If I'm interpreting the President's message correctly, we’re about to face a very difficult next few weeks and deaths are projected to skyrocket.

Is that a fair assessment?

quote:

Originally posted by Ronin1069:
If I'm interpreting the President's message correctly, we’re about to face a very difficult next few weeks and deaths are projected to skyrocket.

Is that a fair assessment?

That's what he said.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Mambo dogface to the banana patch.

Where's your handlers, Joe? Hiding again, are they?

Carlin

Regardless of what POTUS believes, he has to go along with the projections. Because if he doesn't and it's as bad or worse, it's his fault.

If it's far better, he has the ammo to say "hey, I was right and lets get back to work".

quote:

Originally posted by mark60:
Carlin

Martin

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
Thanks, Doc H.

+2

quote:

Originally posted by Ronin1069:
If I'm interpreting the President's message correctly, we’re about to face a very difficult next few weeks and deaths are projected to skyrocket.

Is that a fair assessment?

He said it's going to be a very difficult 2 weeks (maybe 3) as we approach the peak. Things are going to be much worse before they get better.

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
Uh Oh, FREDO Cuomo has got THE VIRUS!!!!!

Muthafucker! I KNEW I should have been more specific with my prayers! Shit!

Maybe Gabby Giffords should tell Joe it's 1 minute to Wapner time!!!

quote:

Originally posted by erj_pilot:

quote:

Originally posted by FishOn:
Recent data from the top ranked UW School of Medicine.


https://news.yahoo.com/us-viru...spite-161924116.html

Nope, no panic. Just analyzing the data. In fact, the Trump Admin is using this exact UW study, and quoted it in today's presser.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Just try to imagine ol' Dementia Joe "leading" such press conferences. Disaster.

It’s the things dreams (nightmares) are made from!

quote:

Originally posted by Keystoner:
Like this?

<iframe frameborder="0" height="408" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qH0xXwbPkgM" width="725"></iframe>

Good Lord.

Good Lord is right. He actually INTERRUPTED HIMSELF

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
Regardless of what POTUS believes, he has to go along with the projections. Because if he doesn't and it's as bad or worse, it's his fault.

If it's far better, he has the ammo to say "hey, I was right and lets get back to work".

Well, the media has essentially forced The President into a Catch-22 situation (Covid-22?). If he relaxed the restrictions according to his original timeline (which for the record I believe would be the right decision), then the media would just mercilessly hammer him on every single American death after that date. Just hammer him endlessly. However, by keeping these draconian measures in place, the economy continues to crater and has less and less of a chance of a robust recovery the longer we keep it going. Neither one of these scenarios is good for a president in an election year.

But President Trump always has a strategy, which is why now in every press conference, he is shoving these death numbers in the media's faces. Notice he repeats that million dead number now often. Those were the figures the media were originally throwing out there. Now instead of the media narrative of Trump causing tens of thousands of deaths, he's planting the idea that he's saved millions of American lives.

It's no wonder why the fake news wants to shut him up and not carry these daily briefings.

Having said all that...April 30th. We must have this country open by April 30th. We must. I pray the President gets us there and out of this damned scientific, dystopian dictatorship.

"a rough two weeks"

The data that was put up in the WH press brief today is from IHME Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

The particular chart used was the prediction for "deaths by day" for all of the U.S. The dotted line is "best estimate". The colored area around the dotted line shows the min and max estimate for each day.

Much of that early rise at the first part of April will be from the NY City Metro area.





The peak is predicted for 15 Apr 2020 w an estimate of 2,214 coronavirus deaths on that day.

I put up a plot from IHME earlier that was for Virginia. Right now Virginia is expected to have the latest peak in the nation. The Virginia peak is expected about 17 May 2020.

Well, all of this is difficult to fathom. Perhaps it's the slow-motion nature of this unfolding catastrophe that makes all this seem so surreal.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Well, all of this is difficult to fathom. Perhaps it's the slow-motion nature of this unfolding catastrophe that makes all this seem so surreal.

That this is unfolding in seeming slow motion is, I believe, an artifact of our modern interconnected world.

We have access to information almost as it is being developed, which leads people to expect things like this to happen with rapidity.

The fact is this is a global phenomena dependent on the growth of viruses in infected organisms. That takes time. Even the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs didn't kill them dead all over the planet in an instant. IIRC estimates are it took 1-3 years.

I certainly hope we aren't seeing 3,500 dead per day in the US as shown on that chart. But I recognize it is a possibility.

IHME provides both national predictions and state by state predictions.

http://www.healthdata.org/

here is a list for the predicted peak dates of highest resources needed (hospital beds, ventilators, etc)


Vermont: April 9
New York: April 9
New Jersey: April 9
Michigan: April 10
Connecticut: April 10
Louisiana: April 10
Idaho: April 12
Massachusetts: April 14
Iowa: April 15
Pennsylvania: April 15
Illinois: April 16
Oklahoma: April 17
Indiana: April 17
Colorado: April 17
Washington, DC: April 18
Rhode Island: April 19
Ohio: April 19
Delaware: April 20
Alabama: April 20
Arkansas: April 20
Nevada: April 20
Minnesota: April 21
Georgia: April 22
Mississippi: April 22
North Carolina: April 22
Arizona: April 24
South Carolina: April 24
Washington: April 24
Maine: April 25
Tennessee: April 26
California: April 26
Wisconsin: April 26
Utah: April 27
Kansas: April 28
New Hampshire: April 30
New Mexico: April 30
Alaska: April 30
Hawaii: April 30
Nebraska: April 30
Montana: April 30
West Virginia: May 1
North Dakota: May 1
South Dakota: May 1
Wyoming: May 1
Texas: May 2
Oregon: May 3
Florida: May 3
Missouri: May 11
Kentucky: May 12
Maryland: May 14
Virginia: May 17

Of course this is only a model and there is much unknown and "best estimates" are being used for a lot of the model parameters.

I understand that they are extrapolating the available data, but I just don't see how they can be so precise, down to the day.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:

quote:

Originally posted by mark60:
Carlin

Martin

Shit....that's right I'm wrong but you knew that already.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Well, all of this is difficult to fathom. Perhaps it's the slow-motion nature of this unfolding catastrophe that makes all this seem so surreal.

I think that's a large part of it, and "surreal" is exactly the term I have been using in conversations for a few weeks now. But I would add the factor that nothing remotely like this--and I mean both the disease and the accompanying responses and collateral results, worldwide-- has happened before in our lifetimes. And yet it is actually happening now.