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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)

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https://sigforum.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/320601935/m/9320007564

March 13, 2020, 05:15 AM
r0gue
When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
quote:
Originally posted by chongosuerte:
We will be replenishing our cold and flu meds stock.


What do you recommend?
March 13, 2020, 05:30 AM
MNSIG
quote:
Originally posted by r0gue:

Just my personal opinion/estimation, but if the capacity of the health care system can keep up, we should see much lower death rates than 3%. But even at just 1/3rd of 1% (0.003), my math shows over a million deaths IF we cannot contain this, and it roams the whole nation. And there's no clear indication that we will at this point. Quite the opposite.


Your calculation assumes a 100% infection rate in the population. That just doesn't happen.
March 13, 2020, 05:33 AM
r0gue
quote:
Originally posted by MNSIG:
quote:
Originally posted by r0gue:

Just my personal opinion/estimation, but if the capacity of the health care system can keep up, we should see much lower death rates than 3%. But even at just 1/3rd of 1% (0.003), my math shows over a million deaths IF we cannot contain this, and it roams the whole nation. And there's no clear indication that we will at this point. Quite the opposite.


Your calculation assumes a 100% infection rate in the population. That just doesn't happen.


Ah! Very fair, thank you for that! I do work in healthcare, and the last few days of prep and somberness is rattling me.
March 13, 2020, 05:37 AM
feersum dreadnaught
quote:
Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
People are obviously rookies, you can wipe your ass just fine with Kleenex.


Pro tip - bidet toilet seats are not yet sold out. With air dry feature, no paper required...

https://www.amazon.com/Ultimat...TG9nQ2xpY2s9dHJ1ZQ==



NRA Life Member - "Fear God and Dreadnaught"
March 13, 2020, 05:40 AM
Oz_Shadow
I tried to pay for my meal at McDonalds with a roll of toilet paper. They threw in a couple apple pies and a happy meal toy.
March 13, 2020, 05:50 AM
holdem
quote:
Originally posted by GA Gator:
Youth baseball tournaments ARE NOT canceled in the Atlanta metro area. The schools are closed but ball games are still on (for now).


You might want to check again.

https://aausports.org/news.php?news_id=1875381

My daughter plays travel softball. All of the leagues she plays in (PGF, USSSA, NSA) fall under the purview of the AAU. She was supposed to play a USSSA tourney this weekend. We are waiting on an official announcement from USSSA, but I think it's a foregone conclusion at this point.
March 13, 2020, 05:50 AM
maladat
quote:
Originally posted by MNSIG:
quote:
Originally posted by r0gue:

Just my personal opinion/estimation, but if the capacity of the health care system can keep up, we should see much lower death rates than 3%. But even at just 1/3rd of 1% (0.003), my math shows over a million deaths IF we cannot contain this, and it roams the whole nation. And there's no clear indication that we will at this point. Quite the opposite.


Your calculation assumes a 100% infection rate in the population. That just doesn't happen.


You're right, but some epidemiologists have said they think the overall infection rate could be as high as 40-70% of the population of the US within the next year, given the observed transmission rates and lack of any existing immunity in the population (because there's no vaccine and no one has ever had it before).
March 13, 2020, 05:57 AM
Sig2340



First the DOW tanks. Now the damned cat.

I'm ruined.

Be sure to protect your investment!





Nice is overrated

"It's every freedom-loving individual's duty to lie to the government."
Airsoftguy, June 29, 2018
March 13, 2020, 06:18 AM
Oz_Shadow
quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
Snow Day, bitchezz


I’ve been saying this is like a snow day in the south especially when they start forecasting 8” or so. Everyone starts getting a bit excited feeling like something big is about to happen. The likely result is you get to stay home and watch it rain a bit while trying to figure out how to use all the damn groceries you bought.
March 13, 2020, 06:31 AM
sourdough44
If OH may have an estimated 100k cases of undiagnosed Corona cases, why all the shutdowns? It sounds like it will run it’s course regardless.

So far the 2009 outbreak was MUCH worse in the USA, never got near the fuss.
March 13, 2020, 06:33 AM
PowerSurge
quote:
Originally posted by sourdough44:
If OH may have an estimated 100k cases of undiagnosed Corona cases, why all the shutdowns? It sounds like it will run it’s course regardless.

So far the 2009 outbreak was MUCH worse in the USA, never got near the fuss.


That’s because people are becoming more and more emotional and less and less logical.


———————————————
The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God. Psalm 14:1
March 13, 2020, 07:06 AM
Skins2881
You know what is annoying the hell out of me? I'm mid kitchen remodel. Already been going on for seven months, probably not going to be completed for a while now.

I went ahead and installed the oven plug and set it in place. Put plywood on top of two of the cabinets. So now I can at least use the oven. I really want my kitchen done. Three years no dishwasher and seven months of cooking in my laundry room, plus whatever delay this will cause. I'm going to feel like a king whenever it's actually done.





Fun fact I have discovered, you can use a grill to cook just about anything.



Jesse

Sic Semper Tyrannis
March 13, 2020, 07:07 AM
WaterburyBob
quote:
Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
People are obviously rookies, you can wipe your ass just fine with Kleenex.
True, but flushing Kleenex can cause problems, as it doesn't dissolve as well as toilet paper.



"If Gun Control worked, Chicago would look like Mayberry, not Thunderdome" - Cam Edwards
March 13, 2020, 07:19 AM
gearhounds
quote:
Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
quote:
Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
People are obviously rookies, you can wipe your ass just fine with Kleenex.
True, but flushing Kleenex can cause problems, as it doesn't dissolve as well as toilet paper.

May seem to be overlooking the fact that they already own an alternative to a bidet and Kleenex should TP really become unobtainable. It’s already been mentioned in the thread. The shower. It won’t be fun or pretty and you’ll be using your soap faster than you like but it beats doing nothing. You can use TP more sparingly to blast the worst of the cling-ons and let soap and water finish the job. We’ve overcome bigger challenges as a species Big Grin




“Remember to get vaccinated or a vaccinated person might get sick from a virus they got vaccinated against because you’re not vaccinated.” - author unknown
March 13, 2020, 07:20 AM
wcb6092
Ohio's Top Health Official Says "We Believe 100,000 People" Already Infected With Covid-19 In State

https://www.zerohedge.com/poli...fected-covid-19-ohio

Ohio's top public-health official said during a press conference on Thursday where the state's governor announced a three-week closure of all schools in the state that her office estimates that as many as 117,000 people in the state have already been infected with the novel coronavirus.

During the press conference, a clip from which we've included below, Department of Health Director Amy Acton said that the virus has likely been spreading in the "community" of Ohio, and that, given the number of weeks it has likely been present, at least 1% of the state's population likely already have the virus.

"We know now based on the basic facts of community spread we know now that at the very least 1% of our population is carrying this virus...We have 11.7 million people, so that just gives you a sense of how this virus spreads, and how it's spreading quickly," Acton said.


_________________________
March 13, 2020, 07:28 AM
chellim1
quote:
You know what is annoying the hell out of me? I'm mid kitchen remodel. Already been going on for seven months, probably not going to be completed for a while now.

There ought to be a thread for that...
Or am I missing what your kitchen has to do with the coronavirus?

BTW: Nice oven.
Further thread drift: My wife recently had a small oven fire. She threw baking soda on it. That put out the fire, but wiped out the bake element. So, I know what it's like to be without an oven.



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
March 13, 2020, 07:35 AM
thunderson




I have the heart of a lion.......and a lifetime ban from the Toronto Zoo.- Unknown
March 13, 2020, 07:45 AM
Skins2881
quote:
Originally posted by chellim1:
quote:
You know what is annoying the hell out of me? I'm mid kitchen remodel. Already been going on for seven months, probably not going to be completed for a while now.

There ought to be a thread for that...
Or am I missing what your kitchen has to do with the coronavirus?

BTW: Nice oven.
Further thread drift: My wife recently had a small oven fire. She threw baking soda on it. That put out the fire, but wiped out the bake element. So, I know what it's like to be without an oven.


There is one in 'whats your deal'. Damn project has been going on for so long, it's probably auto pruned.

Connection = virus will probably add more delays. Trim Carpenter is supposed to be coming back on Wednesday for day two of punch out work, hopefully he remembers to bring all of his tools this time. Can't get the countertop guy to return my calls. Can't get backsplash or kitchen sink until countertops are installed. At least there's no Italian marble involved.

Connection #2 Lysol and hand wipes sitting on my plywood countertop.



Jesse

Sic Semper Tyrannis
March 13, 2020, 07:53 AM
chellim1
Gotcha. Best wishes that it's completed soon.



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
March 13, 2020, 08:08 AM
sdy
From Johns Hopkins




You can see why President Trump would stop travel from Europe.

Also can see U.S. west coast and east coast concentration

Italy and Iran are especially interactive w China

data at left is "confirmed" cases. Sometimes you will see data for "presumptive" cases. Normally this is a sequence: an initial positive from a lower reliability test would be "presumptive", then a follow on more accurate test would be "confirmed"