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Chinese Military Purges Hint at Unravelling Stability of Communist Leadership Probes and removal of senior officers considered allies of Xi Jinping are a sign of pervasive corruption and ruinous political infighting. Could President Trump's tariffs bring down the Chinese Communist Party? https://www.theepochtimes.com/...=latest-news-posts-0 | ||
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Optimistic Cynic |
As supportive as I am of PDJT's reforms, just asking this question implies too much credit. Instead, I'll suggest that the Communist philosophy, not to mention its practices contains a self-administered poison that eventually dooms it as a political force. Those using "the greater good" as an excuse to justify their lust for power will inevitably have it backfire on them. Of course the CCP (like the leftists in our country) will try to blame anyone but themselves for their disintegration, but it is only their own greed and perspective that is responsible. | |||
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| Thank you Very little  |
Its entirely possible that the tariffs are a catalyst, by upsetting their fragile economic system it can be of major concern to the military, because if China isn't getting it's full revenue, the military won't get the funding it needs. So leaders could be concerned about the CCP's decisions to fight Trump/USA on this and get in an economic war with the biggest buyer of their products. | |||
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Member |
Don't forget corruption is rampant in China, so anything that disrupts routine payments to any number of parties is potentially destabilizing. Remember that old expression about breaking "rice bowls". | |||
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Member |
I agree with you. I believe anyone reading Atlas Shrugged in the 1950s-60s could have predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, but I have no doubt that Reagan's policies hastened the USSR's demise by a number of years. Likewise, I believe that Trump could be having the same effect on China. Not bringing about its unraveling, but putting the process into overdrive. . | |||
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Sadly, human life has little to no value in ChiCom land. Human wave attacks in Korea showed this, as an example. The same philosophy generally goes in their industrial base. The manufacturers "pay" their workers with food. No work = no food = starvation / death. In the last 50 or less years (probably since Nixon made his visit), the Chinese economy has shifted from agricultural to industrial. I would guess that there are more factory workers than farmers now. Through various trade agreements, etc., the US and other countries took advantage of cheap labor / cheap products and helped to create this shift. Of course the CCP saw this as an opportunity to make lots of money and build up their military. And just like every commie government, the party leaders and "upper class" are also the benefactors, while the masses are the "fuel" for this economy. Remember the phrase in Orwell's "Animal Farm" - "Some pigs are more equal than others". So, if the impacts of US tariffs slow down this manufacturing, some factories slow down or stop, and people don't eat. Hungry people can get desperate. How many times in history have we seen this? So, the control that the CCP has over the masses is precariously there - for the moment. I don't know how well I explained it, but hopefully you get the idea. JMHO. | |||
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Political Cynic |
I think thats an accurate assessment | |||
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The CCP also invited President Reagan over in the mid-eighties to discuss capitalism/free market principles. Since then, they have attempted to have one foot in each philosophy, combining private ownership of business with the iron-fisted control of communism. This may be what has allowed them to last this long as an authoritarian state. EDIT: This is an excerpt of President Reagan's first public remarks after he returned from China. ------------------- I feel that we have progress to report. I had long and thoughtful meetings with the Chinese leadership, comprehensive meetings. We each listened carefully to what the other had to say. We discussed and agreed to cooperate more closely in the areas of trade, investment, technology, and exchanges of scientific and managerial expertise. We concluded an important agreement on the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. We agreed that in this imperfect world, peace in its most perfect form cannot always be reached -- but it must always be our goal. And we, the people of China and the United States, must make our best efforts to bring greater harmony between our two countries. It's a good thing for the world when those who are not allies remain open to each other. And it's good to remember that competitors sometimes have mutual interests, and those interests can make them friends. I told the Chinese leaders, as I told the students at Shanghai University yesterday, that we must continue to acknowledge our differences, for a friendship based on fiction will not long withstand the rigors of the world. But we agreed that there is much to be gained from mutual respect. And there's much to be gained on both sides from expanded opportunities in trade and commerce and cultural relations. I was heartened by some of the things that we saw. The Chinese have begun opening up their economy, allowing more farmers and workers to keep and sell on their own some of the fruits of their labor. The first injection of free market spirit has already enlivened the Chinese economy. I believe it has also made a contribution to human happiness in China and opened the way to a more just society. Yesterday, before we left, we sat in a Chinese home at one of the now-called townships -- they were once called communes -- the farm communes where they raise the foodstuffs for all of China, but now there is a difference. They owe a portion of what they produce to the government, but then over and above that they can produce on their own and sell in a free marketplace. And in this home, it was most interesting. This young couple, their little son, his mother and father living with them, and he was telling us all the things -- and he built that home himself, and a very fine job it was -- and then told us of how they're saving and what they're saving to buy next. It could have been in any home in America, talking about the problems of making ends meet and that they were saving for this or that for their future. And I was also impressed -- not only by them but by all of the Chinese that we met -- by their curiosity about us. Many of the Chinese people still don't understand how our democracy works or what impels us as a people. So, I did something unusual. I tried to explain what America is and who we are -- to explain to them our faith in God and our love, our true love, for freedom. They'll never understand us until they understand that. ------------------- Full Remarks, complete with the President's wonderful humor. https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/...upon-returning-china . | |||
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goodheart |
I’m no expert on China for sure; but Michael Pillsbury is. Levin had him on a couple of weeks ago, and he was definitely in favor of Trump’s moves to counter China. Gordon Chang has been predicting the fall of Communist China for decades, so his record is not so good. The Epoch Times is good—I read it regularly online, my wife reads the whole weekly newspaper when it comes. But they are so biased against the Chico’s-for very good reason—that one needs to be a little skeptical about their reporting of the internal situation in mainland China. It wasn’t that long ago that China had turned its back on the militant, hyper-nationalist tendencies that Xi has brought back; and now that Trump has redirected our military, diplomatic and trade policies to counter these aggressive moves by China, one can only hope that Xi will be forced out, and perhaps be replaced by someone more moderate like Deng. _________________________ “Remember, remember the fifth of November!" | |||
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| Left-Handed, NOT Left-Winged! |
About 1/3 - 1/2 of Chinese still live in villages doing farming and other rural work. The land sucks, floods a lot, and rice farming is very labor intensive. The rest of them are in cities and a lot work in manufacturing. At the ground level China is very capitalist. Most companies making consumer goods are not government owned. People are not paid in food, they get a paycheck and will move to other jobs to make a better wage. But there is no unemployment insurance, no labor unions, and little to no "welfare". If you don't work, you don't get paid, and you don't eat. And the govt doesn't much tolerate beggars and panhandlers. The government owns or has a significant stake in: oil/gas, rail, power, defense, aircraft, ship building, and other "strategic" businesses. They have partial ownership of other businesses, but most of the stuff we get from China is from private businesses, some publicly held, some joint ventures with foreign investment. Of course, any business may have to hire some "party" people who don't really do much real work, just keep tabs on things and report back to the party. What we will see now is a sudden drop in U.S. orders and exports. Many factories will have to lay off people or even close. They cannot pay bills with no revenue so it will snowball up through the supply chain. How big of an effect the tariffs have depends on how many exceptions we make. Already the administration has excepted finished electronic goods so Apple and other American companies do not suffer. Some companies like Nike that sell their product for many times the manufacturing cost (most of Nike's costs are marketing) will be able to absorb the tariffs in the short term. They will still continue to move to Vietnam and other SE Asian countries, but faster now. But really, China is not Soviet, and any statement equating China of the 1950's to today is absurd. Yes human life does have value, and the average person just wants to work and take care of family and wants a decent life, like anyone anywhere else. Safety standards and behavior are much better in China than say, India, but still behind the West. Standards of living have risen dramatically in the past 40 years due to massive foreign investment in factories and good decisions by the govt to build infrastructure to support the factories. To the average visitor to China, it doesn't seem much different than any other "capitalist" country, and you really don't see much presence of government or even police. And that's because China IS capitalist in many respects, but with single party control and no individual rights. Wages have not grown as much as they did in the U.S., Europe, Japan, and South Korea during industrialization, so it's still a struggle for the average person. Lack of wage growth is due to the large population, no labor unions or collective bargaining, and a classist social structure that pays managers and executives much more than workers. Salary jumps between levels are much higher than they are here. The people have accepted rule by the CCP so long as things have gotten better, and they have. Since 1991 China has grown and improved an order of magnitude more than Russia for example. But if unemployment jumps and people can't afford to live then there will be unrest. Xi may be forced out of power or otherwise disposed of to allow a more "liberal" leadership that is less belligerent. China allying with Russia and Iran is a huge mistake - they should be looking to be a friend of the US and not an enemy, and this will eventually lead to Xi's undoing.This message has been edited. Last edited by: Lefty Sig, | |||
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I think you have accurately described China, as I have been there 13 times. The one thing you didn't mention was the severe real estate market crash. Many of the high-density housing units that the Chinese government built is vacant. | |||
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| Left-Handed, NOT Left-Winged! |
Thanks, I lost exact count of how many times I've been there since 2011 but it's been over 30. Most recently this January. The real estate situation is hard to get a really good handle on from here. They way overbuilt because the provinces can only really make money by leasing land (they can't tax, only the central government can), and the government banks loan the developers the money for construction, and then also provide mortgages to buyers. And construction employs people and requires purchase of materials from suppliers, and thus adds to GDP. Chinese really like to invest in real estate so that helped prop things up for a while. Banks and the Chinese stock market are not very trustworthy. There was a chance the govt could engineer a de-leveraged "soft landing" but now that is going to be a lot more difficult if unemployment surges due to the tariffs. Some big developers defaulted on debt in the last couple years because they were using the money from purchased units to build new ones and not to finish the ones they already started. In China you can get a mortgage on a unit that doesn't actually exist. Xi put limits on this but it was too late and in the short term it made things worse, although it is better for long term. The whole investment driven economy is a house of cards anyway. Foreign investment is down 99%, there are more houses than needed, and also a lot of high speed rail that cannot pay for itself. | |||
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SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge Chinese Military Purges Hint at Unravelling Stability of Communist Leadership
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