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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)

This topic can be found at:
https://sigforum.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/320601935/m/9320007564

April 13, 2020, 11:39 PM
PowerSurge
When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
Dr. Falsi the spitballer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3l9dZlBF-M


———————————————
The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God. Psalm 14:1
April 14, 2020, 01:38 AM
ersatzknarf
quote:
Originally posted by YooperSigs:
I signed the recall Whitmer petition. Over 200K so far.


Me, too.

That's a good improvement from yesterday.

Let's hope this works!




April 14, 2020, 01:57 AM
YooperSigs
I dont have any real faith that the petition will gain traction. But it does show a growing push back.


End of Earth: 2 Miles
Upper Peninsula: 4 Miles
April 14, 2020, 02:27 AM
f2
sometimes these pandemic peter out for no apparent reason... Outbreak, FRONTLINE 5-5-15
April 14, 2020, 05:02 AM
Keystoner
Trump distinguished between 'Democrat' and 'democratic' (<-- is my capitalization correct?). I know some D's get their panties in a wad over the distinction and they take offense to one of the words (I believe 'Democrat'), but I never understood or tried to research it until right now. One word is a noun and one is an adjective. When Trump said, "democratic governor," that's an adjective. If he said, "That governor is a Democrat," that's a noun. What's the problem?



The danger of baobabs is so little recognized.
April 14, 2020, 05:37 AM
Micropterus
quote:
Originally posted by bald1:
Paula Reid of CBS News Frown


I've gotten to where I hate CBS. They've always been bad, but in the last few months, have moved into the CNN category of news.


_____________
"I enter a swamp as a sacred place—a sanctum sanctorum. There is the strength—the marrow of Nature." - Henry David Thoreau
April 14, 2020, 06:00 AM
Bassamatic
All of the MSM are now operating at new lows. It's tough to pick out who is the worst. Think about it, they are truly getting desperate. They are now stuck with sleepy Joe who just got accused of sexual harassment, and they know they are going to lose the WH and very probably the House of Representatives. No, all they have left is the Wuhan Flu and that is falling apart as well. Trump is doing a great job and deep inside they know it.

That blonde from CBS looked like she was going to jump off a building after Trump told her she would be the last person he told anything to. It was awesome. Smile



.....never marry a woman who is mean to your waitress.
April 14, 2020, 06:11 AM
Excam_Man
How are these stores bypassing the fire code by closing/blocking off exits?




April 14, 2020, 06:27 AM
tleddy
Last Night on Fox 5
a virologist gave bad information.. Made me nuts, so, opinion, please:

Laboratory assays including those for COVID 19, have important elements (Galen, Beyond Normality))

Specificity - the assay will measure what is desired (molecule, bacteria, virus particle etc.) and only that item.

Sensitivity - It will measure to the level of detection that is clinically significant to, in the case of COVID 19 and other disease causing entities, that indicate an active infection.

Predictability - a positive result will indicate the presence of disease; a negative the absence of disease

A perfect test would be 100% Specific, 100% Sensitive and 100% Predictive… unfortunately, that does not happen in real terms.

Too sensitive can detect similar particles, leading to false positives; not sensitive enough, false negatives.

Specificity is relational… in testing for viruses, there are familial similarities that can cause cross-reactivity, thereby false positives.

From the above, predictability is simply never perfect.

It was posited on Fox by a virologist that the perfect way to stop COVID 19 in absolute terms is to test all of the population and quarantine those that tested positive for three weeks - voila: no more virus!

Fabulous concept and fatally flawed!

1. Testing total population - there are small but significant populations that will not be tested: Homeless, suspicious poor and those with simply philosophic disagreement that refuse to be tested. If any of those not tested turns out to be infected, they become Patient 0 and it starts all over.

2. Testing error for false negative - the Sensitivity of any assay measures a floor amount of virus and an infected patient may not be producing enough viral particle for the assay to measure. Once more, the missed diagnosis produces Patient 0.

3. Logistics - development of clinical assays is not a minor event, even with todays technology. The fact that assays have been developed, including those by Abbott Labs, is amazing! The methodology proposed by the virologist would be the same as a dipstick pregnancy test or blood sugar test…, massive development time-line and serious accuracy issues.

The real model for solving the COVIDS 19 problem is immunization.

From the CDC:

After a global eradication campaign that lasted more than 20 years, the 33rd World Health Assembly declares the world free of smallpox in 1980.

https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/h...smallpox-origin.html

Once an effective immunization is developed, the virus will be relegated to history like the smallpox…


No quarter
.308/.223
April 14, 2020, 06:40 AM
arabiancowboy
quote:
Originally posted by Excam_Man:
How are these stores bypassing the fire code by closing/blocking off exits?


That’s a great question.
April 14, 2020, 06:49 AM
kx90
quote:
Originally posted by arabiancowboy:
quote:
Originally posted by Excam_Man:
How are these stores bypassing the fire code by closing/blocking off exits?


That’s a great question.
Stopped in the local grocery store yesterday, they have now blocked off aisles to try to keep the flow of foot traffic in the directions they want it. They also now have a sign on the front door stating the local fire dept has reduced their capacity for the time being.
April 14, 2020, 06:52 AM
chellim1
quote:
Originally posted by f2:
just a little over half a dozen pages since yesterday. yup, this thing is petering out...
***
Originally posted by f2:
sometimes these pandemic peter out for no apparent reason... Outbreak, FRONTLINE 5-5-15

So... is it safe out there? Is it OK to come out of my bunker?
Is Dr. Falsi gone yet? Can we go back to life as normal, as if it never happened?



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
April 14, 2020, 07:03 AM
ersatzknarf
quote:

I dont have any real faith that the petition will gain traction. But it does show a growing push back.


You never know! Smile




April 14, 2020, 07:05 AM
myrottiety
Went by Cabelas the other day grabbed some 12GA for a range trip. They were counting the number of people that came into the store and the number that went out. I'm assuming this was to track density of the foot traffic? Found it strange?




Train how you intend to Fight

Remember - Training is not sparring. Sparring is not fighting. Fighting is not combat.
April 14, 2020, 07:13 AM
AirmanJeff
quote:
Originally posted by jonrem:
I think we’ve got to lift the restrictions on business ASAP. We’re in uncharted territory economically. A quick drive around a normally bustling business district the other day was chilling. We’re effectively creating our own Great Depression. At some point, even the most stalwart social isolationist is going to have to concede that the healthcare system will have to be burned in sacrifice to the greater economy. I don’t think it’ll come to that, but I think we’re past the point we should be primarily concerned with overwhelming the healthcare system.

Return to business as usual, let this thing spread while it’s sunny and warm in most of the country. Enough so secondary spikes aren’t coming at us in the fall and winter when most of the country is stuck indoors and transmission easier. Even if restrictions are removed immediately, there are enough people who would choose to avoid dine in restaurants and bars, shopping malls, and public events that ”back to normal” isn’t going to be the old ”normal.” This thing is permanently burned in people’s psyches and isn’t going to spread like it conceivably might have a scant 30-60 days ago.

Practice good hygiene, (I travel frequently and am amazed at how many people never wash their hands after using airport and gas station bathrooms - maybe that will change.) consider isolating or taking other precautions if you’re high risk or want to choose to lower your risk, and let’s get this country back to work!


Well said!
April 14, 2020, 07:14 AM
Mars_Attacks
I am now producing PPE shields at the rate of 400 per day.

The 3D printers and cnc router are running non stop and I am cutting polycarbonate shielding on my spare plotter.




____________________________

Eeewwww, don't touch it!
Here, poke at it with this stick.
April 14, 2020, 07:18 AM
braillediver
quote:
Originally posted by tleddy:
Test all of the population and quarantine those that tested positive for three weeks - voila: no more virus!

Fabulous concept and fatally flawed!

1) How long would it take to Test the population? You'd Need Instant, Accurate and Reliable Results.
2) You'd have to Test and Immediately segregate the population.

Logistically Impossible. Practicality= 0

Congress should be investigating This Issue Now! Trying to find a practical solution Now so there's an end game to the shutdown.

Working Hand in Hand with the President for the benefit of We the People.


____________________________________________________

The butcher with the sharpest knife has the warmest heart.
April 14, 2020, 07:56 AM
tleo205
The population of the world is 7.8 BILLION (thanks for the correction) and there are 2 Million infections world wide. Why are we ruining lives and business for such a small percentage? Precautions are fine but to willingly and eagerly bring the economy to a halt and bankrupt people is beyond ridiculous! This has to stop NOW! I've written my state and federal representatives and all I hear are crickets but maybe if everyone would deluge them they may begin to listen. We should damn sure remember them come next election.
April 14, 2020, 08:11 AM
holdem
quote:
Originally posted by tleo205:
The population of the world is 3.85 BILLION and there are 2 Million infections world wide.



Umm, check those numbers. That was the population back in the early 70's.

Currently the number is about 7.8 billion.
April 14, 2020, 08:12 AM
chellim1
587,752 Confirmed Cases
23,765 Deaths*
44,207 Recovered
Total US Population = 331,002,651

*More than likely, this figure includes deaths of those found with or carrying the virus who may have actually died from other causes

The numbers speak for themselves. The Chi-Com Virus is certainly nothing to sneeze at; every case is regrettable and every death is a tragedy. But in the grand scheme of things, what it amounts to is nothing more than an anomaly that will make a typical flu season into a bad one. Yet, here we are sitting around as our lives, and more alarmingly, our national heritage and identity are being taken from us, putatively for our own good. Where have we heard that before?

Meanwhile, as the President is doing absolutely everything he can to try and lift the lockdown and resuscitate what was a $22 trillion economy...
http://ace.mu.nu/



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor