I’ll just come out and say it. I’m waiting for a few of us to report in with it. Then I think we’ll get an honest assessment of severity and recovery.

I don’t wish it on anyone, but 80,000 members across the country is a pretty good sample size.

Stay safe.

Edit: apologies if I offended anyone.

quote:

Originally posted by 46and2:

quote:

Originally posted by clubleaf206:
The governor of Kansas just announced that all K-12 schools will be closed for the rest of the year. (!) That includes private schooks.

What? That seems, well, excessive.

That's the rest of the school year, right?

quote:

Originally posted by DLC762:
Thankfully the restaurants/bars in WV are still open.

I've got some bad news for you....

CHARLESTON, W.Va. (AP) — All 50 U.S. states now have confirmed cases of the new coronavirus as West Virginia's governor announced the first positive test in his state on Tuesday evening.
Gov. Jim Justice said the person with the virus is in the state's Eastern Panhandle, a region close to Washington, D.C., though he didn't disclose the county where it was reported.
Justice used a televised address to announce new restrictions, ordering bars, restaurants and casinos to close with the except of carry-out food services. He did not address delivery services.
"This is real and it's really concerning," the governor said.

quote:

Originally posted by sigalert:
I’ll just come out and say it. I’m waiting for a few of us to report in with it. Then I think we’ll get an honest assessment of severity and recovery.

I don’t wish it on anyone, but 80,000 members across the country is a pretty good sample size.

Stay safe.

Edit: apologies if I offended anyone.

Not offended. And I'm borderline for being at high risk (asthma, a bit overweight, prediabetic, 60+). It's the folks about 20 years older than myself I'm concerned for.

Given the observed transmissibility is higher than the flu, and the observed mortality rates among confirmed cases, the only real hope of this turning out to be no big deal is if HUGE numbers of people have gotten it without realizing it, many, many times as many as have been confirmed.

That is a possibility, but there is a growing body of evidence that it is not the case.

For example, South Korea has tested a lot of people, and is very aggressive about tracking down possible exposures and testing them. As of today, South Korea has performed 286,716 tests and gotten 8,320 positives. ( https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030 )

In Italy, an entire town of 3,000 people was tested. From those tests, it is estimated that 50-75% of cases are asymptomatic. ( https://www.repubblica.it/salu...54518-C12-P3-S2.4-T1 in Italian but Google can translate it for you)

That data is not consistent with tens or hundreds of times as many undetected cases as confirmed cases, which would be required for this to be remotely in the same ballpark of threat level as a typical flu virus.

By all indications, this is much more dangerous both to individuals and to the population as a whole than a typical flu virus.

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:

quote:

Originally posted by 6guns:
Doc H or any other docs, can you comment on this video? Any truth to it? Is it worth considering for any virus?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkAjLe3l5SA

The very short answer is "no." A longer version is "Not only no, but hell no." Hair dryers, saunas, hot baths, sticking your head in an oven - no, no, no and no (although a hot bath or sauna does make you feel better). Heat high enough to even inconvenience the virus would likely more than inconvenience - as in "cook" - you, the human. The virus isn't sitting around waiting to be fried, but it's buried in your tissues, literally, in a very short time from exposure (the little guy floating around is actually a virion. It doesn't become a virus until it's actually inside a cell). Having said that, warm temperatures may, possibly, diminish the virus's ability to spread. Equatorial zones are, in fact, seeing a slight reduction in transmission. This could be artifact (not enough "n") or it could mean that there will indeed be a seasonal effect on this pathogen. I still hold out a possibility, although researchers disagree. We shall see.

Doc and kkina, thanks for your thoughts!

quote:

Originally posted by kkina:

quote:

Originally posted by 46and2:

quote:

Originally posted by clubleaf206:
The governor of Kansas just announced that all K-12 schools will be closed for the rest of the year. (!) That includes private schooks.

What? That seems, well, excessive.

That's the rest of the school year, right?

(shakes head at self)

yes, surely.

quote:

Originally posted by kkina:
That's the rest of the school year, right?

That is correct. The school year would be finished in May, anyway. But, will this also effect Summer School? She (the governor) also canceled proms and graduation ceremonies. Perhaps more importantly, nobody has explained how parents are supposed to arrange child care on short notice, especially when some day care centers are closed or unable to take in more children. Not supposed to have gatherings of more than 50 people, according to the county and state.

President Trump has proved time and time again to me that he has our best interests in mind and will do what's right by America. If this was a yuge nothingberger he would have let us know either by a press release or by readng between the lines in his actions.
I'm confident that once we get ahead of this virus our economy will rebound and we will once again be singing his praises as we continue to give the leftists the what's for.
I suggest we all simply follow his lead and let nature take its course for a couple weeks then get back to all the winning we so much enjoy.
Stop taking our frustrations out on each other and remember that we are all on the same side and are each others countrymen.

Looks like the Richwood Flea Market is closed now too.. Bummer. The U Haul part will still be open so maybe she will let me clock in as there is much to do on the property.

Both of my children are teachers whose school districts have been closed since Friday. My daughter received a call from the school district informing her that one of her students tested positive for the virus. The DOH directed her to self-quarantine while monitoring her temperature. Mrs 12GA and I are considered secondarily exposed and can go about our business including going to work.

We’ll see how this all works out.

I was informed an extended family who is an MD ob/gyn was diagnosed this morning with Covid19. There is some preliminary evidence of fairly alarming lung scarring of 20 year olds who had mild symptoms.

IMO this is blown out of proportion by

a) the media. who know there is little the Fed Gov't can do but who are pinning it on the Feds and Trump to make Trump the scapegoat to hopefully hurt his reelection chances, even if it destroys the economy, etc.

and

b) those who want or depend on the the Nanny State and want the Nanny State to fix it and take care of them. Problem is, the Nanny State can't fix this except to close the borders, ease up on trucking regulations, etc.

This sucks. I'm not a truck driver but do make deliveries all day if I choose. With all the restaurants etc. closed, you can't stop, get out of the vehicle, and sit somewhere and eat and relax for a while to recharge.

Or, go to the bathroom. Have to go to a grocery store to use the bathroom. How long before grocery stores are drive-thru pickup only?

I can't stop and chill a few minutes over a slice of pizza and coke!

I believe I probably had this back in November or so.

quote:

Originally posted by mikeyspizza:
IMO this is blown out of proportion .

100% correct but the cat is out of the bag and we have to deal with it.

OMG - it just got real for me.

You know how, as a dog owner, you're supposed to make sure your dog gets enough exercise every day to keep them healthy and calm? Walks and such every day lest they get anxious and hyper?



Well, my wife's gym has closed for the next few weeks.....

quote:

Originally posted by midwest guy:
I was informed an extended family who is an MD ob/gyn was diagnosed this morning with Covid19. There is some preliminary evidence of fairly alarming lung scarring of 20 year olds who had mild symptoms.

Smokers or vapers?

quote:

Originally posted by sjtill:
From UpToDate, a medical reference for physicians:

quote:

Chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine – Both chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine inhibit SARS-CoV-2 in vitro, although hydroxychloroquine appears to have more potent antiviral activity [75]. A number of clinical trials are underway in China to evaluate the use of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 [76].

From PubMed:
In Vitro Antiviral Activity and Projection of Optimized Dosing Design of Hydroxychloroquine for the Treatment of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

Here is an article from Stanford University recommending incorporating chloroquine and/or hydroxychloroquine into treatment guidelines, based on reports of successful use in China.

An Effective Treatment for Coronavirus (Covid-19)

Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are only available by prescription in the US, both are generic, but not very inexpensive per DrugRx.com (you can look that up). You can get discount coupons from DrugRx.com for whatever chain pharmacy you use.

I got a supply of hydroxychloroquine Sunday from Wal-Mart—not for prevention, but for treatment if needed.

Expect to see a run on these drugs.

I am actually prescribed that Plaquenil (HCQS) for R.A. and stopped taking it out of fear that it would beat up my immune system!

Kind of a cool story - a Houston distillery is switching over to hand sanitizer production

quote:

Houston-Area Distillery Pivots To Make Hand Sanitizer, Rubbing Alcohol

March 17, 2020

Houston's largest distiller will soon begin producing hand sanitizer and rubbing alcohol to help meet surging demand

Gulf Coast Distillers will produce the hand sanitizer, called C4U, as well as rubbing alcohol on a dedicated production and bottling line. Financial details about how much Gulf Coast Distillers will spend to produce the new products were not immediately available. The distillery expects its production of Giant Texas Bourbon, BJ Hooker’s Vodka and other brands to remain relatively unaffected.

Carlos de Aldecoa, Gulf Coast Distillers’ CEO and president, said the company wants to do whatever it can to help the community.

“Given the fact that we're in the alcohol and ethanol business, I thought it was the right time for us to just jump into it and start the production of this product ASAP,” de Aldecoa said.

Gulf Coast Distillers began having serious discussions with some retailers toward the end of last week and then decided to pull the trigger and start producing.

quote:

Originally posted by mikeyspizza:
How long before grocery stores are drive-thru pickup only?

That's how it is in France right now. In fact, what they must do is pull up, get out of the car, and open the trunk. Then they must reenter their cars and shut the door before the grocery store worker is allowed to approach the vehicle and place the groceries in the trunk and leave. Then the people can get out, shut the trunk, and be on their way. Dead serious.

quote:

Originally posted by holdem:

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:
Having said that, warm temperatures may, possibly, diminish the virus's ability to spread. Equatorial zones are, in fact, seeing a slight reduction in transmission. This could be artifact (not enough "n") or it could mean that there will indeed be a seasonal effect on this pathogen. I still hold out a possibility, although researchers disagree. We shall see.

That is a question I have been meaning to ask;

Every spring, cold and flu season dies off. These viruses die off in warmer weather, correct?

Are there other viruses in the cold and flu family that do not die off in warmer weather?

And if not the cold and flu family, just viruses in general that are not affected by warmer weather?

It does pique my interest that the experts are saying this one may not. I tend to think they are being overly cautious, because they simply do not know. And that would be fine. Or is there any evidence to support their theory?

Since it has been in the mid 80's in Orlando for over a week, I am obviously hoping this pathogen is greatly affected by warmer weather.

Several complicating factors. The two closest coronavirus relatives to SARS-CoV-2 are OC43 and HKU1 beta coronaviruses, which are in fact seasonal (a "common" cold). But they fade in warmer weather likely for several reasons.

One may be that they have been in the human population for a long time. A really, really, really long time. There is some pent-up herd immunity, and during Winter, populations are more densely packed inside - facilitating transmission that would otherwise be very mild - Summer. The same thing could of course apply to SARS-CoV-2 (and I think will), but there is no herd immunity, and transmission rates (R0) are higher, making even smaller populations in contact more significant.

They are also sensitive to higher humidity for transmission - relative humidity rises with warmer temperatures: viruses are really goldilocks organisms, and small environmental changes can push them over the edge, particularly in resistant populations.

They also - really - may have been "trained" (evolved may be a better term) - to be more infective when there is more opportunity in a population: higher population density, more children (carriers) mixed with adults, lowered immune response (less nutrition, less Vitamin D, who knows). Winter.

SARS-CoV-2 may be impacted by all of these, and probably is, the difference being that there is almost no (as far as we know) population immunity, so the seasonal impact on related viruses may be greater because they live on a thinner margin for survival. But if it impacts even a little, that combined with other factors like reducing contact and increased population immunity with time (and eventually a vaccine) could push it over the edge too, and I think it might.