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Originally posted by Keystoner:

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Originally posted by bubbatime:
200,000 deaths is a very reasonable best case guess. 2 million is a very reasonable worst case guess.

Do you think they just pull numbers out of thin air? Or is there a hundred years of epidemiology knowledge that they use to make best guestimations.

I love the way this guy claims the authority to proclaim the estimate is reasonable, like he has intimate knowledge of the junk that was assumed in the model, like the British model that was revised down from 500,000 to 20,000. Which one of those numbers is reasonable, Bubba? I'd feel much more comfortable with your blessing.

About as interesting as you having the authority to claim they are not. Oh and on the 500k to 20k change, did you read the link in the article that went to another article that linked to what the what actually said? Yeah, you might want to do that before throwing around those numbers.

These unelected (and in some cases, elected) officials suffer no consequences for being wrong or the havoc the create. None. I have long opined that all government officials-politicians, police, fire, law enforcement must be required to pay from their own pockets a version of “malpractice” insurance to cover their misdeeds.

In this situation, I’m not sure it would help...how would killing the United States’ economy be a covered event? Who would have purchased a $2,000,000,000,000.00 policy?

For a moment, can we focus on the other side of the coin? How are your families doing? Do you know anyone personally that has been confirmed infected? Are you using this time at home to enjoy your loved ones? As painful and ridiculous as this "pandemic" has been blown out to be, you can still make the best of it.

I know personally know of one infected case. She spent 4 days in the hospital and was released. I've used the time to enjoy my kids and hang out outside, despite the pollen. Work wise, I'm not sure how long I'll keep my job because my company was already very soft from poor management, but I'm keeping busy and doing what I can. I've been cooking my butt off which has been extremely enjoyable.

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Originally posted by trapper189:

Plus there's graphs in the report:

trapper189, thanks for sharing the Florida link and this chart. Unfortunately, their chart is a bit flawed in that it leaves off the recovered, as you noted, and a little misleading in that the percentages next to deaths don't represent the fatality rate but the percentage of total deaths by age category for the Florida cases. While it will vary with the patients' conditions, of course, and maybe living conditions (such as the population density of New York), adding a column for percentage of fatalities of cases within each age group should give us some idea of how deadly it is by respective age group assuming there are no such special considerations for those who contract the virus:

Age Group Approx. Fatality Rate
0-4 years -- 0%
5-14 years -- 0%
15-24 years -- 0%
25-34 years -- 0%
35-44 years -- 0.25%
45-54 years -- 0.25%
55-64 years -- 0.5%
65-74 years -- 2.5%
75-84 years -- 6.0%
85+ years -- 8.9%

Unfortunately, many people as they age develop one or more underlying conditions and the percentage chance of the illness being fatal thereby goes up with age, just as we'd expect. How many of these older individuals would have succumbed to some other illness during this year is unknown, but according to Dr. Alexander Smith, at age 85, the average remaining life expectancy for Americans is six years. An 85-year-old has a 75 percent chance of living another three years, but only a one in four chance of surviving for 10.

https://newoldage.blogs.nytime...n-diagnosis-old-age/

The article is from 2011 but the fatality rates in the chart for older individuals don't appear to require him to alter his predictions significantly.

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Originally posted by Veeper:
"complications caused by COVID-19".

Sure seems like these healthcare professionals are too focused on Covid-19 to diagnose and treat other ailments such as pneumonia and flu that when added on top of COPD and high blood pressure end up killing folks. They were too busy looking for something else to treat what they actually had...you know, like it was too complicated to check for COVID-19 AND the other shit. I think Benny6 is a rare example of getting tested for numerous things to rule out other stuff, the normal way most hospitals are treating this is to simply triage out most patients and ignore testing for anything. Another scenario is that they had really bad cases of something else (flu, cancer, COPD, and such) but during autopsy tested positive for COVID-19 and regardless of whether or not that was what caused the death, they announce that it was due to complications from COVID-19.

Well in our little town of 1200 in the middle of nowhere we have 3 cases. 48 and 46 year old women and a 50 year old man the man is now in the hospital breathing difficulties. Don't know his health history. Lyndon, KS 25 miles south of Topeka.

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Originally posted by SIG4EVA:
For a moment, can we focus on the other side of the coin? How are your families doing? Do you know anyone personally that has been confirmed infected? Are you using this time at home to enjoy your loved ones? As painful and ridiculous as this "pandemic" has been blown out to be, you can still make the best of it.

I know personally know of one infected case. She spent 4 days in the hospital and was released. I've used the time to enjoy my kids and hang out outside, despite the pollen. Work wise, I'm not sure how long I'll keep my job because my company was already very soft from poor management, but I'm keeping busy and doing what I can. I've been cooking my butt off which has been extremely enjoyable.

Vast majority of Ohio's 88 counties have confirmed cases. My county (Hardin) has yet to record one. Obviously it's just a matter of time or there's already been a bookkeeping error. No testing facilities here yet so maybe one of "us" got logged in one of the surrounding counties that have testing in the larger towns' hospitals. And I have no friends or relatives elsewhere that have been infected. There, that's a positive post.

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Obviously it's just a matter of time or there's already been a bookkeeping error.

There seems to be a definite lag in reporting. In my area the local hospital was reporting cases several days before the CDC and State updated the numbers.

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Originally posted by thunderson:

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Obviously it's just a matter of time or there's already been a bookkeeping error.

There seems to be a definite lag in reporting. In my area the local hospital was reporting cases several days before the CDC and State updated the numbers.

We have 6 adjoining counties. Only one of those has a smaller population than us. Low to high we are 17th of 88 counties by population and 57th by area. Social distancing a little easier.

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Originally posted by mutedblade:


Sure seems like these healthcare professionals are too focused on Covid-19 to diagnose and treat other ailments such as pneumonia and flu that when added on top of COPD and high blood pressure end up killing folks. They were too busy looking for something else to treat what they actually had...you know, like it was too complicated to check for COVID-19 AND the other shit. I think Benny6 is a rare example of getting tested for numerous things to rule out other stuff, the normal way most hospitals are treating this is to simply triage out most patients and ignore testing for anything. Another scenario is that they had really bad cases of something else (flu, cancer, COPD, and such) but during autopsy tested positive for COVID-19 and regardless of whether or not that was what caused the death, they announce that it was due to complications from COVID-19.

Most are testing for influenza prior dependent on symptoms.

And there really has been a clamoring for the opposite of what you claim, that any death with positive be listed as a covid19 death. This is not currently happening. Now the media on the other hand...

The fractal growth seems to be flattening which is good. It’s the firs sign of the Ro going down.

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Originally posted by was0311:
About as interesting as you having the authority to claim they are not. Oh and on the 500k to 20k change, did you read the link in the article that went to another article that linked to what the what actually said? Yeah, you might want to do that before throwing around those numbers.

What's wrong with some of you guys? It's as if you want 200,000 Americans to be dead, just so you can be right. Think about what you're doing. You're behaving as if you're defending some sort of truth, when, in fact, there's no truth yet to be had in this respect. It's all projections/speculation, but you are defending those outrageous numbers. That's just fucking weird. It's like rooting for the Axis powers in WWII.

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Originally posted by StarTraveler:
While it will vary with the patients' conditions, of course, and maybe living conditions (such as the population density of New York), adding a column for percentage of fatalities of cases within each age group should give us some idea of how deadly it is by respective age group assuming there are no such special considerations for those who contract the virus:

The problem is the number of deaths lags behind the number of cases detected. In other words, there's a period of time that happens between when a person tests positive and when they recover or die. It would be better to use use the number of cases detected as of the date the folks that died were detected.

That report does contain information on each individual case detected as well as each death. It could be parsed and put into.spreadsheet.

For the last few days, Florida has been testing about 7,500 people a day, which seems odd. I'd expect to see the number of test conducted to increase every day.

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Originally posted by parabellum:
What's wrong with some of you guys? It's as if you want 200,000 Americans to be dead, just so you can be right. Think about what you're doing. You're behaving as if you're defending some sort of truth, when, in fact, there's no truth yet to be had in this respect. It's all projections/speculation, but you are defending those outrageous numbers. That's just fucking weird. It's like rooting for the Axis powers in WWII.

If these numbers played out, I fully expect high fives all around for those who were "right".

Everyone thinks they are right about something they know nothing about. They are convinced they are right to the point of acting like an asshole to other people.
The guys doing this are as ridiculous as the climate change and gun control supporters.

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Originally posted by 2000Z-71:
I've just got to say the no visitors policy at the hospital right now is an absolute godsend!

I've been enjoying the no backup commutes. Nice to be able to do 55 mph or more on the highways during morning and afternoon commute times.

I'm curious about something. As far as I know, there are no "State" hospitals. They are all privately owned/operated or like here in Michigan, part of huge corporations.

Why is my Governor buying medical supplies for private hospitals? Why is she negotiating with vendors? Isn't that the responsibility of the purchasing/procurement department of the hospital or healthcare network?

Granted, negotiation with FEMA and Fed for stockpiled resources is probably what the Governor should be focusing on. but why does it sound like the governor and all of these states are suddenly the purchasing department for every hospital?

"Brooks Brothers to make up to 150K surgical masks per day." CNBC 3/31/20

That's more than GM. I feel better now.

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Originally posted by parabellum:
What's wrong with some of you guys? It's as if you want 200,000 Americans to be dead, just so you can be right. Think about what you're doing. You're behaving as if you're defending some sort of truth, when, in fact, there's no truth yet to be had in this respect. It's all projections/speculation, but you are defending those outrageous numbers. That's just fucking weird. It's like rooting for the Axis powers in WWII.

I doubt anyone here wants a lot of people to die from this. I certainly don't. But ignoring something doesn't make it go away, it just means you can't make any plans to deal with it.

Epidemiology is an actual science. The projections an (honest) epidemiologist makes are not just random numbers pulled out of thin air, they are based on mathematical models that have been developed based on past observations of epidemics. Those mathematical models rely on a number of statistical values that have been estimated from observations of this pandemic. There is absolutely uncertainty in those statistical values (and they also change over time), and as in any field of science, epidemiologists attempt to quantify the possible error in those statistical values. Based on those statistical error ranges, they generate a range of estimates of outcomes. There's more going on there than someone just saying "well, hell, what do I think is the scariest number I can get people to believe."

To continue your WWII analogy, prior to the attack on Pearl Harbor, we didn't just sit on our collective asses and do nothing and assume war would never reach us (despite a lot of Americans thinking that was exactly what we should do), we started making preparations.

This is not an argument about WHAT we should be doing about coronavirus, just that ignoring the possibility it's a real problem means you don't do ANYTHING.

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Originally posted by Rightwire:
I'm curious about something. As far as I know, there are no "State" hospitals. They are all privately owned/operated or like here in Michigan, part of huge corporations.

Why is my Governor buying medical supplies for private hospitals? Why is she negotiating with vendors? Isn't that the responsibility of the purchasing/procurement department of the hospital or healthcare network?

Granted, negotiation with FEMA and Fed for stockpiled resources is probably what the Governor should be focusing on. but why does it sound like the governor and all of these states are suddenly the purchasing department for every hospital?

I don't know how it works in Michigan, but in Texas, there are county hospitals that are owned and operated by the government, e.g., the Harris Health System (previously Harris County Hospital District) hospitals in Harris County (the county containing Houston).