When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)

April 06, 2020, 03:51 PM

RHINOWSO

quote:
Originally posted by trapper189:
The guy at our Wal-Mart Neighborhood Market with his little number clicker thing was absolutely giddy with his new found power letting people into the store as other people left the store. The gentleman two six foot apart dots in front of me waiting his turn to be checked in by number clicker guy, apologized and made the comment that it was a crummy job to have to do. Number clicker guy replied he actually loved the job. When I got to the same spot, I said, "I hope you meant you love having a job when so many folks don't" and he said no, he really liked this job and we all have to do our part.

The world is full of people who believe the world would be a better place if we all just listened to them and did "our part".

Great example of people who find a lust for power, not for doing anything useful, but just power.

April 06, 2020, 04:11 PM

sjtill

Another pet peeve:
We shouldn’t be talking about social distancing; what we want is physical distancing but social intimacy—or at least social proximity.

April 06, 2020, 04:34 PM

sdy

https://www.breitbart.com/poli...ntilators-right-now/

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said he was comfortable with the number of ventilators in his state during a Monday press conference on the coronavirus pandemic.

“We don’t need any additional ventilators right now,” Cuomo said to reporters.

“There is no hospital that needs ventilators that doesn’t have ventilators, there is no hospital that needs PPE (personal protective equipment) that doesn’t have it in the state system,” Cuomo said.

On Friday, Cuomo ordered the National Guard to acquire and move ventilators from hospitals around the state. On Saturday, Cuomo reported that China had donated 1,000 machines to New York, thanks to foundations set up by Alibaba founders Jack Ma and Joseph Tsai.

Cuomo also thanked states like Washington, Oregon, and California for releasing their own ventilators to help New York.

“That is the right attitude,” Cuomo said. “That’s the only way we do this as a nation, we’re going to have to be flexible.”

The New York governor asserted that even though the hospitals were at “red line” capacity, he felt that the state was successful in managing resources.

“Are we managing this situation that best that can be managed, yes, have we lost anyone who we could have saved, I don’t believe so,” he said.

April 06, 2020, 04:36 PM

chellim1

quote:
Originally posted by sjtill:
We shouldn’t be talking about social distancing; what we want is physical distancing but social intimacy—or at least social proximity.

Ha! Good luck with that one!
I know what you mean but "social distancing", for better or worse, is a term that has made it into our lexicon.

"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor

April 06, 2020, 04:38 PM

konata88

quote:
Originally posted by sjtill:
Another pet peeve:
We shouldn’t be talking about social distancing; what we want is physical distancing but social intimacy—or at least social proximity.

I'd just as soon stop using any coined phrase starting with social. I hate these phashionable monikers.

April 06, 2020, 04:42 PM

bigdeal

quote:
Originally posted by sdy:
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

has a new display

Up to recently, the "confirmed cases" was close to the number of "active" cases because deaths and recovered were relatively small.

But now deaths and recovered are getting significant. An important stat is how many cases are "active".

The new display ( for NY ):

<CHART 1>

If you sum the three types in the chart, that sum is the number of confirmed cases

As time goes by, hopefully "recovered" will keep growing, and "active" will start dropping.

Once active starts dropping, we are past the peak.

For the United States :

<Chart 2>

Just a point of clarification (i.e. no a debate or argument on this post), those charts reflect a small percentage/dataset of the total population that has been tested. If there was a way to know the 'total' number of those infected with the virus, the numbers would likely look totally different (i.e. the number of those infected but asymptomatic and/or recovered would skyrocket).

And a question. Does the 'Blue' bars on the chart reflect only those who were hospitalized and recovered? I assume that is the case which shrinks the size of the recovered dataset substantially. I doubt anyone is tracking those who tested positive, where sent home to recover, and did.

April 06, 2020, 04:46 PM

sigfreund

quote:
Originally posted by chellim1:
[F]or better or worse, is a term that has made it into our lexicon.

There are innumerable examples of that sort of thing.
How much of the BS news media has stopped referring to this pandemic’s being due to “the” coronavirus as if there were only one even though there are hundreds? Once such terms become accepted in common usage, it’s impossible to rid ourselves of them.

April 06, 2020, 04:47 PM

bigdeal

quote:
Originally posted by chellim1:
quote:
Does it look like the modeler's are just pulling this out of their asses?

There is a saying - "All models are wrong. Some are useful." These look wrong, and approaching malfeasance.

Yes.
There is another saying - "Garbage in, garbage out."

Kinda reminds me of years ago when I was working as a senior analyst for a large super regional bank. I did three huge analyses and had each one of them shot down by the brass because they didn't like the results. How did I finally learn to get by this? I took the results they wanted and worked backward. Was what I eventually gave them worth the paper it was printed on. Nope, but its what they wanted. I suspect we're seeing a very similar phenomenon occurring with these models.

April 06, 2020, 04:59 PM

bigdeal

quote:
Originally posted by Skins2881:
Better the information, the better the confidence in a projection.

Just a clarification since I worked as a senior analyst for a number of years. Many times I had good bordering on great data on which to base my analyses, but management didn't like the results of my modeling. So in the end, they got what they wanted (most of the time being near garbage), because they wouldn't accept honest analysis. Personally, that's what I fear is occurring in the modeling for this virus.

April 06, 2020, 05:07 PM

kimber1911

Using Radio Tune-In on my Sonos in the garage.

Hannity was broadcasting President Trump and the COVID-19 Task Force briefing.
But now they aren’t.

Looked for it on National Public Radio but not playing there either.

What station broadcasts the briefings uninterrupted?

“We’re in a situation where we have put together, and you guys did it for our administration…President Obama’s administration before this. We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics,”
Pres. Select, Joe Biden

“Let’s go, Brandon” Kelli Stavast, 2 Oct. 2021

April 06, 2020, 05:10 PM

bigdeal

quote:
Originally posted by konata88:
quote:
Originally posted by sjtill:
Another pet peeve:
We shouldn’t be talking about social distancing; what we want is physical distancing but social intimacy—or at least social proximity.

I'd just as soon stop using any coined phrase starting with social. I hate these phashionable monikers.

And those in government using the phrase "the New Normal" referring to this social distancing BS obviously haven't met the majority of my neighbors. They 'are not' going to accept any such thing as this virus winds down.

April 06, 2020, 05:27 PM

sjtill

As promised, here is an update and expanded graph of new death by date per million population for states with cumulative deaths >100. The number of states has increased since the last graph, so it's difficult to follow lines of individual states; but one can clearly see that NY and NJ, as well as LA, appear to have peaked in new deaths. MI is still trending upward.

April 06, 2020, 05:31 PM

Keystoner

quote:
Originally posted by kimber1911:
Using Radio Tune-In on my Sonos in the garage.

Hannity was broadcasting President Trump and the COVID-19 Task Force briefing.
But now they aren’t.

What station broadcasts the briefings uninterrupted?

WLS AM890 out of Chicago always plays them in their entirety.

Warning: You do not want to accidentally catch any of Pritzker's and Lightfoot's press conferences.

April 06, 2020, 05:33 PM

triggertreat

Listening to the news briefing and OUR President isnt taking any crap from the media.

April 06, 2020, 05:36 PM

David Lee

quote:
Originally posted by sdy:
https://www.breitbart.com/poli...ntilators-right-now/

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said he was comfortable with the number of ventilators in his state during a Monday press conference on the coronavirus pandemic.

“We don’t need any additional ventilators right now,” Cuomo said to reporters.

“There is no hospital that needs ventilators that doesn’t have ventilators, there is no hospital that needs PPE (personal protective equipment) that doesn’t have it in the state system,” Cuomo said.

On Friday, Cuomo ordered the National Guard to acquire and move ventilators from hospitals around the state. On Saturday, Cuomo reported that China had donated 1,000 machines to New York, thanks to foundations set up by Alibaba founders Jack Ma and Joseph Tsai.

Cuomo also thanked states like Washington, Oregon, and California for releasing their own ventilators to help New York.

“That is the right attitude,” Cuomo said. “That’s the only way we do this as a nation, we’re going to have to be flexible.”

The New York governor asserted that even though the hospitals were at “red line” capacity, he felt that the state was successful in managing resources.

“Are we managing this situation that best that can be managed, yes, have we lost anyone who we could have saved, I don’t believe so,” he said.

The real credit is owed to a man called President Trump. You sux andy you liberal, rich baby nincapoop. You sux big time. I hope the virus eats your girly junk off.

April 06, 2020, 05:40 PM

Largefarva

quote:
Originally posted by Keystoner:
quote:
Originally posted by kimber1911:
Using Radio Tune-In on my Sonos in the garage.

Hannity was broadcasting President Trump and the COVID-19 Task Force briefing.
But now they aren’t.

What station broadcasts the briefings uninterrupted?

WLS AM890 out of Chicago always plays them in their entirety.

Warning: You do not want to accidentally catch any of Pritzker's and Lightfoot's press conferences.

The couple of Pritzker’s that I have caught consisted of him bitching about Trump for about 90% of the press conference...are they still like this? That guy pisses me off to no end...all he does is complain how everyone isn’t doing his job for him. Typical lazy asshole liberal.

April 06, 2020, 05:41 PM

XinTX

quote:
Humungous, who really gets a bad rap for his innovative and focused leadership style.

I ALMOST spit Scotch out my nose.

_______________________
“The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws.” Ayn Rand

“If we relinquish our rights because of fear, what is it exactly, then, we are fighting for?” Sen. Rand Paul

April 06, 2020, 05:48 PM

46and2

The Queen's speech was nice, I thought.

quote:
Originally posted by gearhounds:
Boris Johnson moved to intensive care at the advice of doctors as his condition worsens. Let’s hope he pulls through ok.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/w...news/amp/uk-52192604

Fuck. Boris needs to survive. He's too rare a man and politician over there.

April 06, 2020, 06:05 PM

kimber1911

Thanks Keystoner

I found C-Span.
It appears they play the Presidential addresses and briefings uninterrupted.

NPR needs to be defunded if they are not going to play Presidential addresses and briefings.
Seems like those Presidential briefings would be mandated to be broadcast by NPR regardless of political party.