quote:

Originally posted by TigerDore:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
Because Italy doesn't have a poor health care system. In fact Italy has one of the more highly-rated health care systems in the world.

So is Canada's, but that is all relative to the entire world, including 3rd world nations.

It's also relative to ours and every other 1st world health care system in the world.

quote:

Originally posted by TigerDore:
Like Canada, Italy's healthcare is socialized.

That has no bearing on the efficacy of their ability to handle a pandemic like this.

If you examine the oft-observed differences between nations with "socialized" health care systems and ours, the primary differences are in getting elective care, not emergency care. (That, and of course, the tax burden. But that has no bearing on this discussion.)

quote:

Originally posted by TigerDore:
I don't know much about Italy's healthcare beyond the above,

All you really need to know is they have a modern, first world health care system. Near as I can tell: As good as, perhaps better than, in certain respects, our's.

Member BansheeOne, living right next door to Italy, can probably shed more light on this subject.

quote:

Originally posted by TigerDore:
but I know I wouldn't want to be in Canada during an outbreak like this, and would much prefer to be in the US.

I don't blame you. You live here. You're familiar with the health care here. You trust the health care here. So it's no surprise you'd rather be here than anywhere else.

Conversely: I'm familiar with the health care systems both here and in Netherlands. I'd be equally as comfortable there as I am here.

^^^^ Italy’s healthcare being socialized has “no bearing” on their ability to handle a pandemic?

The ridiculousness of that statement cannot be understated.

Trying to reason with some of you guys is like playing a game of whack-a-mole.

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

For your predictions of deaths and infections to match up, the current estimates of number of cases would have to be low by a factor of hundreds, if not thousands.

That's certainly possible, and all the experts agree there are many more cases than we are actually testing, but I haven't seen any epidemiologist or ID expert opine there are that many.

Also, it is believed that the disease has already undergone one significant mutation, that there are now two strains, and that it is possible to be infected with both (i.e., being infected with one strain does not confer complete immunity to the other).

By paragraph:

- That is correct.
- That is also correct.
- There are at least two strains, but likely not significantly different in infectivity (although first reported), and very probably not lethality. Which does not preclude further mutation.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
Because Italy doesn't have a poor health care system. In fact Italy has one of the more highly-rated health care systems in the world.

Based on what findings, the WHO's rankings? If so, do you know the parameters they use to "rank" countries and their healthcare systems? They use five components to their rankings-

Overall level of health in population - 25%

Health inequalities and disparities - 25%

Overall health responsiveness - 12.5%

Distribution of responsiveness among varying economic classes - 12.5%

Distribution of health system's financial burden - 25%


And understandably, many health professionals have a negative view of this "ranking" system, including many in this country.

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:
^^^^ Italy’s healthcare being socialized has “no bearing” on their ability to handle a pandemic?

The ridiculousness of that statement cannot be understated.

Very well: Explain exactly how Italy's health care system being socialized impacts its ability to deal with this pandemic?

Before you go there: You do realize that every single individual on Medicare, such as my wife and I, are on a form of socialized health care, right in this very county, right?

So should I be concerned about the quality of health care I'd be likely to experience should I catch this bug?

quote:

Originally posted by oddball:
And understandably, many health professionals have a negative view of this "ranking" system, including many in this country.

Fair enough. But, ISTM, this is quibbling. The point is Italy's health care system is hardly "third world."

Here's the story of one U.S. couple that had the virus and have since recovered. While it doesn't sound pleasant it doesn't sound particularly terrible either.


https://www.foxnews.com/media/...ericans-not-to-panic

quote:

Originally posted by Ackks:

quote:

Originally posted by esdunbar:
I have no extra anything. If I really need food, I can drop a deer out back. I don’t get why folks are preparing for anything.

There is no interruption to supply. Do you really think the government is going to shut down water treatment plants? That’s stupid. No one needs to be buying bottled water. I mean, do what you want, but your faucet will keep working.

I did stock up on outdoor stuff though. We went yesterday and got roller blades and a basketball hoop for the kids. With a 3 week spring break my wife wants them outside! The streets were business as usual around here. Stores have everything except TP.

Good luck to you. I hope you and your family stay safe. My advice to people is to buy an excess of things you normally use. If you normally have two jars of sauce in the house make it 4. The same with cereal, soups, pasta, etc. If you have it and already use it won't go to waste, but IF your family needs it they have it.

Bottled water is smart to have as well. Do I anticipate something happen to shut it down because of this? No, but it is wise to store a few cases for emergencies in general. Remember when the algae toxin got into the water supply in one of the Midwest states a few years back? I think the chances are low there will be an interruption in the next few weeks, but not enough to leave my family unprepared.

You were smart to get things for activities as well. Hopefully you all make it through this safe.

Can you elaborate on why the supply of sauce, cereal or water would be interrupted?

In the countries where this is worst, have they been unable to buy cereal or any of the above? No flowing water in italy?

Besides, I can live the rest of my life without hitting a grocery store. Can you not? If you can’t, yeah, I guess stock up on cereal, but after what, like 3 weeks, you’re screwed anyways.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:
^^^^ Italy’s healthcare being socialized has “no bearing” on their ability to handle a pandemic?

The ridiculousness of that statement cannot be understated.

Very well: Explain exactly how Italy's health care system being socialized impacts its ability to deal with this pandemic?

Before you go there: You do realize that every single individual on Medicare, such as my wife and I, are on a form of socialized health care, right in this very county, right?

So should I be concerned about the quality of health care I'd be likely to experience should I catch this bug?

Oh please. I give up.

You should take solace from your CUT.

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:
You should take solace from your CUT.

And now we're back to "If you're not dismissing this, you're panicking."

I'm not anxious, much less panicking, at all. Merely expressing a degree of caution and engaging in a degree of preparedness.

Dr. Peter Attia #97 – Peter Hotez, M.D., Ph.D.: COVID-19: transmissibility, vaccines, risk reduction, and treatment 3-14-20

In this episode, Dr. Peter Hotez M.D., Ph.D., Dean for the National School of Tropical Medicine Baylor College of Medicine, shares his expertise on viral disease and how it applies specifically to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the virus that causes it (SARS-CoV-2). Dr. Hotez informs us about the current state of disease progression, which has many unknowns, but has thus far been greatly determined by the delayed response time and lack of testing. Moreover, we discuss what we can do on a country, state, community, and individual level in order to collectively slow transmission of the disease. He shares with us a potential hope in convalescent plasma therapy and underscores the need for US federal involvement – particularly in the creation of a specialty task force to address areas of concern and unknowns.

- - -

We discuss:

The disease and the virus: transmissibility and lethality [04:30];

Disease transmission: US playing catch-up [12:00];

Convalescent plasma coronavirus therapy [16:00];

Remdesivir drug treatment and vaccination challenges [19:45];

Disease mechanism and reported pathology [27:45];

Most concerning geographic regions in the US [39:00];

Risk reduction [46:30];

and More.

- - -

Recent paper reported fomite survival on different surfaces:

aerosols, up to 3 hours post aerosolization

up to 4 hours on copper

up to 24 hours on cardboard

up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel (13hr median half-life on steel; 16hr median half-life on plastic)

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:
You should take solace from your CUT.

And now we're back to "If you're not dismissing this, you're panicking."

I'm not anxious, much less panicking, at all. Merely expressing a degree of caution and engaging in a degree of preparedness.

Nope. No such thing as being cautious and prepared. It's only two ends of the spectrum allowed.

I'm prepared, calm, and cautious. I really don't want it to be bad, it could be, or it couldn't. Left my crystal ball somewhere and I can't find it. So I take solace in knowing whatever happens I'll survive (unless I die I guess).

Market Healthcare vs. Socialism: Why South Korea Healthcare is Outperforming Italy

https://mises.org/wire/markets...rming-italy-covid-19

03/13/2020Matthew Tanous
Everyone is vitally aware of the spread of the novel COVID-19 pandemic as it rages in early stages across the globe. Travel restrictions are everywhere as people are trying to get tested, prepare for possible quarantines, and worrying about their jobs and their families. Events involving large groups of people are canceled, and in some cases entire countries are being locked down.

But in all this flurry of reaction over the crisis, there is an almost natural experiment in how well a socialized healthcare system can respond to such a problem. And the answer appears to be…not well. To demonstrate, we can look at the two cases of Italy and South Korea. As of the time of this writing (3/12/2020), Italy has experienced 15,113 cases while South Korea has confirmed 7,869. However, the South Korean number is rising at a relatively tepid ~100 cases a day to Italy’s roughly 2,500 added today. (Data on the spread of the novel coronavirus was obtained from this site tracking the outbreak.) Overall, Italy and South Korea have similar populations (around 60 million and 50 million, respectively), although the South Korean half of the Korean Peninsula is about a third of the size of Italy in terms of land area.

Italy is experiencing a quickly spiraling exponential growth in confirmed cases despite shutting down the entire country with curfews and travel restrictions and heavily focusing on the provision of care. By contrast, even with a cult that essentially spread the disease on purpose, South Korea has gained a strong foothold in containing COVID-19. There are many reasons for this difference in outcome, but some of them are directly related to the far more socialized healthcare system in Italy.

South Korean Healthcare

Although South Korea does have a state-monopolized system providing a universal health insurance, this state-provided insurance is not able to set prices in the market for healthcare. Hospitals and clinics routinely charge patients more than the state insurance will pay, which has caused many Koreans to take out private insurance to cover the difference. TheKorea Bizwire reports that eight out of ten Koreans take out such insurance, with the average Korean paying just over 120,000 won (about $120) a month for it.

Care is provided by a set of hospitals that are 94 percent privately owned, with a fee-for-service model and no direct government subsidies. Many of these hospitals are run by charitable foundations or private universities. Private hospitals in the country exploded in number from 1,185 in 2002 to 3,048 in 2012. The result is that South Korea has 10 hospital beds per 1,000 people, more than twice the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) average (and nearly three times as many as Italy’s 3.4 beds per capita). These private hospitals also charge significantly less (between 30–85 percent of the price) than US hospitals (which are also often required to get a “certificate of need” from the government before construction, depending on what state they are built in).

Italian Healthcare

In Italy, by contrast, surgeries and hospitalization provided by public hospitals or by conventional private ones are completely free of charge for everyone regardless of their income. This is entirely paid for by the the national health service, the Servizio Sanitario Nazionale (SSN) (as are family doctors' services). Waiting times can be up to a few months for large public facilities, though they are somewhat shorter for small private facilities with contracts to provide services through the SSN. Public and private medical providers offer “free market” options in which the patient pays directly, but this is rarely taken up and thus contributes very little to hospital revenues. Emergency medical service is always free of charge.

Wait times and other quality markers are significantly worse in the south of the country, with patients often going to northern Italy for better care. Doctors graduating from Italian medical schools often go elsewhere for work, and Italian officials are seeking to respond by reducing openings in medical programs. Italy experienced an ongoing health worker shortage even before COVID-19 struck the country. The number of hospitals in the country has been on a steady decline over the last couple of decades, from 1,321 in 2000 to 1,063 in 2017. SSN prices for payments to hospitals were set below market rates for the purpose of saving money on healthcare, and the results were as expected for a de facto price control.

Conclusion

Currently, the Italian healthcare system is overwhelmed by the tens of thousands of COVID-19 cases it is already facing. They have turned to rationing care to prioritize the young, leaving those most at risk of the virus to essentially fend for themselves. Most just chalk this up to the severity and danger of the pandemic. However, the evidence tells a different story. It portrays a situation made far worse by a reliance on government-centralized healthcare that manages costs by de facto price rationing rather than a free market system. Although South Korea provides a basic safety net, it is also one of the closest healthcare systems in the world to a free market, outpacing to a significant degree even the US system (which includes a great number of supply-restricting regulations that only drive up costs and hurt availability). As a result, South Korean healthcare did what Italy’s already undersupplied system could not do—cope effectively with the pandemic and manage to get it under control without shutting down the entire country in the process.

If US officials wish to effectively handle the rising number of cases in big cities, they would do well to take lessons from South Korea and start freeing the market for healthcare rather than bungling a monopolized testing protocol that did not need to be monopolized, and thereby preventing people from getting tested. This would not immediately resolve the problems created by bad regulation in the past, but it would certainly reduce its negative consequences while improving the healthcare system's ability to deal with these sorts of crises going forward. It would also have the benefit of reducing the cost of healthcare generally.



.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:


I don't blame you. You live here. You're familiar with the health care here. You trust the health care here. So it's no surprise you'd rather be here than anywhere else....

I have traveled extensively internationally most of my life. I have experienced healthcare in Asia, Latin America and Europe both personally and with my employees. Your response is revealing and it isn't pretty.


.

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:
My poor pregnant wife is freaking out now, and is at the supermarket right now getting more food, we are trying to have enough for three weeks or longer without having to go anywhere.

I guess the family trip is off?

Yes sir. They finally woke up, postponed until further notice.

TigerDore, while interesting, and a good argument against fully-socialized health care, that article is conflating the quality of health care post-infection with the spread of the disease.

This article is probably a better illustration of why South Korea better-handled the pandemic than other countries: South Korea’s coronavirus response is the opposite of China and Italy – and it’s working

quote:

Originally posted by TigerDore:
Your response is revealing and it isn't pretty.

What do you believe it reveals and in what way(s) is it "not pretty?"

TSA screeners have tested positive, four in San José, and now one at the Orlando International Airport. How many people had they been in contact with? How about their co-workers, the other TSA screeners?

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The club that I belong to, Eustis Gun Club, is scheduled to host the Florida State Championship SASS match this coming week. I don't know how many people will be attending, using the relatively small restrooms and other common facilities, but I'm not going anywhere near that place.

There is absolutely no irony in Mexico not giving a damn when all of their problem children and undesirables were illegally crossing our borders, but as soon as there might be a threat coming the other way they want a total lock down.

Fine.... Build a wall.... Build it tall and deep you hypocritical bastards

quote:

TSA screeners have tested positive, four in San José, and now one at the Orlando International Airport. How many people had they been in contact with? How about their co-workers, the other TSA screeners?

Federal program, so Trumps fault. See how easy that is?

quote:

Originally posted by V-Tail:
TSA screeners have tested positive, four in San José, and now one at the Orlando International Airport. How many people had they been in contact with? How about their co-workers, the other TSA screeners?

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The club that I belong to, Eustis Gun Club, is scheduled to host the Florida State Championship SASS match this coming week. I don't know how many people will be attending, using the relatively small restrooms and other common facilities, but I'm not going anywhere near that place.

It depends, were they one of the few that actually do something or one of the dozens I see every week at the airport standing around with their thumb up their ass

Levity aside, they would seem to be prime candidates to catch something with the sheer volume of people they interact with on a given day. Unfortunately, they are equally likely to spread it. The one guy at each checkpoint line will handle thousands of driver's licenses and passports a day, taking them and then handing them back to the owner.