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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)

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https://sigforum.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/320601935/m/9320007564

March 24, 2020, 07:59 PM
TAllen01
When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
quote:
Originally posted by jljones:
The most interesting claim in the article is that most people experience minor flu like symptoms of this not the flu.

Totally worth it.


I know, right? Let grandma and grandpa die, and anyone with any heart or lung condition, because I might make $1,000 less this year.
March 24, 2020, 08:03 PM
TAllen01
quote:
Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
quote:
Originally posted by TAllen01:

Yet so many people are calling for the stay-in-place orders to be lifted. We are nowhere near there yet.


Yes, we are there now. Stop this bullshit now.


I assume you have a doctorate? Like in medicine, epidemiology or infectious diseases? Because you keep dimsissing the opinions of learned professionals. (I'm not one either, just noting that you dismiss the recommendations of public health experts, so I am trying to determine your basis for doing so).
March 24, 2020, 08:10 PM
dave7378
quote:
Originally posted by TAllen01:
quote:
Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
quote:
Originally posted by TAllen01:

Yet so many people are calling for the stay-in-place orders to be lifted. We are nowhere near there yet.


Yes, we are there now. Stop this bullshit now.


I assume you have a doctorate? Like in medicine, epidemiology or infectious diseases? Because you keep dimsissing the opinions of learned professionals. (I'm not one either, just noting that you dismiss the recommendations of public health experts, so I am trying to determine your basis for doing so).


Good Lord. Spare me the drama but by all means keep listening to the "experts". You probably have a doctorate in picking the right experts.


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ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
March 24, 2020, 08:16 PM
sdy
https://www.washingtonpost.com...e3fbd85b5_story.html

The coronavirus is not mutating significantly as it circulates through the human population, according to scientists who are closely studying the novel pathogen’s genetic code. That relative stability suggests the virus is less likely to become more or less dangerous as it spreads, and represents encouraging news for researchers hoping to create a long-lasting vaccine.

All viruses evolve over time, accumulating mutations as they replicate imperfectly inside a host’s cells in tremendous numbers and then spread through a population, with some of those mutations persisting through natural selection. The new coronavirus has proofreading machinery, however, and that reduces the “error rate” and the pace of mutation. It looks pretty much the same everywhere it has appeared, the scientists say, and there is no evidence that some strains are deadlier than others.

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease covid-19, is similar to coronaviruses that circulate naturally in bats. It jumped into the human species last year in Wuhan, China, probably through an intermediate species — possibly a pangolin, an endangered anteater whose scales are trafficked for traditional medicine.

Scientists now are studying more than 1,000 different samples of the virus, Peter Thielen, a molecular geneticist at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory who has been studying the virus, told The Washington Post.

There are only about four to 10 genetic differences between the strains that have infected people in the United States and the original virus that spread in Wuhan, he said.

“That’s a relatively small number of mutations for having passed through a large number of people,” Thielen said. “At this point, the mutation rate of the virus would suggest that the vaccine developed for SARS-CoV-2 would be a single vaccine, rather than a new vaccine every year like the flu vaccine.”

It would be more like the measles or chickenpox vaccines, he said — something that would likely confer immunity for a long time.

“I would expect a vaccine for coronavirus would have a similar profile to those vaccines. It’s great news,” Thielen said.

Several vaccines against covid-19 are in development, but experts estimate it will be at least a year to 18 months before one becomes available.

Two other virologists, Stanley Perlman of the University of Iowa and Benjamin Neuman of Texas A&M University at Texarkana, both of whom were on the international committee that named the coronavirus, told The Post that the virus appears relatively stable.

“The virus has not mutated to any significant extent,” Perlman said.

“Just one ‘pretty bad’ strain for everybody so far. If it’s still around in a year, by that point we might have some diversity,” Neuman said.

Neuman contrasted the coronavirus with influenza, which is notoriously slippery.

“Flu does have one trick up its sleeve that coronaviruses do not have — the flu virus genome is broken up into several segments, each of which codes for a gene. When two flu viruses are in the same cell, they can swap some segments, potentially creating a new combination instantly — this is how the H1N1 ‘swine’ flu originated,” Neuman said.

It is possible that a small mutation in the virus could have outsize effects in the clinical outcome of covid-19, the experts say. That has been known to happen with other viruses. But there’s no sign this is happening with the novel coronavirus.

The dramatic death rates in Italy, for example, are most likely due to situational factors — an older population, hospitals being overwhelmed, shortages of ventilators and the resulting rationing of lifesaving care — rather than some difference in the pathogen itself.

“So far, we don’t have any evidence linking a specific virus [strain] to any disease severity score,” Thielen said. “Right now, disease severity is much more likely to be driven by other factors.”

Although one team of scientists earlier this year suggested there might be two distinct strains of the virus with different levels of typical disease severity, that conjecture has not been embraced by the scientific community.
March 24, 2020, 08:16 PM
Rev. A. J. Forsyth
quote:
So why doesn’t grandma and grandpa, or anyone with a heart or lung condition just stay home and be responsible? Nah, that’s crazy talk. We must strip Rights from everyone else to save grandma and grandpa. If it saves one life.........



March 24, 2020, 08:29 PM
TAllen01
quote:
Originally posted by Rev. A. J. Forsyth:
[QUOTE]So why doesn’t grandma and grandpa, or anyone with a heart or lung condition just stay home and be responsible? Nah, that’s crazy talk. We must strip Rights from everyone else to save grandma and grandpa. If it saves one life.........


Why don't we all just go on spring break, or to Mardi Gras, or to any other gathering, and then bring it home to grandma and grandpa who have been safely and conscientiously staying at home? I mean, they're old, who cares, amiright?
March 24, 2020, 08:31 PM
TAllen01
quote:


Good Lord. Spare me the drama but by all means keep listening to the "experts". You probably have a doctorate in picking the right experts.


Actually, I do.
March 24, 2020, 08:36 PM
jljones
quote:
Originally posted by TAllen01:
quote:
Originally posted by Rev. A. J. Forsyth:
[QUOTE]So why doesn’t grandma and grandpa, or anyone with a heart or lung condition just stay home and be responsible? Nah, that’s crazy talk. We must strip Rights from everyone else to save grandma and grandpa. If it saves one life.........


Why don't we all just go on spring break, or to Mardi Gras, or to any other gathering, and then bring it home to grandma and grandpa who have been safely and conscientiously staying at home? I mean, they're old, who cares, amiright?


I deleted that post because people that willingly give up their freedom will gladly give up everyone else’s. No sense in trying to reason with those who support tyranny. If it saves one life and whatnot.




www.opspectraining.com

"It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it works out for them"



March 24, 2020, 08:38 PM
PASig
I got yelled at last night by a friend because I sent him a pic of the special letter I need to carry with me from work (defense contractor) when I go in on Wednesdays (can’t do a certain thing from home due to gov security).

Told him “look at the letter I have to carry in case the PA State Gestapo pulls me over and demands to see my papers!“, he went off on me: “Don’t you know, there’s millions of people going to die soon, you aren’t taking this seriously are you!”

Yeah yeah, STFU already. Getting tired of all these Chicken Littles running around in a sheer freaking panic.

Yes, it’s no joke but millions dead? Turn off CNN already, dude. Roll Eyes


March 24, 2020, 08:45 PM
TAllen01
quote:
Originally posted by jljones:
I deleted that post because people that willingly give up their freedom will gladly give up everyone else’s. No sense in trying to reason with those who support tyranny. If it saves one life and whatnot.


Good call. And I agree re no sense in trying to reason with those (who would sacrifice others' lives to save their own).
March 24, 2020, 08:46 PM
jljones
quote:
Originally posted by TAllen01:
quote:
Originally posted by jljones:
I deleted that post because people that willingly give up their freedom will gladly give up everyone else’s. No sense in trying to reason with those who support tyranny. If it saves one life and whatnot.


Good call. And I agree re no sense in trying to reason with those (who would sacrifice others' lives to save their own).


The gun grabbers agree with you. If it saves one life it’s worth the Rights of many.




www.opspectraining.com

"It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it works out for them"



March 24, 2020, 08:48 PM
Rev. A. J. Forsyth
quote:
I deleted that post because people that willingly give up their freedom will gladly give up everyone else’s. No sense in trying to reason with those who support tyranny. If it saves one life and whatnot.


I was agreeing with you man. The world needs a herd culler. This probably isn't it, but 7.5 billion people is too damn many. Nature will find a way.
March 24, 2020, 08:50 PM
Oat_Action_Man
quote:
Originally posted by TAllen01:
quote:


Good Lord. Spare me the drama but by all means keep listening to the "experts". You probably have a doctorate in picking the right experts.


Actually, I do.


I do too. But mine is in a totally unrelated field, ergo I won't weigh in on anything technical in this topic.

What's your doctorate in, that makes you an expert in choosing expert?


----------------------------

Chuck Norris put the laughter in "manslaughter"

Educating the youth of America, one declension at a time.
March 24, 2020, 08:53 PM
jljones
quote:
Originally posted by Rev. A. J. Forsyth:
quote:
I deleted that post because people that willingly give up their freedom will gladly give up everyone else’s. No sense in trying to reason with those who support tyranny. If it saves one life and whatnot.


I was agreeing with you man. The world needs a herd culler. This probably isn't it, but 7.5 billion people is too damn many. Nature will find a way.


LOL. Sorry on my end. I just brought it up so you didn’t take the fall for posting such “hate speech” thinking that tyranny was wrong after I deleted my post. Smile

It’s all good man!




www.opspectraining.com

"It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it works out for them"



March 24, 2020, 08:59 PM
dave7378
quote:
Originally posted by Oat_Action_Man:
quote:
Originally posted by TAllen01:
quote:


Good Lord. Spare me the drama but by all means keep listening to the "experts". You probably have a doctorate in picking the right experts.


Actually, I do.


I do too. But mine is in a totally unrelated field, ergo I won't weigh in on anything technical in this topic.

What's your doctorate in, that makes you an expert in choosing expert?


Yes, inquiring minds want to know. Shine a light on the unknowing.


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ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
March 24, 2020, 09:22 PM
tatortodd
In Texas, each county has a County Judge and one of his/her duties is head of emergency management for their county. Two things of interest have been appearing his FB posts the last 2 days:
  • The backlog of tests sent in but results not back is 5x to 6x larger than the number of people who have it. Backlog is 5 to 6 days which is about the amount of time someone goes from initial symptoms to hospitalized. They're only testing people with symptoms so our number may spike when the backlog gets processed..
  • In my county the majority of tests are being conducted in private labs (i.e. not State labs) and they are only reporting positives (i.e. not reporting back total tested). This is throwing off data such as tests per million people, ratio of positive to negative tests, etc.



  • Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity

    DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.
    March 24, 2020, 09:40 PM
    doublesharp
    I'm in S Indiana and can see Kentucky from my window. 12 deaths in Indiana and they are burying the number in Ky. 3/23/20, 3 were dead statewide. Death is sad but part of living. Absolutely insane to close down these two states simply due to fear.

    Beshear is a lefty TDS bastard as Ky governor and Indiana's Eric Holcomb is just a good hearted pussy. Should have been a preacher no way he cuts it as governor but he rode Pence's coattails.


    ________________________
    God spelled backwards is dog
    March 24, 2020, 09:57 PM
    jljones
    quote:
    Originally posted by doublesharp:
    I'm in S Indiana and can see Kentucky from my window. 12 deaths in Indiana and they are burying the number in Ky. 3/23/20, 3 were dead statewide. Death is sad but part of living. Absolutely insane to close down these two states simply due to fear.

    Beshear is a lefty TDS bastard as Ky governor and Indiana's Eric Holcomb is just a good hearted pussy. Should have been a preacher no way he cuts it as governor but he rode Pence's coattails.


    Very true. Lil Andy is evil. And the lemmings are chanting “go Andy!” As they go over the cliff.




    www.opspectraining.com

    "It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it works out for them"



    March 24, 2020, 10:00 PM
    ensigmatic
    Why do many of y'all insist on arguing "losing a few old/infirm people ain't worth the economic hit" when that is not the point of the restrictions? As has been explained repeatedly, both here and in the press conferences: The purpose is to slow the infection rates in hopes of avoiding overwhelming health care systems while the government and medical community seek to get a handle on this thing.

    As an aside, btw: In Detroit, 43 and 38 year old men with no underlying health conditions died today of complications resulting from C19 infections.



    "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
    "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
    March 24, 2020, 10:06 PM
    r0gue
    Update: Testing started here just 1 week ago. We had a few confirmed cases from testing late last week, sent home to isolate and hopefully recover.

    Our first CV patient admitted just two days ago (Sunday). As of earlier today (Tuesday) a total of 12 people have already been admitted to the hospital with either confirmed or suspected coronavirus symptoms. This includes three patients currently in the hospital’s intensive care unit.

    I'm praying it doesn't outpace our ICU capacity. We were able to expanded it some in the weeks leading up to this point. I am so incredibly proud of my health system.

    Regardless of what anyone believes about this virus,.. Regardless of what one day turns out to be proven as true or false, .. This is a very scary time to be a healthcare worker. Nurses, Doctors and a myriad of clinical and support staff have been at war for weeks before the first patient arrived, and for many the battle is only now starting to escalate. The stress and anxiety is like nothing I've ever experienced. All of the cumulative stressors we're all going through, plus the responsibility to fight this virus and care for our patients. I spent most of the evening debating my own symptoms that are coming on. I'm pretty sure it's just an anxiety attack.