In the early 1990s, British polling companies that had failed to predict a conservative political win, coined the term “shy Tory factor,” to account for conservatives being unwilling to admit their voting preference to pollsters. Since then, the problem is a common one across the West because conservatives feel beleaguered and disfavored. Thanks to the Democrats’ fanatic anti-MAGA sentiment, which saw Joe Biden demonize Republicans as the enemies of “democracy” (which to Joe means “the Democrat party”), conservatives are shyer than ever before.
Robert Cahaly is the chief pollster for Trafalgar Group, which has been, not just an accurate pollster, but an actual pollster: That is, it really seeks to discern public trends, as opposed to those companies that do push polling to move public trends. He put out a series of tweets regarding the fact that, when it comes to polls, MAGA conservatives have gone almost completely underground (h/t Twitchy):
In 2016 Trump supporters were called “Deplorables” and other unflattering names. This was a major contributor to the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon that “most” polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.
In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with “Woke” culture found themselves being “canceled” or “doxed”. This led to “hidden voters” that “most” polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations.
Now that the Biden administration has essentially classified “MAGA Republicans” as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.
I call this new group “submerged voters”. They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls. At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on “MAGA Republicans” has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.
The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing. All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these “submerged voters”.
--------------------- DJT-45/47 MAGA !!!!!
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it." — Mark Twain
“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.” — H. L. Mencken
With weeks remaining to the midterms, Comrade Biden declares COVID pandemic is over. Now isn't that convenient?
September 18, 2022, 08:12 PM
Balzé Halzé
quote:
Originally posted by tigereye313:
...Biden declares COVID pandemic is over.
That's cute.
~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country
Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan
September 19, 2022, 12:50 AM
bigdeal
quote:
Originally posted by sdy: polls are getting tight for Arizona senate race
Incumbent DEM Mark Kelly versus REP Blake Masters.
Trafalgar poll has Kelly only 1 % up on Masters
And didn't McConnell and his cast of GOP clowns pull something like $8m of campaign funding away from Arizona? Kinda makes one wonder if McConnell really wants to win the senate back.
----------------------------- Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter
September 19, 2022, 08:49 AM
Balzé Halzé
~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country
Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan
September 19, 2022, 09:17 AM
sse
quote:
Originally posted by PASig: Biden and his handlers celebrate the laughably named "Inflation Reduction Act" which will work JUST as well as the "Affordable Care Act" which sent my yearly deductible from $600 to $6,000
They cannot escape this in November:
This needs to be more widely published.
September 19, 2022, 09:47 AM
mojojojo
quote:
Originally posted by tigereye313: With weeks remaining to the midterms, Comrade Biden declares COVID pandemic is over. Now isn't that convenient?
Cool. Someone tell my employer so we can quite wearing these f*#@king masks all day!
Icarus flew too close to the sun, but at least he flew.
September 19, 2022, 10:14 AM
Balzé Halzé
This fucking guy.
"First of all, let's put this into perspective. Inflation rate month to month is up just an inch...hardly at all."
Inflation is at 8.3%, you empty-headed shit sack!
~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country
Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan
September 19, 2022, 10:20 AM
HRK
quote:
Originally posted by sse:
quote:
Originally posted by PASig: Biden and his handlers celebrate the laughably named "Inflation Reduction Act" which will work JUST as well as the "Affordable Care Act" which sent my yearly deductible from $600 to $6,000
They cannot escape this in November:
This needs to be more widely published.
All you need to do is diet and buy an electric car, and stay home....
September 19, 2022, 10:55 AM
vthoky
... and be ready to be cold this winter.
God bless America.
September 19, 2022, 11:02 AM
sse
quote:
Originally posted by HRK:
quote:
Originally posted by sse:
quote:
Originally posted by PASig: Biden and his handlers celebrate the laughably named "Inflation Reduction Act" which will work JUST as well as the "Affordable Care Act" which sent my yearly deductible from $600 to $6,000
They cannot escape this in November:
This needs to be more widely published.
All you need to do is diet and buy an electric car, and stay home....
Reminds me of being a captive inhabitant of a socialist country. Token creature comforts, no liberty...like a goldfish swimming around the fish bowl.
September 19, 2022, 11:35 AM
V-Tail
quote:
Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
Inflation is at 8.3%, you empty-headed shit sack!
How about we show a little respect? That's Mister shit sack!
quote:
Originally posted by HRK:
All you need to do is diet and buy an electric car, and stay home.
While you're home, be sure that you don't use any electric power or dinosaur fuel to heat or cool your house.
הרחפת שלי מלאה בצלופחים
September 19, 2022, 12:13 PM
BigSwede
September 19, 2022, 07:26 PM
Balzé Halzé
Persona non grata.
Joe Biden forced to wait for seat after apparent late arrival at Queen’s funeral
...
The US president took his seat behind Andrzej Duda, the president of Poland, and in front of Petr Fiala, the prime minister of the Czech Republic. Sitting to her husband’s left, Jill Biden sat next to Ignazio Cassis, the president of Switzerland.
~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country
Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan
September 19, 2022, 08:00 PM
wcb6092
_________________________
September 20, 2022, 10:37 AM
parabellum
He's about the last guy we would ever want framing our foreign policy and risking war with his dangerous, empty talk. He needs to just be quiet before he really steps in it.
Anyway, it's apparent Biden is not running things.
