You misspelled Juicy.

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:
Yeah, as I just noted in passing on the healthcare thread I started, we have about 28,000 ICU beds nationally over here, which are currently occupied to 79 percent capacity while we have very few critical COVID cases (the counter at Worldometer has been stuck at two for some days, though I find that a little hard to believe). Which means about 5,900 are free; let's be generous and say 6,000. Assuming that five percent of all cases will need ICU care, demand by other patients will stay the same and there's no capacity increase (though there are plans for that), that means we can afford no more than 120,000 acute infections at any time. And we have gone from 9,300 to 19,600 over the last three days. At this rate, we will be over the threshold in a week.

Well this was nine days ago, and thankfully the various measures seem to have slowed the growth of active cases to the point where they double only every five-and-a-half rather than three or less days. Of course they are still growing towards my calculated threshold of 120,000, though in fact only about 2,000 of 54,000 are currently listed as critical - so 3.7 rather than five percent. Let's say four, and the threshold rises to 150,000 cases the German healthcare system can handle at any point in time.

This theoretically leaves ressources for 96,000 additional cases before we, too, are faced with chosing between patients to give ICU beds. Assuming an average staying time of 14 days in intensive care, this means we could sustain a rate of about 6,800 new infections per day indefinitely. The good news is that so far the peak was a little over 6,900 three days ago - though the lower numbers since then may be because of less testing and reporting on the weekend.

The problem of course is that keeping numbers below that level also requires sustaining the current restrictions until a cure or vaccine is found; though they might be relaxed if daily numbers really drop. The current suggestion is to do that not before case doubling rate is down to ten days.

Meanwhile CFR in Italy is literally up to eleven. However, there's a silver lining as their rate of new cases also peaked nine days ago at a little over 6,500 and has been generally dropping since.

US - 2,616 : 145,531 = 1.8 %

Italy - 11,591 : 101,739 = 11.4 %

Spain - 7,340 : 85,195 = 8.6 %

Germany - 560 : 63,929 = 0.9 %

France - 2,606 : 40,174 = 6.5 %

UK - 1,404 : 22,141 = 6.3 %

Switzerland - 348 : 15,760 = 2.2 %

Belgium - 513 : 11,899 = 4.3 %

Netherlands - 864 : 11,750 = 7.4 %

Turkey - 168 : 10,827 = 1.6 %

South Korea - 158 : 9,661 = 1.6 %

Austria - 108 : 9,520 = 1.1 %

[Canada, Portugal, Norway, Brazil, Israel, Australia]

Sweden - 146 : 4,028 = 3.6 %

those percentages mean nothing as widespread testing is generally not being conducted

plus testing protocols vary from country to country so there is no way to compare accurately

demographics matter too. Italy has an 'old' population. South Korea in comparison does not.

we all want to fall back on statistics for 'good information' but in this situation - currently - the numbers are haphazard at best

---------------------------------------------

predictions from

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington.

http://www.healthdata.org/


For NY,

Peak resource use will be 9 Apr 2020

Peak Resources predicted to be needed:

hospital beds 71,574

ICU beds 11,070

Ventilators 8,855

These projections are lower than what Cuomo projected on 24 Mar 2020

Total deaths projected for NY : 15,546 (projected thru 4 Aug 2020)

(NY deaths right now at 1026)

Two doctors have said that for people who go on the ventilators, about half die.

My first thought when reading the article was...”I wonder if PHPaul was involved...?”

quote:

Originally posted by Georgeair:
Armed vigilantes blocked a neighbor's driveway with a tree to force him into quarantine

Folks are losing their minds.

Well the dude was from Noo Joisey, shoulda probably blocked him in long ago...

quote:

Originally posted by smlsig:
My first thought when reading the article was...”I wonder if PHPaul was involved...?”

Thought the same, but no mention of a bulldozer...

quote:

Originally posted by sdy:
predictions from

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington.

http://www.healthdata.org/


For NY,

Peak resource use will be 9 Apr 2020

Peak Resources predicted to be needed:

hospital beds 71,574

ICU beds 11,070

Ventilators 8,855

These projections are lower than what Cuomo projected on 24 Mar 2020

Total deaths projected for NY : 15,546 (projected thru 4 Aug 2020)

(NY deaths right now at 1026)

Two doctors have said that for people who go on the ventilators, about half die.

I looked at this for Texas and they project:

peak bed occurs May 2nd with existing restrictions

we have enough beds and ventilators

Thanks for posting.

---

Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity

DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.

quote:

Originally posted by tatortodd:
I looked at this for Texas and they project:

peak bed occurs May 2nd with existing restrictions

we have enough beds and ventilators

Thanks for posting.

Good info.

Seattle, Wash. sees slowdown in COVID-19 cases

OAN Newsroom
UPDATED 6:42 AM PT — Monday, March 30, 2020

According to a new report, the number of coronavirus cases in Seattle, Washington has decelerated as a result of the state’s containment efforts.

An article published in The New York Times Sunday claimed the Seattle-area, which was the location of the first known COVID-19 case in the U.S., has shown a significant slowdown in the spread of the virus. That’s according to data from the Institute for Disease Modeling, which is a private research group that has been monitoring the outbreak as it progresses.

Its data showed that in early March each infected person in the state was spreading the virus to an average of 2.7 other people. Following recently enacted guidelines and the statewide stay-at-home order, however, that number has dropped to less than 1.4 people.

During a recent press conference, Gov. Jay Inslee also touched on how strict containment strategies enacted during the early days of the outbreak are now beginning to pay off.

“We know that this is still a dire challenge, we know this is a fateful disease, we know that we have not turned the corner and we are not even close to the end of this battle, but we do think there is some evidence that our community mitigation strategies — the things we’ve done already to close schools, close restaurants and theaters, to prohibit gatherings — we think these things have been able to slow the rate of increase,” Gov. Inslee stated.
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While officials said overall progress against the virus is still being analyzed, they also added that expansive social distancing policies will remain a key part of daily life for residents in Seattle for weeks to come.

Link

quote:

Originally posted by Dzozer:

“...but we do think there is some evidence that our community mitigation strategies — the things we’ve done already to close schools, close restaurants and theaters, to prohibit gatherings — we think these things have been able to slow the rate of increase,” Gov. Inslee stated.

You think, eh?

Simpleton.

quote:

Originally posted by Georgeair:
Armed vigilantes blocked a neighbor's driveway with a tree to force him into quarantine

Folks are losing their minds.

State rep quoted from the article:

"Except for in the most extreme circumstances, we do not have the authority to control the movement of US citizens within our borders, and frankly, I'm concerned about the number of people who are eager to hand their rights over to the government."

Boss

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by Dzozer:
“...but we do think there is some evidence that our community mitigation strategies — the things we’ve done already to close schools, close restaurants and theaters, to prohibit gatherings — we think these things have been able to slow the rate of increase,” Gov. Inslee stated.

You think, eh?
Simpleton.

So, Balzé, what do you think slows the rate of increase? If not keeping people apart or 'social distancing'?

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by Dzozer:

“...but we do think there is some evidence that our community mitigation strategies — the things we’ve done already to close schools, close restaurants and theaters, to prohibit gatherings — we think these things have been able to slow the rate of increase,” Gov. Inslee stated.

You think, eh?

Simpleton.

Ambiguous response. Do you not agree that social distancing measures slows the rapid rise in infection rates or do you believe it stupidly obvious they do?

Two things that are pissing me off - I know we have the data but it's not being shared:

1) County specific data. In a large state, it's not good enough to say there are 1000 cases. I want to know prevalence by county - # of cases in each county.

2) Severity -- I ready an article where they found a handful of new cases. But they said that the symptoms were mild and each person fully recovered. So, out of 1000 cases, how many are severe vs moderate vs mild?

IOW, how likely is it that I'm going to get it based on where I am. And if I get it, how likely is it that it will be mild/moderate (basically just like catching they typical cold/flu annually) vs something severe?

The data seems like it would be available. Just not being released to stir the panic?

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by Dzozer:
“...but we do think there is some evidence that our community mitigation strategies — the things we’ve done already to close schools, close restaurants and theaters, to prohibit gatherings — we think these things have been able to slow the rate of increase,” Gov. Inslee stated.

You think, eh?
Simpleton.

So, Balzé, what do you think slows the rate of increase? If not keeping people apart or 'social distancing'?

I was simply saying that he's stating the blatantly obvious.

Of course closing schools, closing restaurants, shutting down the entire economy would slow the spread of the Wuhan. The spread of every single disease on the entire planet has been slowed down in the past three weeks. Who the hell would think otherwise?

quote:

1) County specific data. In a large state, it's not good enough to say there are 1000 cases. I want to know prevalence by county - # of cases in each county.

Check your state Dept. of Health site. We do have that piece at least in MS.

Link to MSDH

quote:

Originally posted by Georgeair:

quote:

1) County specific data. In a large state, it's not good enough to say there are 1000 cases. I want to know prevalence by county - # of cases in each county.

Check your state Dept. of Health site. We do have that piece at least in MS.

Link to MSDH

Thanks. Yes checked. They have county presence but no additional granularity. Presence could be 1 case or 1000 cases. MS seems smarter. And that data seems to show gradients expanding from dense metro centers as one might expect.

Just curious - why is gender being tracked? Is that typical? Do we expect some sort of gender based bias?

quote:

MS seems smarter.

Said nobody ever.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

provides county data

when it first comes up, there is a map of the U.S.

click on your state

then scroll over the counties

it displays confirmed and deaths

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
The spread of every single disease on the entire planet has been slowed down in the past three weeks.

The clap?