read you post close enough--I was focused on your graph. I now see that we shouldn't be comparing September.



Year V
September 21, 2020, 09:10 PM
parabellum
The asshole making the chart ran out of that color of ink
September 21, 2020, 09:14 PM
Keystoner
quote:
Originally posted by HRK:
YOu could die of a heart attack and the test says you had COVID, and it gets recorded as COVID related, regardless if COVID had anything to do with the actual cause of your heart attack.

esdunbar's graph should bear this out with the *total* deaths curve. If "they" have been mis-attributing deaths like this, then e.g., the total heart attack deaths will go down from average. The Covid scam will be evident. We'll see where we are with total deaths after a year and see if any bump actually occurred with Covid.



Year V
September 21, 2020, 09:19 PM
sigspecops
The absolute worse thing about this is that the door has been kicked wide open. All we need is a "health" crisis of some kind and full control is taken and everyone obeys because they're scared out of their minds. And what if a china virus arrived that really could kill 200k or more people? Its likely to happen. We could get shut down until we're back into the stone age. I'm also afraid that we're in the minority because it seems that most Americans seem to love this stupid shit.


No one's life, liberty or property is safe while the legislature is in session.- Mark Twain
September 21, 2020, 09:42 PM
feersum dreadnaught




NRA Life Member - "Fear God and Dreadnaught"
September 22, 2020, 05:50 AM
Dakor
^^^^^ That sign needs to be corrected:
Seeing how some people wear masks, I now understand that some contraceptives should never fail.
September 22, 2020, 07:55 AM
Rightwire
I was just part of a discussion that really surprised me, and didn't at the same time. The person making this statement is a PhD and a dedicated Democrat....

"I have a friend, who is a intelligent person, believes that the numbers of cases and deaths are exaggerated for political reasons. He believes hospitals report Covid deaths because they get more money."

Sad really as this is a person of power and influence.




Pronoun: His Royal Highness and benevolent Majesty of all he surveys

343 - Never Forget

Its better to be Pavlov's dog than Schrodinger's cat

There are three types of mistakes; Those you learn from, those you suffer from, and those you don't survive.
September 22, 2020, 08:14 AM
esdunbar
quote:
Originally posted by HRK:
Many of the deaths related to COVID were people that were very ill to begin with, and the same people getting H1N1 or the normal flu may have suffered the same fate.

If you've ever seen a death certificate it lists all the complications of your death, if they are related to the death, so you can have several line items listed, COVID being one of them.

YOu could die of a heart attack and the test says you had COVID, and it gets recorded as COVID related, regardless if COVID had anything to do with the actual cause of your heart attack.


That’s what drove me to start watching the total deaths. While cases like you say have clearly occurred, it’s obvious it’s not statistically relevant.

What I’m curious about now, is how do we finish the year. As the graphs clearly show, we are at a point where we typically start increasing our weekly total deaths. If we drop down under the averages, that would indicate that most of the people who died from COVID this spring were going to die this fall anyways. So now we shut down our economy to save very sick folks 6 months?

However, if we stay above average, then we will know that COVID did indeed kill 200k -ish people in all of 2020. Then we have to decide if it was worth it or not. I’m inclined to say it wasn’t worth it, but we have to accept the number is fairly accurate if we don’t drop down below “the curve” for the rest of the year.

What is also clear from the graph is that we are basically back to expected weekly deaths. There is zero reason for anything to be shutdown at all.
September 22, 2020, 12:20 PM
Rightwire
I want to see a graph, state by state, showing deaths from all categories and a comparative to the previous year.

If I see a remarkable drop in all other causes inline with a high number of COVId then it tells the story.

If all of the normal categories are close to levels from the previous year, and COVID is above and beyond that, it tells a different story.


That is facts and data.




Pronoun: His Royal Highness and benevolent Majesty of all he surveys

343 - Never Forget

Its better to be Pavlov's dog than Schrodinger's cat

There are three types of mistakes; Those you learn from, those you suffer from, and those you don't survive.