We all know the price of wood is going through the roof, 3/4" plywood $60

Was in Home Depot and walked down the electrical isle and by the romex.

12/2, 250' was a whopping $122.00
10/2, 250' was a shameful $245.68

In July of 2020, the prices were 58.41 and 123.84 respectively.

All these insane prices are going to come to a head sooner or later. No wonder the housing market is crazy, you can't afford to build a house at today's material prices!

I noticed that about Romex over the weekend as well.

Crazy!

 
A member over on the Garage Journal forums posted a picture of his dustpan, with a couple little pieces of particle board and some sawdust. Others commented that value of that bit of scrap was about $30.

IMO the main cause for the shortage and consequent high building material prices is low interest along with rising inflation. Interest needs to go up.

It's bad enough on a remodel project. Incredible effect on a new build. I just hope for all the buyers out there that this isn't a housing bubble that's going to pop. But I have my fears.

quote:

Originally posted by Excam_Man:
All these insane prices are going to come to a head sooner or later.

My question is, then what?

The way I see it is that these outfits have discovered that people will pay what they are charging regardless of how insane it is. Now that they know this, I can't imagine the prices coming back down to a reasonable level. Why would they?

If I can sell widgets for $1000, why would I only charge $100 for them?

That is going to be a real problem for us coming up.... Homebuilders were absorbing the increased material costs for a while but that is not sustainable anymore.

Between the lumber shortage/inflation, resin shortage, steel products inflation, the housing market is in wood a world of hurt. Not only with the price increase but availability.

During the last year, factories were being shuttered because of COVID while housing production never stopped as housing construction was deemed essential. One of the lumber reports we receive noted there needs to be a pause in the lumber orders so supply can catch up.

If not, there will be a huge default on supply commitments: meaning, home builders will not get their orders and home delivery dates will slide.

They also noted that there will be 5 mills that will be coming on line by the end of 2022 so that will help with lumber supplies.

The new housing market is going to be in for a rough ride over the next year +.

We were hoping that lumber was going to return to some normalcy by the end of this year but that is looking too optimistic now....

My wife was talking to a neighbor that is remodeling her house. The lady told her that she's having a problem getting painting done, seems there is no paint available, her son is a painting contactor!

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Gustofer:

The way I see it is that these outfits have discovered that people will pay what they are charging regardless of how insane it is. Now that they know this, I can't imagine the prices coming back down to a reasonable level. Why would they?

Because if cannot be sustained is why. If people stop buying. The demand plunges. Prices fall. How it works.

A) Wood doesn't make sense, in most/maybe all, places as a building material. TMK, its mostly just use out of inertia/familiarity.

B) All costs are skyrocketing. The CPI is manipulated/skewed by electronics. The Manufacturer's price index is rising pretty rapidly.

C) Bitcoin is too awkward to conduct small transaction business in, but much of the world is switching to crypto currencies, to avoid issues w. local banks/currency. (I really think that's what fuels bitcoin, along w. silliness. Lots of wealth is being generated in Asia/Africa/India right now - and I wouldn't want to trust any of their banking systems.)

Still cannot see why Apple/Google have not launched a coin product. Once a major company launches one w. a rapid transaction speed, and a 1% or less processing charge, or the US launches a digital dollar, most small nations would lose their currency/banking would change, dramatically.

I think in the next 20 years, we will see a disconnect between retail pricing, and local fiat currency in most of the world. (Barring the handful of the strongest.)

D) Some of it is a real increase in demand. A BILLION people moved out of poverty in the last 20 years, or so. All of those people will want proper houses, clothes, better living conditions, etc. Barring stupidity on the part of the crony/political class/overwhelming criminality/cultural stupidity (The Arabs and Indians will always have squalor and oppression, IMO), global living standards will equalize.

We have several projects that are set to get started here within the next few months. Multifamily dwellings with multiple buildings per project. Our project manager's are beginning to buy out the projects and are dealing with the issues currently. We have some who are buying out now while other's are hoping prices begin to fall. The smaller project is costing 450k over budget in lumber alone while we are anticipating the larger project to be closer to 1 million in lumber by the time it's said and done. Personally I foresee investor's beginning to hold off on additional projects until the material costs begin to drop. We haven't even seen the start of the effects from the increase in costs.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: 98XJRC,

I spoke to a major supplier of all manner of lumber products yesterday. They get containers of stuff right off the ships but the cost of shipping has skyrocketed. Some ships can't get out of ports around the world for various reasons. He tells me that the U.S. is going to run out of plywood this summer. He told me there is a confluence of problems, some I had never considered, like the glue plant that supplies the glue for OSB not being able to get the chemicals they need to make the glue. COVID takes its toll. They are actually selling cabinet grade hardwood plywood to contractors who are using it for sheathing on houses because they can't get OSB or construction grade sheathing. It's not just ammo. We are living in interesting times.

quote:

Originally posted by HayesGreener:
COVID takes its toll. They are actually selling cabinet grade hardwood plywood to contractors who are using it for sheathing on houses because they can't get OSB or construction grade sheathing. It's not just ammo. We are living in interesting times.

Cabinet grade hardwood plywood is generally not rated for exterior use.

quote:

Originally posted by henryaz:

quote:

Originally posted by HayesGreener:
COVID takes its toll. They are actually selling cabinet grade hardwood plywood to contractors who are using it for sheathing on houses because they can't get OSB or construction grade sheathing. It's not just ammo. We are living in interesting times.

Cabinet grade hardwood plywood is generally not rated for exterior use.

But it is very pretty.

We just replaced all 9 windows, 9' slider, entire front entryway (door, side window, and frame), removed all T1-11 and replaced it with zip board and Celect lap siding over it.

We looked at companies last summer and signed a contract in July with a start date in late sept. Between when they quoted us the job and when they placed the order for materials the prices had jumped enough to put the job in the red.

They are a large, stand up company and did the job as contracted, I only found out that they lost money on the job from a sub they brought in to do the Celect siding.

I have lunch with the sub now and then and last week we were talking about me replacing the back deck and he said I should do it now and suck up the increased costs or put it off until late 2022 at the earliest. He thinks that the prices will continue to go up as supply dries up until until the cost drives down the demand and that will give the supply chain time to catch up and then prices will start to balance out. He has already moved his company out of the residential market and into commercial properties.

We really need to gut and install a complete new kitchen as ours dates from 1951 and is UUUUGLY. We have decided to wait 15-18 months as the contractor is booked up pretty solid for the next year anyway and materials costs are insane.

Hopefully in 18 months they aren't EVEN MORE insane.

Back in August 2020 a big oak tree that was on the property line between my house and the folks that live behind me tipped over in a storm and landed on their house. It took weeks to complete the estimate and it came to roughly $78,000. To date, not a single contractor has taken Allstate's estimate and run with it. The owners had Allstate's estimate audited (for lack of a better word) a couple of weeks ago and the builder said the job couldn't be done for under $92,000. All of the increase was due to increased material costs since August 2020. That house has been empty and the people living in an apartment for 8 months now.

I put a new roof on last year. It was just over 12K total.

My neighbor, who has the same exact home as me, got a quote from the same contractor and same GAF shingles/system this week - 17K. (both homes 17 years old)

I saw a contractor on TV say that increases in lumber prices have increased the cost of a new house by $30K per house.