Bitcoin is way too expensive as far as I am concerned. Any thoughts about putting maybe one thousand or so (small change I know) in another cheaper virtual currency? I know there are others besides bitcoin.

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
Beyond the normal gun control being a policy issue for the Dem as it usually is, with the sacking of the capital, they are now genuinely pissed off at conservatives, and likely want to make a forceful statement. Blowing away the filibuster (which a lot of the insurgent left really wants to do), and passing a very draconian gun control law would make that statement.

I do not believe that the senate would be able to get the votes to eliminate the filibuster. All it would take is one of the less radical dems like Manchin to side with the republicans and that pipe dream is over. I think most of the astute members of the senate realize that the main reason for them to get rid of the filibuster would be for them to pass gun control measures. There are enough democratic senators from pro gun states to prevent the elimination of the filibuster for that reason. Even the lukewarm republicans like Murkowski know they can’t touch gun control or they won’t get re-elected, so I see the GOP sticking together to prevent the elimination of the filibuster and at least one democrat voting to keep the filibuster. And don’t think for a second that there aren’t plenty of democrats that are kicking themselves for getting rid of the filibuster for appointments. Kavanaugh and certainly Barret would never have been appointed to SCOTUS had the dems not played with fire previously.

Also we now have a solid 5-4 majority on the SCOTUS. I really don’t see court packing getting through for the SCOTUS, maybe other federal courts but not the Supreme Court. So any draconian gun law passed is going to make its way to SCOTUS where it would likely be thrown out. I’m not saying that we can rest, and I’m not saying that there aren’t dangers of bad things happening but I really don’t think we need to start panicking yet.

Skins you made my point. He sold on way down. Thought it would go lower. He thought 15, it got to 17. But it came back quick and he missed coming back in. It’s a suckers game. For every win you hear about you don’t hear the stories of the losses. It’s like gamblers. You never hear the downside.

I don’t know if this is true but the old adage is that there are like a handful of DAYS every year that if you miss, you miss the bulk of the yearly gain.

Market time knowing the risk. Diversify instead. Spread your risk according to your ability to stomach swings.

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:

quote:

Originally posted by Dwill104:

quote:

Originally posted by lkdr1989:
VP will be the tie-breaker, so in reality there is no 50-50 tie in the Senate.

Actually there is. You need all 50 Dems to get to the tie-breaker. If you only get 49 Dems, it doesn’t get to the VP to break the tie because then it’s 49-51.

I think you are wasting your breath. People want gloom and doom. Don’t bring facts into it.

Very true.

2 points are completely disconnected but absolutely on point.


They’ve been planning for a Biden victory and the Dems getting both houses for a year now. One truth is that business will find a way to make money, no matter who’s in Washington.



This year I will sell off more to pay taxes now rather than under the higher tax rate I expect to see.


our betters make money when the stock market climbs or falls. Expect them to move money to where it will make more or be taxed less. the OP's stocks will climb or fall depending on the luck of his alignment with todays robber barons.

quote:

Originally posted by pedropcola:
In middle of COVID my buddy decided to go all or mostly cash. Probably sold off most in low 20’s. It’s at 30 now. Market timing is a ridiculous gamble that none are smart enough to play.

I always ask one question when someone asks this question. If this is the variables that will get you into cash, what criterion will you use to get back in the market? If you think you have a good answer then go for it. Almost no one has a good answer and you will sit on sideline with cash through a lot if gains.

This in spades. I have thought for many years already even if you are retired, you need to keep some money in the market if you can. The days of living off of the interest from CDs and Bonds are long gone. When the market is going down, that's the time to buy although mentally it's really hard to do in the midst of herd panic.

The key is diversification and dollar cost averaging in my opinion, and keeping your head instead of panicking. Seriously, if the world is going to end and it all goes Thunderdome, what damn difference does it make whether you have cash or stocks or even gold. It'll all be worthless.

I'm not going to. Think long term and keep your emotions out of it. People who lose money are the ones that react to a decline and get out, thus securing their loss. Hold fast and you will be rewarded. The only people who right now should be concerned are the ones very close to retirement age.

quote:

Originally posted by dave7378:
I'm not going to. Think long term and keep your emotions out of it. People who lose money are the ones that react to a decline and get out, thus securing their loss. Hold fast and you will be rewarded. The only people who right now should be concerned are the ones very close to retirement age.

What about those of us already in retirement? Our investment "window" is a bit different.

Years ago I had a grad class in political economics. The prof noted meetings between the premier economist of his day, John Maynard Keynes, and Pres FDR. Reportedly Keynes commented "Roosevelt is a brilliant politician, but knows nothing of economics'. And FDR commented "Keynes is a brilliant economist, but knows nothing of politics".

The Prof then introduced the class "politics and economics are dovetailed, what happens in one will always influence the other".

Given the socialistic nature of the incoming administration, and the pattern that socialism always degrades the economy, I am not sure the years ahead will be rosy. But that doesn't mean to sell out now.

If you are in retirement your version of diversification is different than a 40 or 50 year olds. The point made above though is still true. You ideally have enough in a liquid-ish state to weather downturns but still keep some in the market. Do the math, if you can keep a portion of your portfolio in the market during retirement it doesn’t take many years to vastly increase your portfolio. If it’s all in cash or similar the tap is one way. And that way is down.

It’s one reason the wealthy stay wealthy. They are never completely out of active investing. If you can afford to, neither should you.

quote:

Originally posted by pedropcola:
If you are in retirement your version of diversification is different than a 40 or 50 year olds. The point made above though is still true. You ideally have enough in a liquid-ish state to weather downturns but still keep some in the market. Do the math, if you can keep a portion of your portfolio in the market during retirement it doesn’t take many years to vastly increase your portfolio. If it’s all in cash or similar the tap is one way. And that way is down.

It’s one reason the wealthy stay wealthy. They are never completely out of active investing. If you can afford to, neither should you.

Again, I am not saying get out of the market. I do know some people who have their investments split, half in the market, half in rental residential real estate. They have done better in real estate. (But such laws re rentals and tenant rights differ from state to state. And residential rentals take a lot more work than putting $$ in the market. I wouldn't do any residential rental in CA, the laws are too pro-tenant).

Your advice to hold on through the downturns is what my first portfolio manager told me. I lost 50% of my retirement under him. My wife worked the front office of an investment advisor, who now manages our portfolio. I do think diversification is important. Such will likely limit a vast increase in value, but will also minimize potential losses.

I have a friend who lives quite well, works only part time, he flips houses in Silicon Valley.

That said, I am not fully confident in a robust socialist economy.

-Diversification is a good idea in any climate.
-And I like mutual funds in uncertain times.
-Until interest rates go up I think momentum is king.

Here is an interesting read on stocks in a democratic presidency.
Motley Fool

quote:

Originally posted by Scoutmaster:

quote:

Originally posted by dave7378:
I'm not going to. Think long term and keep your emotions out of it. People who lose money are the ones that react to a decline and get out, thus securing their loss. Hold fast and you will be rewarded. The only people who right now should be concerned are the ones very close to retirement age.

What about those of us already in retirement? Our investment "window" is a bit different.

Years ago I had a grad class in political economics. The prof noted meetings between the premier economist of his day, John Maynard Keynes, and Pres FDR. Reportedly Keynes commented "Roosevelt is a brilliant politician, but knows nothing of economics'. And FDR commented "Keynes is a brilliant economist, but knows nothing of politics".

The Prof then introduced the class "politics and economics are dovetailed, what happens in one will always influence the other".

Given the socialistic nature of the incoming administration, and the pattern that socialism always degrades the economy, I am not sure the years ahead will be rosy. But that doesn't mean to sell out now.

Well hopefully you have a good idea of what type of risk you can tolerate. The closer you get to retirement, the more conservative your investments should be, typically. It's a hard question to answer not knowing your age, what your financial position is, what types of stocks you have and what your goals are. Is the money you have invested "play" money or will you rely on it to live on? Would losing it put you in a bad postion? Do you plan on leaving money to heirs or would you like to bounce the last check ? Lots to consider.

quote:

Originally posted by dave7378:. . . Well hopefully you have a good idea of what type of risk you can tolerate. The closer you get to retirement, the more conservative your investments should be, typically. It's a hard question to answer not knowing your age, what your financial position is, what types of stocks you have and what your goals are. Is the money you have invested "play" money or will you rely on it to live on? Would losing it put you in a bad postion? Do you plan on leaving money to heirs or would you like to bounce the last check ? Lots to consider.

I am going to cash out, put everything on one ticket in the California lottery. If I lose, Uncle Joe (or Aunt Kamala) will take care of me.

I don't think they can allow interest rates to go up. I also believe the Democrats will vote in lock step as they have been.
Now that they cut communications I believe they will start building castles to subject the peasants. These will be section 8 high density housing in the traditional suburbs.
We continue to underestimate them and their long term goals.
I just bought into China growth stocks and healthcare. I guess we will see.

No Bitcoin for me. I'll take some old fashion Gold bullion and GLD ETF instead (go-ahead and flame me).

I also have tobacco stocks in my portfolio (BTI, MO, PM). Oh, almost forgot, please buy more McRib's to help my MCD position. A cigarette and a McRib seem made for each other.

I also own some evil Oil pipeline stock (KMI)down in Texas so you know I'm beyond redemption...

Thanks for your consideration...