When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
quote:
Originally posted by PowerSurge:
quote:
Originally posted by maladat: I'm not sure where President Trump's 100,000-200,000 number the other day came from.
Where do you think? Fauci. The President didn’t pull the numbers from his ass. Don’t tell me you’ve already forgotten. It was just last week for Pete’s sake! Lmao
All the 'experts' will start to have selective amnesia in the weeks to come, but the internet remembers...
"Oh, well wait, that's when we thought, the thing, and the Chinese, and the best guess - because the numbers, 40,000 vents, 1.8M dead...."
Mmmkay, we understand that your number and models were full of shit, and we said that 2-3 weeks ago.
quote:
Originally posted by Prefontaine: Chinook flew right over my neighborhood today, low and slow. Never seen one flying over my neighborhood before. (Have seen many of these over the years, just not here).
They're coming for you man. Beware the men with green faces...
"we've gotta roll with the punches, learn to play all of our hunches Making the best of what ever comes our way Forget that blind ambition and learn to trust your intuition Plowing straight ahead come what may And theres a cowboy in the jungle" Jimmy Buffet
April 07, 2020, 10:18 PM
46and2
Singer John Prine has died, reportedly as a result of the virus.
He was 73 and wasn't exactly healthy, but this appears to have been too much.
The IHME model has been off for number of beds needed.
But I started looking at it at least back to 30 Mar.
Their estimate for total U.S. deaths was about 80,000. Was then, and is now
Their estimate on 30 Mar for NY deaths was 15,546. Today their NY death est is 15,618
They did make some very significant changes in when they thought various states would see peak numbers.
The WH team said they didn't trust IHME for deaths because the model included some Chinese data. That was when the WH team was saying 100k to 200k for the country.
Let's see how they do over the next few weeks.
BTW, earlier I mentioned that estimating beds and ventilators needed is very tricky. You need good average numbers for how long patients will be in the hospital and how long on the ventilators.
April 07, 2020, 10:24 PM
PASig
quote:
Originally posted by SigSentry:
quote:
Originally posted by Kuisis: Well John Prine is gone.
Very few coming off vents. RIP.
I’m very bummed tonight at this news, he was one of my favorites.
Having cancer and only one lung definitely did not help either.
April 07, 2020, 10:25 PM
Il Cattivo
So if your state peaks later, we can predict your needs better? Well, maybe that'll help those states that peak later somewhat.
April 07, 2020, 10:39 PM
old rugged cross
The pbs frontline program is worth the watch.
"Practice like you want to play in the game"
April 07, 2020, 10:44 PM
sdy
Just my opinion, but I would expect that for a new model that had to make a lot of assumptions - once real data starts coming in they will make adjustments and better estimates.
April 07, 2020, 10:51 PM
sdy
From one of the leading assholes that brought us obamacare, Ezekiel Emanuel:
Realistically, COVID-19 will be here for the next 18 months or more . We will not be able to return to normalcy until we find a vaccine or effective medications.
I know that’s dreadful news to hear. How are people supposed to find work if this goes on in some form for a year and a half? Is all that economic pain worth trying to stop COVID-19? The truth is we have no choice. If we prematurely end that physical distancing and the other measures keeping it at bay, deaths could skyrocket into the hundreds of thousands if not a million.
We cannot return to normal until there’s a vaccine. Conferences, concerts, sporting events, religious services, dinner in a restaurant, none of that will resume until we find a vaccine, a treatment, or a cure.
"we've gotta roll with the punches, learn to play all of our hunches Making the best of what ever comes our way Forget that blind ambition and learn to trust your intuition Plowing straight ahead come what may And theres a cowboy in the jungle" Jimmy Buffet
April 07, 2020, 11:13 PM
old rugged cross
quote:
Realistically, COVID-19 will be here for the next 18 months or more . We will not be able to return to normalcy until we find a vaccine or effective medications.
I know that’s dreadful news to hear. How are people supposed to find work if this goes on in some form for a year and a half? Is all that economic pain worth trying to stop COVID-19? The truth is we have no choice. If we prematurely end that physical distancing and the other measures keeping it at bay, deaths could skyrocket into the hundreds of thousands if not a million.
We cannot return to normal until there’s a vaccine. Conferences, concerts, sporting events, religious services, dinner in a restaurant, none of that will resume until we find a vaccine, a treatment, or a cure.
Sdy, honestly who cares what he thinks. This whole thread of full of peoples opinions on and off the topic of the Wuhan.
He has an opinion, so fucking what. I see absolutely no value of posting this. Why do it? Is there a purpose or is it just more jiborish bullshit from a cheesedick?
"Practice like you want to play in the game"
April 07, 2020, 11:16 PM
Rightwire
Over a week ago Dr. Fauci stood in front of the country and described how they were going to test these various drugs on 1,000 plus patients in NYC and we'd have results soon.
Other Dr's have claimed that within 3-4 hrs of taking the 3 drugs patients show remarkable improvement and after 24 hrs are more or less normal.
The normal process for the illness is 6-8 days in most people. Seems like between 3-4 hrs to 24 hrs and 6-8 days we would know by now how effective it is.
Why haven't we heard anything?? Why are we only hearing from Dr's and patients using outside of this big study?
Pronoun: His Royal Highness and benevolent Majesty of all he surveys
343 - Never Forget
Its better to be Pavlov's dog than Schrodinger's cat
There are three types of mistakes; Those you learn from, those you suffer from, and those you don't survive.
April 07, 2020, 11:36 PM
Expat
quote:
Originally posted by sdy: Ezekiel Emanuel:
Realistically, COVID-19 will be here for the next 18 months or more . We will not be able to return to normalcy until we find a vaccine or effective medications.
I know that’s dreadful news to hear. How are people supposed to find work if this goes on in some form for a year and a half? Is all that economic pain worth trying to stop COVID-19? The truth is we have no choice. If we prematurely end that physical distancing and the other measures keeping it at bay, deaths could skyrocket into the hundreds of thousands if not a million.
We cannot return to normal until there’s a vaccine. Conferences, concerts, sporting events, religious services, dinner in a restaurant, none of that will resume until we find a vaccine, a treatment, or a cure.
He's not only an incredible healthcare architect, he's also a leading economist.
Thanks for posting that. Of course Covid-19 will be here for the next 18 months or so. And guess what we'll find a way to thrive and prosper. This is a terrific reminder of how these assholes think and will do or say anything to compel control over our lives. That's all they want.
It's the fast boat to socialism for them. Imagine what we'd look like if they had their way.
What we are doing is working.
April 07, 2020, 11:46 PM
Fenris
quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire: Why haven't we heard anything?? Why are we only hearing from Dr's and patients using outside of this big study?
I'll bet you a dollar that those fucktards at CDC & FDA haven't done shit.
God Bless and Protect our Beloved President, Donald John Trump.
April 07, 2020, 11:49 PM
PASig
quote:
Originally posted by sdy: From one of the leading assholes that brought us obamacare, Ezekiel Emanuel:
Yeah, I’m not taking any advice from this clown. The guy who was all for death panels and not letting anyone over age 75 have healthcare to prolong their lives?
This guy is probably delighted at this pandemic and how it’s killing mostly older people.
April 08, 2020, 01:21 AM
Excam_Man
quote:
Originally posted by bigdeal:
quote:
Originally posted by sdy: Maybe a lot of the deaths occurred in patients who were not hospitalized ?
So we're having massive amounts of people dying at home?
That's it!!
100,000+ people are dead in their homes. Nobody knows yet, because we are all sheltered in place!
——————————————— The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God. Psalm 14:1
April 08, 2020, 06:10 AM
BansheeOne
The question is rather complex. Of listed COVID-19 deaths with co-morbidities, how many died of the virus' direct effects like pneumonia? How many would have died of their pre-existing conditions at this time anyway? How many died because the infection worsened their overall situation where their body couldn't cope, though they might have survived any single problem? How many would have died at a later time of their existing condition, but their deaths were accelerated by the infection? Etc.
Meanwhile my alma mater weighs in on the question how many of the total infections we're actually seeing.
quote:
COVID-19: on average only 6% of actual SARS-CoV-2 infections detected worldwide
Actual number of infections may already have reached several tens of millions
The number of confirmed cases for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 officially issued by countries and widely commented on by national and international media outlets dramatically understates the true number of infections, a recent report from the University of Göttingen suggests. Dr Christian Bommer and Professor Sebastian Vollmer from Göttingen University have used estimates of COVID-19 mortality and time until death from a recent study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases to test the quality of official case records. Their data shows that countries have only discovered on average about 6% of coronavirus infections and the true number of infected people worldwide may already have reached several tens of millions.
Insufficient and delayed testing may explain why some European countries, such as Italy and Spain, are experiencing much higher casualty numbers (relative to reported confirmed cases) than Germany, which has detected an estimated 15.6% of infections compared to only 3.5% in Italy or 1.7% in Spain. Detection rates are even lower in the United States (1.6%) and the United Kingdom (1.2%) two countries that have received widespread criticism from public health experts for their delayed response to the pandemic.
In sharp contrast to this, South Korea appears to have discovered almost half of all its SARS-CoV-2 infections. The authors estimate that on 31 March 2020, Germany had 460,000 infections. Based on the same method, they calculate that the United States had more than ten million, Spain more than five million, Italy around three million and the United Kingdom around two million infections. On the same day the Johns Hopkins University reported that globally there were less than 900,000 confirmed cases, meaning that the vast majority of infections were undetected.
Sebastian Vollmer, Professor of Development Economics at the University of Göttingen, says, These results mean that governments and policy-makers need to exercise extreme caution when interpreting case numbers for planning purposes. Such extreme differences in the amount and quality of testing carried out in different countries mean that official case records are largely uninformative and do not provide helpful information. Christian Bommer adds: Major improvements in the ability of countries to detect new infections and contain the virus are urgently needed.
The number of confirmed cases for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 officially issued by countries and widely commented on by national and international media outlets dramatically understates the true number of infections, a recent report from the University of Göttingen suggests.
That's what we were discussing here yesterday, but without the fancy Göttingen credentials.
What we all lack is solid, reliable information; specifically the actual numbers of deaths caused solely by the Chinese Virus and more importantly the number of people who have been infected by it. When you divide former by the latter, you get a percentage that tells you how lethal the virus is. Because the Chinese have lied about this from the start, we cannot really know when the first person on our soil was infected. That meant that the denominator more than likely was artificially low. But given we do know of in unusually large number of people with severe flu-like symptoms that more than likely was the Chinese Virus in the waning months of last year, it now looks as if the plague came to our shores perhaps several months before the original estimation of late December 2019 and early January. That would make the denominator much higher and the resulting lethality significantly lower.This message has been edited. Last edited by: chellim1,
"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown
"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor
April 08, 2020, 07:18 AM
Pipe Smoker
Interesting report from Johns Hopkins:
“Countries that have a widespread vaccination programme involving the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) jab have a coronavirus death rate almost six times lower than nations that do not use it, a study reveals.
The BCG vaccine was invented a century ago and gives immunity to tuberculosis (TB) — a bacterial infection — but it is known to have other benefits.
Previous trials discovered people that receive the jab, which costs as little as £30, have improved immune systems and are able to protect themselves from infection.”
Beware the men with green faces... 
