March 15, 2020, 12:18 AM
41Elderly face four months in self-isolation - even if they're NOT ill - and army is to guard supermarkets and hospitals in wartime-style mobilisation to fight coronavirus as deaths in the UK almost double overnight to 21 and infections hit 1,140
Blanket order for the elderly to self-isolate will be enforced in next 20 days as PM ratchets up efforts
Doctors are preparing to give isolated patients advice over video link and army hospitals will be used
The drastic measure is wrapped into a wider package of emergency powers to stem the spread of the virus
Troops will be deployed to guard hospitals and supermarkets and private hospital beds will be used
Business will be urged to serve national interest by overhauling production lines to make medical supplies
It came as Britain's COVID-19 death rate almost doubled as ten more people died, bringing total deaths to 21
Coronavirus symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?
By Jack Elsom and Isabella Nikolic For Mailonline and Glen Owen and Mark Nicol and Harry Cole and Stephen Adams for The Mail on Sunday
Published: 10:20 EDT, 14 March 2020 | Updated: 23:02 EDT, 14 March 2020
Britain's over-70s will be told to stay at home for four months while the government goes on a war footing to firefight the coronavirus crisis, it was revealed last night.
Mass isolating of the elderly - even if they are not ill - will begin within the next 20 days as Boris Johnson ratchets up efforts to tackle the UK's ballooning outbreak.
Although the drastic measures have been drawn up to protect those most vulnerable to the killer COVID-19 infection, it brings serious concerns about the wellbeing of pensioners cooped-up for such a long time.
Regular social outings will have to be scrapped and pangs of loneliness could compound an already stressful isolation experience, psychologists have warned.
Instructing the over-70s to remain indoors forms part of a wider package of emergency powers due to be officially rolled out by Downing Street this week.
Banning mass gatherings, allowing the police to detain suspected virus victims and forcing schools to stay open were already revealed to be part of the strategy going forward.
And last night the government's coronavirus blueprint was fleshed out further as more impending measures emerged:
Troops will be deployed to guard hospitals and supermarkets, where panic-buying unleashed carnage on Saturday
Thousands of private hospital beds will be drafted to relax the pressure on the NHS, which threatens to be overwhelmed as cases climb
Business will be urged to serve the national interest by overhauling production lines to instead manufacture essential medical equipment such as ventilators
Whole families will be told to isolate themselves even if just one member falls ill with coronavirus
The police are planning to sideline pursuing minor misdemeanors and only investigate crimes involving a loss of life to free up officers
The government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) yesterday advised that the next interventions - shielding the vulnerable and household isolation - 'will need to be instituted soon'.
The decision to instruct all over-70s to remain in their homes and care homes within three weeks is to stop the NHS 'falling over' with pressure, according to ITV News' political editor Robert Peston who first revealed the move.
He further revealed: 'Plans are also well under way for doctors to give consultations to patients quarantined at home by video links over the internet.
'There are two other aspects of this wartime mobilisation: Army hospitals will be used (and) lockdowns of cities or parts of cities have NOT been ruled out.'
Downing Street's new raft of measures, which will be rubber stamped at a meeting chaired by the PM today, marks a screeching U-turn as only a few days ago the government flatly refused to follow European counterparts in curbing person-to-person contact.
But the public appeared to back radical measures to battle the health crisis, with a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times finding 52 per cent believe the government should declare a state of emergency. Meanwhile, 63 per cent were in favour of food rationing.
Number 10's tack to implement tougher measures came as Britain's COVID-19 death rate almost doubled overnight as ten more people died, bringing the toll to 21. The infection tally hit 1,140.
Britons wore face masks in central London on Saturday, before it emerged over-70s will be told to stay at home for four months while the government goes on a war footing to firefight the coronavirus crisis
+30
Britons wore face masks in central London on Saturday, before it emerged over-70s will be told to stay at home for four months while the government goes on a war footing to firefight the coronavirus crisis
The UK's death rate doubled overnight as a further ten patients died from the coronavirus. The total number of cases in the UK leapt from 820 this morning to 1,140 on Saturday
+30
The UK's death rate doubled overnight as a further ten patients died from the coronavirus. The total number of cases in the UK leapt from 820 this morning to 1,140 on Saturday
Mass isolating of the elderly - even if they are not ill - will begin within the next 20 days as Boris Johnson ratchets up efforts to tackle the UK's ballooning outbreak
+30
Mass isolating of the elderly - even if they are not ill - will begin within the next 20 days as Boris Johnson ratchets up efforts to tackle the UK's ballooning outbreak
Troops will be deployed to guard hospitals and supermarkets, where panic-buying unleashed carnage on Saturday. Pictured: trolleys piled high for delivery are seen at an Asda in London
+30
Troops will be deployed to guard hospitals and supermarkets, where panic-buying unleashed carnage on Saturday. Pictured: trolleys piled high for delivery are seen at an Asda in London
TROOPS ON STREETS TO FIGHT VIRUS
Troops are to be deployed at hospitals and supermarkets
Troops are to be deployed at hospitals and supermarkets
By Glen Owen and Mark Nicol and Harry Cole for the Mail on Sunday
Ministers have drawn up plans to put troops on the streets to help deal with the coronavirus crisis after the number of deaths almost doubled within 24 hours.
In preparation for the worst-case scenario, defence sources told The Mail on Sunday that Army units were stepping up their training for public order roles – including the guarding of hospitals and supermarkets.
The Royal Logistics Corps are preparing to be used to escort food convoys and the Royal Army Medical Corps is poised to build tented field hospitals next to care homes.
Troops trained in chemical, biological and nuclear warfare will deep-clean empty public buildings in case they need to be turned in to hospitals or morgues.
And the Army has also drawn up contingency plans to keep petrol stations topped up with fuel when the country reaches 'peak virus'.
Defence sources told this newspaper that under the contingency plans, 38 military liaison officers would work with local councils to brief civil servants on how the Armed Forces could help combat the crisis.
The most essential staff, such as RAF Typhoon pilots, would be quarantined at work to ensure the UK's continued protection and the SAS's stand-by squadron would be held in the UK, rather than be deployed overseas.
If the crisis deepens, hundreds – possibly thousands – of troops could be deployed. Hundreds of members of the Armed Forces hold HGV licences and are trained in transporting hazardous loads such as fuel.
Members of the Royal Military Police would also support local constabularies, while troops could also be used to drive ambulances and fire engines.
As the COVID-19 pandemic continued to rock everyday life for millions around the world:
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies told the Government that it will soon need to start shielding the most vulnerable members of society and isolating entire households;
President Donald Trump announced the US travel ban would be extended to the UK from tomorrow;
Hundreds of Britons, many of them elderly, were stuck aboard a cruise ship in the Caribbean where five people have tested positive for the virus;
Spain and Poland closed their borders, stranding thousands of British holidaymakers, and France closed all non-essential public spaces such as cafes and cinemas;
Boris Johnson asked UK manufacturers to support the rapid, wartime-style production of essential medical kit, particularly ventilators, while the NHS will buy up beds in private hospitals;
Panic-buying led to extraordinary scenes at supermarkets across the country, prompting stores to plead with consumers to 'work together';
World Health Organisation spokesman Dr Margaret Harris questioned the British Government's strategy of delaying 'social distancing', arguing that it risked infecting millions;
Chancellor Rishi Sunak met insurance leaders amid a growing row over who will foot the bill for cancelled holidays;
It emerged that care homes and hospitals are likely to be 'cocooned' when the Easter lockdown comes into effect;
Three patients tested positive for Covid-19 at a hospital close to the Queen's Norfolk estate;
Downing Street underwent a 'deep clean' following a visit by Tory MP Nadine Dorries, who subsequently tested positive for the virus – but the Prime Minister has not been tested;
A group of Dutch scientists claimed to have found an antibody that may help detect and prevent the coronavirus from being able to infect people;
Experts predicted the Government could be forced to effectively nationalise airlines and train companies.
Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer for England, said the ten who died 'were in the at-risk groups' - which primarily comprises the elderly.
In a joint statement, chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof Whitty said: 'We are dealing with a very fast moving epidemic with emerging data from many disciplines and many complex decisions.
'Scientists across the world are helping each other, governments and society to deal with this international emergency.'
As Britain's epidemic worsens and panic grips the public, the government will deploy troops at hospitals and outside supermarkets.
Continued:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/ne...le-overnight-21.htmlMarch 15, 2020, 03:24 AM
BansheeOneWell, this was 25 February:
quote:
Originally posted by BansheeOne:
quote:
Originally posted by ensigmatic:
The only way we're going to find out is if it truly gets loose in a civilized country.
Which is why I tell people to watch Italy. In the last 24 hours, case count there has increased by about 100 to currently 322, and deaths by three to
ten eleven, both close to a 50 percent rise.
Now we got that box ticked, let's watch Spain.
quote:
Spain orders nationwide lockdown to battle coronavirus
Government instructs people to stay at home for two weeks from Monday, and closes bars, restaurants, cafes and cinemas
Sam Jones in Madrid
Sat 14 Mar 2020 14.58 GMT
First published on Sat 14 Mar 2020 14.25 GMT
The Spanish government has formally declared a state of emergency over the coronavirus, placing the country in lockdown and ordering people to stay at home for the next two weeks unless they have to buy food or medicine or go to work or hospital.
Speaking after a seven-hour cabinet meeting on Saturday evening, the prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said “extraordinary decisions” needed to be taken as Spain grappled with a “health, social and economic crisis”.
Spain is the country most affected by the coronavirus in Europe after Italy, and has so far confirmed 6,251 cases and 193 deaths. Italy has already taken similar measures.
Sánchez said the central government would direct the response and that all the local, national and regional police forces would come under the command of the interior ministry. He also said that the army was standing by and ready to help with the emergency response.
The prime minister confirmed that people would be required to stay home from Monday morning and that all non-essential shops would close, along with bars, restaurants, cafes and cinemas.
Supermarkets, small food shops, pharmacies, petrols stations and pet supply shops are among those businesses that will remain open.
He said: “During the state of emergency, people will only be allowed out on to public streets for the following reasons: to buy food, basic or pharmaceutical items; to attend medical centres; to go to and from work; to look after children, older people or those with disabilities or who are especially vulnerable; and to attend financial or insurance offices on force majeure grounds.”
Sánchez acknowledged that the measures needed to tackle the coronavirus would have a “big economic impact” but said the government was committed to mitigating its effects.
The emergency powers, set out in article 116 of the constitution, have not been used since 2010, when the article was enacted in response to an air traffic controllers’ strike.
The state of emergency will initially apply for a fortnight, but can be extended with parliamentary approval.
[...]
https://www.theguardian.com/wo...coronavirus-lockdownToday's CFR tracker:
Italy - 1,441 : 21,157 = 6.8 %
Iran - 611 : 12,729 = 4.8 % (FWIW)
South Korea - 75 : 8,162 = 0.9 %
Spain - 196 : 6,391 = 3.1 %
Germany - 9 : 4,599 = 0.2 %
France - 91 : 4,469 = 2.0 %
US - 60 : 3,043 = 2.0 %
Switzerland - 13 : 1,375 = 0.9 %
UK - 21 : 1,140 = 1.8 %
Norway - 3 : 1,111 = 0.3 %
March 15, 2020, 05:38 AM
BansheeOneBTW, while looking through my history for the old post above I found it's interesting to see how your take has evolved over this thread.
18 February:
quote:
We can't really extrapolate to that level. On one hand, most of the world's population doesn't have access to Western standards of healthcare like in France, Japan and Taiwan (not sure about the Philippines), so you could expect higher mortality than in the non-Chinese cases so far. On the other hand, since most infected appear to develop only symptoms of a mild cold, at best the flu (in flu season) and some seem never to fall ill at all, there's probably an unknown but potentially huge number who don't even suspect they are infected or see a doctor at all, were never tested and don't show up in any statistic. Just saw that from the number of mutations discovered so far, it is suspected that the total might be 200,000. So the ratio of total cases to deaths may be much higher, i. e. mortality much lower than even the currently calculated 0.5 percent outside China.
For comparison take measles, about the most contagious disease there is - on average any case infects twelve others, while Covid-19 is currently estimated at 1.8 to 3.5. About two-and-a-half million died worldwide of them every year until 1980 or so, when vaccinations available since the 60s began to make an impact in the developing world. Even today, mortality is 0.2 percent. We are quite sure of that because it's hard to mistake a case of the measles for something else.
I'm not saying Covid-19 should be disregarded, and I wouldn't like it to hit my family; both my parent's are in their 70s, my father is a stroke patient with a strained immune system from frequent infections due to impaired bodily functions, and my mother narrowly survived a recent acute lung edema which left her with a reduced capacity. But they are just as much at risk from getting a bad case of the flu; and in the great scheme of things, I'm more worried about the recent trend of a resurgence in measle cases due to a lapse in immunizations.
26 February:
quote:
And there we have it. 47-year-old man with pre-existing condition in North Rhine-Westphalia in critical condition and on ventilation with symptoms of severe pneumonia tested positive along with his wife. Unlike in the separate case of a 25-year-old tourist just returned from Italy, no likely source of infection has been established so far. I'm reminded to stock up on a supply of my regular meds.
1 March:
quote:
I'm coming back to the South Koreans, who are testing like crazy. And the more they test, and the more cases they find, the lower the fatality rate gets. On 25 February they had about 10:1,000 = 1.0 percent. On the 27th, they had 13:1,766 = 0.74. Yesterday it was 17:3,150 = 0.54. Today it's 17:3,526 = 0.48.
Of course some among the newer cases might eventually die, too; but I suspect when it's all sorted, there will be no more than the 0.4 percent fatalities of all known cases reported some time ago already for China outside Wubei province. And there are probably some, but I still have to see confirmed reports of significant numbers of healthy middle-aged people dying of this.
8 March:
quote:
Well, what a difference a week makes. Made pancakes for lunch yesterday, saw that I was running low on flour and thought I should get some new if possible. Sure enough, the shelves for pasta, rice and flour looked like the DDR had made a comeback; in fact there was a note they were currently only selling up to four packs per customer of certain stuff like flour and sugar "due to circumstances". Saw a guy with five sixpacks of water bottles in his cart and thought WTF, are you preparing for the zombie apocalypse? Masks and disinfectants get stolen from hospitals, too - sometimes from stocks only accessible to staff.
I mean I, too, have doubled my usual stocks of daily consumables, which among other things means I'm buying another pack of anything as soon as the last bottle of the first of two is going into the fridge. But even that is already luxury stockpiling just so I don't have to change my habits without bothering anyone else to supply me if I should get quarantined at home for two weeks - it's not like the water will stop running from the tap, and unlike the chlorinated stuff you sometimes have in the US, it's actually readily drinkable without feeling like you swallowed a swimming pool. I think people are falling for global pop culture memes.
In reality we're still doing okay, with zero deaths despite 900-plus cases. One is being reported as critical, a guy who was on immunosuppressiva to prepare for an organ transplant. I think this is still the 47-year-old at the root of the North Rhine-Westphalia cluster who had several hospital appointments prior to being diagnosed and was quickly put on life support. Meanwhile the current flu season in Germany (which officially started in the second week of 2020, quite concurrently with COVID-19) has had an estimated 2.6 million cases seeing a doctor, of which ca. 120,000 confirmed by lab tests, and more than 200 deaths.
Not to speak of the national 2017/18 season, the worst for 30 years, which saw about nine million cases and 25,000 deaths (CFR ca. 0.28 percent). That actually strained the German healthcare system pretty hard (not least because a lot of staff also fell sick), and we definitely don't need another similar sickness on top of that. Saw an expert warn we should increase the number of intensive care beds to prepare for a comeback of COVID-19 in fall after a decline in summer. What everybody wants to avoid is a concentrated spike overwhelming the system, so the countermeasures actually make sense despite the economic damage - a customer (caterer) told me last week that cancellation of the International Tourism Fair (since done) would be a real hit to the Berlin service sector.
9 March:
quote:
This bears repeating. Society will not collapse, there will be no bodies in the street, there will still be water and electricity, and there is no need to break into the national strategic toilet paper reserve. But read this Twitter thread about conditions in Italian hospitals because the spread wasn't stomped on early and hard:
https://twitter.com/silviast9/.../1236933818654896129
12 March:
quote:
I'm not worried for myself; as I keep saying, chances are I won't even notice if I get the bug since I have a chronically runny nose anyway, and my neck tends towards slight spinal stenosis, with effects that can feel like a bit of the flu sometimes, just without the fever. But I see also somewhat of a problem therein. As noted earlier, both my parents are at high risk, not just from being mid-70s; my mother narrowly survived a lung edema in December, and my father is a stroke patient with an appointment in two weeks to remove a kidney stone which is the likely culprit for repeated recent bouts of urosepsis.
Their area is so far clean, and I'm seriously considering not to travel home for Easter next month as usual, lest I unwittingly bring something with me from metropolitan Berlin. Would suck for them and me, but them catching the bug might suck a lot more.
14 March:
quote:
Well, we essentially cancelled Easter for the family. Berlin will probably close down all public venues and reduce public transport on Tuesday to at least 20 April to mitigate local spread. We're running emergency operations at the office from Monday, with only one person per room coming in, the rest working from home or field sales only, as far as there will still be appointments. I'm standing in for our office manager who has a public one-and-a-half-hour commute and will leave next month anyway, while I'm cycling to work. We had planned for her to work me in over a six-week period, but now two and remote support will have to do.