quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:

Look at Italy for instance. Of their resolved cases, 42% resulted in death (down from yesterday, and will continue to drop). That's pretty scary to me. 1/20 chance of needing intensive care, 1/7 of needing hospital care outside of the ICU.

https://www.worldometers.info/...virus/country/italy/

Of course it will do more than come down, it will come WAAAAAY down when all those 'mild cases' have an 'outcome'.

Of course it will, probably by a factor of ten. Still at 2-3% CFR it's a good idea to limit exposure and not overwhelm the system. The actions governments and businesses are doing are in that effort.

quote:

Originally posted by Ackks:

quote:

Originally posted by esdunbar:
I have no extra anything. If I really need food, I can drop a deer out back. I don’t get why folks are preparing for anything.

There is no interruption to supply. Do you really think the government is going to shut down water treatment plants? That’s stupid. No one needs to be buying bottled water. I mean, do what you want, but your faucet will keep working.

I did stock up on outdoor stuff though. We went yesterday and got roller blades and a basketball hoop for the kids. With a 3 week spring break my wife wants them outside! The streets were business as usual around here. Stores have everything except TP.

Good luck to you. I hope you and your family stay safe. My advice to people is to buy an excess of things you normally use. If you normally have two jars of sauce in the house make it 4. The same with cereal, soups, pasta, etc. If you have it and already use it won't go to waste, but IF your family needs it they have it.

Bottled water is smart to have as well. Do I anticipate something happen to shut it down because of this? No, but it is wise to store a few cases for emergencies in general. Remember when the algae toxin got into the water supply in one of the Midwest states a few years back? I think the chances are low there will be an interruption in the next few weeks, but not enough to leave my family unprepared.

You were smart to get things for activities as well. Hopefully you all make it through this safe.

This is a sane reaction. Ignoring it or buying 10 zillion rolls of TP is not. For me worst case scenario is I've prepaid some of my groceries for the next couple of months which is not a horrible thing.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:

Look at Italy for instance. Of their resolved cases, 42% resulted in death (down from yesterday, and will continue to drop). That's pretty scary to me. 1/20 chance of needing intensive care, 1/7 of needing hospital care outside of the ICU.
https://www.worldometers.info/...virus/country/italy/

i believe after all this, there will be more information about the process and decisions made in italy during this outbreak that are not clear now. the hardest areas inside the "hot" zone are more rural, and the majority of population there is in Milan. i think they made some hard choices, that in hindsight will be judged. lets hope we make better choices if we ever have such a dense spike in cases.

italian outbreak map

quote:

Originally posted by Rightwire:

quote:

Yeah, they’re also dying at a faster rate than we are at the moment, but that’s because of their lousy healthcare systems

Huh... Our horrible evil healthcare system that must be changed.... Is better?

Uhm... *cough*

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:
Stop and ask yourself this. When have you ever heard anyone say, “You know, I have this horrible disease. I think I’m going to Italy to get it treated”.

Undoubtedly, you’ll have some in this thread come to explain away their poor health care.

Because it's a furrin country it must have inferior health care, is that it? Srsly? Wow

quote:

Originally posted by alteon180e:
i think they made some hard choices, that in hindsight will be judged.

I think it's pretty clear they underestimated the virulence of this disease and took gradually-escalating measures as a result, when, in retrospect, what they should have done was to have clamped-down on activities, venues, etc. that led to mass social contact/interaction a lot more quickly.

Several in the "it's not all that bad" camp keep pointing to the efficacy of our respective health care systems. The flaw in that argument is two-fold: Italy's health care system is actually one of the more highly-ranked in the world and, secondly, why let it get to the point the health care system has to be involved, anyway? "An ounce of prevention..." and all that.

quote:

Originally posted by alteon180e:
lets hope we make better choices if we ever have such a dense spike in cases.

We're not as "social" as Italians in the first place. I don't know how the two countries compare hygiene-wise. I know the people in many of the northern European countries are a lot more hygienic than are many, perhaps even most, Americans.

Yesterday, when I was at Winco (grocery store), they went from being open 24 hours to being closed 12a-5a, when I went by there this morning, they changed the closed hours again and it's now 12a-8a; wonder if they're having trouble cleaning at night and/or not able to restock as much.

interview w Dr Fauci

He says if we leave the virus "alone", it will go way up in infections and then decay naturally over several weeks. That is the scenario where deaths could be high.

video at link

https://www.breitbart.com/clip...ronavirus-seriously/

OK. There is nothing unexpected about this pandemic, so far, with the exception of the mass hysteria generated, largely, by the ability to instantly communicate peer-to-peer. Lesson learned for the future. Baseline and predicted: millions will become infected, and undoubtedly already are. Infected is not dead. Thousands will die, and have. Perhaps tens of thousands, and that is tragic. They wouldn't (most) have died except for this organism. But from the current vector, not millions. Almost six thousand documented, so far, planet-wide. Three thousand in the highly crowded, population-dense, organizationally and medically unprepared epicenter, after what is likely more than 6 months. And that appears to be leveling off or even trending down. It has been a shock for some to discover that trendy countries like Spain and Italy have what are essentially third-world healthcare systems, based on fatality rates. It has not been a shock for some. And no, we are not early, globally. We are about halfway in. Rates of infection will progress, and, apparently feed the panic - although we already know the approximate rate of spread. By the end of the year, it's likely that at least half of the world's population will have been exposed - very probably more.

We will shortly have expanded testing, most likely eventually POS with instant readouts. It is apparent now that this will produce another spike of hysteria, because the case count will rise exponentially. Actually, it won't - it has always been there - but the detected and verified case count will rise. This will diminish as most realize that case count does not equal lethality.

I can't tell anyone not to panic - the constant, visible drumbeat of empty shelves, trashed 401Ks, failed supply lines and continually reported rising fatalities (and they will) promotes that. We will be recovering months if not years from the impact on the world economy, and perhaps a worldwide recession. And any of the above can turn on a dime if the unstable RNA of a new virus, freshly introduced into a now vulnerable human population, mutates a couple of nucleotides into a truly lethal world-killing organism. But that threat is with us daily, and has been, just unnoticed. I can tell you that based on historical data, current real data, and biological probabilities, this pandemic will almost certainly fade back into the animal reservoir by the end of the year, perhaps sooner. I could be wrong (I've been wrong before ) . But, absent the odd mutation (always possible), I believe, sincerely hope and pray, that I am not.

If you’ve ever met an Italian or been to Italy you know that we hug and kiss everybody....

A little social distancing, like we are doing here, will go a long way in slowing down the contagiousness of the virus.

That, plus the state of our medical system, will mean our rate of infections and the seriousness of those infections will be much less.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

Also, since I live on a 20,000 acre lake that is a primary water supply for the surrounding area and have my own private well I’m not buying any overpriced water...

quote:

Originally posted by lkdr1989:
Yesterday, when I was at Winco (grocery store), they went from being open 24 hours to being closed 12a-5a, when I went by there this morning, they changed the closed hours again and it's now 12a-8a; wonder if they're having trouble cleaning at night and/or not able to restock as much.

I think it’s more that they are running out of things to stock, it’s getting crazy out here

I was one of these people who didn’t think this was going to be a huge deal until yesterday.

Now it’s sinking in and we may be in for a pretty long and rough 6-8 weeks.

We have a good two weeks worth of regular food, then a months worth of survival freeze dried food, plenty of ammo, plenty of toilet paper, plenty of beer, plenty of meds.

It’s going to be very interesting going forward to say the least.

quote:

Originally posted by feersum dreadnaught:
Get familiar with the Gompertz curve. Good news is that outbreaks don’t stay exponential. They do level out.



The Gompertz Curve is defined as

y(t) = α * exp(-β * exp(-k^t))

where

t = time
alpha = upper asymptote
beta = growth displacement
k = growth rate


https://wattsupwiththat.com/20...e-math-of-epidemics/

Well, sure. As people begin to take precautionary measures (reduce number of exposures), spread will slow. As more people become infected (more exposures are of people who are already sick, or retain immunity from having already been sick), spread will slow. If nothing else, it will stop spreading after most people have gotten it.

The fact that pandemics eventually stop doesn't mean this one is sure to stop soon.

The CDC estimates the number of people in the United States that get the flu each year. For the last nine flu seasons (not counting the current one, which is still under way), those estimates are:

21 million, 9.3 million, 34 million, 30 million, 30 million, 24 million, 29 million, 45 million, 35 million. ( https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/...en/past-seasons.html )

Each year, on the order of 10% of the population of the United States gets the flu - and that's DESPITE the fact around 40% of the population of the United States is vaccinated each year ( https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvax...ge-1718estimates.htm ) and many of those that aren't have some degree of latent immunity from past infections.

We have no vaccine for COVID-19 and won't for months, if not years.

No one has had COVID-19 before, so there's no latent immunity in the population.

Finally, the current estimate of the reproduction rate (a measure of rate of spread) of COVID-19 is similar to, but a bit higher than, the flu. ( https://www.telegraph.co.uk/ne...hs-compare-covid-19/ )

All of that adds up to the conclusion that if major steps are not taken to slow the spread of COVID-19, it is reasonable to expect that more people in the US could be infected with COVID-19 than by flu in a typical flu season (which, again, is ~30 million people).

“Two top doctors believe an experimental drug has helped save the lives of American coronavirus patients.

George Thompson, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California Davis Medical Center, was part of the team that administered the drug, remdesivir, to a sickly American woman who tested positive for the virus on February 26.

'We thought they were going to pass away,' Thompson told Science magazine Friday about the patient - who was the first known 'community spread' case in the United States.”

https://mol.im/a/8113093

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:
My poor pregnant wife is freaking out now, and is at the supermarket right now getting more food, we are trying to have enough for three weeks or longer without having to go anywhere.

I guess the family trip is off?

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:
Mine looks exactly like it does 12 months a year.

When this turns out to be the huge nothing burger in the US that it is, I guess we get to listen how the hystericals hand wringing saves us all.

Well stated.

What do the vulnerable people actually die of? What actually happens? What fails?

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:
When this turns out to be the huge nothing burger in the US that it is, I guess we get to listen how the hystericals hand wringing saves us all.

Just like it always does...

BUT WE SAVED YOU!!!!!

What I am wondering now is how much longer before some states/governors/mayors try to stretch the limitations of their powers by restricting or suspending the sale of things like firearms, ammo, alcohol, etc.

A visual look at the history of pandemics. This is mostly graphics that would take up too much space here, so I am only going to provide the link, but I think it is worth reviewing for some perspective, which seems to be much needed right now, even on Sig Forum:

https://www.visualcapitalist.c...8A7dr6X7XlJBDLBkaiSE



.

quote:

Originally posted by Graniteguy:
What I am wondering now is how much longer before some states/governors/mayors try to stretch the limitations of their powers by restricting or suspending the sale of things like firearms, ammo, alcohol, etc.

Already done/being done in Illinois. Noted several posts, or maybe pages, back.