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. . .The alarmists’ lack of interest in scientific forecasting procedures and the evidence from opinion polls (Pew Research Center 2008) have led us to conclude that global warming is a political movement in the U.S. and elsewhere (Klaus 2009). It is a product of advocacy, rather than of the scientific testing of multiple hypotheses. . .we have identified 26 analogous alarmist situations in the past. . . None of these alarming forecasts were correct. Twenty-five of them called for government intervention. In the 23 cases where interventions occurred, none were effective. The policy changes caused harm in 20 of the cases. . .

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The validity of the
manmade global warming alarm requires the support of scientific forecasts of
( 1) a substantive long-term rise in global mean temperatures in the absence of regulations,
(2) serious net harmful effects due to global warming, and
(3) cost-effective regulations that would produce net beneficial effects versus alternatives such as doing nothing.
Without scientific forecasts for all three aspects of the alarm, there is no scientific basis to enact regulations.
In effect, it is a three-legged stool. Despite repeated appeals to global warming alarmists, we
have been unable to find scientific forecasts for any of the three legs.
We drew upon scientific (evidence-based)
forecasting principles to audit the forecasting
procedures used to forecast global mean temperatures by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) –leg “1” of the stool. This audit found that the procedures violated 81% of the 89 relevant forecasting principles
We also did an audit of the forecasting procedures used for two papers that were designed to support proposed regulation related to protecting polar bears – leg “3” of the stool.
On average, these procedures violated 85% of the 90 relevant principles.

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We then turned to the “structured analogies” method to forecast the likely outcomes of this movement. In this ongoing study, we have, to date, identified 26 historical alarmist movements. None of
the forecasts for the analogous alarms proved correct. In the 25 alarms that called for
government intervention, the government impost regulations in 23. None of the 23 interventions was effective and harm was caused by 20 of them.