Heard before this was happening that there is a fertilizer shortage and prices are quaduple what they were last year. Many farmers are switching from corn to soybean because corn is a heavy fertilizer user. Cattle farmers say they may not be able to fertilize their hay feilds.


https://www.theepochtimes.com/...wy9sbFznVMRA0EofShFj

The city of Winston-Salem is working to evacuate 6,500 people as fears grow a smoldering fertilizer plant might explode near thousands of homes.

Fire trucks patrolled the mandatory evacuation area early Tuesday, blowing their horns and loudspeakers blasting a warning for people to evacuate as quickly as possible.

The mass exodus is due to a potentially explosive fire at the Weaver Fertilizer Co. in north Winston-Salem.

Just under 2,500 homes are within a mile of the plant, which stores tons of explosive materials as part of its products, the city said in a tweet.

Residents being are told to plan on being out of their homes for at least 48 hours, and roadblocks have been established around the area. A “reverse 911 call” went out at 6 a.m. Tuesday, to reach those who hadn’t yet left their homes.

The Education Building at the community’s fairgrounds has been opened as an emergency shelter, officials said.

“Don’t wait for something to happen. Something has happened. Now is the time to get out,” Winston-Salem Fire Chief Trey Mayo wrote in a tweet just after midnight.

City officials are also warning people in the city as a whole to “avoid strenuous activities outdoors” due to the toxic air. People with asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and respiratory illnesses were advised to stay indoors.

The smoke plume—which smells like “spent fireworks”—was expected to drift southwest Tuesday, to downtown Winston-Salem and Wake Forest University.

“Air quality will be poor,” officials said in a Facebook post.

Weaver Fertilizer released a recorded statement Tuesday, reporting “there have been no injuries or loss of life to any employees, first responders or citizens.” Plant officials also pledged “to participate fully in the investigation into the cause of the fire.”

The plant is known to include large quantities of volatile ammonium nitrate in its products, which prompted fire crews to pull back after 90 minutes, officials said on Facebook. One unmanned ladder truck has been hooked to a fire hydrant at the site, and it continues to spray water on a rail car that could potentially explode.

Emergency responders will not likely return to the plant site until late Wednesday, officials said at a news conference.

Investigators don’t know what caused the fire, but residents of the area reported hearing two “tremendous” booms.

Firefighters were called to the site about 6:45 p.m. Monday after someone reported a fire at the loading dock. They arrived to find “heavy fire and involvement in the building,” Mayo said in a video posted to Facebook.

“Subsequently the entire building has become consumed by fire and has collapsed in,” he said.

“The risk that is posed by this facility is, it stores ammonium nitrate … There is somewhere between 300 and 600 tons of ammonium nitrate in this facility. … At about 450 degrees, ammonium nitrate becomes pretty unstable. … It can explode.” (Fire officials later clarified those totals to report 500 tons of ammonium nitrate was inside the building and 100 tons was in a rail car outside the building.)

Such an explosion happened in 2013, he said, when chemicals at a Texas fertilizer plant ignited, killing 15 and destroying 120 homes, according to a report in the Fort Worth Star Telegram.

“That explosion involved 240 tons of ammonium nitrate,” Mayo said.

Winston-Salem Communications Director Ed McNeal warned the potential for an explosion “is not hyperbole.”

A drone flying over the flaming building has already confirmed “small explosions” have happened at the site, he said.

Wake Forest University announced it was canceling classes Tuesday and is opening up three campus sites to shelter students who are evacuated from their housing due to the fire.

“The evacuation area does not include on-campus housing, with the exception of Deacon Place, which is within the one-mile evacuation radius,” the university said.

The one-mile evacuation area is considered a “worst case scenario” of what would be impacted should an explosion occur, officials said.

I hope the rain today and the rain forecast for tomorrow minimizes the risk of an explosion.

There are parents whose kids I coach that have been impacted by this.

We have had some wild stuff locally. Pilot was on fire not too long ago. Thank God it is raining today.

We have an explosives plant in the area, it's surround by undeveloped land and when it went up in the 1960s my Dad heard it at lunch. Well, Korea Vet of course, explosions are stock in trade during a war. We were told to expect glass breakage for a 25 mile radius if there were any futher explosions from that fire.

There was another more recently, a primer compound facility completely disappeared when a line was being cleared of a blockage - it was reported by family their son was using a hammer and long rod to force a solidified portion out the end of the transfer pipe. I got that word of mouth from his father where we both worked.

There were no remains to be recovered.

With that track record and the one in TX I would question why any fertilizer plant exists within the city limits of a town at all. It's largely a matter of legacy and I get it that moving would be a major capital investment which many smaller producers simply don't have. They tend to exist on the cash flow as it's a competitive industry.

There may come a time when the explosives plant near here has more value as undeveloped property than income stream as a manufacturer, or now, an incinerator operation for demilled explosives. Which reminds me, there was an explosion there, too. Its back up and running.

Fire won't detonate ammonium nitrate. Pressure can. They may be better off letting it burn out than trying to drown it. The firefighting efforts on a cargo ship led to the Texas City explosion, which was also ammonium nitrate.

quote:

Fire trucks patrolled the mandatory evacuation area early Tuesday, blowing their horns and loudspeakers blasting a warning for people to evacuate as quickly as possible.

This is a perfect example of why everyone should have a "bug out bag".

Unfortunately, too often on the interwebs (especially common among some of the gun-related forums), "bug out bag" seems to become this idea of "I need to have a bag stuffed full of camping supplies, MREs, and guns so that when society collapses/the Russians invade ala Red Dawn/the zombies rise, I'll grab it and go live in the woods for an indeterminant time".

That's not realistic, from a number of different angles. But there's a very real likelihood that there could be a chemical spill, gas leak, fire, or similar "real-world"/"non-apocalyptic" emergency like this fertilizer plant situation that might require you to rapidly evacuate your home with minimal notice.

Having important documents, medication, some clothing and personal items, and some cash in a ready-to-go bag makes that much easier and simpler to accomplish.

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
Fire won't detonate ammonium nitrate.

Even in bulk storage?
How do you believe the ammonium nitrate in Beirut was set off? Reportedly stored (unconfined) fireworks were ignited first, but would they have been capable of producing the initiating pressure?
(That’s a question, BTW, not a challenge to your statement. I am curious and don’t know a lot about how things like ammonium nitrate can be initiated.)

^^^

The degradation of the stores and the containers led to a very unstable "pile", so it took much less to get it to detonate.

Absorption of moisture, chemical reaction to heat, pressure and the contact with other substances, including the packaging is all part of the process of oxidation, just slowly, the "boom" is when that oxidation occurs rapidly. Conditions that are in effect in the "slowly" mode, simply are moving it closer the "rapidly" mode, and then the event that pushes it over the edge, is very small. An errant firework, introduction of water, movement of the pile, a litany of things.

(some of the stuff that gets complex that Uncle Sam taught me about things that go boom)

Massive heat on stores such as in this plant, can provide the pressure and rapid breakdown and chemical reactions. It is likely already un-stable, and no chances should be taken, folks need to not be there.

quote:

Originally posted by Tirod:


There was another more recently, a primer compound facility completely disappeared when a line was being cleared of a blockage - it was reported by family their son was using a hammer and long rod to force a solidified portion out the end of the transfer pipe.

Primer compound packed in a pipe and he decides to use a long rod and strike it with a hammer! Hmmm, where have I heard of that particular arrangement of components before?

quote:

Heard before this was happening that there is a fertilizer shortage and prices are quaduple what they were last year. Many farmers are switching from corn to soybean because corn is a heavy fertilizer user. Cattle farmers say they may not be able to fertilize their hay fields.

This is a big deal.

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
Fire won't detonate ammonium nitrate.

This is incorrect. With enough mass, heating from a fire can cause runaway thermal decomposition in the center of the pile. It's generally referred to as "self confinement". I teach portions of an explosives characterization course that includes a week on thermal testing of explosives.

quote:

Originally posted by sigmonkey:

The degradation of the stores and the containers led to a very unstable "pile", so it took much less to get it to detonate.

Absorption of moisture, chemical reaction to heat, pressure and the contact with other substances, including the packaging is all part of the process of oxidation, just slowly, the "boom" is when that oxidation occurs rapidly. Conditions that are in effect in the "slowly" mode, simply are moving it closer the "rapidly" mode, and then the event that pushes it over the edge, is very small. An errant firework, introduction of water, movement of the pile, a litany of things.

An AN (by itself) explosion is not an oxidation, it is a rapid thermal decomposition of the molecule, resulting in liberation of oxygen (which causes further reactions), NOx (orange/brown smoke),and heat. AN by itself is an oxidizer, but it must be in intimate contact with a fuel to explode in that fashion. That is how ANFO, ANAl, and other purpose-mixed AN explosive formulations function.

A large pile sitting or improperly stored can be worse than pristine material. AN and AN-based mixtures are very hygroscopic (suck up moisture) and tend to get very hard over time. This will hinder heat dissipation from the fire/decomposition reaction during such an event.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

quote:

Heard before this was happening that there is a fertilizer shortage and prices are quaduple what they were last year. Many farmers are switching from corn to soybean because corn is a heavy fertilizer user. Cattle farmers say they may not be able to fertilize their hay fields.

This is a big deal.

Indeed it is. AN and AN-based formulations are still the most widely used fertilizers AND explosive on the planet. Funny how that works.

I was just talking to a teacher at my sons school and he mentioned the fire. We had to go in for a covid test (it was of course positive) so my son’s absences would be excused. This teacher mentioned he was a few miles away from the fire yesterday at his second job when the winds shifted into their direction. He said the fumes and smell were awful and it made him sick. I’m hearing that people are being told to stay inside and avoid going outside unless absolutely necessary.

quote:

Originally posted by stickman428:
I was just talking to a teacher at my sons school and he mentioned the fire. We had to go in for a covid test (it was of course positive) so my son’s absences would be excused. This teacher mentioned he was a few miles away from the fire yesterday at his second job when the winds shifted into their direction. He said the fumes and smell were awful and it made him sick. I’m hearing that people are being told to stay inside and avoid going outside unless absolutely necessary.

A lot of that is NOx, the orange/brown smoke. The human nose is VERY sensitive to it; you never forget a wiff. Also, on contact with moisture in your mucous membranes, it starts to make nitric acid. I once got a face full of it during an explosive synthesis operation. Later, I blew my nose and most of my nose hair came out.

Nice.

Thanks for the information about the stuff.

A little fun math on this one.

Beirut had ~2750 tons of AN and was estimated to have an explosive yield of ~2.7kT of TNT.

This facility has ~600 tons of AN, which would (worst case) give a yield slightly under 0.6kT.

Hiroshima was estimated to be ~15kT.

quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:
Thanks for the information about the stuff.

No problem. This stuff is my JAM!

https://www.foxnews.com/us/fir...plosion-risk-remains

Looking more positive, though not 100% over yet.

don't forget the one in Waco from about 10 years ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...er_Company_explosion


incredible video here -- hard to believe people thought they were safe less than a half mile away:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKj1wyAkIfU

--------------------------

On the fertilizer shortage:


Why Belarus Is Becoming A Headache For Biden

https://www.zerohedge.com/mark...oming-headache-biden

Rocketing fertilizer prices are causing severe unrest in the American agriculture sector, with the Biden administration facing a sharp rebuke from industry leaders. The Agricultural Retailers Association, American Farm Bureau Federation, American Soybean Association, National Association of Wheat Growers, and National Corn Growers Association, the gang of five, have signed a letter condemning US sanctions on Belarussian potassium chloride (potash) for creating an almighty price spike. The letter goes on to explain that potash is a critical input for crop production, with 63% of US corn acres, 48% of its cotton acres, and 19% of its wheat acres requiring potash-based fertilizers.

As a result, it is feared that shortages will lead to less successful harvests, cutting away at farmers’ margins and pushing up food prices for American consumers. The gang of five, as representatives of US agriculture, have called on the government to ease price pressures by removing sanctions on Belarussian potash immediately. In a nod to the gravity of the situation, recent media coverage has confirmed fears that the current crisis may cause sustained price instability.

A recent report by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), for example, highlighted that sky-high fertilizer costs will likely lead to them being used less, resulting in smaller harvests in the future. Low yields would then feed through into higher costs not only for grain-based products such as bread and cereal but also ramping up the feed costs for livestock and poultry. American meat-eaters will certainly be displeased when the price of steak and fried chicken starts to tick up. Sensing the danger, insiders from the fertilizer industry have also raised the alarm over the current shortages of potash.

Svein Tore Holsether, the CEO of Yara International ASA, one of the world’s largest fertilizer producers, recently cast a light on the impact of US sanctions on Belarus on the market.

‘Belarus represents 20% of the global production of potash so clearly they are a significant supplier. If that part [potash] doesn’t make it out of Belarus, then I don’t see anyone ready to turn up the volumes’.


The importance of Belarussian potash to global agriculture, therefore, suggests that the struggles of US farmers look set to persist. Yet if its potash is so important, why is tiny Belarus under sanctions in the first place?

Going back to this summer, the country’s President Alexander Lukashenko attracted global media attention after his forced grounding of a Ryanair flight carrying Roman Protasevich, a journalist. This was the flashpoint that led to Belarus’ sanctioning by the US and his antics have not gone unrecognised by the American agricultural sector. Indeed, in their aforementioned letter to the US government, the gang of five emphasize that they ‘support efforts to hold the Belarussian Government accountable for violations of international norms’.

However, the letter also repeats the argument that the current restrictions on Belarussian potash exports to the US are ‘harming farmers and affording a competitive advantage to farmers in the UK and EU’.

The Biden administration, therefore, is seemingly balancing what it views to be its obligations to Belarus with the interests of American farmers and consumers. To find a way through this impasse, influential voices in the foreign policy community have recommended an American détente with Belarus. Their argument goes that the US could end Belarus’ economic isolation in return for Lukashenko guaranteeing democratic and humanitarian reforms at home.

If this were to be achieved, then exports from the world’s largest potash producer could recommence, lifting the price pressure off American farmers and consumers. Belarussians would also see their living standards increase as their economy reconnected with global markets and the social fabric of their lives would be rethreaded under a new reformist agenda. This is clearly the wish of the US agricultural sector, but would such a détente have the support of the American electorate?

In one sense, it’s difficult to say as the sanctioning of Belarus is not a hot-button political issue in the US, but there is certainly growing concern about fast-rising prices. In a recent poll, 65% of Americans said that they thought that the government was not doing enough to combat inflation and President Biden’s ratings have slumped as a result. With the WSJ noting that high fertilizer prices are likely to feed through into higher prices for basic foodstuffs, and with Americans so concerned about inflation, then sanctions on Belarus seem to be against the wishes of the electorate. Perhaps the current sanctions policy is a result of President Biden being distracted from the Belarussian issue as he faces down Russian aggression towards Ukraine. However, discontent over price inflation could easily mark the undoing of his Presidency and the withdrawal of sanctions on Belarus is an easy route to making that particular problem go away.

“As a result, it is feared that shortages will lead to less successful harvests, cutting away at farmers’ margins and pushing up food prices for American consumers.”
I haven’t the slightest doubt that this is all part of the plan. When you look at the damage these cretin have done to the economy, allowed barely restricted lawlessness, crippled our energy production, intentionally attacked our supply chain, etc etc etc, it falls right into place. The leftists that are controlling that retard in the White House know exact what they are doing. Destabilizing America.

I don’t think the stuff I use comes from NC. However, the effects will ripple throughout the industry. My prices already went up 26%. I may not be able too give customers a fixed price this year.